Article is repeating the same shit from last week and adding nothing new.
Not these ones tho.....
Is Batman v Superman set to be a flop? AI predicts the superhero movie has only a 32% chance of making a profit
- Cast-director partnership and winter release date are key for success
- Researchers used learning software to analyse 2,500 previous releases
- They identified factors that correlate most to the profit a film will make
- Cartoon Zootopia was found to have the highest chance of making a profit
By
RICHARD GRAY FOR MAILONLINE
PUBLISHED: 11:39 EST, 16 February 2016 | UPDATED: 14:06 EST, 16 February 2016
It is perhaps the most eagerly awaited comic superhero films of the year and with a budget of more than $200 million (£140 million), it will also be one of the most expensive.
But the formula of pitching two of DC Comics most famous superheroes against one another in Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, may not be the success studio bosses hoped it would be.
A new algorithm that uses machine learning has given the movie just a 32 per cent chance of turning a profit.
The new film Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice pitches DC Comics two most iconic superheroes against each other (pictured). The film has been eagerly awaited by fans but a new computer algorithm that analyses the success of movies at the box office suggests it may not live up to the expectations of movie bosses
Computer scientists trained the software by getting it to analyse more than 2,500 movies released in the US between 2000 and 2010.
The researchers then used the software to analyse films that are due to be released over the next year to assess their chances of making at least $7.3 million (£5.1 million) profit from box office sales.
The new Batman v Superman film, starring Henry Cavill and Ben Affleck, came out particularly poorly.
An expensive cast and high budget means it may struggle to turn much of a profit when it is released in cinemas.
Similarly Masterminds, a bank heist comedy staring Kristen Wiig, Owen Wilson and Zach Galifianakis, was found to have only a 39 per cent chance of making a decent profit.
However, films like Zootopia, an animated movie from the same producers as Frozen, has a 55 per cent chance of making at least $7.3 million in profit.
While horror film Before I Wake was found to have just a 13 per cent probability of making that kind of money.
While the Batman v Superman comic book adaptation (poster shown above) was found to have a 37% chance of turning a suitable profit, Zootopia (right), from the creators of Frozen, was found to have a 55% chance
Dr Kang Zhao, a business analytics expert at the University of Iowa, explained: 'It's easier to predict the box office receipts if you have star power, but that doesn't help in predicting profitability because the actors charge such a hefty fee upfront that it reduces the profit.'
The researchers, whose work is published the journal of Social Computing, Behavioural-Cultural Modelling and Prediction, analysed 2,506 movies released between 2000 and 2010 to identify the factors that most play a role in a film's success.
The relationship between the director and the cast was found to have the strongest correlation – if they had a history of making a profitable movie together in the past, they were likely to again.
Stars Henry Cavill and Ben Affleck can help to pull in movie viewers, but they are also expensive, which can eat into a movie's profits. With a large special effects budget, Batman v Superman has cost around $200 million to make, which puts it alongside some of the most expensive films ever made
Elsewhere, the average gross sales of a director's previous movies together with a cast who have also made profitable movies was considered.
The annual profit percentage made by the genre itself and perhaps importantly, a winter release date, were also factors.
The researchers chose $7.3 million as a suitable figure that movie executives might expect to get in return for their investment in a film.
Batman v Superman is scheduled to be released in March this year in the US.
Michael Lash, a PhD student who also took part in the research, said the number of tickets a movie sells at the box office did not always predict how successful it was.
He said: 'Movies that sell better at the box office may also need bigger investments. Thus they do not necessarily provide satisfactory returns for investors.'
HOW 2016 FILMS WERE RATED BY THE ALGORITHM
The researchers put their algorithm to the test by predicting the chances some movies due to be released this year will turn a $7.3 million profit.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...-superhero-movie-32-change-making-profit.html
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Breakthrough algorithm predicts Hollywood flops, says 'Batman v. Superman,' 'Warcraft' doomed
"Batman v Superman" will be released next month.
(Warner Bros.)
By
Douglas Perry | The Oregonian/OregonLive
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on February 15, 2016 at 2:11 PM
Oscar-winning screenwriter William Goldman is famous for saying that in Hollywood "nobody knows anything. ... Not one person in the entire motion-picture field knows for a certainty what's going to work. Every time out it's a guess and, if you're lucky, an educated one."
That truism soon may have to be retired. University of Iowa researchers
write that they have "built a predictive model for movie success, deviating from past studies by predicting profit (as opposed to revenue) at early stages of production (as opposed to just prior to release) to increase investor certainty." The study was published last year in the journal Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction.
The algorithm that drives the system determined that the big-budget Warner Bros. picture
"Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice" has only a 32 percent chance of making it into the black. The movie will be released next month. It also concluded that
"Warcraft," based on the video-game series and set for a June release, has a 39 percent chance of turning a profit.
The predictive model takes into account many factors, including the movie's stars and director, their box-office track records, the movie's genre and plot, and when it will be released. The model's creators "ran the numbers from every film released in the U.S. between 2000 and 2010 through their 'who, what and when' formula to fine-tune which elements played a greater role,"
writes Tom Snee, an editor in the University of Iowa's Office of Strategic Communications. He adds:
"The entertainment industry has spent years looking for a tool that will predict with at least some accuracy whether a movie will hit or miss. The tool is especially important for investors who have no real method to help them decide whether to support a movie, such that film financing is still a high-risk venture more than 100 years after the rise of the commercial movie industry."
Studio executives certainly will love to have some scientific backing for their decisions, but of course this might just mean more comic-book movie franchises and fewer risky projects at the multiplex. As Goldman wrote in his iconic novel (and movie) "The Princess Bride": "Life isn't fair. It's just fairer than death, that's all."
-- Douglas Perry
http://www.oregonlive.com/entertainment/index.ssf/2016/02/breakthrough_algorithm_predict.html
then Lex is like here's another villain and then wonder woman shows up to help..did i miss anything?
