AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, match-up, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates each game of the 2009 season one play at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning their division and making the playoffs.
While AccuScore forecasts wins, losses and the probability the team has of making the playoffs, it also lists each team’s opponents’ combined winning percentage in 2008 (OPP ’08) and the 2008 winning percentage of their 2009 opponents (OPP ’09) because schedule strength is often the key determinant for predicting when a team will improve or take a step back from last season.
NFC Playoff Chances W L Playoffs Wild card Win Div OPP '08 OPP '09
Minnesota Vikings* 10.4 5.6 73.5% 22.7% 50.7% 51% 42%
Arizona Cardinals* 9.0 7.0 65.2% 3.5% 61.7% 53% 44%
New York Giants* 10.1 5.9 65.1% 28.3% 36.7% 51% 53%
Green Bay Packers 9.7 6.3 60.7% 26.7% 34.0% 50% 43%
Philadelphia Eagles 9.8 6.2 60.6% 29.8% 30.8% 53% 54%
Dallas Cowboys 9.6 6.4 54.8% 27.7% 27.1% 50% 52%
New Orleans Saints* 8.4 7.6 41.8% 7.9% 33.9% 50% 56%
Atlanta Falcons 8.2 7.8 38.0% 6.5% 31.5% 47% 59%
Carolina Panthers 8.0 8.0 33.8% 6.5% 27.3% 49% 59%
Chicago Bears 8.5 7.5 33.8% 18.6% 15.2% 48% 41%
Seattle Seahawks 7.1 9.0 22.6% 3.7% 18.9% 50% 46%
San Francisco 49ers 7.0 9.0 22.2% 3.6% 18.6% 45% 44%
Washington Redskins 7.5 8.5 16.8% 11.4% 5.4% 48% 49%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6.2 9.8 10.2% 2.8% 7.3% 48% 58%
St. Louis Rams 3.9 12.1 0.9% 0.2% 0.7% 53% 46%
Detroit Lions 3.9 12.1 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 56% 47%
*Highest Probability of Winning Their Division
While AccuScore forecasts wins, losses and the probability the team has of making the playoffs, it also lists each team’s opponents’ combined winning percentage in 2008 (OPP ’08) and the 2008 winning percentage of their 2009 opponents (OPP ’09) because schedule strength is often the key determinant for predicting when a team will improve or take a step back from last season.
NFC Playoff Chances W L Playoffs Wild card Win Div OPP '08 OPP '09
Minnesota Vikings* 10.4 5.6 73.5% 22.7% 50.7% 51% 42%
Arizona Cardinals* 9.0 7.0 65.2% 3.5% 61.7% 53% 44%
New York Giants* 10.1 5.9 65.1% 28.3% 36.7% 51% 53%
Green Bay Packers 9.7 6.3 60.7% 26.7% 34.0% 50% 43%
Philadelphia Eagles 9.8 6.2 60.6% 29.8% 30.8% 53% 54%
Dallas Cowboys 9.6 6.4 54.8% 27.7% 27.1% 50% 52%
New Orleans Saints* 8.4 7.6 41.8% 7.9% 33.9% 50% 56%
Atlanta Falcons 8.2 7.8 38.0% 6.5% 31.5% 47% 59%
Carolina Panthers 8.0 8.0 33.8% 6.5% 27.3% 49% 59%
Chicago Bears 8.5 7.5 33.8% 18.6% 15.2% 48% 41%
Seattle Seahawks 7.1 9.0 22.6% 3.7% 18.9% 50% 46%
San Francisco 49ers 7.0 9.0 22.2% 3.6% 18.6% 45% 44%
Washington Redskins 7.5 8.5 16.8% 11.4% 5.4% 48% 49%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6.2 9.8 10.2% 2.8% 7.3% 48% 58%
St. Louis Rams 3.9 12.1 0.9% 0.2% 0.7% 53% 46%
Detroit Lions 3.9 12.1 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 56% 47%
*Highest Probability of Winning Their Division
