2024 Campaign Deathwatch

[Costanza]

The GOP's Iowa caucus is 50 days away. It surprised me to hear "if DeSantis drops out" discussed so seriously on Meet The Press this Sunday, in this timestamped clip:



(I think DeSantis might drop out if he comes in a distant third or worse in Iowa but would be shocked to see it before then. I think the GOP primary top three will still end up as Trump far ahead of DeSantis and then Ramaswamy third, and that Haley's rise is media hype. We shall see.)

BAD SIGN FOR DeSANTIS — A new WaPo/Monmouth poll has Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS down to fifth place in New Hampshire, as DONALD TRUMP maintains his big lead and NIKKI HALEY rises solidly into second, Scott Clement, Dan Balz and Emily Guskin report.​

​

BETTER SIGN FOR DeSANTIS — He converted 10 notable former backers of Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.) in South Carolina to endorse him, including two state reps, AP’s Meg Kinnard reports from Columbia.​

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WHAT WENT WRONG — “‘Get Me the F--king Tape’: How Ron DeSantis’s ‘Build the Wall’ Ad Put Him on the Outs With Trump,” Vanity Fair: “During his 2018 gubernatorial bid, DeSantis and his wife, CASEY, apparently mocked the campaign spot behind the scenes. As one source tells Matt Dixon, in an excerpt of his new book, Swamp Monsters, it ‘got back to Trump.’”​

​

WHO IS ON WHOM'S HEELS— Haley rejected DeSantis’ offer of a one-on-one debate on Fox News, per Florida Politics. Haley, who has jumped in the polls in recent weeks, has experience in the spotlight—and it could be crucial if she ends up in a head-to-head race with Trump. While running for governor in 2010, Haley faced unproven accusations that she had cheated on her husband. But her campaign successfully turned the attacks on their head, using them to attack Haley’s male opponents in the gubernatorial race as a “taxpayer-funded fraternity party” that had “come crumbling down,” Semafor details.​

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CAMPAIGN DEATHWATCH — “Vivek Ramaswamy struggles to gain traction with Iowa Republicans as critics question his path ahead,” by AP’s Margery A. Beck and Adriana Gomez Licon in Council Bluffs, Iowa: “While [VIVEK] RAMASWAMY is packing his schedule with stops across Iowa, he has failed to move up in the 2024 Republican primary race and is increasingly at risk of becoming an afterthought.”​

 

[Non-StopJFK2TAB]

None of those losers had any chance of winning the Republican Party nomination. Republican voters are on a death march, and the old guy who’s leading the race, he’s exactly what they need. This country doesn’t need a Franklin Pierce, it needs a James Buchanan.

 

[Costanza]

None of those losers had any chance of winning the Republican Party nomination. Republican voters are on a death march, and the old guy who’s leading the race, he’s exactly what they need. This country doesn’t need a Franklin Pierce, it needs a James Buchanan.

I would edit to say "None of those losers had any chance of winning the Republican Party nomination-- this time."

DeSantis was first in line to take over for Trump-- When and how he loses could determine if he is a future GOP nominee or a future US president.

 

[Non-StopJFK2TAB]

I would edit to say "None of those losers had any chance of winning the Republican Party nomination-- this time."

DeSantis was first in line to take over for Trump-- When and how he loses could determine if he is a future GOP nominee or a future US president.

Desantis has children. Like elementary aged kids. Talking about the apocalypse is only cool when you don’t give a hoot about them.

 

[nawlinsn931]

So basically we're fucked either way

 

[Lexx Diamond]

So basically we're fucked either way

Yeah man. As usual.

 

[easy_b]

I would edit to say "None of those losers had any chance of winning the Republican Party nomination-- this time."

DeSantis was first in line to take over for Trump-- When and how he loses could determine if he is a future GOP nominee or a future US president.

Republicans are in a pickle because the election from earlier in November sort of proves they have some issues a lot of issues. Virginia was a big giveaway on what’s going to happen next year. Trump is going to make their lives worse next election. Most likely he is going to be under some criminal conviction by the summer of next year.

 

[Costanza]

 

[Costanza]

The Big Money Talks​

Well, not a great day to be Ron DeSantis. The Florida governor has struggled mightily to convince the biggest GOP donors in the world that he can take down former President Donald Trump (and his populist, protectionist policies) for the Republican nomination and win the White House next year. DeSantis took a giant garbage can to the head (think Sonny Corleone going after his brother-in-law in “The Godfather”) on Tuesday with news that the massive donor network founded by billionaire industrialist brothers Charles and the late David Koch would channel massive financial and grass-roots support to former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who used a recent strong debate and uptick in polls to start hoovering up more Wall Street support.

In a memo, the group Americans for Prosperity noted it had never endorsed in a presidential race before. In addition to all the horse-race stuff (Haley out-polls Trump vs. President Joe Biden in key states), AFP cited what it and most big GOP donors really care about: lower taxes, less regulation, less powerful unions, lower tariffs and the like. It’s EASY TO FORGET a lot of these really rich donors don’t care so much about Trump’s toxicity on many issues: They care about policies that make them more money or cost them more money.

Haley will now have a ton of TV ad support from AFP’s super PAC and grassroots assistance in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina (home turf) and other early primary states to try to knock out DeSantis and Chris Christie and galvanize the non-Trump vote. One GOP donor/Haley supporter told your columnist last night: “It’s huge. Huge. They are going to spend a ton and their national network will activate a lot more donors and people who will vote for her. As for DeSantis, one close campaign observer texted: “He's been dry-brined and buttered and is about halfway roasted. Unless some donor ex machina appears, he's done.” Tonight, Gov. DeSantis debates Gov. Gavin Newsom, the California Democrat, on Fox’s “Hannity” show. That’s unfortunate timing coming on the heels of the AFP announcement. A weak performance by DeSantis could send even more major-donor money scurrying Haley’s way. Real talk, though: The AFP spent tens of millions of dollars earlier this year to dent Trump, and it did nothing. But at least the GOP now has the makings of a backup plan. Dems don’t. The Messenger Business: What Haley's big-money boost means Plus: The late, great, Charlie Munger mailchi.mp

 

[Dr. Truth]

Trump will be President guaranteed. I guarantee it. If I’m wrong ban me for a week

 

[God-Of-War-420]

Nikki is dangerous because she seems downright competent and sane compared to her peers when up on the debate stage(when in reality she's damn near as insane in some ways) I'm not sure she's strong enough to be the nominee but she would make a helluva vice Presidential candidate for trump and would destroy the charisma black hole known as Kamala Harris in a debate.

 

[God-Of-War-420]

Trump will be President guaranteed. I guarantee it. If I’m wrong ban me for a week

If the Dems run Biden/Harris Vs a Trump/Haley ticket it'll be a bloodbath. Democrats are tired of weak candidates and I fear a lot of people will just stay home. Those trump boys are going to mobilize bigly, their entire movement boils down to this one election.

This is not good

 

[Dr. Truth]

If the Dems run Biden/Harris Vs a Trump/Haley ticket it'll be a bloodbath. Democrats are tired of weak candidates and I fear a lot of people will just stay home. Those trump boys are going to mobilize bigly, their entire movement boils down to this one election.

This is not good

Biden won’t nor can’t win.

 

[Race Harley]

The Koch Brothers are throwing their financial weight behind Nikki Haley and DeSantis has Disney waiting for him to fall so they can bury him in a Florida swamp so shit's not looking good. Plus, Trump is so far ahead in the polls that if he can survive the indictments long enough, it will be him and Biden going neck to neck.

 

[Costanza]

Biden won’t nor can’t win.

So, since he will not step aside, you support efforts to primary him?

 

[kidmegaii]

If the Dems run Biden/Harris Vs a Trump/Haley ticket it'll be a bloodbath. Democrats are tired of weak candidates and I fear a lot of people will just stay home. Those trump boys are going to mobilize bigly, their entire movement boils down to this one election.

This is not good

Prop up weak ass candidates then blame voters when shit don't work out.

 

[God-Of-War-420]

 

[Costanza]

So, since he will not step aside, you support efforts to primary him?

I wasn't intending for Biden to be a part of this discussion but look what is trending right now.



Goddamn.

 

[Costanza]

She asks him FOUR TIMES if he will drop out if he doesn't finish top 2 in Iowa or if he will even stay in that long.

 

[Costanza]

We hardly knew ye.

 

[Costanza]

 

[Costanza]

The exit of Roe, a veteran Republican operative, comes as DeSantis loyalists have seized control of the governor’s embattled political operation in the final weeks before the Iowa caucuses.

Roe announced his resignation on social media Saturday within hours of the Washington Post publishing an account of the turmoil within Never Back Down. In the story, Never Back Down chairman and interim CEO Scott Wagner was quoted attributing recent departures of some of Roe’s top lieutenants to “numerous unauthorized leaks containing false information.” Wagner later revised his statement after a lawyer for the employees claimed his assertions were categorically false, according to the Post. Both statements were included in the story.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/17/politics/chief-strategist-for-pro-desantis-super-pac-resigns/index.html

 

[Costanza]

 

[easy_b]

 

[mailboxpimp]

None of those losers had any chance of winning the Republican Party nomination. Republican voters are on a death march, and the old guy who’s leading the race, he’s exactly what they need. This country doesn’t need a Franklin Pierce, it needs a James Buchanan.

Trump is gonna win

 

[godofwine]

Trump is gonna win

The only thing that could stop Trump from winning the nomination of the Republican Party is his death. I don't know if I'm hoping for his death or hoping for jail. Probably hoping for death because I don't think that they would ever give him jail

Thing is, I think they're going to be fewer people who vote for Trump then last time, and by a lot. He doesn't have nearly as many followers as he thinks he does

 

[mailboxpimp]

The only thing that could stop Trump from winning the nomination of the Republican Party is his death. I don't know if I'm hoping for his death or hoping for jail. Probably hoping for death because I don't think that they would ever give him jail

Thing is, I think they're going to be fewer people who vote for Trump then last time, and by a lot. He doesn't have nearly as many followers as he thinks he does

I hope he wins‍

 

[godofwine]

I hope he wins‍

So, you're one of them.

 

[DC_Dude]

 

[Costanza]

I'd be surprised if this is true...

 

[Costanza]

January 15


Iowa Caucus - Republican

January 23

New Hampshire Primary – Democratic and Republican

February 3


South Carolina Primary - Democratic

February 6

Nevada Primary - Democratic

February 8

Nevada Caucus - Republican

Virgin Islands Caucus - Republican

February 24

South Carolina Primary - Republican

February 27

Michigan Primary – Democratic and Republican

March 2

Idaho Caucus - Republican

Missouri Caucus - Republican

March 3

District of Columbia Primary – Republican

March 4

North Dakota Caucus – Republican

March 5 (Super Tuesday)

 

[Costanza]

My predictions:

January 15- Iowa Caucus- Trump/Haley/DeSantis/Christie/Ramaswamy
January 23- New Hampshire Primary- Trump/Haley/Christie/DeSantis/Ramaswamy
January 24- DeSantis and Christie drop out
February 8- Nevada Caucus - Trump/Haley/Ramaswamy
February 24- South Carolina Primary - Trump/Haley/Ramaswamy
February 25- Haley drops out
February 26 through the convention- Ramaswamy stays in but Trump is considered the official nominee

 

[Costanza]

Ramaswamy unravels​

Vivek Ramaswamy staffers have begun looking for work elsewhere. He didn't qualify for tomorrow's final televised debate before the Iowa caucuses. And he won't even be on the ballot for the Illinois GOP primary.

• Why it matters: Ramaswamy jumped to political prominence with an anti-establishment, Trump-friendly message. But now his long-shot campaign shows signs of unraveling, Axios' Sophia Cai reports.

Ramaswamy — at 38, the youngest in the presidential race — has poured his energy into trying to pull off a strong showing in Iowa next Monday night.

• The wealthy biotech entrepreneur has predicted he'll finish no worse than third — above either Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis, and behind former President Trump, the front-runner.
• Polls in Iowa show Ramaswamy is running fourth. Beyond Iowa, the picture for him is unclear. His campaign says he's skipping Illinois' GOP primary on March 19 as a strategic decision.

What we're hearing: GOP officials tell Axios they've received job inquiries from multiple Ramaswamy campaign staffers since early November.

• One offered to start work Feb. 1 — after the Iowa and New Hampshire contests, but before Super Tuesday on March 5, when 16 states hold Republican contests.

Ramaswamy — like former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who has focused on New Hampshire's Jan. 23 primary — hasn't reached the 10% mark in national polls required to qualify for CNN's Republican debate in Des Moines tomorrow (9 p.m. ET).

• Haley and DeSantis will debate. Trump qualified but, as with previous GOP debates, he'll skip it and counterprogram with a town hall on Fox News.

Over the holidays, Trump speculated about being endorsed by Ramaswamy.

• "He will, I am sure, Endorse me. But Vivek is a good man, and is not done yet!" Trump posted on TruthSocial.

Reality check: Ramaswamy has the personal cash to keep going if he wants to. Last week he sold $33 million in stock in a biotech company he founded.
Ramaswamy's campaign disputes that he faces a reckoning.

• "The energy we're seeing on the ground in Iowa is electric," communications director Tricia McLaughlin told Axios. "The mainstream media may be quick to write our obituary, but that's because they're oblivious to the facts on the ground."

https://www.axios.com/2024/01/09/ramaswamy-campaign-signs-unraveling-2024

 

[Costanza]

 

[Costanza]