So, what's the metric for "mission success" and ROI in this kind of war?
I'd think it would be toppling the incumbent government and seizing control, but I may be wrong. You might be on to something here.
Doesn't killing in war always have to do with "discouraging" people from certain behavior?
What other open source data are you referring to and how would you apply it to the model? Or maybe you have an alternative model?
I'm not a military general and I'm not being facetious, just curious.
I would point you in the direction of the collected works of William Lind, John Robb, and others on this type of warfare given the name fourth generation warfare, 4GW for short. There are many models being thrown around. You pretty much have to use them as a aggregrate and go from there.
He's a short primer by John Robb from his book Brave New World
The New Global Insurgency
The resilience of 4G insurgencies lies in their ability to marry bottom-up leadership structures to increasingly lethal technologies while taking advantage of the very globalization they hate This combination leads to a harrowing cost-benefit dynamic: 9-11 is estimated to have cost Al-Qaeda half a million dollars, with economic damage to the U.S. in excess of 80 billion; this represents a sixteen thousand-fold Return On Investment. Disconcertingly, most of the trends driving 4G warfare are only just beginning to gather momentum; as they accelerate, they are likely to redefine not just warfare, but the societal fabric that underlies it
4G Insurgency Advantages
Capitalizing on the new "terrain"...
Internet-enabled communications: Insurgencies now routinely use the Internet to coordinate and plan attacks, thereby enabling flattened hierarchies
...bottom-up insurgencies...
...attack globalization's weak points
Porous national borders: 4G insurgents able to capitalize on globalization, which depends on transporting freight across borders with minimal hassle;
Decentralized organizational structures with long time horizons
Pay-as-you-go approach: Involvement in global crime enables self-financing of terrorist organizations
Integrated systems: Attacks against dockyards, oil pipelines, power-grids, etc., can disrupt economic life and even threaten ability of nation to govern
Increasingly lethal weaponry: In addition to increasingly potent explosives/weaponry, the successful execution of a WMD attack by non-state actors is only a matter of time.
Urban environments: Today's megacities are fertile ground for insurgencies, both vis-vis recruiting from conditions of poverty and also in ability to hide amidst population
Source: Robb, John, Brave New War