What Will Actually Happen if Russia Invades Ukraine

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The McDonald’s flagship restaurant at Pushkinskaya Square – the first one of the chain, opened in the USSR on Jan. 31, 1990 – in central Moscow on March 13, 2022, McDonald’s last day in Russia.

While Russia is leading a merciless war in Ukraine that has resulted in millions of Ukrainian refugees’ fleeing to neighboring countries, Western brands are on the exodus from Russia.

The closure of over 800 McDonald’s restaurants particularly stands out: McDonald’s was the first American restaurant to open in Russia, in 1990. Its arrival symbolized Russia’s new pro-Western era.

That era is rapidly ending, giving way to a quickly spreading revival of Russian nationalism. Such nationalism is a direct outcome of the country’s economic suffocation through sanctions and the West’s broad rejection of Russia and its war with Ukraine.

The West is punishing Russia, hoping that the dire economic crisis provoked by sanctions will put an end to the bloody war against Ukraine, an independent state that was once an integral part of the Soviet Union.

We are international critical cultural scholars with extensive experience in various geopolitical contexts – the U.S., European Union and post-Soviet countries. We believe that those who think that sanctions will turn Russia and Russians around and end the war know very little about the country, its history and its people.

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Russian suffering: Starving peasants in the Volga region during the 1921-1922 famine in the aftermath of the Russian Revolution and Civil War.

Russians’ perpetual suffering

Russians are used to turmoil and instability. They endured cruel social experiments during the 20th century, and the early 21st, performed upon them by their own political leadership. Except for the rare example of Mikhail Gorbachev, Russian leadership during that period was never democratic.

The country, whose participation in World War I was led by a weak czar, emerged impoverished from that conflict. The czar’s rule was brutally overturned by a Bolshevik uprising that ushered in Soviet rule for decades. The crafting of the Soviet state entailed exiling millions of its own people to the gulag camps and cold-blooded execution of many of them during Stalin’s mass repressions from 1917 to 1956.

Private property was abolished in 1929, and political leaders commanded absolute, selfless obedience to the Soviet state. World War II required painful sacrifice from every citizen, including children.

After the war was over, the depleted USSR constructed the metaphorical Iron Curtain, preventing its citizens from traveling to and communicating with the West. The Soviet state’s attempts to expand its Communist influence led to the Cold War. During that period, failed agricultural reforms gave rise to food rationing. The painful disintegration of the USSR in 1990 brought economic turmoil to the newly formed Russia, along with unemployment and high suicide rates.

What does this catalog of woes teach us? To us, it suggests the Russians cannot be scared by a sanctions-induced absence of goods. High-end fashion labels, iPhones, fancy coffee and foreign cars became a part of Russian life over the past 20 years – but the Russians have had them for far too short a time to be unable to imagine life without them. In any case, most of the luxury businesses – McDonald’s is considered a luxury business in Russia – operated in Moscow and its neighboring regions, whereas the overwhelming majority of the Russians did not get to see them in their towns.

United in their struggle

Historically, any political and economic struggle united Russia and its people, especially in the face of a common enemy. The enemy was traditionally represented by the West.

World War II and the Cold War united the nation around the idea of self-sacrifice as central to the Soviet identity. The identity – a kind of Soviet exceptionalism – consisted of a morally superior nation that values the ephemeral Soul – the mysterious Russian “душа” – more than the perishable Western flesh.

Soviet identity encompassed a great variety of ethnicities, including but not limited to only Russia. Although the capital of the USSR was Moscow, and the official language of the Soviet Union was Russian, the USSR consisted of 14 additional republics, and united more than 100 nationalities. The claimed unity of the nations is debatable, as the sameness was often imposed by forced assimilation – Russification, or spread of the Russian language and culture – and Sovietization, or the state monopoly on everything, combined with groupthink. So “Soviet” refers to anyone who lived in the USSR, including Ukrainians, Russians, Georgians, Belorussians, Armenians, Azerbaijanis and Estonians.

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World War II and the Cold War united the USSR around the idea of self-sacrifice as central to Soviet identity; here, propaganda showing Soviet boys ready to take their part as armed volunteers in any Cold War conflict.

The USSR used pompous discourse that glorified Soviet sameness and the moral sacrifice of its people as a trigger for patriotism and loyalty to the motherland, whose core was Russia. Among popular slogans and sayings were: “Раньше думай о Родине а потом о себе”/“First, think about your motherland, and only then, think about yourself”; “Я - последняя буква алфавита”/“‘I’ is the last letter of the alphabet,” which it is in Cyrillic; and “Я русский бы выучил только за то, что им разговаривал Ленин!”/“I would learn Russian alone because Lenin spoke it!”

Eventually, “Russia” and “the USSR” were understood and used interchangeably, at home and abroad. Therefore, for many Russians, especially those born and raised in the USSR, watching Ukraine embrace the West means letting part of Russia’s history go with it.

The wounded bear

We believe the West’s sanction strategy could backfire.

Not all Russians support the war in Ukraine and the government that dragged them into it. But all Russians are suffering from the sanctions and the crisis. Their common suffering is a dangerous thing: It is all too familiar; it makes them angry, and some are eager to strike back.

The possibility of this stems from the Russian national mindset, crafted in Soviet times and now affecting even generations that grew up in post-Soviet Russia. Western freedoms are only partially appealing, since historically, Russians never had them – not freedom of speech, self-determination, religion nor unrestricted travel.

Instead, the Russian people are patient, stoic and often irrationally devoted to their cruel motherland, whose autocratic leader started a war.

Where does that leave the Russians? From our perspective, in a deep limbo: The country-aggressor that is currently bombing and destroying Ukraine is also their beloved homeland, and by now the only place in the world that accepts them as they are.

Having their country be an international pariah is not new for Russians, from its climate policies to its sports and its foreign affairs, including its widely condemned annexation of Crimea.

But today’s situation is extreme. We believe the chances that Russians will turn toward their government – as they feel rejected by the global community – are high.

That will likely lead to the intensifying of Putin’s autocratic regime under the guise of restoring the country’s industry and economy in the face of Western rejection.

Russia will have a common enemy again, and because thinking – and acting – disobediently in Russia typically has drastic consequences, dissent will not be heard. Putin opponents, among them Anna Politkovskaya, Alexander Litvinenko, Boris Nemtsov, Alexei Navalny and many others – some murdered, some imprisoned – serve as cautionary tales of punishment for political dissent in Russia.

Encouraging Russians to protest their autocratic government, as the West has done, while cutting ties with them, thus becomes an ideological oxymoron. It is punishing the people for what that government does while suffocating them economically.

In Siberia, safety rules are a matter of life and death. One of them is about always leaving the bear a route to escape. The bear is particularly aggressive when wounded, cornered and protective of its cubs. The wounded bear, representing the Russian nation, is not an exception.
 

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Ukraine’s second largest city, Kharkiv, is only an hour from Russia’s border. When Vladimir Putin launched Russia’s invasion, it was thought Kharkiv would fall within 48 hours. But the city is resisting, despite a relentless bombardment. But its citizens are paying a heavy price.

 

After Russia's invasion, the European Union and 27 countries raced to send Ukraine weapons like Javelin and Stinger missiles, and NLAWs. We counted up all of the military aid promised to Ukraine in just the first week of the war.
 
In South Africa president put the military bases on alert to be sent to South Africa to help Botha genocide that country and keep mastering the wealth. In Rwanda the UN is suppose to intervene in cases of genocide but here they refused to even say it was genocide when it was going on. In fact the genocide could have been avoided but UN headquarters in New York made sure it happened and worked to make sure the people being killed got no help. The only time that armed troops were sent in was when forces finally made it to help the poor people being killed. The French sent in armed troops to help the killers get away.
In Libya NATO and America set up the genocide of blacks there. Right now today they are catching blacks in Libya and selling them into slavery. Nobody is going to try to stop it.
We pay taxes to build up white supremacy. Other countries have armies but their secret control is white supremacy. We are political prisoners on land that used to belong to our ancestors.
It may sound far fetched but what they have already done to black people they are moving all over the universe to do it everywhere.
 
Trump sides with Putin as Biden tries to stop a war

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Trump praises Putin'

Trump brazenly asks Putin to release dirt about Biden’s family

By Marshall Cohen, CNN
Updated 11:10 PM EDT,
March 29, 2022

WashingtonCNN —
In a new interview published Tuesday, former President Donald Trump called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to release any damaging information he has about the Biden family, in a brazen request for domestic political assistance from America’s top adversary.


It’s the latest example of Trump’s willingness to solicit and embrace domestic political help from foreign powers – even from Putin, who is currently overseeing a bloody war against Ukraine.


 
Western spy agencies weaponize intelligence in attempt to undermine Putin

Analysis by Stephen Collinson
CNN
Fri April 1, 2022

(CNN) Western intelligence agencies are waging a psychological war over Ukraine directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin, an expert at the genre, who is now effectively taking a dose of his own medicine.


The United States and its allies are painting a picture of a bogged down, demoralized and dysfunctional Russian military taking disastrous losses on the battlefield, and are simultaneously conjuring a vision of growing political tension inside the Kremlin. They claim the Russian leader is isolated, poorly advised and lacking real intelligence on just how badly the war is going.

Western governments are preventing Putin from defining the narrative of the war -- just as they did before it began, when their declassified intelligence correctly called an invasion many geopolitical experts thought was unlikely.

It is a tough position for a Russian leader who has often deployed information warfare himself, notably while meddling in US and European elections. The remarkable detail of the declassified intelligence assessments must also be especially galling to Putin, a former KGB officer and intelligence chief. And they leave open the possibility that Western intelligence agencies have the capacity to see deep into the Kremlin's war effort and internal politics, which is likely to infuriate the Russian leader and could open further cracks in his regime.


The willingness of Western governments to be so open about what they are seeing inside Ukraine and Moscow has surprised even some veteran spies.

"It makes intelligence professionals, even former ones like me, nervous, because, of course, it's so ingrained in us to protect sources and methods," Steve Hall, former chief of Russia operations for the CIA, told CNN's Ana Cabrera Thursday.

Part of the intrigue about the US showdown with Putin and the intelligence angle is being fed by the nature of the covert community itself. Outsiders have no way of independently assessing the full accuracy of the information being pushed into the public view by their leaders. So we don't know where it's all coming from or from whom. But of course, that's the point, and it's keeping the Russians guessing too.

The attempt to portray the war in Ukraine as a disaster for Russia is coming at a moment when Western officials are discounting Moscow's claims that it is deescalating the conflict in Kyiv and elsewhere. Instead, they say, Putin's forces are "repositioning" -- possibly for an intensified assault in eastern Ukrainian regions where Moscow has been pummeling civilians and razing cities. Such a tactic could be designed to unite Russian-held areas with Crimea, which Putin seized in 2014, and to give Moscow a direct corridor to the Black Sea through Ukraine.


The inside story of the war
In recent days, Western officials have sketched a remarkable portrait of the war.
In Australia on Monday, one of Britain's top spy chiefs, Jeremy Fleming, said that Putin had "massively misjudged" the war, the resistance of the Ukrainian people and his own military's capacity, and had been poorly served by his subordinates.

"We've seen Russian soldiers -- short of weapons and morale -- refusing to carry out orders, sabotaging their own equipment and even accidentally shooting down their own aircraft," said Fleming, who heads GCHQ, the UK's equivalent of the National Security Agency. Fleming's frankness was extraordinary coming from a leading espionage agency chief. But it is being mirrored in the United States where there were new reports on Wednesday that opened a window into the war and Putin's inner circle.

An official told CNN's Jeremy Diamond that Putin is being "misinformed" by advisers about how badly the Russian military is performing and the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy. \White House communications director Kate Bedingfield then said on camera that the Russian leader's advisers were "too afraid to tell him the truth." She said there was now a "persistent tension" between Putin and his military leadership.


On Wednesday, this new stream of declassified assessments made headlines. On Thursday, President Joe Biden was asked about them in a public setting, as officials presumably knew he would be. The sequence gave the President the chance to further amplify the US narrative.

"There's a lot of speculation," Biden said, though of course that speculation had been driven by information that the White House had allowed into the public domain. Asked how badly Putin was being misinformed by his advisers, Biden replied, "I'm not saying this with a certainty -- he seems to be self-isolating, and there's some indication that he has fired or put under house arrest some of his advisers." While Biden said that the US didn't have that much hard evidence, his comments unleashed a whole new torrent of attention on Putin's current situation.

So what exactly are Western governments trying to do with this novel use of declassified intelligence assessments? Especially given that in many previous geopolitical crises, intelligence was kept secret by routine?

As with the pre-invasion messaging, it's clear that the US does not want the Russians to be able to create a dominant narrative of their own about the war through disinformation. Creating a picture of a failing war also helps maintain support for the tough Western stand against Putin. It may also improve morale among Ukrainians who are resisting Russia's onslaught. And it gives Western leaders a political opening to argue their policies are working as they manage public opinion on the war.

By providing a look into the disarray among Russian troops, the allies may be able to build internal political pressure on the Kremlin. Given the Moscow government's crushing of independent media, there will be few illusions that the Russian people will hear the US version of events, though tech-savvy younger Russians with VPN passwords allowing access to foreign internet services might.

But a drumbeat of humiliation for Russia could further sow discord inside the military, political and intelligence elites. In recent days, it has almost seemed as though Western officials, by discussing the situation in the war so openly, have been trying to address Putin and his advisers directly.


The complications of an intelligence-driven strategy

It's unlikely the intelligence stream will dry up any time soon. That's because it seems to be rooted in a morale problem inside Russian armed forces, which became obvious thanks to eavesdropping.

"They're whipping out their cell phones and trying to communicate with each other, both tactically, 'Where are you? Where's your unit?' and perhaps also back home in Moscow. That makes it really easy to collect," Hall said.

"And then, it's an interesting political decision to say, look, it's worth perhaps showing the Russians how good we are at collecting this stuff, in order to get the word out to citizens of both countries, citizens of the world, as to what's really going on in the Russian military right now," Hall added.
"It's an interesting decision, but it's been very illuminating."

Still there is reason for caution in interpreting the war solely based on the West's declassified assessments.

Intelligence, by definition, is a murky business. The information about the Russian operations in Ukraine and the apparent isolation of Putin in Moscow only tell the outside world what the Western intelligence services want to release. There is, therefore, no way for outsiders to know whether these snapshots give the full picture or a more selective one.


And the information that does filter out is still limited. An official cited by CNN's Diamond and Kevin Liptak on Wednesday declined to provide additional details of Putin being misinformed by his advisers other than what was reported. The intelligence community declassified and downgraded a summary of their findings but not the material itself.
As always, intelligence agencies are taking strenuous steps to avoid identifying their sources and the methods that were used to collect the intelligence.

There have been multiple times in recent American history -- for example, before the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, when US intelligence assessments have proven to be faulty. In this crisis, however, the covert community has repaired some of its reputation. For weeks, the US warned that Putin was getting ready to send his forces across the Ukrainian border. Even the Ukrainians were skeptical.

Then hours before the invasion actually happened, the US issued a warning that the incursion was imminent -- and was proven correct.

Still, the problems encountered by the Russian invading force have surprised Western intelligence agencies and have caused a reassessment of assumptions about the supposed might of Russia's military forces and leadership.

The head of US European Command, Gen. Tod Wolters, said at a Senate hearing this week that there could be an intelligence gap that led the US to overestimate Russia's strength and underestimate Ukrainian defenses.

But even that oversight only underscores the surprisingly poor performance of Russia's forces, and draws attention to it, further advancing the West's goals.


 
A former Russian official now working with an opposition leader says Putin could lose his grasp on power in a few months
Sarah Al-Arshani
7 hours ago

Russian opposition activists Ilya Yashin, right, and Vladimir Milov present their report Putin. Results. 2018 in front of a poster displaying Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, Russia, Wednesday, March 14, 2018.

Russian opposition activists Ilya Yashin, right, and Vladimir Milov in Moscow, Russia, Wednesday, March 14, 2018. AP Photo/Pavel Golovkin
  • A former Russian official told CNN that Russia's elite will begin to question Putin's leadership.
  • Vladimir Milov said officials are already concerned about Putin's aggression in Ukraine.
  • Milov said officials are monitored and are afraid to communicate with each other about the policies.
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A former Russian deputy energy minister who is now an adviser to opposition leader Alexy Navalny said Russian President Vladimir Putin's time in office is numbered.
Vladimir Milov told CNN's Erin Burnett on Saturday that top officials in the Russian government are "personally devastated" by Putin's aggression in Ukraine.
"For the first time ever, we are moving in a backwards direction. We had a lot of difficulties in the 70s, and the 80s, and the 90s, but we were still somewhat opening to the world and the direction was very different," Milov said. "Now Russia is being disconnected from global markets, global financial architecture, technology, logistics, and so on."
Milov said this disconnection isn't something that's happened before and those in positions of power recognize that.

"So, when I say devastated, I mean it," Milov said.
In a March 18, op-ed in the Journal of Democracy, Milov wrote that Putin's "days are numbered."
He told Burnett on Saturday, that Putin still maintains a strong grip on power but most likely not for long.
"He can hang on for some time, but few weeks, months, down the road, many more people inside the system will begin questioning what he's doing, ordinary Russians will express discontent with deteriorating economic situation, huge losses in the war. This is something Putin never experienced," Milov said.

Milov said Russian elites will start questioning the direction of the country and if Putin is the right leader.
Right now, however, he said communication between government officials is monitored significantly, possibly even greater than surveillance of opposition. Opponents are afraid to speak up about Putin's policies in Ukraine.
"If like two people, three people, or more will start to discuss that Putin is taking the country in the wrong direction, this is with large certain going to be recorded and reported to Putin," Milov said.
 
Why Russia's elite are the key to Putin's downfall
Opinion by Douglas London

Updated 3:57 AM ET, Fri April 1, 2022


(CNN) President Joe Biden's apparently unplanned remarks suggesting that Russian President Vladimir Putin should not be in power complicate the pursuit of a goal that US and allied leaders likely favor, but which had been better left unspoken.
In an unscripted part of his speech Saturday in Warsaw, Biden said, "For God's sake, this man cannot remain in power!" Biden and his aides quickly walked back his comments, denying that the President was actually calling for regime change in Russia.

Instead, the President said he was simply expressing moral outrage at the death and destruction caused by Putin. US officials no doubt recognized the harm that could come from Biden's ad lib.
In the multi-level chess game of internal Russian power dynamics, the last thing those within the Kremlin who might consider moving against Putin need -- whether to alter his direction on the war or remove him outright -- is public encouragement from an American president. If the US' strategic goal is influencing Russian behavior, rather than regime change, then President Biden's remarks were not helpful.

For over 34 years as a member of the CIA's Clandestine Service, I worked to persuade those serving under the often-brutal dictatorships of America's international adversaries to spy for the US. Those who agreed might have welcomed the material benefits that came with cooperating with US intelligence, but most accepted compensation only reluctantly.
In fact, most such spies agreed to cooperate based on ideological dissidence with their illegitimate governments. Few took the enormous risks to themselves and their families out of kinship with the United States.

Rather, in their minds, they acted in the interests of their own country, not from serving the agenda of what many considered an imperialist foreign power.

American policymakers have historically failed to understand that people's contempt for their autocratic rulers does not necessarily translate into an embrace of the US or its political values. They assume wrongly that whatever regime might rise from the ashes of a fallen despot or anti-American rival will share our global agenda or exalt democracy.
Across the masses in Russia and among populations similarly under the yoke of dictatorships in China and Iran, appreciative as some might be of the freedoms they believe Americans enjoy, few see the US government as a noble force for good. That does not mean, however, their common interests when aligned with ours won't offer mutually advantageous political opportunities.

Preserving power
Russians in positions of power today do not necessarily subscribe to Jeffersonian democratic ideals or see America as the world's shining beacon of light. They are focused on the attainment and preservation of power and privilege.
By nature, those who profited under Putin have been opportunists, not purely ideologues. The most successful keep their cards close to their vests, trust few, are careful not to make enemies and operate within carefully monitored coalitions. To succeed, they forge, and when necessary, forsake, alliances based on mutual interests.

Consider those who Putin advanced over the years. They did not achieve his patronage for their morals, ethics or even merit. Rather, Putin empowered and enriched those who loyally and ruthlessly did his bidding. This network extended his control and profit across all critical aspects of Russian society, government and industry.

The Russian leader surrounded himself with those who, superficially at least, embraced and parroted his vision. And the few who broke with him were isolated and punished. Putin wanted to send a message among the privileged who might consider stepping out of line -- occasionally, a lethal one. The European Court of Human Rights ruled last year that Putin's once faithful FSB lieutenant, Alexander Litvinenko, was poisoned by two Russian intelligence agents acting on the Kremlin's behalf, a conclusion Moscow denied.

There has been much talk of the siloviki, "strongmen," in the vernacular, the term for Russia's most powerful government officials and oligarchs once members of the military or intelligence services. Many of the most prominent linked their fortunes to Putin as he rose in power. It is this elite community, rather than the Russian masses, who today have the power to challenge or depose Putin -- and would do so most effectively as a collective, at least at the outset.

These siloviki are not friends of the US, closet pluralists or defenders of human rights. But neither do they necessarily place dogma before self-interests. The cleverest abandoned government positions as the Soviet Union collapsed. They profited from the empire's dismemberment and rode Putin's coattails joining his institutional kleptocracy.

The new elite shared its patron's view of the US and the West as Russia's principal adversary and competitor for the most practical of reasons: their own opportunity to secure power and privilege.

This is the target audience of the pressure the US and its allies are applying. And the goal should be aligning their interests with those of the West to facilitate Putin's departure from his Ukrainian campaign, whether by influence or through his removal.

Russian officials who favor ending the war in Ukraine can say they are acting out of concern for Russia over the consequences of Putin's folly. In contrast, any Russians who advocate Putin's removal can be painted as being in league with, or puppets of, the US and NATO.

Any suggestion of regime change by the West empowers Putin to use it as a rallying call for unity and resistance. It plays to Putin's theatrical use of victimization, casting himself as the heroic defender saving the nation from the whims of hostile foreign powers out to destroy Russia.

Conspiracy and consensus
A rather more enlightened strategy, however, is working within the conspiratorial nature of internal Russian power dynamics. Russian politics is the business of conspiracy and consensus.

In its history as the Soviet Union, even the ostensibly all-powerful and unchallenged leaders maintained a Politburo which provided counsel and executed policy. When leaders were challenged, however, it was behind closed doors and achieved through consensus. Individuals acting alone had less luck.

At the time of Josef Stalin's death in 1953, the next most powerful Soviet official was Lavrenty Beria, head of the secret police, the People's Commissariat for Internal Affairs, better known as the NKVD, and what would become the KGB.
During the ensuing power struggle, Beria used his formidable tools to seize control, but was defeated by a Politburo coalition that resulted in his death and the succession of consensus candidate Nikita Khrushchev.

But Khrushchev would likewise fall in a 1964 palace coup owing in part to the Kremlin's humiliation over the Cuban missile crisis. Khrushchev was deposed by his most trusted lieutenant, Leonid Brezhnev, who acted with the Politburo's support.
And in August 1991, it was the "gang of eight," a coalition that included the Soviet Union's then-KGB Chairman, Defense Minister, Interior Minister and Premier, which moved, albeit unsuccessfully, to seize power from Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev. If Putin is to be swayed, or indeed removed in the near term, it will likely come at the hands of those closest to him, operating together.

The most powerful Russian figure today after Putin is arguably the man who succeeded him at the FSB, Nicolai Patrushev, secretary of Russia's national security council, a post loosely on par with US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, but more powerful. Patrushev appears to have the strongest relationship with Putin of all in his court.

His remarks over the years embrace and amplify Putin's illusions of Russian power, confrontation with the West and the brutal suppression of dissent. But Patrushev's shared sentiments and participation in Putin's re-Sovietization of Russia does not assure his willingness to go down with the captain and his ship.

Opportunism and self-preservation could yet induce those close to Putin across the intelligence, security agencies and military components to press him to alter his position, or by their own accord, remove him should he not. But the last thing the siloviki wish to appear, or would ever be, are US allies. What they can be, however, are actors in a more carefully scripted and soundly executed US and allied strategy.


Opinion: Why Russia's elite are the key to Putin's downfall - CNN


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Putin triggers fears of nuclear war by showing up to funeral with secret case
By
Yaron Steinbuch
April 8, 2022 12:47pm
Updated

Putin has stoked fears of World War 3 after being pictured with Russia’s suspected nuclear briefcase



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MORE ON:VLADIMIR PUTIN
Trigger-happy Russian President Vladimir Putin stoked concerns Friday when he reportedly took his “nuclear football” to a funeral at a Moscow cathedral.
The strongman showed up at the Christ the Savior Cathedral to pay his respects to firebrand ultra-nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky, who is said have died of COVID-19.
Putin walked in clutching red roses, but what caught the attention of viewers was the apparent “secret nuclear briefcase” in the hands of a man wearing a suit and walking directly behind the Russian leader, the Sun reported.
Much like the so-called “football” carried by presidential military aides in the US, the Russian case is believed to contain launch data for the Kremlin’s strategic missiles.
An image published by the Sun shows an open briefcase, which was revealed to the public for the first time in 2019 by Zvezda, a TV channel run by Russia’s Ministry of Defense,
Local media say there are actually three such briefcases, each accessible by the most high-ranking officials in the Russian Federation, according to the report.
The sighting on Friday comes weeks after Putin placed his country’s nuclear weapons on high alert following the start of the Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine.
A man carried a briefcase near Russian President Vladimir Putin at a funeral amid international tension over Ukraine.A man carried a briefcase near Russian President Vladimir Putin at a funeral amid international tension over the Ukraine invasion.TV Zvezda/east2west newsRussia's President, Vladimir Putin has previously had aides tote around the briefcase before, such as at former French President Jacques Chirac in 2019,Russia’s President Vladimir Putin arrives to attend a public ceremony to pay his last respects to Jacques Chirac in Paris on September 30, 2019.Photo by Alexei Druzhinin / SPUTNIK / AFP
Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned this week that Moscow “retains a large and varied nuclear capability to threaten the United States and our allies and partners, and we have heard very provocative rhetoric concerning Russia’s nuclear force alert levels from Russian senior leaders.”
Russia sits on the world’s largest stockpile of nuclear weapons — nearly 6,000 warheads — which includes missiles capable of striking the US mainland, according to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.
The sight of armed guards around Putin could also hint he fears an assassination attempt, as the Sun reported nearly all mourners were cleared out of the church for his arrival.
Zhirinovsky, 75, known for provocative stunts and anti-Western tirades that kept him in the public eye for more than three decades, had been admitted to a hospital earlier this year after contracting COVID-19, according to Russian media.
Some are speculating that the suitcase could be a nuclear football that allows Russia to send off its nukes.Gen. Mark Milley said Russia holds a large nuclear capability.YouTube/CGTN
He was known for outrageous and headline-grabbing statements, including threats to launch nukes against various countries, seize Alaska from the US, and expand Russia’s frontiers to the point where its soldiers could “wash their boots in the warm waters of the Indian Ocean.”
 
INTERNATIONAL
China makes semi-secret delivery of missiles to Serbia
by: DUSAN STOJANOVIC, Associated Press
Posted: Apr 10, 2022 / 08:39 AM CDT
Updated: Apr 10, 2022 / 11:09 AM CDT
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BELGRADE, Serbia (AP) — Russian ally Serbia took the delivery of a sophisticated Chinese anti-aircraft system in a veiled operation this weekend, amid Western concerns that an arms buildup in the Balkans at the time of the war in Ukraine could threaten the fragile peace in the region.
Media and military experts said Sunday that six Chinese Air Force Y-20 transport planes landed at Belgrade’s civilian airport early Saturday, reportedly carrying HQ-22 surface-to-air missile systems for the Serbian military.
The Chinese cargo planes with military markings were pictured at Belgrade’s Nikola Tesla airport. Serbia’s defense ministry did not immediately respond to AP’s request for comment.

The arms delivery over the territory of at least two NATO member states, Turkey and Bulgaria, was seen by experts as a demonstration of China’s growing global reach.
“The Y-20s’ appearance raised eyebrows because they flew en masse as opposed to a series of single-aircraft flights,” wrote The Warzone online magazine. “The Y-20′s presence in Europe in any numbers is also still a fairly new development.”
Serbian military analyst Aleksandar Radic said that “the Chinese carried out their demonstration of force.”
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic all but confirmed the delivery of the medium-range system that was agreed in 2019, saying on Saturday that he will present “the newest pride” of the Serbian military on Tuesday or Wednesday.
He had earlier complained that NATO countries, which represent most of Serbia’s neighbors, are refusing to allow the system’s delivery flights over their territories amid tensions over Russia’s aggression on Ukraine.
Although Serbia has voted in favor of U.N. resolutions that condemn the bloody Russian attacks in Ukraine, it has refused to join international sanctions against its allies in Moscow or outright criticize the apparent atrocities committed by the Russian troops there.
Back in 2020, U.S. officials warned Belgrade against the purchase of HQ-22 anti-aircraft systems, whose export version is known as FK-3. They said that if Serbia really wants to join the European Union and other Western alliances, it must align its military equipment with Western standards.
The Chinese missile system has been widely compared to the American Patriot and the Russian S-300 surface-to-air missile systems although it has a shorter range than more advanced S-300s. Serbia will be the first operator of the Chinese missiles in Europe.
Serbia was at war with its neighbors in the 1990s. The country, which is formally seeking EU membership, has already been boosting its armed forces with Russian and Chinese arms, including warplanes, battle tanks and other equipment.
In 2020, it took delivery of Chengdu Pterodactyl-1 drones, known in China as Wing Loong. The combat drones are able to strike targets with bombs and missiles and can be used for reconnaissance tasks.
There are fears in the West that the arming of Serbia by Russia and China could encourage the Balkan country toward another war, especially against its former province of Kosovo that proclaimed independence in 2008. Serbia, Russia and China don’t recognize Kosovo’s statehood, while the United States and most Western countries do.
 
What Will Actually Happen if Russia Invades Ukraine?


Okay, MB, you started an interesting thread with the headline/question above.

NOW that the invasion has actually occurred,

HOW WILL PEACE ACTUALLY HAPPEN
AFTER RUSSIA HAS INVADED UKRAINE ? ? ?



or can it . . . :confused:
 
Okay, MB, you started an interesting thread with the headline/question above.

NOW that the invasion has actually occurred,

HOW WILL PEACE ACTUALLY HAPPEN
AFTER RUSSIA HAS INVADED UKRAINE ? ? ?



or can it . . . :confused:
I don't have a answer
 
Isn't it ironic that the same people that are now complaining about Russia's invasion, seem to be very quiet about when the United States invades another sovereign state.

Double standards some people may say.
 
Isn't it ironic that the same people that are now complaining about Russia's invasion, seem to be very quiet about when the United States invades another sovereign state.

Specifically . . .
 


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After Finland and Sweden's announcement the countries are considering joining NATO, Putin may be getting the thing he feared the most: NATO expansion. CNN's John Avlon has the Reality Check. #JohnAvlon #CNN #Ukraine
 
Why The Sinking Of Russia's 'Moskova' Battleship Matters


Mason Clark, lead Russia analyst for the Institute for the Study of War, talks with Rachel Maddow about the significance of Russia losing its navy flagship to a Ukrainian attack, and what is expected from the next phase of Russia's war in Ukraine.
 

CNN’s Ed Lavandera reports on what Ukraine calls Russian retaliation attacks in the port city of Odessa after the sinking of a Russian flagship, and then CNN’s Paula Reid talks to military analyst Mark Hertling about Putin’s changing strategy in Ukraine. #CNN #News
 
War in Ukraine: The Economist interviews Tony Blair



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Tony Blair, former British Prime Minister, talks to Zanny Minton Beddoes, The Economist’s editor-in-chief, about the war in Ukraine. He gives his opinions on how to deal with Vladimir Putin, the retreat of Western foreign policy and the future of geopolitics. 00:00 - The evolution of Vladimir Putin 01:52 - The wake up call for the West 02:20 - Consequences of Western retreat 05:09 - Is peace with Putin possible? 06:17 - What should the West’s policy be? 08:43 - Geopolitical implications of the war 11:48 - China’s relationship with Russia and the West 14:03 - The war in Ukraine: catalyst for strategic rethinking?
 
Russia's neighbor blocked its propaganda. Now people are buying antennas

Estonia, which shares a border with Russia, is working to combat the hold Russian state media holds over some of its population -- even after blocking many Russian media sources. CNN's Scott McLean reports.
 


Chechens & Russian Army Battle Azov & Ukraine on Mariupol frontline

Turn on the subtitle for this one.
 

Putin Just Test-Launched a ‘Satan II’ Intercontinental Ballistic Missile
1650468222228-putin-sarmat.png

The Sarmat, dubbed “Satan II” by the West, is a new addition to Russia’s arsenal and is capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads.
GW
By Greg Walters
Matthew Gault
By Matthew Gault
April 20, 2022, 12:00pm
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RUSSIAN FEDERATION PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN OBSERVES THE LAUNCH OF A SARMAT INTERCONTINENTAL BALLISTIC MISSILE ON APRIL 20, 2022. (IMAGES: RIA/KREMLIN POOL)
Russia said it test-fired a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile that Western sources have nicknamed “Satan II”, in the latest case of nuclear saber-rattling from the Kremlin.
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday watched a video of the missile blasting off during a virtual meeting with top military officials, then congratulated them on the successful launch.
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Putin’s remarks left little doubt that the test was explicitly aimed at reminding Western countries that Russia remains a fully-capable nuclear country, at a moment when tensions remain sky-high over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“This truly unique weapon will strengthen the combat potential of our armed forces, reliably ensure Russia's security from external threats and provide food for thought for those who, in the heat of frenzied aggressive rhetoric, try to threaten our country,” Putin said.

Military experts call Russia’s nuclear arsenal robust, and say Russia remains fully capable of wreaking massive nuclear destruction pretty much anywhere on earth. Yet Putin also has a long history of bragging about fancy new weapons in ways that don’t stand up to scrutiny. For example, the time Russia once boasted of a missile with supposedly “unlimited range,” which the U.S. assessed to be more like 22 miles.
Wednesday’s test involved the RS-28 Sarmat, aka the “Satan II,” which was designed to brute-force its way through U.S. missile defense systems. It’s a liquid-fueled ICBM that’s 119 feet tall and weighs more than 220 tons. The payload alone is 10 tons and capable of fielding 24 separate nuclear missiles.
ICBMs launch into the sky, arc around the planet, and come back down to earth with devastating force. The initial launch of the missile is the boost-phase and the “Satan II” is said to have a boost-phase so short that the U.S. wouldn’t be able to knock it out of the sky. Once it nears its target, the warheads break away. Each of the 24 possible internal warheads in the “Satan II” will be carried on the wings of an Avengard hypersonic glide reentry vehicle, a kind of ballistic missile that can maneuver around enemy defenses.
Putin first announced the weapon during a speech in 2018 where he showed a CGI video of the missile striking Mar-a-Lago.
“The new complex has the highest tactical and technical characteristics and is capable of overcoming all modern means of anti-missile defense. It has no analogues in the world and won't have for a long time to come,” Putin said on Wednesday.
 



Asian Boss


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Kazakhstan shares a long border with Russia and is considered to be one of Russia’s closest allies. So, what do Kazakhstani think of Russia's invasion of Ukraine? And since Kazakhstan is a post-Soviet nation, just like Ukraine, are they afraid that the same thing that’s happening to Ukraine might also happen to them? Our Asian Boss reporter hit the streets of Almaty to find out. The opinions expressed in this video are those of individual interviewees alone and do not reflect the views of ASIAN BOSS or the general Kazakhstani population. Check out our first video in Kazakhstan here ► https://youtu.be/XXZ2X2k7niU 0:00 - Intro 1:57 - Kazakhstan government's response 3:28 - Relationship between Russia and Kazakhstan 5:15 - What do you think of Putin? 6:57 - How likely do you think it is for this to turn into WW3? 9:52 - Do you think the Soviet Union could ever be re-established? 11:18 - What are the odds the same thing happening to Ukraine will also happen to Kazakhstan? 13:23 - Message to Ukrainians
 
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