Coronavirus math says 1.4 million Americans will die this year? Or am I missing something

jack walsh13

Jack Walsh 13
BGOL Investor
Wait till you read the article about the shortages that will eventually hit...
That maybe the even bigger issue

BDb7Yp.jpg
 

tallblacknyc

Rising Star
Certified Pussy Poster
With all due respect, you like many millions of others thinking about it wrong. First, there is and will not be a cure. Will there be ways to treat and provide resistance? Yes. Cure? no.

Second, the idea behind social distancing is to slow or stop the spread. Again slow or stop the spread. Why? Because most of us will be able to naturally develop antibodies that will prevent spreading the virus. The problem is, people are continuously spreading the virus before our bodies natural defences can act. Basically, social distancing allows three things to happen.

1. Some people with it will die, therefore they cant spread it.

2. Some people with it will naturally develop antibodies, therefore they cant spread it.

3. Some people wont get it, therefore they cant spread it.

Very logical concept. But, extremely difficult to inact.
most people weren't force to stop working until like 2 weeks ago.. Some places still had people working and operating up until last week.. That doesn't fall on the people but improper leadership and information.. Most political figures from each state had to make that call not the dude who during this time suppose to do his job and push certain tactics... As of right now it's not clear if every state is following similar protocols.. This virus is exposing how much these states really ain't united and operate under their own rules... There's not even a true time table of how long this is suppose to last.. Once again can't blame the people the individuals who job is to take action in time of crisis is failing... They can text your phone for electing a politician but can text your phone for proper procedures and info about symptoms , dos and donts, etc.. Worst reaction to crisis ever.. Yet luckily this plague ain't s hit compare to the real 1s from century past cause the body count would be in the 10s of millions by now
 

TENT

Rising Star
BGOL Investor
What do you do for a living that you are so knowledgable and know this? The experts are saying one thing but you know better? Please explain how you know better.
I hear those numbers being tossed around as well. There is no way in hell that many people will die by the end of the year of COVID-19.
 

TENT

Rising Star
BGOL Investor
Right and the flu is way less deadly. Way less.
Corona is more deadly and more contagious.
The flu does not have the government shutting shit down and telling people to stay home.

They know how bad this can get if people were doing business as usual.

1/3 of the people on the planet would die from Corona if left unchecked.

People would be going on vacation and infected every corner of the earth.

Flu usually has more victims in less time and more casualities.. Flu game so great it made millions worldwide take a shot every yr juss so they won't see them hands

Flu: my name is legendary in these streets..respek my gangsta partner
 

tallblacknyc

Rising Star
Certified Pussy Poster
Right and the flu is way less deadly. Way less.
Corona is more deadly and more contagious.
The flu does not have the government shutting shit down and telling people to stay home.

They know how bad this can get if people were doing business as usual.

1/3 of the people on the planet would die from Corona if left unchecked.

People would be going on vacation and infected every corner of the earth.
is it more deadly because they shut things down or its more deadly cause you know for a fact it's worse? If people just started running randomly screaming they shooting im pretty sure you would start running to.. But are you running cause you saw them running and saying people are shooting or are you running cause you heard gun shots, saw somebody shooting, and know for a fact somebody shooting? Humans have a tendency to react on knee jerk moments more than actual facts
 

Llano

Rising Star
BGOL Investor
125,000 infections in 4 months with a population of 330+ million people... That's not even 33 percent of 1 percent... This is the number people really need to understand... Not even half of 1 percent of Americans are affected by this.. That is literally laughed at by the plague gods... Corona couldn't even sit at the baby chair of plagues.. Flu even looking at corona like "seats taken" when corona tried to sit down next to him

By no means I'm minimizing this but we need to take this into perspective. I believe that there's at least a million or more of us with the virus that have mild to no symptoms walking around.
 

BigDaddyBuk

still not dizzy.
Platinum Member
Brother you are 100% wrong here.

Every scientist has said that the virus will continue to infect people until either we develop a vaccine or we develop herd immunity (which happens when between 50-75% of the planet gets the disease).

No scientist, to my knowledge has ever said, nor has given any reason to think that it will stop infecting people when it reaches 1%.
Your knowledge is both limited and lacking.

I literally just posted the link to the article.

Please educate yourself before engaging me again.

This subject is far too important for you to be disseminating false information and wilfull ignorance.
 

Tito_Jackson

Truth Teller
Registered
Not trying to sound like the anti weed guy. Eat it or water vape it. But, lighting a fire and inhaling it is detrimental. Logically, you breath out carbon dioxide, a waste product. Inhaling the same carbon into your lungs is not life sustaining.

Ironically, the same things naysayers are saying now is exactly what people were saying about cigarettes.

Regardless, its your body, do what you want. But, one can never say they were not privy to the facts.
 

Dr. Truth

GOD to all Women
BGOL Investor
Not trying to sound like the anti weed guy. Eat it or water vape it. But, lighting a fire and inhaling it is detrimental. Logically, you breath out carbon dioxide, a waste product. Inhaling the same carbon into your lungs is not life sustaining.

Ironically, the same things naysayers are saying now is exactly what people were saying about cigarettes.

Regardless, its your body, do what you want. But, one can never say they were not privy to the facts.

My father smoked weed since the early 70s along with all his friends . Not one got lung disease you’re talking out your ass. There are no facts just theories and not one Doctor can show smoking weed leads to any sort of issue.
 

TENT

Rising Star
BGOL Investor
Bro. This shit is airborne AIDS.

The government is not telling you how fucked up it is because niggas will be looting and shooting each other in the streets.

They telling people to stay home because they dont have enough hospitals for everyone in the country to be sick all at the same time.


is it more deadly because they shut things down or its more deadly cause you know for a fact it's worse? If people just started running randomly screaming they shooting im pretty sure you would start running to.. But are you running cause you saw them running and saying people are shooting or are you running cause you heard gun shots, saw somebody shooting, and know for a fact somebody shooting? Humans have a tendency to react on knee jerk moments more than actual facts
 

babygwirl18

Rising Star
Registered
Your knowledge is both limited and lacking.

I literally just posted the link to the article.

Please educate yourself before engaging me again.

This subject is far too important for you to be disseminating false information and wilfull ignorance.
You’re the one putting out misinformation based on non-scientific wishful thinking.

We should all be prepared for what’s coming
 

BigDaddyBuk

still not dizzy.
Platinum Member
You’re the one putting out misinformation based on non-scientific wishful thinking.

We should all be prepared for what’s coming
are you stupid?

i mean if you are i'll leave you alone...but if youre trolling this IS NOT the shit to fuck with people about.

i shared the most up to date fact and science based information...

...and your ignorant ass is choosing to NOT READ IT and run with FEAR instead.
 

tekwehuself

Immigrant Expat
International Member
There is evidence that is leading us to believe that individuals who engage in regular weed smoking are significantly more likely to have complications resulting from the virus.

Why? Because even if you say that weed is natural (kinda).....inhaling carbon is not. In fact it is a anti life process damaging various portions of your lungs.

These same damaged portions are what's affected by covid-19.

How many marijuana deaths reported last year?
 

babygwirl18

Rising Star
Registered
are you stupid?

i mean if you are i'll leave you alone...but if youre trolling this IS NOT the shit to fuck with people about.

i shared the most up to date fact and science based information...

...and your ignorant ass is choosing to NOT READ IT and run with FEAR instead.
Did you read the article that you posted? or did you just skim the first 3 paragraphs.

If you did you would have read that it says this:

“Because this is such a contagious virus, a large percentage of the world’s population, potentially billions of people, could become infected within the next couple of years. Frantic efforts to develop a safe and effective vaccine are likely to take a year or more.”

The same article said that our social distancing measures will NOT stop the spread, just slow it down for as long as we do it:

““Social distancing is building speed bumps so that we can slow the spread of the virus. We have to respect the speed bumps,” Messaoudi said.”

The article never discussed the death rate of the virus, but the CDC says they believe it around 1%.

The premise of this thread is that if our best current science says that the disease has a 1% death rate, and our best current science (including the article you linked) says that 40% of the population will likely get it, doesn’t it follow that millions will die from it?

I don’t think I am saying anything all that controversial.
 

praetor

Rising Star
OG Investor
The large population areas like NYC where everyone is jammed in close together will get hit worse as we're seeing, but I doubt that places like Nebraska, Wyoming, etc will see 40-70%.
 

babygwirl18

Rising Star
Registered
The large population areas like NYC where everyone is jammed in close together will get hit worse as we're seeing, but I doubt that places like Nebraska, Wyoming, etc will see 40-70%.
I think you’re wrong. Think about it a single peasant in a Chinese market ate a bat, and 4 months later the disease is in every corner of the world. Nebraska is not safe.
 

BigDaddyBuk

still not dizzy.
Platinum Member
Did you read the article that you posted? or did you just skim the first 3 paragraphs.

If you did you would have read that it says this:

“Because this is such a contagious virus, a large percentage of the world’s population, potentially billions of people, could become infected within the next couple of years. Frantic efforts to develop a safe and effective vaccine are likely to take a year or more.”

The same article said that our social distancing measures will NOT stop the spread, just slow it down for as long as we do it:

““Social distancing is building speed bumps so that we can slow the spread of the virus. We have to respect the speed bumps,” Messaoudi said.”

The article never discussed the death rate of the virus, but the CDC says they believe it around 1%.

The premise of this thread is that if our best current science says that the disease has a 1% death rate, and our best current science (including the article you linked) says that 40% of the population will likely get it, doesn’t it follow that millions will die from it?

I don’t think I am saying anything all that controversial.
do you know the difference between "could be" and "WILL BE"?

worst case scenarios tend to be far different from actual events.

800k were infected in China.

they expected MILLIONS.
 

babygwirl18

Rising Star
Registered
do you know the difference between "could be" and "WILL BE"?

worst case scenarios tend to be far different from actual events.

800k were infected in China.

they expected MILLIONS.
I know the difference. The point is that your article in no way contradicted the judgment of the #1 epidemiologist at Harvard, who I quoted. He claims that 40-60% of the world will get corona.

I think he knows a little more than you, so I’ll take his word over yours.

As to your point about China only having 800k cases, the disease has not finished spreading in China. They instituted a lockdown, which slowed the spread. Once they open up again, it will begin to spread again just like it did the first time.

Remmeber what the article that you quoted said, and the #1 guy at Harvard said also, this disease can not be stopped with social distancing. The only way it ends is with 40-60% of the earth getting it or a vaccine whatever comes first.
 

shaddyvillethug

Rising Star
BGOL Investor
Sorry bro,

Weed smoke still contains several harmful chemicals, such as ammonia, hydrogen cyanide, nitric oxide, and aromatic amines. Chronic exposure to these compounds in smoke is known to cause bronchitis and COPD.

You cant deny facts.
I need links to yo claims brother Tito

u telling me Alcohol and Scripts are better than Weed?

we been smoking since King Tut had Mufasa
 

Tito_Jackson

Truth Teller
Registered
And for the record, engaging in harmful acts without harmful results does not negate the fact that it is still a harmful act.

Here is something I hear from idiot's all the time.

"Men can not get AIDS from women because I know dudes who have gone raw in a woman with AIDS and none of them caught it."

Having sex with a woman with AIDS is a harmful act. Yes it is less likely a male with contract the illness from a woman. However, it is more likely to get AIDS from doing it than not.
 

BigDaddyBuk

still not dizzy.
Platinum Member
I know the difference. The point is that your article in no way contradicted the judgment of the #1 epidemiologist at Harvard, who I quoted. He claims that 40-60% of the world will get corona.

Marc Lipsitch has ALREADY walked back his worse case scenarios numbers.

"It is true that we can’t be sure either how many infections there have been in any population or the risk of needing intensive care or the case fatality rate."

:smh:


I think he knows a little more than you, so I’ll take his word over yours.

Yes, please do. His MOST RECENT assessment matches the information I posted earlier.
 

babygwirl18

Rising Star
Registered
Marc Lipsitch has ALREADY walked back his worse case scenarios numbers.

"It is true that we can’t be sure either how many infections there have been in any population or the risk of needing intensive care or the case fatality rate."

:smh:




Yes, please do. His MOST RECENT assessment matches the information I posted earlier.
Your quote above does not contradict the Harvard doctor’s opinion, which has not changed
It is based on a. Mathematical projection done by he and other phds at Harvard that the most likely outcome of the coronavirus is that 40-70 percent of the adult population will get the coronavirus.

He reiterated his position clearly on 60 Minutes a few weeks ago.

You’re having difficulty believing me. Why don’t you listen to his own words:

 

ORIGINAL NATION

Rising Star
BGOL Investor
The shit almost seems like everybody is asleep and we are all being guided into a nightmare. Hate to explain it that way but it just seems like that. I have still been trying to get a grip on this whole thing and what is really going on.
 

raze

Rising Star
BGOL Investor
Hospital beds capacity is what’s missing in this discussion
America doesn’t have a 20% ICU capacity
Not even 1% to take 3m ICU beds
More like 0.1% or 300k
If even just 20% get infected and 5% get sick that’s 1.7m dead


Plus the fact that heart attacks, strokes, serious injuries, and other non-corona medical issues are still happening. The virus doesn't have doesn't have to be the plague of all plagues, but it's still powerful enough to overwhelm the healthcare system. Not everyone is going to get the treatment they need, which will result in more deaths.
 

Famous1

Rising Star
Platinum Member
do you know the difference between "could be" and "WILL BE"?

worst case scenarios tend to be far different from actual events.

800k were infected in China.

they expected MILLIONS.
But you saw how China was beating ass if you were caught on the street during the lockdown right... That's how you prevent worst case scenario... Act swiftly and decisively.
Best case scenario..... Nobody dies
Worst case scenario..... 1percent of 40 percent of 350million die.
 

zod16

Rising Star
BGOL Investor
Plus the fact that heart attacks, strokes, serious injuries, and other non-corona medical issues are still happening. The virus doesn't have doesn't have to be the plague of all plagues, but it's still powerful enough to overwhelm the healthcare system. Not everyone is going to get the treatment they need, which will result in more deaths.

Exactly. Italy didn't start putting up crazy numbers until their system was overwhelmed and they ran out of equipment. I don't people get how many people will require hospitalization with this.
 

zod16

Rising Star
BGOL Investor
But you saw how China was beating ass if you were caught on the street during the lockdown right... That's how you prevent worst case scenario... Act swiftly and decisively.
Best case scenario..... Nobody dies
Worst case scenario..... 1percent of 40 percent of 350million die.

:yes: China was testing on a massive scale and welding peoples doors shut so they couldn't leave. If you tested positive, you couldn't return to your family home until you were negative. None of that will happen here...
 

BigDaddyBuk

still not dizzy.
Platinum Member
Just read an article from the top epidemiologist at Harvard, who along with 2 other scientists say that 40-70% of the worlds population will “likely” get Covid this year.


If they’re right, and there is a 1% death rate in the disease. Doesn’t that mean that 1.4 million Americans will die?

My math is 40% (the low estimate) times 350 million Americans times 1 percent. I realize that the death rate may be lower, but so far that’s what the numbers tell us.

If this is true, why any anyone sounding the alarm?
The "Harvard doctor" you're referring to IS MARC LIPSITCH, you fucking ninny. Its THE SAME MAN writing both articles!

He absolutely UPDATED his prior statements by saying there was not enough info to predict the infection rate nor the death rate of covid19 in the US.

The fuck is wrong with you???
 
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