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Anyone investing heavily this year??

How much money did you lose/gain this past week?

  • I have been looking at the payout on my wife's life insurance policy...do I still need her?

    Votes: 2 6.7%

  • I guess I will postpone paying off the mortgage for a few more years

    Votes: 19 63.3%

  • I knew this day would come and was shorting the hell outta the market

    Votes: 9 30.0%
  • Total voters
    30
  • Poll closed .
DC_Dude said:
Wow!!! WTF? Aren't they like the biggest or the best firm out here?
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HellBoy said:
They are huge. Don't know about the best part. They seem to own every stock I look at.
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Yea I'm pretty sure they're the current leader in total AUM... I assume the outsized losses are due to the market being down + the fact that the share of the market they actually "hold" is so substantial. Rather than them having done something crazy speculative and careless..
 
This was kinda long but pretty good interview (sorry if already posted). JD talks about a buncha shit and the interviewer dude asks some decent questions about macro and some of Drunkenmiller's trades/moves over the years:

(there are also some time stamps in the comments)

6:04 Inflation Above 5%
08:56 The Market as an Economic Predictor
14:25 New Tools, New Toolkit
22:13 Crypto’s Effect on Other Asset Classes
25:00 Bitcoin vs. Gold
27:36 Work Ethic
29:19 Mobile Investing
30:36 Conviction and Being “Hot & Cold”
48:30 Stan’s Advice to a Young Investor
51:31 COVID Investment Inefficiencies
53:28 Bias Toward Growth Stocks
57:40 Stan’s Market “Pain Scale” and Possible Scenarios
1:03:45 Macro Pessimism
1:05:21 Bearish and Bullish
Click to expand...

2:11 In my career I've said many things that didn't turn out
4:00 The last 10 or 11 years we've had $30 trillion in QE
4:35 This business is about guessing
5:11 We've only pulled off 2 or 3 soft landings in history. The one I remember was 1994/1995
5:20 We've never had a soft landing after inflation has gotten above 4.5%
5:56 Anything is possible. I've been wrong plenty of times in my career
6:25 Once inflation has gotten above 5%, it's never come down unless Fed Funds has gone above CPI (but this time that will probably be broken, because Fed Funds would have to go above 8% this time)
7:24 Once inflation has gotten above 5%, it's never been tamed without a recession
8:23 We have $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion in excess savings (who? households or the Government?)
9:53 I was a dropout of a Ph.D program at the University of Michigan
9:57 I don't use what traditional economists use to predict the economy -- things like employment
10:17 The inside of the stock market has a prescient message regarding future economic activity
10:27 Stocks lead fundamentals by 6 to 12 months
11:00 We listen to companies and do a bottom-up analysis
11:14 If leading industries are turning up or down, that's a signal
11:27 The bond market used to be a prescient signaler, but the last 10 or 11 years it hasn't signaled because the Central Banks have manipulated bond prices
12:04 Last summer when the 10-year yield dropped from 1.70 to 1.15, I didn't anticipate that
12:15 Central banks were buying trillions of dollars and manipulating price of bonds
13:15 Home builders with good fundamentals have declined 50% from their highs (might actually be around 36% drop)
13:28 Trucking is down 40% from their highs (might actually be around 30%)
13:49 Retail numbers are tainted. Can't just accept them blindly
14:48 A lot of these signals have long lead times, 6 months to a year (meaning, recession might not happen until 6 months to a year)
16:10 When I first got into the business, if a company reported bad earnings but still closed the day positive, that stock was going to be up 6 months from then (and vice versa)
16:28 If the economy looked great and bonds were rallying, that meant the economy was not going to be great
16:55 Price versus news is weakened these days compared to 20 years ago
17:21 I started in this business in the mid 1970s
17:27 Traditionally, I learned that during bear markets I had to morph into bonds, commodities, foreign currencies
17:45 Maybe this says something about my dysfunctional personality but I've always made more money during bear markets
17:55 the way I did it was by ignoring equities and taking them off the table, and buying bonds
18:00 But I've never seen a situation like this where inflation is over 8% and yields 3%
18:21 Referring to golf, I feel like I'm about to play without a driver or wedge, because bonds which have been my go-to may not work this time
18:50 Investing is an art form and you have to innovate from cycle to cycle
20:29 I've lived through enough bear markets to know that if you get aggressive shorting, you can get your head ripped off with rallies
21:03 Side-stepping a decline is not the worst thing in the world (that is, getting out rather than risking losing or gaining)
21:31 I'll be surprised if sometime in the next 6 months the dollar DOESN'T weaken
23:09 There's a strong correlation between crypto and NASDAQ
24:00 My 69th birthday is in a few weeks
24:32 I feel like my predictive power is better but I'm not making as much money because I'm not as aggressive (with investing)
26:34 If we're gonna have a bull market, I want Bitcoin. If we're gonna have a bear market, Gold
27:35 You gotta know your own biases
28:10 I was lazy in college, but I'm passionate about investing. I'm intellectually stimulated imagining the world and prices 12 to 18 months from now
31:15 Business school says that if you're highly diversified, you have less risk. I don't believe that at all
31:26 People get in the most trouble when they have stale longs or shorts
31:42 You have to have ruthless discipline and be paranoid
32:09 What I learned from George Soros is that it's not about whether you're right or wrong, it's about how much you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong
32:25 I believe in streaks. One of my number 1 jobs is to know when I'm hot or cold
35:41 When you hear a good idea, within 2 or 3 weeks it may be too late
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Last edited:
Looking at the earning reactions, it seems the potential bad news has already been priced in. So, when they miss or barely beat the stock price doesn't move much. Lottos have been trash so far.
 
Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) said Thursday it has signed an agreement to acquire One Medical, a primary care organization that operates under 1Life Healthcare Inc. (ONEM), for $18 a share in cash, or $3.9 billion including debt. The stock closed Wednesday at $10.18 . "We think health care is high on the list of experiences that need reinvention," Neil Lindsay , senior vice president of Amazon Health Services said in a statement. He cited a list of inconveniences associated with health care, including time needed to make a booking, taking time off work, finding a parking spot near a clinic and then accessing a pharmacy. Once the deal closes, Amir Dan Rubin will remain CEO of One Medical. Amazon has made a series of moves in the health care space, including acquiring online pharmacy PillPack in 2019. One Medical stock soared 67% premarket after resuming trading following a halt, but has fallen 42% in the year to date, while the S&P 500 has fallen 17%.
 
HellBoy said:
Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) said Thursday it has signed an agreement to acquire One Medical, a primary care organization that operates under 1Life Healthcare Inc. (ONEM), for $18 a share in cash, or $3.9 billion including debt. The stock closed Wednesday at $10.18 . "We think health care is high on the list of experiences that need reinvention," Neil Lindsay , senior vice president of Amazon Health Services said in a statement. He cited a list of inconveniences associated with health care, including time needed to make a booking, taking time off work, finding a parking spot near a clinic and then accessing a pharmacy. Once the deal closes, Amir Dan Rubin will remain CEO of One Medical. Amazon has made a series of moves in the health care space, including acquiring online pharmacy PillPack in 2019. One Medical stock soared 67% premarket after resuming trading following a halt, but has fallen 42% in the year to date, while the S&P 500 has fallen 17%.
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Didn't see you post this, but Amazon is slowly moving into the healthcare space where there is alot of money if you disrupt the system....I love it
 
DC_Dude said:
Didn't see you post this, but Amazon is slowly moving into the healthcare space where there is alot of money if you disrupt the system....I love it
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Its only a matter of time before Apple and other tech companies get into the Healthcare space.
 
Llano said:
Its only a matter of time before Apple and other tech companies get into the Healthcare space.
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Well here to tell you, Apple is already in the space.. Google as well.....All the data they are collecting from people who wear the apple watch, it's all strategic.....I won't bore you in this thread, but it's a lot of money in this area...

Health tech is BIG and booming...
 
DC_Dude said:
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I'm amazed by all of the quality acquisitions AMZN and GOOGL have made over the years. I may have missed the explosive growth phase, but def 2 companies to park money in long term for slower but steady returns IMO. If you chose to go that route.

I know most of us get exposure to both through an SP500 or Total market fund.. But I started holding GOOGL separately for an extra bump of nitro (hopefully) over the years to come since I like where their tentacles reach.
 
Madrox said:
I'm amazed by all of the quality acquisitions AMZN and GOOGL have made over the years. I may have missed the explosive growth phase, but def 2 companies to park money in long term for slower but steady returns IMO. If you chose to go that route.

I know most of us get exposure to both through an SP500 or Total market fund.. But I started holding GOOGL separately for an extra bump of nitro (hopefully) over the years to come since I like where their tentacles reach.
Click to expand...

Yup and both companies are knee deep in healthcare which is almost at 20% of GDP...
 


I made a few bucks on $IBM this week. Check the chart for levels I am watching. I made a few more posts on my twitter timeline earlier today about $IBM.
 
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Any of you use imbalance candles in your trading? I am learning about them now. Could be an easier way to trade for those who can't sit in front of the computer all day. I found this imbalance candle on $TSLA which needs to be filled. (I think).
 

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