Fed Keeps Interest Rates On Hold as Oil Shock Raises Inflation Risks
Federal Reserve policymakers are keeping interest rates on hold, as the Iran war sends oil prices soaring and threatens to ignite a new round of inflation.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell joined the 11-1 majority on the Federal Open Market Committee to vote in favor of leaving the federal funds rate unchanged at Wednesday's meeting in Washington, DC, judging inflation as a greater risk than weakness in the job market.
The decision leaves the Fed's benchmark overnight rate unchanged in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, where it has now stood since December. After cutting rates three times last fall, the Fed paused at January's meeting, and the outlook for future rate cuts is growing increasingly uncertain.
The Fed's reluctance to cut rates has provoked the ire of President Donald Trump, who has demanded swift rate cuts since starting his second term. Trump reiterated the call on Wednesday morning, writing on his Truth Social site: "When is 'Too Late' Powell lowering INTEREST RATES?"
Mortgage rates, which touched a three-year low of 5.98% last month, have climbed steadily higher since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began on Feb. 28. Average mortgage rates reached 6.11% last week, according to Freddie Mac.
The upward trend in rates, driven by mounting fear of a global energy crisis, threatens to derail the crucial spring housing season, which had been shaping up to be promising for buyers before the war began.
"Mortgage rates are likely to move higher this week, but this won’t be in response to the Fed’s meeting," says Realtor.com® Chief Economist Danielle Hale. "Rather, developments in the Middle East that are likely to spill over into inflation have been the biggest recent drivers."
The Fed does not directly control mortgage rates, but rather sets the short-term interest rate for lending between commercial banks.
The central bank uses higher interest rates to fight inflation, and lower rates to stimulate the job market, in line with the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.
What Fed rate decision means for homebuyers
Bankrate Financial Analyst Stephen Kates says that with the Fed signaling restraint, homebuyers should expect mortgage rates to remain above 6% throughout the spring.