"Analysis: Obama shows a black can win"

[Costanza]

Analysis: Obama shows a black can win
By NEDRA PICKLER, Associated Press Writer
Fri Jan 4, 1:35 AM ET

Democrat Barack Obama has put to rest the question of whether a black presidential candidate can win in white America.

His victory in 95 percent white Iowa proved that he could appeal across racial lines and even draw women away from Hillary Rodham Clinton despite her push for them to make her the first female president. Next he'll try to build on his record in New Hampshire, which is 96 percent white.

Obama did not appeal so openly to make history as the first black to occupy the Oval Office; he rarely mentioned that he was black.

"You've got to have hope if you are a black man named Obama running for the presidency of the United States of America," Obama said during a late-night campaign stop two days before the caucus. It was one of his rare mentions of what he had to overcome.

Obama's candidacy has been dogged by questions about whether he'd be electable against a Republican. Pressed on that during a campaign stop in New Hampshire over the summer, Obama said his race would be an asset because it would bring blacks to the polls in record numbers and give the Democrats victories in Southern states that have been voting Republican for decades.

"I'm probably the only candidate who, having won the nomination, can actually redraw the political map," Obama said at the time. "I guarantee you African-American turnout, if I'm the nominee, goes up 30 percent around the country, minimum. Young people's percentage of the vote goes up 25-30 percent. So we're in a position to put states in play that haven't been in play since LBJ."

Lyndon Baines Johnson ran for president in 1964 and won in a landslide. But since then the South has turned into a Republican stronghold.

Obama's prediction about black voter turnout can't be tested in Iowa or New Hampshire, but young voters did come to the polls in larger numbers.

Nearly a quarter of Democratic caucus-goers interviewed in the entrance poll were under 30 years old, a jump from 2004. Obama got 57 percent of the vote from the under-30 crowd, compared with just 14 percent for 2004 vice presidential nominee John Edwards and 11 percent for Clinton. Twenty-eight percent of Obama's support came from the under-30 set, according to a survey of voters entering the caucuses by The Associated Press and the television networks.

Obama also won the greatest percentages of independents, first-time caucus-goers, self-identified liberals and, most troubling for Clinton, women. Obama got 35 percent of women voters, compared to 30 percent for Clinton and 23 percent for Edwards. This despite the fact that Clinton focused her campaign on bringing fellow women to the polls.

Rev. Jesse Jackson took note that "this is the 40th year since the assassination of Martin Luther King, Jr. Tonight he would proud of Barack, proud of Iowa and proud of America."

Democratic consultant Jamal Simmons said Obama's victory "proves that America is changing when it comes to race and politics."

"Winning in Iowa is not winning the nomination, but is very significant," Simmons said. "Tonight Barack Obama has made it more true that every black child in America can do whatever they want to if they work hard for it — really."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/caucus_dems_analysis
---------------------------

I wouldn't put my name to an article with that opening sentence... I predicted Huckabee would win and I thought Hillary Clinton would lose, but I wasn't confident enough in Obama's lead to have confidence in him winning outright and settled on the idea that it would be Obama or Edwards, thinking that when push came to shove that 95% white Iowa might go for the change candidate who wasn't a change of color.

Still, though... This proves a black candidate can win about as much a "+" sign on a pregnancy test proves you're going to have a new addition to your household. There's still a lot more that can happen. Nothing has been "put to rest."

I'm going to also post their analysis of Huckabee for those interested, but the headline and first sentence of this one really leapt off the page at me...

 

[Costanza]

Analysis: Evangelicals choose one of own
LIZ SIDOTI, Associated Press Writer
Fri Jan 4, 12:02 AM ET

Evangelical Republicans in Iowa chose one of their own in Mike Huckabee.

"Wherever it ends — and we know where that's going to be — it started here in Iowa," the emboldened candidate proclaimed as he promised more victories in states to come.

But the looming question is whether the Southern Baptist minister turned decade-long Arkansas governor is strong enough to triumph outside friendly Iowa territory, and go the distance to the nomination.

That test begins immediately as Huckabee turns to New Hampshire, where he will run head-on into town meetings full of secular voters, and John McCain, the Arizona senator who has pinned his second White House bid on the state he won in 2000.

New Hampshire holds the nation's first primary in just five days, and Huckabee also will face a rematch there with Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who desperately needs a victory in neighboring New Hampshire to prove his candidacy isn't crippled after an Iowa defeat.

Huckabee's improbable rise from underdog to leader upended the GOP race in the final weeks of the Iowa campaign. His ascent — like his ultimate triumph — was fueled by Christian conservatives who spent a year searching for a candidate to embrace before settling on Huckabee.

He made his religious beliefs and his rock-solid opposition to abortion, gay marriage and gun control central parts of his campaign — and it paid off. Romney, for his part, struggled to overcome skepticism about his Mormon faith and his shifts on positions on issues that cultural and religious conservatives hold dear.

"Values voters spoke loudly tonight in Iowa through Governor Huckabee's candidacy," said Greg Mueller, a GOP strategist and former aide to past conservative presidential candidates Pat Buchanan and Steve Forbes. "But his success was also due to his appeal as an authentic and genuine candidate that connected with middle America."

"Now, he's got to use that bully pulpit to broaden his populist appeal in New Hampshire," Mueller added.

In a poll conducted for The Associated Press of voters entering Iowa's caucuses, Huckabee voters indicated values outranked electability in importance. Six in 10 of his backers said the most important quality in picking a candidate was someone who shared their values, while a third of his supporters said he says what he believes. Fewer than one in 20 said they thought he had the best chance of winning in November.

Faith was a determining factor for many Republican caucus participants.

A significant chunk of Huckabee supporters — eight in 10 — said they are born again or evangelical Christians, compared to less than half of Romney's backers. Nearly two-thirds of Huckabee voters also said it was very important that their candidate share their religious beliefs, compared to about one in five of Romney's.

After a year of tumult, the Iowa race amounted to a classic David vs. Goliath battle, with a pair of former governors in a high-stakes slugfest for the coveted prize.

Huckabee appealed to the emotions of Iowa Republicans, with an I'm-like-you pitch and an emphasis on Christianity. Romney was the practical pick, an accomplished businessman with a powerhouse organization and a seemingly endless supply of money to go the distance.

McCain and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson were in a tight race for third place, both seeking the bronze medal to claim the start of a comeback. Ron Paul, the long-shot Texas congressman with an anti-war, libertarian bent, captured more votes than Rudy Giuliani, the former New York mayor who comfortably led in national polls for the better part of a year.

Iowa had the first say in the most volatile, wide-open GOP nomination race in a half-century, and the state's recent history bodes well for the caucus winner. It has chosen the Republican who eventually secured the nomination in the two most recent contested GOP competitions — George W. Bush in 2000 and Bob Dole in 1996.

But unlike those races, there is no establishment candidate this time. Conservatives spent much of the past year restless; they found flaws in each of the many candidates in the remarkably crowded GOP field.

Huckabee trailed his better-known rivals in money, manpower and polls all year before a surprise autumn surge vaulted him from the back of the crowded pack of candidates to the front. With a bare-bones campaign and modest fundraising, he bet his stellar communication skills and likablity would carry him to a win.

Romney, a self-made multimillionaire who poured more than $17 million into his presidential bid, sunk $7 million into Iowa advertising to emerge as the caucus leader for months. He pinned his hopes on his organizational strength and financial advantage.

In the end, the race for the gold medal in Iowa boiled down to message vs. money — and message won.

 

[JanktheFixer]

I still believe republicans are supporting and voting for Obama to make sure he is the Democratic candidate because when it comes down to it, more than half of the country would not put a black man in office.

 

[DaMack]

I still believe republicans are supporting and voting for Obama to make sure he is the Democratic candidate because when it comes down to it, more than half of the country would not put a black man in office.

hmmm

could be a smart move on there part

but i think that shit gon backfire

 

[Costanza]

I still believe republicans are supporting and voting for Obama to make sure he is the Democratic candidate because when it comes down to it, more than half of the country would not put a black man in office.

Any basis for that belief (about Republican support)? I don't think anybody has questioned the legitimacy of the results like that...

Otherwise, a win in 95% white Iowa is a very promising start.

 

[Costanza]

Another angle on this which I saw coming is Sean Hannity is now arguing that if this country elects a black President, it proves this country cannot be racist.

 

[Costanza]

This Wall Street Journal article is kind of the flip side of what I wanted to discuss earlier, but still centers on the sudden apparent elictability of a black candidate, which was not a real possibility to many 72 hours ago.

This article discussed the black opposition which Obama has already accrued and what it calls "the problem facing many black supporters of Mrs. Clinton: how to oppose a black man anointed a presidential front-runner by an overwhelmingly white state."

It also talks about Obama's effort to turn that opposition into support and says the campaign expects to announce a list of new endorsements from black South Carolinians as early as Tuesday, talking about a fear of "being on the wrong side of history."

Black Leaders in a Quandary
Clinton Backers Are Put In Uncomfortable Spot After Obama's Success
By VALERIE BAUERLEIN and COREY DADE
January 5, 2008

Barack Obama's resounding victory in Iowa is creating intense pressure on black leaders who have backed Hillary Clinton, and it has exposed a generation gap between cautious older black preachers and politicians and their younger counterparts and students.

Early on, Mrs. Clinton lined up support among the established leaders of the civil-rights era, including former U.N. Ambassador Andrew Young and Rep. John Lewis of Atlanta, as well as several members of the Congressional Black Caucus. On the ground in South Carolina, her campaign said she has more than twice as many endorsements as Mr. Obama from black politicians and preachers. Mr. Obama's top black endorsers include Oprah Winfrey and the Rev. Jesse L. Jackson (though Mr. Jackson's wife, Jacqueline, backs Mrs. Clinton).

Now, for many black voters, Mr. Obama's Iowa victory, in a state dominated by white voters, is muting the concern that Mr. Obama couldn't be elected nationwide. The problem facing many black supporters of Mrs. Clinton: how to oppose a black man anointed a presidential front-runner by an overwhelmingly white state.

This is especially pressing in South Carolina, where as many as half of the voters in the Jan. 26 Democratic primary are expected to be black. Last summer, Mr. Obama trailed Mrs. Clinton among South Carolina's black voters, according to a Clemson University poll, but in recent weeks had taken a slight lead. At the same time, the number of undecided blacks has grown, demonstrating the wide-open status of the state's primary.

Black voters are also likely to be critical in the rush of later primaries. Blacks make up 40% of Democratic primary voters in Georgia, a third in Virginia and a quarter in Tennessee. They also make up a fifth of primary voters in New York and 15% in Delaware and Ohio.

Friday, some members of the Obama campaign said they began reaching out to black supporters of Mrs. Clinton in an effort to persuade them to switch sides.

South Carolina State Rep. Todd Rutherford, an early Obama backer, said he started calling black supporters of Mrs. Clinton and John Edwards -- as well as those of Joseph Biden of Delaware and Connecticut's Chris Dodd, who dropped out of the race after poor showings in Iowa. Mr. Rutherford said the campaign expects to announce a list of new endorsements from black South Carolinians as early as Tuesday.

"I tell them, you don't want to be on the wrong side of history," he said. "You don't want to be the one who was standing there telling your people they should vote for Hillary simply because you thought she could win."

South Carolina's top black politician, U.S. House Majority Whip James Clyburn, who hasn't endorsed a candidate, said that "unless something untoward was to occur," Sen. Obama is "going to run away with South Carolina."

"He's the candidate of change, and he demonstrated in Iowa that he can win," Rep. Clyburn said.

Separately, Mr. Obama late Friday picked up the support of the nation's first elected black governor, L. Douglas Wilder. Mr. Wilder was governor of Virginia from 1990 to 1994 and currently is mayor of Richmond.

Black supporters of Mrs. Clinton believe she will hold on to her support. "Not only have we not lost them, they are more energized than ever," said state Sen. Darrell Jackson, one of Mrs. Clinton's political consultants and the pastor of a Columbia, S.C., megachurch.

Mr. Jackson said he rejects the idea that Mr. Obama will get a boost among black South Carolina voters simply because of race. "We want an America where we go in that booth and we don't consider color," Mr. Jackson said. "When we say that race and color and gender should not matter, that also has to apply to African-Americans when they view other African-Americans. I would not want a white South Carolinian to go in the booth and say, 'I have got to vote for one candidate on the basis that they're white.' "

A significant reason for Mrs. Clinton's black support is the relationships her husband forged with black political and religious leaders during his tenure as governor of Arkansas and in the White House. Today, many prominent black politicians, top Democratic Party officials and strategists owe a measure of their success to the Clintons.

Mr. Young, the civil-rights leader and former Atlanta mayor who has endorsed Mrs. Clinton, said in an interview Friday that Mr. Obama has "all the raw materials" and would be his candidate of the future, but only after Mrs. Clinton.

Mr. Young said he still believes Ms. Clinton is the most prepared candidate and "the only one tough enough to stand up to the assault that is inevitable in the general [election]." Mr. Young said the Iowa results were "tremendous" due to the unexpectedly large turnout, particularly among younger voters. "Unfortunately, since a lot of them are young people, they tend to get what we used to call 'Freedom High,"' he said. "They get excited about something but can't sustain it. I hope that this is sustainable."

Mr. Lewis, the congressman, was out of the country and couldn't be reached Friday. His spokesman affirmed his continued support for Mrs. Clinton.

In some black organizations and churches there are signs that Mr. Obama's surge is creating divisions between political leaders and their supporters. Lucille Whipper, a Clinton supporter and current leader of South Carolina's Woman's Baptist Educational and Missionary Convention, said she worried that it will be "difficult for me to keep the influence I have and not affect my validity in all the other areas that I work. We have to be very careful that we don't develop in the minds of others that we are not for youth, we are not for change."

The Rev. Joseph Darby, whose Morris Brown AME Church in Charleston, S.C., has hosted most of the Democratic candidates at Sunday services but who has not endorsed a candidate, said some friends who chose Mrs. Clinton "are having stomach aches."

"How do you stop an obviously electable candidate who happens to be of African-American descent, and how do you do it without ticking off black folk?" the Rev. Darby said.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119949950505869431.html

 

[Costanza]

Another angle on this which I saw coming is Sean Hannity is now arguing that if this country elects a black President, it proves this country cannot be racist.

And that sentiment is now expressed in an AP article on Yahoo... You're going to be hearing this shit before too long...

Does Obama's win show US is colorblind?
By SHARON COHEN, AP National Writer
Sat Jan 5, 6:21 PM ET

Ray Ballentine was waiting for a sign to throw his support to Barack Obama. And when Obama coasted to victory in Iowa's caucuses, there it was — evidence that the senator had the broad racial appeal to get to the White House.

"I did have some reservations before, but he certainly got my vote now," Ballentine said, eating a brisket and roast turkey salad with hush puppies at The Q Shack, a barbecue joint in Raleigh, N.C. "I was sort of undecided, but I feel like he can win the presidency."

Obama's convincing win in Thursday's caucuses in Iowa — a state with just a smattering of minority voters — demonstrated the Illinois senator's support crosses racial lines and bolstered the notion that America is receptive to electing its first black president.

Whether Obama's appeal stretches beyond the farm fields of Iowa will become clear over the next month as the freshman senator faces a series of tests on different political terrain — beginning with Tuesday's primary in New Hampshire, another overwhelmingly white state.

But for Ballentine, who had been wavering between Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Obama, Iowa was a tipping point. Like many black voters, he says, he was looking for proof that Obama could garner white support. Yet he wonders if the rest of the nation is as willing as Iowa to embrace the idea of a black president.

"I'm not really sure if they're ready, you know," he said. "I think it's time. He's speaking about change, and certainly that would be a change for this country. A change for the world."

Polls have indicated the vast majority of Americans say they would support a black candidate seeking the White House. A Gallup survey conducted in early 2007 found only 6 percent of men and 5 percent of women said they would not vote for a black presidential candidate — a seismic political shift from 50 years ago when more than half those surveyed felt that way.

Though Obama's win captured headlines and gave his campaign fresh credibility, he is not the first black candidate to triumph in a Democratic presidential contest.

In 1988, civil rights leader Jesse Jackson, making his second bid for the White House, piled up Democratic primary wins in Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Virginia and the District of Columbia along with caucus victories in South Carolina and Michigan.

But Obama's roots and resume — as well as his campaign — are unlike other black candidates who've run for president. The son of a father from Kenya and a mother from Kansas, Obama was just a child during the dawn of the civil rights movement, grew up in Hawaii and Indonesia and has not made race the centerpiece of his candidacy.

"Obama is running in a way that a lot of white voters feel very sympathetic," said Merle Black, an Emory University political scientist. "He doesn't make them feel guilty. He's not running a Jesse Jackson campaign or an Al Sharpton campaign. He's positioned himself to be a candidate who happens to be black, rather than a black candidate."

In a far different way, the Republicans have their own presidential candidate with an unusual back story: Mike Huckabee, who won the GOP caucuses in Iowa with heavy support from Christian evangelicals, is an ordained Baptist preacher.

But it's Huckabee's years as an Arkansas governor, not his time in the pulpit that have taken him this far, said David Bositis, an analyst at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, a black think tank. "If he had been a minister and never a governor, especially a governor who was re-elected ... he wouldn't be in this situation," he says.

For some voters watching Obama, his campaign — and his Iowa success — are simply reflections of changing times.

"America's becoming more open-minded," said Mark Jambretz, a 36-year-old sales director at an Internet company in San Francisco. "I as a Republican can say that, and we need to open our eyes to people representing all ethnicities."

Still, he said he could envision some "radical groups" taking violent steps against a black candidate or president.

That also worries Ballentine, the 53-year-old North Carolina electric utility field technician.

"I think he will certainly need to beef up his security, because I think there's these wackos that will go to any extent to make sure he doesn't win," he said. "It's sad to say that, but I think it's a possibility. Some people just don't want to see that happen."

Obama received Secret Service protection last spring — the earliest ever for any presidential candidate. He acknowledged at the time that some of the threats against him were racially motivated.

Some voters, though, say Obama's race may not even be that much of a factor in his campaign.

"I think that America wants a lot of change. I don't necessarily know if it matters that he's black or not — just that they want something different," said John Beckner, while waiting for a table with his daughters outside Matt's Big Breakfast, a diner in the shadow of downtown Phoenix.

Beckner, a 34-year-old systems engineer who is white and married to a black woman, said he knows not all Americans will be able to look beyond Obama's race. "I'm sure he's going to alienate some people that just aren't ready for that, or think he has special interests or a minority agenda," he said. "... But the thirst for change is so strong ... that would probably be enough to get him elected."

Standing nearby with her husband and son, Nancy Bergkamp said it's experience that counts and Obama doesn't have it.

"He's out there, `Oh yeah, let's change, let's do something different and all that.' But I think he's kind of a flash in the pan at this point. I think he's very unproven," said Bergkamp, 51, a registered Republican. "The fact that he's black is somewhat of an afterthought. Maybe I'm naive, but I would like to think we're beyond that."

Maxine Siegler, a 54-year-old flight attendant from Miami, also said while Obama's victory is a good sign that the nation is ready to elect a black president, "I don't think this particular African-American is up for the job. I think we have a mess, somebody has got to fix it but I don't think he's the right person."

Collette Lease, 32, an education assistant from Minneapolis, has reservations, too. While she said she's excited a black candidate has the chance to take the White House, she's not sold on Obama.

"He gives a great speech, but just because you can give a great speech doesn't mean you can run the country," she said.

Others, though, say Obama's candidacy is groundbreaking and a sign that America is changing — even in the South.

"We can all go back to our history books and a couple of years ago something like this would never have happened," said JaQuinda Harkness, a 20-year-old College of Charleston student strolling during lunch hour in the South Carolina city's historic district. "For this to be happening this year, this century and for me to living in it is amazing."

Sivi Bobbitt, a 35-year-old graduate student at Clark Atlanta University, is enthused too and believes Obama "wants the country to be the melting pot it's supposed to be."

She also thinks Obama's biracial background may make him more palatable to white voters — especially younger ones who tend to be more open-minded.

"How our society is now, the younger generation doesn't see color anymore," she said. "It's not a white thing. It's not a black thing. We don't think like that anymore."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080105/ap_po/a_black_president;_ylt=Al0IHEyrKoPqMIiLjQKThBhh24cA
--------------------------------

That second to last part is so stupid I can't believe it was printed:

"She also thinks Obama's biracial background may make him more palatable to white voters — especially younger ones who tend to be more open-minded. "

If they're so open-minded... why would they need a mixed racial background to make him more palatable???

The Great White Guilt Catharsis of 2008... "Forget an apology for slavery, we can elect a black president and that'll prove how different it is now."

 

[Costanza]

I still believe republicans are supporting and voting for Obama to make sure he is the Democratic candidate because when it comes down to it, more than half of the country would not put a black man in office.

hmmm

could be a smart move on there part

but i think that shit gon backfire

Bump for Kamala

 

[Walter Panov]

He's half white