2019 NBA offseason: Best case scenario for the league?

Rembrandt Brown

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The class is headlined by four bona fide superstars in Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Kyrie Irving, and Jimmy Butler. Below them are some legitimate All-Stars in Klay Thompson, Kemba Walker, and Khris Middleton.

1. Kevin Durant, SF/PF, Golden State Warriors
Perennial MVP candidate and one of the best players in the league. It seems like his time in Golden State is coming to a close and that he’s headed to New York. Jazz chance of signing: 0%

2. Kawhi Leonard, SF, Toronto Raptors
Trading for Kawhi may have already paid itself off for the Raptors, even if he decides to leave this summer. He’s an MVP candidate an arguably the best two-way player in the league. Does he still desire to bolt to LA, or has Toronto done enough to convince him to stay? Jazz chance of signing: 0%

3. Kyrie Irving, PG, Boston Celtics
Great point guard that’s still only 27 years old. His time in Boston was.... interesting. I’m not so sure he stays based on his comments as the season progressed. I’m guessing he goes to New York or Brooklyn. Jazz chance of signing: 0%

4. Kemba Walker, PG, Charlotte Hornets
The wild card. I don’t feel like anyone has a good pulse on this situation. It would appear he’s ready to contribute to a winning team and have a shot at a title, but where exactly will he go? I think everyone with max space will be in the running. Jazz chance of signing: 15%

5. Klay Thompson, SG, Golden State Warriors
Some reports lately suggest that Klay is sick of only having leftovers to work with offensively. I don’t know how much truth there is to that. Assuming Durant leaves, I highly doubt Klay leaves the Warriors. If he does, LA seems like the most likely destination. Jazz chance of signing: 3%

6. Tobias Harris, PF, Philadelphia 76ers
Rumored to have expressed potential interest in playing for the Jazz in the past, I’m sure Tobias is near the top of Dennis Lindsey and Justin Zanik’s free agency list. I’m also sure that the Jazz won’t be the only suitors. The 76ers are committed to keeping him as well, so he has a big decision upcoming. Jazz chance of signing: 20%

7. Jimmy Butler, SF, Philadelphia 76ers
Utah could become a sneaky FA destination for Jimmy Butler. He wants to win and he wants to get paid. Not everyone will be able to offer that, but the Jazz can. The most likely scenario seems to be him remaining in Philadelphia. Jazz chance of signing: 10%

8. Khris Middleton, SF, Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks are still playing games and could be for a while. They will be very motivated to keep this core together. I doubt their new all-star Middleton will be packing his bags anytime soon. Jazz chance of signing: 5%

9. D’Angelo Russell, PG, Brooklyn Nets
Russell’s free agency should be particularly interesting to monitor, especially if Kyrie selects the Nets. Certainly they can’t sign Kyrie and keep Joe Harris, Chris LeVert, Spencer Dinwiddie, AND DLo. Russell would be the most expensive to keep, so they could decide to let their RFA go. Plus, it would appear that Russell and Donovan Mitchell are good friends off the court. Jazz chance of signing: 19%

10. Kristaps Porzingis, C, Dallas Mavericks
I don’t think Mark Cuban traded for Porzingis without intending to extend his contract. I also doubt that Utah would have much interest with Rudy on the roster and if you look at Kristaps’ recent news cycles. Jazz chance of signing: 0%

11. Nikola Vucevic, C, Orlando Magic
How is Vucevic seen around the league? I honestly have no idea. He made his first all-star game and lead the Magic to their first playoff birth in years. Will he get a max contract and who might be willing to offer that? Certainly not the Jazz, but someone could. Jazz chance of signing: 0%

12. DeMarcus Cousins, PF/C, Golden State Warriors
High risk potentially high reward. I highly doubt that DL and co. will be calling Cousins, but I think someone will be willing to gamble on the big man. Jazz chance of signing: 0%

13. Malcolm Brogdon, PG/SG, Milwaukee Bucks
Restricted free agency is always difficult to project. Brogdon was an important piece on the team with the most wins this year. It’s well known that the Bucks intend to keep as much of this group together as they can. Will they put their money where their mouth is? Because you might pry him away if you overpay the young guard. Jazz chance of signing: 18%

14. Al Horford, C, Boston Celtics
Horford has a player option for over 30 million next year. At 32 years old there’s no way he gets that much money. I’m guessing he opts in unless he wants a long term contract. Jazz chance of signing: 0%

15. Julius Randle, PF, New Orleans Pelicans
Randle bet on himself with a 1+1 last summer and it will almost certainly pay off. I’m sure New Orleans would like to keep him if they can. What will Randle’s priorities be this summer? It feels like he could go just about anywhere. Jazz chance of signing: 9%.

16. Bojan Bogdanovic, SF, Indiana Pacers
Bogdanovic was having a really good season before Victor Oladipo went down with an injury. Bojan helped pick up some of that production loss and ended up having a great season. One that will certainly give him a raise this summer. I think he could be had if you are willing to offer more than others. Jazz chance of signing: 21%.

17. Marc Gasol, C, Toronto Raptors
Like Horford, Gasol has a player option that is likely to be picked up for next season. If he opts in, he will make over $25 million next season. I think he’ll stay in Toronto for that last big year. He’s also probably not ready to be a full time backup behind Gobert. Jazz chance of signing: 0%.

18. Brook Lopez, C, Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks have a lot of big free agents this summer, with Lopez joining Middleton and Brogdon. I’m still shocked that they got Lopez for only $3 million this season. He has transitioned to the modern NBA better than possibly any other player in the league. I’m not sure he’s a match for Utah and I think he stays in Milwaukee. Jazz chance of signing: 0%

19. Paul Millsap, PF, Denver Nuggets
Denver holds all the cards on Millsap’s team option of $30 million next season. They may decide to move on if they feel like they can get a higher impact player at a greater position of need. Could the Jazz see a Millsap homecoming? His age doesn’t match the timeline, but his play style fits well next to Rudy. Jazz chance of signing: 5%

20. JJ Redick, SG, Philadelphia 76ers
The sharpshooter has been an important piece for Philadelphia’s recent success. But that luxury tax bill will be HUGE if they bring back even just Butler and Harris once Ben Simmons is up for an extension. Can they afford to keep Redick as well? Lindsey has expressed the need to add snipers. Redick certainly fits that description. Jazz chance of signing: 14%

21. Danny Green, SG, Toronto Raptors
Green looked like a renewed and re-energized player during his time in Toronto this season. He three point shot returned in force by hitting over 45% from 3 on the season. He felt like a throw in during the Kawhi Leonard trade, but he was key for the Raptors this year. Like Redick, he fits that “sniper” mold the Jazz could be targeting to place next to Donovan Mitchell. Jazz chance of signing: 18%

22. Nikola Mirotic, PF, Milwaukee Bucks
Mirotic could be the odd man out once the dust settles in Milwaukee. With how many free agents they have, he may be finding yet another new NBA home. He’s been involved in rumors to Utah a few times now. How much truth were there to those? Would the 27 year old be enough of an upgrade on offense to be worth it? Jazz chance of signing: 13%

23. DeAndre Jordan, C, New York Knicks
He’s obviously not coming to Utah anytime soon. It’s also unlikely he makes the $23 million he made last season ever again. But he’s still a double-double machine and certainly someone will find good use for him. Jazz chance of signing: 0%

24. Thaddeus Young, PF, Indiana Pacers
I’ve personally liked Young as a fit on the Jazz for some time. He had a good year for the Pacers and they’d like to bring him back if they can. Honestly, the Jazz and Pacers have a very similar looking summer ahead of them. Jazz chance of signing: 5%

25. Patrick Beverley, PG, Los Angeles Clippers
Beverley is commonly referred to as a great target for Utah. But they aren’t going to be the only suitors. His tenacious defense and 40+% from three are incredibly valuable. The Clippers have big plans for this summer and a point-guard-in-waiting in Gilgeous-Alexander, so I think Beverley is very attainable. Jazz chance of signing: 25%

26. Rudy Gay, SF/PF, San Antonio Spurs
It feels like Rudy Gay has been around forever. His transition to the PF position has gone very well for San Antonio. He could be a very interesting addition in Quin Snyder’s offense. Like Joe Johnson a few years ago, I could see the Jazz overpaying a little to bring someone like Gay to Utah. Jazz chance of signing: 12%

27. Ricky Rubio, PG, Utah Jazz
The ever-polarizing Rubio. His character and leadership are absolutely loved. He’s a fantastic player off the court with his community involvement. However, his on court production is not an ideal fit for Utah’s lineup. With Rudy at center, you need more shooting around him than Ricky can provide. That being said, I don’t think it’s out of the question for Utah to bring him back. Jazz chance of signing: 11%

28. Marcus Morris, PF, Boston Celtics
When available, Marcus Morris has been one of the Celtics better players the past couple years. He could provide some much needed floor spacing for the Jazz. I’m curious to see how much Morris gets and where he lands. Something tells me it probably won’t be Utah. Jazz chance of signing: 4%

29. Jeremy Lamb, SG, Charlotte Hornets
Lamb quietly had a good year for the Hornets. At only 26 years old you can be hopeful in some progression as well, especially under a coaching staff like Snyder’s. He’s a good not great shooter and a good not great creator. He would intrigue me if slotted alongside Donovan Mitchel in the Jazz backcourt. Jazz chance of signing: 12%

30. Darren Collison, PG, Indiana Pacers
Apparently I like the Pacers, because like Bogdanovic and Young, I like Collison’s potential fit in Utah. If the Jazz are unable to land a marque free agent and can’t trade for an upgrade at point guard, they could do much worse than Collison. Consistent and predictable, you pretty much know what you’ll get from him every year. Jazz chance of signing: 10%
 
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My thoughts on what's best for the league as far as the top 5 free agents:

1. Durant- Worst case scenario is he stays with the Warriors. They are good enough to win championships without him and we don't get to see Steph Curry or Draymond Green shine with him there. He needs to head east. It doesn't particularly matter where. Probably Brooklyn so he doesn't go to the Knicks and end up shooting up a school after his inevitable mental breakdown dealing with the press and ignorant fans there.

2. Kawhi- Needs to stay in Toronto. Championship contender that the team gambled heavily on. If he leaves, it calls the franchise's existence into question and that's not good considering Toronto has been one of the few respectable eastern conference teams over the past decade.

3. Kyrie- Somebody has to play with LeBron. :dunno: But the west is so talent-dominant already that he'd be smarter to stay with Boston. I'd say best case scenario for the league is he stays and they get Anthony Davis. #2 most optimal scenario is he relocates within the east, #3 is an ill-fated reunion with Mr. James.

4. Kemba- Witness Protection Walker will remain anonymous if he stays in Charlotte and they'll never win with him as the top option. The only question is if "with him as the top option" is a necessary clause. Should relocate within the east.

5. Klay- The least underrated Warrior has staked his reputation on rings and can't carry a team on his own, so why mess up a good thing for less pay?
 
Best case scenario...

Knicks get Durant and Kyrie

Lakers get Butler and Anthony Davis

They meet in the finals

When the top four lottery picks came down to New Orleans, Memphis, NY and LA, I was happy to see NY and LA fail to get Zion because it's a 30 team league and, even though the short-term ratings for a particular series might benefit from big markets prospering, the league as a whole is unhealthy with many "little sister" franchises deemed to have no chance.
 
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If Toronto wins tonight, I think it will set up a very interesting off-season.

  • Golden State beating Toronto in the finals will show how good they are without KD. Since the media will sensationalize this, it will ask the question if its worth resigning KD to a long term deal. Due to KD's fragile ego, he bolts to the Knicks. Also, does Kawhi think he has a better chance by joining any LA team and beating a 3-peat champion Golden State?
  • If Toronto wins the NBA Finals, that seals Kawhi staying in Toronto. It also sets the scenario of Golden State can't win without KD.
  • Kemba's going for the bag, he don't give a fuck what team it is.
  • For the Lakers, its Anthony Davis or nothing. Their shit show front office and Frank Vogul coaching decision scares top level free agents, except for Kyrie. If anything, they need to see how they could acquire Bradley Beal.
 
Humor me, BGOL Fam: why would KD staying be so horrible for the league?
I have played competitive sports against teams that are hard to beat - winning consecutive chips like GSW - but the joy in finally knocking that team off was the best feeling in the world. If I were a team like say Houston, I would pray they keep their asses together so I can be the one who can say we slayed the dragon. As a competitor, I would feel unfulfilled if I did not go THROUGH the best. I would have wanted to go through Montana or Brady, through Mayweather or Ali, through that ‘18 Boston or ‘96 Yankee teams. So let them keep the “super team”, I want the be the one standing over everyone - including this “unbeatable” squad - in the end.
Thoughts?
 
Humor me, BGOL Fam: why would KD staying be so horrible for the league?
I have played competitive sports against teams that are hard to beat - winning consecutive chips like GSW - but the joy in finally knocking that team off was the best feeling in the world. If I were a team like say Houston, I would pray they keep their asses together so I can be the one who can say we slayed the dragon. As a competitor, I would feel unfulfilled if I did not go THROUGH the best. I would have wanted to go through Montana or Brady, through Mayweather or Ali, through that ‘18 Boston or ‘96 Yankee teams. So let them keep the “super team”, I want the be the one standing over everyone - including this “unbeatable” squad - in the end.
Thoughts?

Too bad KD didn’t feel the same way you did when he left OKC.
 
Humor me, BGOL Fam: why would KD staying be so horrible for the league?
I have played competitive sports against teams that are hard to beat - winning consecutive chips like GSW - but the joy in finally knocking that team off was the best feeling in the world. If I were a team like say Houston, I would pray they keep their asses together so I can be the one who can say we slayed the dragon. As a competitor, I would feel unfulfilled if I did not go THROUGH the best. I would have wanted to go through Montana or Brady, through Mayweather or Ali, through that ‘18 Boston or ‘96 Yankee teams. So let them keep the “super team”, I want the be the one standing over everyone - including this “unbeatable” squad - in the end.
Thoughts?

The most exciting player in the league is Steph Curry and Kevin Durant decreases Curry's value more than any other player in the league.

I'm not anti-dynasty but I'm anti- two time MVP/champions becoming role players in their prime. KD leaving leaves the Warriors very entertaining and makes another team more entertaining, where KD staying means one less competitive team potentially plus a less fun Warriors team.
 
Gonna be interesting to see how the Finals play out. Competitive games or several blowouts? How many years do Steph and Draymond have left on their contracts too?
 
My thoughts on what's best for the league as far as the top 5 free agents:

1. Durant- Worst case scenario is he stays with the Warriors. They are good enough to win championships without him and we don't get to see Steph Curry or Draymond Green shine with him there. He needs to head east. It doesn't particularly matter where. Probably Brooklyn so he doesn't go to the Knicks and end up shooting up a school after his inevitable mental breakdown dealing with the press and ignorant fans there.



As someone who is rooting for the Warriors as long as they have Curry and Draymond, I have to admit I was wrong here... I'm now rooting for him to stay.
 
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