a rafer alston "curse": is it real?
- Thread starter cranrab
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Houston's ascencion has as much to do with no McGrady not being there as it does with Skip. More (high percentage) shots coming from the frontline than their 25 ft bombs = more success IMO
Killer_Tens07
Potential Star
Naw The Magic just sorry GO CAVS!!!!!!
fair counter.
2008-09 rockets WITH tracy mcgrady: 20-15 (.571)
2008-09 rockets WITHOUT tracy mcgrady: 23-14 (.622)
the rockets' improvement without tracy mcgrady is not as large as the rockets' improvement without rafer alston, but there was still improvement.
rockets improvement WITHOUT tracy mcgrady (.051)
rockets improvement WITHOUT rafer alston (.152)
removing rafer alston resulted in an improvement 3X greater than the absence of tracy mcgrady.
I think that's because McGrady does go to the hole once in awhile, while Alston is far too content with just bombing away from long distance. He could probably get away with it if he was a strong defensive player, but he is far too passive on defense and too light have any kind of physical presence. I kind of feel sorry for the dude, because he really needs to be playing for a Mike DAntoni type offense. I think he could be productive if hed concentrate on distribution rather than scoring
agreed. the potential is there, but there are too many rough edges (currently) that need polishing.
I know Alston came out firing in the 1st qt of Game 3, which lead to Orlando's offense stalling and allowing the 76ers to take a 4 point lead.
Looking forward to this afternoon's matchup as this series, along with the Bulls/Celtics and Rockets/Trail Blazers, have been the most entertaining so far, in my opinion.
Looking forward to this afternoon's matchup as this series, along with the Bulls/Celtics and Rockets/Trail Blazers, have been the most entertaining so far, in my opinion.
first off rafer needs some credit .if it wasnt for the magic trading for skip they were not going to be in the play old ass johnson could not get the ball up the court,plus when howard was susended rafer step up big so please stop hating on skip 2 my lou
he wont be able to
anytime someone says something that a small brained nigga doesnt like, they label it as hating
overanalyzing of stats is
damn.
who knew a BEFORE and AFTER comparison would be so distressing to some?
magic played better BEFORE they acquired rafer alston.
rockets played better AFTER they got rid of rafer alston.
fuck it. i have a few minutes to kill before i gotta head out, so let me provide some more food for thought.
rafer alston first became a full time starter in 2004-05.
the toronto raptors record with rafer alston as starter: 31-47 (.397)
the toronto raptors record without rafer alston: 2-2 (.500)
the 2005-06 houston rockets record with rafer alston as a starter: 27-36 (.429)
the 2005-06 houston rockets record without rafer alston: 7-12 (.368)
rafer alston played in every game in 2006-07, so there is nothing to compare that season.
the 2007-08 houston rockets record with rafer alston as a starter: 49-25 (.662)
the 2007-08 houston rockets record without rafer alston: 6-2 (.750)
i guess reality really must "hate" rafer alston, huh?
rafer alston first became a full time starter in 2004-05.
the toronto raptors record with rafer alston as starter: 31-47 (.397)
the toronto raptors record without rafer alston: 2-2 (.500)
the 2005-06 houston rockets record with rafer alston as a starter: 27-36 (.429)
the 2005-06 houston rockets record without rafer alston: 7-12 (.368)
rafer alston played in every game in 2006-07, so there is nothing to compare that season.
the 2007-08 houston rockets record with rafer alston as a starter: 49-25 (.662)
the 2007-08 houston rockets record without rafer alston: 6-2 (.750)
i guess reality really must "hate" rafer alston, huh?
damn.
who knew a BEFORE and AFTER comparison would be so distressing to some?
magic played better BEFORE they acquired rafer alston.
rockets played better AFTER they got rid of rafer alston.
It's not "distressing" to me. I'm a C's fan, I could give to shits about Skip. The point is you like to do these over analyzing of stats and use it to draw off-based conclusions. I remember you doing the same thing in regards to the Cassel/Brady situation.
Sports is not to be treated like some sort of actuarial science
just to be clear, it wasn't really close to being the same thing.
in this case, i am presenting a snapshot of team success/failure with and without rafer alston. based on that, i asked a fair question. to the point, how does one explain that the last 3 squads rafer alston has played on played .700+ ball WITHOUT HIM?
in the case of matt casell and tom brady, i did not compare team success/failure with and without each player. i posited that team success was more due to the system than tom brady. completely different.
i agree that sports is not actuarial science. but are you saying that GMs and personnel directors do not consider player productivity (in statistical form) in hiring, trades and waivers? if that is what you are suggesting, then i would tend to disagree strongly.
And you were dead wrong. They are similar in the sense that in both case you try to use solely stats to prove some off-based point.
And your second "comparison" above is absolutely laughable. It's not even mathematically significant. You compare a 4 game sample size 78 game sample size. And that's not the only thing wrong with these comparisons. Just stop. They aren't valid.
Dog, they also have a +/- stat that's available for each game of the playoffs. It shows how the team fares (+n points or -m points) when a player is in the game. Why don't you look at those stats and see some of the surprising names at each end of the spectrum for a game.
GMs trust their eyes waaaaayyyyyyy more than foolish statistical comparisons.
was i wrong? if i am/was wrong, i have no problem admitting it. in that thread i admitted that i am a casual fan of professional football. i freely admit there are a lot of things that i don't know anything about when it comes to professional football.
funny that you single that comparison out. what about the others?
dog, i say with a great amount of certainty that i am the FIRST person on the SPORTS board AND BGOL to present the existence of +/-. i was citing +/- not only for the playoffs, but the regular season. i was citing +/- before lenovo sponsored the statistic on nba.com
as far as the insight you have into GMs thought processes, you don't have a leg to stand on.
Yes.
I obviously singled that one out because it was the most blatant example of your lazy attempt at proving this "curse" exist.
I'm not going to sit here and do an in depth statistical analysis, you surely haven't. If you've taken any level of probability & statistics (or even studied the subject to any degree) then I'm sure you've heard "correlation." In most real world examples, the different variables are generally NOT orthogonal. In this example, Skip is NOT the premier player on any of those teams. Those W-L records show NOTHING about the health, availability, and effectiveness (i.e. is Yao in a slump?) of his teammates. They say NOTHING about who those games were against or where they were played, etc. These are just a FEW examples of what your lazy "analysis" fails to consider.
Just stop.
This isn't surprising at all. Like I said, the +/- stat is just as lazy and misleading as the arguments you try to present.
And I'm sure you do
well clearly, when faced with such an overwhelming and thorough response, i certainly must be wrong. thank the good lord you provide such a weighty and evidence rich refutation.
yes, your motive was clear. but me lazy? really?
aren't you the one who is lazy, by dubiously selecting 1 sample (which you fairly claimed was not representative due to only 4 games) but completely ignored the games played in the post that started the thread?
oh wait. 48 games and 29 games in the same season are not fair or representative samples either.
right.
i'll take your advice. i had to stop reading after you offered that highlighted garbage up as a mitigating factor. i won't go into an in-depth explanation of why that sentence outs you, because i expect respondents to come to the table prepared. i momentarily forgot how people on BGOL trickle into the SPORTS board with no knowledge of game or the profession. please excuse me for that mistake.
i happen to use weighted +/-, but hey, +/- is just mumbo jumbo voodoo magic.
rawness clearly has more experience in professional basketball than myself or any of these bums on this panel:
http://www.sloansportsconference.com/2009/webcasts/basketball-analytics/
how's this working out for you?
34 year old anthony johnson is 5-7 FGAs, team HIGH assists, team HIGH steals, 1 TO, orlando has a double digit lead in Q4.
you still sure?
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Are you serious. 18 straight wins, 50 TDs, and a Super Bowl berth, versus missing the playoffs? Nicca you can't be serious.
Do you have trouble reading or some shit? The small sample size applies specifically to that example, which was the most blatant misuse of stats. The flaws in your logic as a whole are addressed in the rest of the post. Stop playing dumb....or are you playin?
aka "I'm full of shit"
Yes, yes you are.
My God your lame. Stats have there place, of course, but you like to form arguments/opinions based solely on them. You like to crunch numbers (incorrectly at that) and try to make asinine claims based off of them. Stats can be easily mis-used (as you display time and time again) to support some of the most ridiculous claims. That doesn't mean teams ignore them. That doesn't mean teams don't look at more uncommon ones either. Even you'd be surprised at some of the trivial shit the Pats staff looks at, but the key is that they don't just blindly follow it.
The C's just got blown out....must be because Skip didn't play.
just like i thought. thanks for proving my suspicions all along.
if you had read the post instead of getting emotional (as is apparently your tendency), you'd have noticed that i compared two specific and relevant seasons. not the handpicked 1 you chose above.
just like i thought. thanks for proving my suspicions all along.
if you had read the post instead of getting emotional (as is apparently your tendency), you'd have noticed that i compared two specific and relevant seasons. not the handpicked 1 you chose above.
Your comparsion is off base.
The difference between the '01 Patriots and the '08 Patriots is significantly greater than the difference between '07 Patriots and the '08 Patriots.
And what did Tom Brady do with that '01 squad? Oh yea, that's right, he won the fucking super bowl. With lesser talent on offense. Significantly lesser.
You were wrong then, you're wrong now.
this thread is supposed to be about rafer alston, but if you'd like to continue it in the proper thread, i'd be happy to join you.
we can start with some examples of "significantly lesser" talent.
but more importantly, i think the sentence i've highlighted is key to the problem.
tom brady "won the fucking super bowl". really? i thought the defense played a big part of it.
the 2001 new england patriots D that had all-pro AND pro-bowl selection lawyer milloy. the same D that featured pro-bowl selection ty law. the same D that gave up the 6th fewest passing TDs in the league. the same D that gave up the 4th fewest rushing TDs in the league. the same D that had the 7th most INTs in the league.
Think Skip will play a bigger role in the next round. Mo Williams is not the physical type of guard that exploits him. In a game of finesse, Alston can hang. But if he has to guard Delonte West, it could get ugly for him
Yes, its a team sport. You'd have to watch the games to see why I say he won the SuperBowl. He was no Brad Johnson/Mark Brunell. But as you readily admit, you don't so just stop.
And yes, the '01 offense was playing with significantly lesser talent than the '08 offense. The '08 offense had an All-Pro, future HOF WR along with another Pro Bowler WR. I notice you like to call Troy Brown an All-Pro. Great Patriot, but he made the Pro Bowl just once.
And I've addressed the this nonsense you call 'analysis' of the Skip situation.
again, thank you for your response, but shall we continue in the proper thread.
also, you may want to read and familiarize yourself with the thread. i never said i don't watch games, i said i'm only a casual fan and admit that my knowledge of professional football is poor.
much like the BGOL basketball fans who "watch" games, but have little understanding or insight into what is actually transpiring on the floor.
only difference? i admit my lack of knowledge where others offer pretense.
It's all about matchups. He should do well against LA too. Long as he uses his brain, he will do okay against Fisher. Not so well against Denver though, Chauncey Billups will exploit him physically
Agreed 100 percent... a matchup against Billups is not going to go well for Rafer. Billups can defend Rafer but Rafer has no chance of defending Billups.. Billups is too fast and strong for him.
Just when I thought this thread would be "dead", it looks like it has arisen again.
Does anyone think that Stan Van Gumby is on his way to sabotaging the team by playing Jameer Nelson just as many minutes as he played Alston in Game 1? The Magic were up 2 after Q1 and Alston was looking OK. Jameer comes in and starts off fast then starts to tail off towards the mid point of Q2 but Van Gumby doesn't replace him.
It's all down hill after that. Not only is Nelson showing rust from being out of action but when Alston finally gets in he looks uninterested and his shot was totally off. He was even sulking on the bench at one point.
After Van Gumby outcoached Glenn 'Doc' River and Mike Brown, I thought that he was on his way to a championship but it looks like Shaq was right about the 'master of panic' after all...
Does anyone think that Stan Van Gumby is on his way to sabotaging the team by playing Jameer Nelson just as many minutes as he played Alston in Game 1? The Magic were up 2 after Q1 and Alston was looking OK. Jameer comes in and starts off fast then starts to tail off towards the mid point of Q2 but Van Gumby doesn't replace him.
It's all down hill after that. Not only is Nelson showing rust from being out of action but when Alston finally gets in he looks uninterested and his shot was totally off. He was even sulking on the bench at one point.
After Van Gumby outcoached Glenn 'Doc' River and Mike Brown, I thought that he was on his way to a championship but it looks like Shaq was right about the 'master of panic' after all...
Just when I thought this thread would be "dead", it looks like it has arisen again.
Does anyone think that Stan Van Gumby is on his way to sabotaging the team by playing Jameer Nelson just as many minutes as he played Alston in Game 1? The Magic were up 2 after Q1 and Alston was looking OK. Jameer comes in and starts off fast then starts to tail off towards the mid point of Q2 but Van Gumby doesn't replace him.
It's all down hill after that. Not only is Nelson showing rust from being out of action but when Alston finally gets in he looks uninterested and his shot was totally off. He was even sulking on the bench at one point.
After Van Gumby outcoached Glenn 'Doc' River and Mike Brown, I thought that he was on his way to a championship but it looks like Shaq was right about the 'master of panic' after all...
I THOUGHT dude was sulking too
, but my son told me I was reachin. They really need to play the team and rotations that got them through the playoffs thus far and not worry about PR or Nelson's feelings. If that shit don't work, THEN you make adjustments that might include Jameer Nelson.
This is why when it was posted on the main board before game 1 that the Magic were "thinking" about bringing Nelson back, I said not only was it not a good idea, but that it wasn't a good idea for them to even discuss it. You had just beaten what many deemed as the best team in basketball and did it rather handily. WHY (oh why) would want to fuck with the chemistry of the team now??
A cursory glance at Alston would show you that his pysche is VERY fickle. Don't think he's ever had a starting job 100% wrapped up to himself. He is a rhythm player in the same vein as a John Starks. You start fucking with that psyche and I guarantee you're going to disrupt the entire team with it. I bet Jackson was ESTACTIC when he heard that Nelson was coming back because he knew he'd have a weakness to exploit. Not that Nelson is a "weakness", but his rehab would be. And you can see it (if I were watching) on the court
EDIT:
One more thing: If you're going to bring Nelson back, you must bring him ALL the way back. None of this coming off thebench crap. START HIM and play him 35-40 minutes. Let players know their roles up front and you will get better performances from them in the long run
A cursory glance at Alston would show you that his pysche is VERY fickle. Don't think he's ever had a starting job 100% wrapped up to himself. He is a rhythm player in the same vein as a John Starks. You start fucking with that psyche and I guarantee you're going to disrupt the entire team with it. I bet Jackson was ESTACTIC when he heard that Nelson was coming back because he knew he'd have a weakness to exploit. Not that Nelson is a "weakness", but his rehab would be. And you can see it (if I were watching) on the court
EDIT:
One more thing: If you're going to bring Nelson back, you must bring him ALL the way back. None of this coming off thebench crap. START HIM and play him 35-40 minutes. Let players know their roles up front and you will get better performances from them in the long run
Just when I thought this thread would be "dead", it looks like it has arisen again.
Does anyone think that Stan Van Gumby is on his way to sabotaging the team by playing Jameer Nelson just as many minutes as he played Alston in Game 1? The Magic were up 2 after Q1 and Alston was looking OK. Jameer comes in and starts off fast then starts to tail off towards the mid point of Q2 but Van Gumby doesn't replace him.
It's all down hill after that. Not only is Nelson showing rust from being out of action but when Alston finally gets in he looks uninterested and his shot was totally off. He was even sulking on the bench at one point.
After Van Gumby outcoached Glenn 'Doc' River and Mike Brown, I thought that he was on his way to a championship but it looks like Shaq was right about the 'master of panic' after all...
I didn't understand why Jameer played so much, especially after Rafer did so well in the previous series.
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