sorry, I forgot that there was a political forum. I started the same thread over on the main forum board.
I've been trying to do the math. Just from memory, about 100 million people vote in the general election most of the time. Of that, you'd need about 50 million plus one to win an outright majority (ignoring the Electoral College for now-- maybe to my great error).
In raw numbers, if there are 40 million blacks, and 20 million adult voters, 95% of which will go for Obama, then he probably has about 19 million votes from this constituency.
I presume, just a guts feeling , that he will get a majority of the young nonwhite votes, but since they have notorious low turnout rates, I think that won't amount to more than 5 million votes.
Intellectual white males, prolly another 3-4 million total.
Asians, mexicans, other hispanics probably would give him a slight majority of their votes, but I don't know how many have a legal vote. I'm just throwing in another 5 million votes from that camp. This might be low.
I count 32 million is a likely coalition of votes not counting white women. That's including a mobilized black voter base, which unfortunately is not always there in the numbers it needs to be.
That means he needs to pick up about 18 million votes from white women and stray white males.
This is just raw majority numbers, not looking at the electoral college.
Am I missing a voter block or does anybody have the real numbers?
One thing that is of note: I recall that WWII-era vets and population are dying off at the rate of something like 7,000 a day. Given that these folks are probably the majority of the old school white males and their mates, and I would bet that they are mostly republican, there will be several thousand less around for McCain on election day.
What do you think?
OR
I've been trying to do the math. Just from memory, about 100 million people vote in the general election most of the time. Of that, you'd need about 50 million plus one to win an outright majority (ignoring the Electoral College for now-- maybe to my great error).
In raw numbers, if there are 40 million blacks, and 20 million adult voters, 95% of which will go for Obama, then he probably has about 19 million votes from this constituency.
I presume, just a guts feeling , that he will get a majority of the young nonwhite votes, but since they have notorious low turnout rates, I think that won't amount to more than 5 million votes.
Intellectual white males, prolly another 3-4 million total.
Asians, mexicans, other hispanics probably would give him a slight majority of their votes, but I don't know how many have a legal vote. I'm just throwing in another 5 million votes from that camp. This might be low.
I count 32 million is a likely coalition of votes not counting white women. That's including a mobilized black voter base, which unfortunately is not always there in the numbers it needs to be.
That means he needs to pick up about 18 million votes from white women and stray white males.
This is just raw majority numbers, not looking at the electoral college.
Am I missing a voter block or does anybody have the real numbers?
One thing that is of note: I recall that WWII-era vets and population are dying off at the rate of something like 7,000 a day. Given that these folks are probably the majority of the old school white males and their mates, and I would bet that they are mostly republican, there will be several thousand less around for McCain on election day.
What do you think?
OR
