An economist said Americans likely feel tariffs increase, within a month(beginning of June)…. Shid it’s here now





The White House has put itself and the country in a bad situation but doesn’t realize it yet.

Around April 10th China to USA trade shut down.

It takes ~30 days for containers to go from China to LA.

45 to Houston by sea, 45 to Chicago by train.

55 to New York by sea.

That means that there are no economic effects of what was done on April 10th until about May 10th.

Around that time (it’s already started to happen) trucking work is going to dry up. Warehouses will start doing layoffs because no labor is needed to unload containers and some products will be out of stock, reducing the need for shipping labor.

All this will start in the Los Angeles area.

After about 2 weeks, it’ll start hitting Chicago and Houston.

Let’s say the White House, after 3 weeks, changes its mind, on May 31st.

“This isn’t working out like we thought it would. Tariffs back to 0.”

Let’s say China says “bygones be bygones, we’ll go back to how things were”.

Let’s say every factory in China that got screwed by their orders being cancelled says the same thing “no problem, we’ll make and ship”.

The problem is, even under the most favorable conditions of China and the factories restarting economic ties as though nothing happened, it will be at least another 30 days before economic activity is revived.

And that’s just in LA.

In Chicago/Houston, you’ll need to wait another 45 days.

New York, at that point, will still be getting containers from before April 10th, they will then have 50 days (May 31 minus April 10) of zero economic activity at the ports, in trucking of Chinese goods, in warehousing.

The whole situation is a bit like lockdowns. Once you shut down, it takes a long time to get economic activity back to where it was, if you ever can.

And again, this assumes, that China and its factories, which make things you can’t buy elsewhere, will start right back up again as though nothing happened, which is unlikely.

It’s almost like we’re speeding towards a brick wall but the driver of the car doesn’t see it yet.

By the time he does, it’ll be too late to hit the brakes.
 
‘Essentially all shipments’ from China have ceased at Port of L.A.

Port of Los Angeles, Executive Director Gene Seroka said many large importers have “hit the pause button on cargo from China” because they don't want to pay the tariffs. He said retailers have about a six-to eight-week supply of goods on hand, “but that will quickly dry up” and customers will begin to see those changes on store shelves.

KNX News 97.1 FM
April 25, 2025


GettyImages2208414368-8726c524-6d0f-4a63-a76d-f82c6ed0f03e.jpg

An aerial view of shipping containers stacked on rails cars at the Port of Los Angeles on April 3, 2025 in Los Angeles, California.
 
On items coming from China



“At the current tariff rate, a U.S.-based company would have to pay at least $145 in tariff fees to Customs and Border Protection to import an item valued at $100, except for electronics and pharmaceuticals“
 

Product shortages and empty store shelves loom with falling shipments from China​

Businesses have been canceling orders for products from China after Trump imposed a 145% tariff on most Chinese imports, risking product shortages for American consumers.​

April 25, 2025, 5:00 AM EDT
Retailers are warning that U.S. consumers could once again be faced with empty store shelves and the kind of supply chain snarls that marked the Covid era if President Donald Trump's tariffs on China remain at their current levels.

Companies have been canceling their shipments of goods from China and halting new orders after Trump put a 145% tariff on nearly all Chinese imports this month. As a result, the number of freight vessels scheduled to arrive at the Port of Los Angeles is on track to be down 33% year-over-year for the week ending May 10, according to ship tracking data from Port Optimizer.

Typically, U.S. retailers would be ramping up their orders for two critical periods later this year: the fall back-to-school shopping season and the winter holidays. And the pullback is creating uncertainty about whether U.S. shoppers will have the selection of goods they've grown accustomed to in the coming months.

"They're making their holiday buying decisions now," said Jonathan Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policy for the National Retail Federation. "It's a challenge for folks to figure out how to properly order and price with all the uncertainty that's out there on the tariffs."

At the current tariff rate, a U.S.-based company would have to pay at least $145 in tariff fees to Customs and Border Protection to import an item valued at $100, except for electronics and pharmaceuticals, which are levied at a lower rate. That fee could wipe out any profit a company would be making and force it to sell its products at a loss or raise prices to levels that consumers might not be willing to pay.

Chinese vendors told NBC News this month that American companies, including Target, have halted orders. A vendor who sells press-on nails to U.S. retailers said that her products are ready to ship but that they have been sitting in China. She doesn’t expect to be sending any products to the United States in the first half of the year.

The National Retail Federation expects imports to drop by 20% in the second half of the year if the tariffs continue at their current rate.

Some of the products likeliest to go missing from store shelves in the coming months will be lower-cost footwear, apparel, toys and electronics, for which manufacturing is heavily concentrated in China, Gold said. Other perishable items coming from China, like apple juice and fish, have limited shelf lives and were more difficult for retailers to stockpile.

“Like back during Covid where we had shortages of toilet paper, we are going to start seeing that in more and more goods,” said Sean Stein, president of the U.S.-China Business Council. “Starting in a couple of weeks, we are just going to start running out of stuff, and if the administration waits to resolve the problem until we have shortages and hoarding, that is just too late.”

The threat of empty store shelves has appeared to raise alarm bells inside the White House, more so than months of warnings from businesses about rising prices, said a person familiar with business lobbying efforts around tariffs. Trump administration officials seemed particularly concerned about a shortage of products around holidays, like the Fourth of July and Christmas, the person said.

Customers shop in an aisle at the store
Customers shop at Costco in Niantic, Conn., on April 18.Robert Nickelsberg / Getty Images file
After a meeting with major retailers this week, Trump said Wednesday that he was considering reducing the tariffs on China, though he hasn’t taken any formal action. He said Thursday that his administration met with Chinese officials, but earlier in the day, Chinese officials denied there had been any formal trade talks with the United States.

While some retailers had been surging shipments from China ahead of the tariffs, buying them some time to get through the summer, that wasn’t an option for many smaller businesses that typically don’t have the money or leverage with their manufacturers to ramp up production levels.

Jessica Berger, founder and CEO of the pet company Bundle x Joy, wasn’t able to stop her company’s latest shipment of dog toys and other pet accessories from leaving China before the 145% tariffs went into effect.

Now, she faces a $180,000 tariff bill from Customs and Border Protection when the items arrive in the United States. Berger said her company, which also gets revenue from its pet foods made in the United States, will be able to use existing financing to cover the cost of the tariffs, but that’s not the case for all small businesses.

“Luckily for me, I have the resources, but six months ago, I wouldn’t have. It would potentially have put me out of business,” said Berger, who sells her products in national retailers like Walmart. “That’s how tight cash is as a small business. We don’t have massive lines of credit and all of these different things.”

Since nearly all dog toys are made in China, Berger doesn’t see an alternative for manufacturing. And for her future product orders, like those she’s committed to sell to retailers during the holidays, she said she will have to increase her prices to cover the cost of the tariffs if those duties remain much longer. But she has also been hearing from other small businesses that are halting their China production.

“I think that you’re going to see a very limited supply of discretionary items, and the consumer may just not be buying as much because the products won’t be available, and if they are, they’re going to be much more expensive,” she said.

For importers who aren’t able or willing to pay the tariffs on their goods arriving in the coming weeks, that could result in thousands of unclaimed containers of goods at U.S. ports clogging the supply chain, similar to during Covid, said Stein.

“We could have thousands of containers stuck gumming up the port,” said Stein. “It’s going to be a train wreck.”



Even if Trump were to reduce the tariffs, the disruption caused to the supply chain could take weeks or months to unravel, given the time it takes for ships to across the Pacific and for the other pieces of the supply chain to snap back into place.

“You have an eight-week period where volumes are going to crash before they can even come back up, and that’s if things return to normal,” said Dean Croke, principal analyst at DAT Freight and Analytics. “All this comes at a time of the year when volumes really should start to increase.”

He said the reduced flow of imports into the port will have a trickle-down effect on the rest of the shipping industry. Trucks that were hauling goods out of the port will now shift elsewhere, flooding the trucking market with excess capacity and driving down the rates truckers get paid to haul their goods. That drop-off in demand for drivers, along with a slowdown in other areas of the economy, like manufacturing and homebuilding, could cause truckers to leave the industry and contribute to a shortage of drivers later.

“It may take well into the second half of this year before truckload volumes recover,” Croke said. “Even if everything went back to normal now.”

Shannon Pettypiece is senior policy reporter for NBC News.
 

Product shortages and empty store shelves loom with falling shipments from China​

Businesses have been canceling orders for products from China after Trump imposed a 145% tariff on most Chinese imports, risking product shortages for American consumers.​

April 25, 2025, 5:00 AM EDT
Retailers are warning that U.S. consumers could once again be faced with empty store shelves and the kind of supply chain snarls that marked the Covid era if President Donald Trump's tariffs on China remain at their current levels.

Companies have been canceling their shipments of goods from China and halting new orders after Trump put a 145% tariff on nearly all Chinese imports this month. As a result, the number of freight vessels scheduled to arrive at the Port of Los Angeles is on track to be down 33% year-over-year for the week ending May 10, according to ship tracking data from Port Optimizer.

Typically, U.S. retailers would be ramping up their orders for two critical periods later this year: the fall back-to-school shopping season and the winter holidays. And the pullback is creating uncertainty about whether U.S. shoppers will have the selection of goods they've grown accustomed to in the coming months.

"They're making their holiday buying decisions now," said Jonathan Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policy for the National Retail Federation. "It's a challenge for folks to figure out how to properly order and price with all the uncertainty that's out there on the tariffs."

At the current tariff rate, a U.S.-based company would have to pay at least $145 in tariff fees to Customs and Border Protection to import an item valued at $100, except for electronics and pharmaceuticals, which are levied at a lower rate. That fee could wipe out any profit a company would be making and force it to sell its products at a loss or raise prices to levels that consumers might not be willing to pay.

Chinese vendors told NBC News this month that American companies, including Target, have halted orders. A vendor who sells press-on nails to U.S. retailers said that her products are ready to ship but that they have been sitting in China. She doesn’t expect to be sending any products to the United States in the first half of the year.

The National Retail Federation expects imports to drop by 20% in the second half of the year if the tariffs continue at their current rate.

Some of the products likeliest to go missing from store shelves in the coming months will be lower-cost footwear, apparel, toys and electronics, for which manufacturing is heavily concentrated in China, Gold said. Other perishable items coming from China, like apple juice and fish, have limited shelf lives and were more difficult for retailers to stockpile.

“Like back during Covid where we had shortages of toilet paper, we are going to start seeing that in more and more goods,” said Sean Stein, president of the U.S.-China Business Council. “Starting in a couple of weeks, we are just going to start running out of stuff, and if the administration waits to resolve the problem until we have shortages and hoarding, that is just too late.”

The threat of empty store shelves has appeared to raise alarm bells inside the White House, more so than months of warnings from businesses about rising prices, said a person familiar with business lobbying efforts around tariffs. Trump administration officials seemed particularly concerned about a shortage of products around holidays, like the Fourth of July and Christmas, the person said.

Customers shop in an aisle at the store
Customers shop at Costco in Niantic, Conn., on April 18.Robert Nickelsberg / Getty Images file
After a meeting with major retailers this week, Trump said Wednesday that he was considering reducing the tariffs on China, though he hasn’t taken any formal action. He said Thursday that his administration met with Chinese officials, but earlier in the day, Chinese officials denied there had been any formal trade talks with the United States.

While some retailers had been surging shipments from China ahead of the tariffs, buying them some time to get through the summer, that wasn’t an option for many smaller businesses that typically don’t have the money or leverage with their manufacturers to ramp up production levels.

Jessica Berger, founder and CEO of the pet company Bundle x Joy, wasn’t able to stop her company’s latest shipment of dog toys and other pet accessories from leaving China before the 145% tariffs went into effect.

Now, she faces a $180,000 tariff bill from Customs and Border Protection when the items arrive in the United States. Berger said her company, which also gets revenue from its pet foods made in the United States, will be able to use existing financing to cover the cost of the tariffs, but that’s not the case for all small businesses.

“Luckily for me, I have the resources, but six months ago, I wouldn’t have. It would potentially have put me out of business,” said Berger, who sells her products in national retailers like Walmart. “That’s how tight cash is as a small business. We don’t have massive lines of credit and all of these different things.”

Since nearly all dog toys are made in China, Berger doesn’t see an alternative for manufacturing. And for her future product orders, like those she’s committed to sell to retailers during the holidays, she said she will have to increase her prices to cover the cost of the tariffs if those duties remain much longer. But she has also been hearing from other small businesses that are halting their China production.

“I think that you’re going to see a very limited supply of discretionary items, and the consumer may just not be buying as much because the products won’t be available, and if they are, they’re going to be much more expensive,” she said.

For importers who aren’t able or willing to pay the tariffs on their goods arriving in the coming weeks, that could result in thousands of unclaimed containers of goods at U.S. ports clogging the supply chain, similar to during Covid, said Stein.

“We could have thousands of containers stuck gumming up the port,” said Stein. “It’s going to be a train wreck.”



Even if Trump were to reduce the tariffs, the disruption caused to the supply chain could take weeks or months to unravel, given the time it takes for ships to across the Pacific and for the other pieces of the supply chain to snap back into place.

“You have an eight-week period where volumes are going to crash before they can even come back up, and that’s if things return to normal,” said Dean Croke, principal analyst at DAT Freight and Analytics. “All this comes at a time of the year when volumes really should start to increase.”

He said the reduced flow of imports into the port will have a trickle-down effect on the rest of the shipping industry. Trucks that were hauling goods out of the port will now shift elsewhere, flooding the trucking market with excess capacity and driving down the rates truckers get paid to haul their goods. That drop-off in demand for drivers, along with a slowdown in other areas of the economy, like manufacturing and homebuilding, could cause truckers to leave the industry and contribute to a shortage of drivers later.

“It may take well into the second half of this year before truckload volumes recover,” Croke said. “Even if everything went back to normal now.”

Shannon Pettypiece is senior policy reporter for NBC News.
What did anyone expect from Bankruptcy in Chief?
He doing to America what he's done to his businesses and businesses that contracted with him.
 
The Federal Reserve raises interest rates that impact mortgages costing way more than any tariff imposed on a country. You could be looking at $200,000 easy. It is not about cheap mortgage rates all the time for decades.

The U.S. need a person/board with a six year term controlling trade policy. I could be the first person selected with my vast knowledge. Unfortunately, the U.S. is against compensating me for anything and would rather use covert surveillance to steal content.

You can't rely on trade deals that will get exploited. The next President could be some incompetent lawyer has no idea about business passively watching.

China dumping of steel has tariffs being setup globally by many other countries.
 
SBZAL6CP4VN67HCCVDGRZ4PFGY.jpg


Jerome Powell should be immediately terminated for gross incompetence. He gave some speech with his analysis of the tariffs/projection on the economy which is direct evidence of his poor performance, easily establishing cause that is required to remove him.

His comments further tanked the market with his talk about recession. Of all people he should've been able to link the decisions he makes on the federal funds rate which can have a bigger impact than any tariff. It is time for him to go off into the sunset.

There are other people spewing nonsense about the probability of a recession that are still employed by their companies and not removed. These people also were grossly incompetent during the financial crisis. We don't need to hear their predictions, nor should they be offering it.

Finally, investors should be filing lawsuits against these business media channels, putting them in the bankruptcy. Many of them were around during the financial crisis and nothing was done to them to put them out of business for gross incompetence. Their coverage was not neutral on tariffs, dramatically overstating the impact, nor issued any disclaimers.

People's retirement funds, and the ability of companies to access capital is cripple by these various entities. What kind of message are you sending to government employees that you want tolerate gross incompetence at the highest levels, yet will fire a probationary employee for poor performance.
 
SBZAL6CP4VN67HCCVDGRZ4PFGY.jpg


Jerome Powell should be immediately terminated for gross incompetence. He gave some speech with his analysis of the tariffs/projection on the economy which is direct evidence of his poor performance, easily establishing cause that is required to remove him.

His comments further tanked the market with his talk about recession. Of all people he should've been able to link the decisions he makes on the federal funds rate which can have a bigger impact than any tariff. It is time for him to go off into the sunset.

There are other people spewing nonsense about the probability of a recession that are still employed by their companies and not removed. These people also were grossly incompetent during the financial crisis. We don't need to hear their predictions, nor should they be offering it.

Finally, investors should be filing lawsuits against these business media channels, putting them in the bankruptcy. Many of them were around during the financial crisis and nothing was done to them to put them out of business for gross incompetence. Their coverage was not neutral on tariffs, dramatically overstating the impact, nor issued any disclaimers.

People's retirement funds, and the ability of companies to access capital is cripple by these various entities. What kind of message are you sending to government employees that you want tolerate gross incompetence at the highest levels, yet will fire a probationary employee for poor performance.
More of that alternative facts.
 
Tried to order some regular old basketball uniforms that we get from china. They says they don’t know when they would get here.
 
More of that alternative facts.

He and many others have no clue what he's talking about and I can go into much further detail, I am not putting all my cards on the table yet. If it wasn't for me countering the nonsense, the stock market would be in the dumps.

You mean to tell me that a toaster that now cost $30 from China is going to have as much impact as raising the Fed fund rate from 0% to 5% or even higher raising the cost of mortgages and other loans.
 


Raw ingredient vendors this week changed from “we need to increase prices due to tariffs” to “this product is cost-prohibitive to import.” In the pharmacy aisles, we will likely start seeing shelves go from increase price to empty by the end of the summer. Simply changing sources for any individual chemical can take 6 months to a year due to compliance. Not many companies have the bandwidth to do this process for dozens of raw ingredients simultaneously
 
Gonna be like the pandemic all over again except this time, it's self inflicted :angry:

A lot of what we experienced economically speaking was also self inflicted due to this same incompetent asshole failing to act preemptively when it was clear we were heading for a pandemic and his actions after the fact which only fueled the panic and divisiveness in the country.
 
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