Nevada is already being called for Hillary Clinton. It's probably over already

Nate Silver’s 538 model is giving Donald Trump a heart-stopping 35 percent chance of winning as of this weekend.

He ratcheted the panic up to 11 on Friday with his latest forecast, tweeting out, “Trump is about 3 points behind Clinton ― and 3-point polling errors happen pretty often.”
Nates been fucking up lately.

He is admittedly NOT using pure mathematics...he's adjusting the model to fit his insticts...which is a departure from all past years where he was right.
 
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Not a single ballot has been counted. Anywhere.
Even though the ballots are processed before the election, Gelms says under law, the results cannot be printed out or released beforehand polls close next Tuesday night. Until then, the information is stored in two places within the ballot counting machines.

I'm still waiting for you to acknowledge this.

We're you lying or just ignorant of the process?
 
he would need FL & NC OH UT AZ all of NH + MI or PA and or WI

AZ and UT are shaky as hell - and Trump pulling a sweep of 2 out of 3 in MI and PA and WI would take a terror attack on Monday
don't know why they are focused on Colorado now - even if he wins it - it can't make up for MI PA or WI - he needs it to be perfect for Colorado to help him

I think Trump knows the knives are out if he loses especially if the loses in both houses are significant

Oh he definitely not winning my state (AZ) with all the Mexicans here :giggle:
 
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Even though the ballots are processed before the election, Gelms says under law, the results cannot be printed out or released beforehand polls close next Tuesday night. Until then, the information is stored in two places within the ballot counting machines.

I'm still waiting for you to acknowledge this.

We're you lying or just ignorant of the process?

#1. No matter the answer, your first reply was still unhelpful when John Doe was clearly literally interpreting the thread title about NV being called for Clinton.

#2. My original point was wrong and I acknowledge that. I wasn't lying, have nothing to gain from lying and the greater ignorance is you being asshole enough to pounce on a simple mistake with accusations of dishonesty.
 
No

Donald Trump is on track to double Gov. Mitt Romney’s support among African-American voters, according to a series of state polls.
In 2012, African-Americans comprised a record 13 percent of all voters. President Barack Obama was reelected with 93 percent of the African-American vote, leaving Gov. Mitt Romney with only 6 percent of the African-American vote. Obama is now campaigning against Trump, and hoping to keep his share of the African-American vote below the 11 percent that George W. Bush won in 2004 during the housing bubble.

On Friday, a poll of 506 Pennsylvania voters by showed Trump has the support of 18.46 percent of African-Americans. That’s eight points more than Romney’s share of the national vote in 2012, and if it proves true during the ballot, that 18.46 percent African-American support translates into 2 point shift towards Trump. The poll also said another 4.6 percent were undecided.

Will you just stop.

Trump is getting blown out.

Hillary already started redecorating the WH as soon as the primary s were over.

I think you getting bitch insurance for your posts on this clown show....

Why not be useful and give some down ballot information in various states and citied.
 
#1. No matter the answer, your first reply was still unhelpful when John Doe was clearly literally interpreting the thread title about NV being called for Clinton.

he was responding about them counting votes, and clarified by saying so. i corrected him and was RIGHT.

now, did you misunderstand that, or are you lying about what he said and meant?

#2. My original point was wrong and I acknowledge that. I wasn't lying, have nothing to gain from lying and the greater ignorance is you being asshole enough to pounce on a simple mistake with accusations of dishonesty.

wait, you corrected me...and i'm an asshole for telling you that you didnt know wtf you were talking about?

i'm an asshole for being right...and proving it?

i'm an asshole for showing you yet again that you need to research your answers before speaking authoritatively?

how exactly am i supposed to respond to your laziness, lack of preparation and general bitchassidness??

either you didnt know, or you were lying. i asked a simple question.

at least you did admit to your ignorance on the subject, so there's that.
 
he was responding about them counting votes, and clarified by saying so. i corrected him and was RIGHT.

now, did you misunderstand that, or are you lying about what he said and meant?

This is an ignorant and pointless question to which I will not respond.
 
Nates been fucking up lately.

He is admittedly NOT using pure mathematics...he's adjusting the model to fit his insticts...which is a departure from all past years where he was right.
Bradley effect - he is worried about being wrong because of Trumps dog whistles and codewords
"this is your last chance... after this forget about it... 'they' take offer after this"
 
Not a single ballot has been counted. Anywhere.

You can get a reasonable idea of how voting will turn out based on party registration-- I agree with the OP's assessment but it is all conjecture. Common sense but still speculation until they actually count the votes on Tuesday.

There may be quite a bit of GOP cross over. Right now they are just assuming results based on party affiliation. I'm a registered independent tho many independents are former GOP who are semi sane.

I said early voting data. Go back and re-read all my posts and tell me where I said the votes have been counted.

They have tight controls on measuring early voting data in Nevada. Those measures gave exacting results in 2012. This year, the early voting data clearly shows dems are CRUSHING those numbers. So what's the fucking problem?

Have yall seen what the map looks like for Trump without Nevada?
The title did make it seem like they were counting votes. The title even pissed me off, many people will not vote if they think it's over.

Whether she was a great campaigner or not. It would still be hard to take the house. The senate is an easier task because it state wide. The house is a bunch of districts tailor made for the incumbent candidate.
So you would need to increase the number of democrats in each districts and/or get independents on your side plus peel of some republicans.
The biggest way to break up those districts is to take out republicans in your state legislature by 2020 and you can flip control of the house .

President Obama and Eric Holder are supposed to be making redistricting a focus after he leaves the WH. Hopefully we see some tangible results come midterms.

mayne, you responded by saying you aint responding.

you MUST be a woman.

:hmm:
 
Nates been fucking up lately.

He is admittedly NOT using pure mathematics...he's adjusting the model to fit his insticts...which is a departure from all past years where he was right.
He need to go bad using pure mathematics
 
The repubs will attempt to impeach Hillary, I am calling it now. It will happen within her first year at that.

Yea they will try everything but they have zero credibility.


The pathetic shit is they could prevent real progress by dwelling on this bullshit

Like they did president Obamas birth certificate
 
The repubs will attempt to impeach Hillary, I am calling it now. It will happen within her first year at that.
That sounds about right. But when you lose the house in 2018, that should end their shenanigans until census season, which will be the official end of the Republican Party.
 
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Yea they will try everything but they have zero credibility.


The pathetic shit is they could prevent real progress by dwelling on this bullshit

Like they did president Obamas birth certificate
If trump loses, it's a referendum on trump and not conservative ideology. I want it to be about conservative values.
 
If trump loses, it's a referendum on trump and not conservative ideology. I want it to be about conservative values.

I'm just happy he left the republiklans in a disgusting mess..

But that fool belongs nowhere near the oval office...

Conservative values starts off normal with traditional families and less govt then it just spirals downhill into a sea of whacked out wackiness
 
Are people seriously trying to make arguments that Trump is going to win?!? For those of us that play Spades, let me try to clear this up for you. If this election were a Spades card game Trump would have to run a Boston on a blind 10 for 2 in the last hand of the game while he was down 460 to 300 in order to be elected president. When was the last time you were playing spades and only had to make board to win and your opponent bet a blind 10 for 2 and actually got it?!?
 
Are people seriously trying to make arguments that Trump is going to win?!? For those of us that play Spades, let me try to clear this up for you. If this election were a Spades card game Trump would have to run a Boston on a blind 10 for 2 in the last hand of the game while he was down 460 to 300 in order to be elected president. When was the last time you were playing spades and only had to make board to win and your opponent bet a blind 10 for 2 and actually got it?!?
This a spades playing ass nigga right here lol
 
Are people seriously trying to make arguments that Trump is going to win?!? For those of us that play Spades, let me try to clear this up for you. If this election were a Spades card game Trump would have to run a Boston on a blind 10 for 2 in the last hand of the game while he was down 460 to 300 in order to be elected president. When was the last time you were playing spades and only had to make board to win and your opponent bet a blind 10 for 2 and actually got it?!?

My greatest round of spades was played in a bowling alley in NY we were down just shy of 200 and they needed board to win .

We bid 10 since we had nothing to lose looked at my hand said I got 5 my patna was like I got the rest soon as he said that brandys baby baby came on and we ran a Boston in spades on them fools .
 
If trump loses, it's a referendum on trump and not conservative ideology. I want it to be about conservative values.
There is nothing wrong with conservative values. It's the people who currently represent, or better yet, misrepresent those values.
 
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