Re: ~*~2014 NBA OffSeason Thread - Who's Doing What??? ~*~
WEDNESDAY BUZZ COLUMN
Mostly Heat chatter today:
### Though his return is not certain by any means, the Heat remains the favorite to retain free agent LeBron James, but he wants issues with the roster addressed, according to an associate with knowledge of the situation.
When James speaks with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh this week, he will gauge their willingness to opt out of existing contracts and agree to deals that give the Heat more spending money. Both of them appear receptive to opting out and taking pay cuts in exchange for longer deals, provided the cuts aren’t too steep.
The good news for the Heat: None of James’ other most attractive suitors have the cap space to give him a max contract, and creating that space will either be difficult or cost them assets that would make their rosters potentially no more appealing than Miami’s. (More on that in a minute.)
### Even though Bosh said he would be receptive to taking a pay cut and a Wade associate said Wade is open to the idea, it might not create enough space to add one of this summer’s priciest free agents if James doesn’t do the same.
A Wade associate said Wade would be receptive to considering a four-year, $60 million deal to replace the $42 million he’s owed over the next two seasons.
But let’s say Wade and Bosh each take cuts to $15 million next season.
And let’s say Udonis Haslem can be convinced to opt out of the $4.6 million he’s owed next season for a three-year deal starting at $2 million or $2.5 million. (Haslem has told me he's open to the idea of exchanging money for years if it would help add pieces to the roster.)
And let’s say the Heat dumps its other cap commitments except Norris Cole --- meaning Miami trades its first-round pick and cuts Justin Hamilton. (Cole is due $2.15 million, by the way.)
Under that scenario, with Wade and Bosh each earning $15 million and James making $20 million (which would be his max for next season), the Heat would have only $5.5 million to $6 million of space under the projected $63.6 million cap, factoring in required cap holds topping $500,000 each for roster spots unfilled up to 12.
The Heat also would have a $2.7 million “room” exception in this scenario and also could sign players to the minimum, topping out at $1.4 million.
But the $6 million or so in cap space in this scenario could not be combined with the room exception.
And what could $6 million buy in free agency?
It wouldn’t be enough to lure Carmelo Anthony.
Luol Deng’s agent, Herb Rudoy, said even though Deng believes the Heat is “fantastic,” there’s “not a chance” Deng --- who made $14.3 million last season --- would agree to that amount of money.
Toronto point guard Kyle Lowry likes the Heat but is looking for $10 million a year or more.
Lakers forward/center Pau Gasol, who earned $19 million last season, would like to play for a winner, but the Heat will have competition from some of the 15-plus teams with significant cap space, including Dallas, which has $30 million, a lot of which will be used on Dirk Nowitzki.
Washington Wizards free agents Trevor Ariza and Marcin Gortat, who each earned $7.7 million last season, are both expecting raises, as is Cleveland center Spencer Hawes ($6.5 million). So is Phoenix forward Channing Frye, who opted out of a guaranteed $6.8 million next season.
But if James also took a cut of several million dollars, Miami could make a competitive offer for any of those except possibly Anthony, whom the Heat will call nonetheless. Though the idea of another James pay cut isn’t appealing to some of his associates, it’s possible he might do it for a few select players.
### If James doesn’t take a cut, but Wade and Bosh takes cuts of about $5 million apiece, the $6 million or so that would be created in space would make the Heat a contender for players such as point guards Darren Collison, Kirk Hinrich, Patty Mills or Steve Blake (each could warrant a share of that money if Miami splits it up), Brooklyn’s Paul Pierce (an associate said he wants to play for a winner and included Miami, the Clippers and the Nets among several possibilities), Charlotte power forward Josh McRoberts, Lakers power forward Jordan Hill (Miami has pursued him before) and Clippers forward Danny Granger.
The Heat then could use its $2.7 million room exception and minimum contracts on the likes of Ray Allen (ESPN says he's leaning toward playing), Chris Andersen (still has interest in possibly returning despite opting out), Marvin Williams, Jordan Hamilton, Chris Kaman, Andray Blatche, Kris Humphries, Vince Carter, Shawn Marion, Jodie Meeks, Caron Butler or Emeka Okafor.
The Heat also has a $2.2 million trade exception from the Joel Anthony deal.
If four or five quality rotation players can be added through these means, the roster would be much better even without signing one of the most expensive free agents. And the Heat would not be paying a luxury tax in this scenario.
### The Heat could create more space by asking Bosh and Wade to go down to $12 million next season and making it up on the back end of their deals, so that each gets $60 million over four years. In this scenario, even without James taking a pay cut, the Heat could have enough space (around $11 million) to land Lowry.
But the Heat would then be clogging its cap with a 36-year-old Wade making $18 million in 2017-18, with no assurances that James would still be around at that point. And you would be asking two-thirds of the Big Three not only to accept a huge cut from $20 million to $12 million next season but also take far, far less than LeBron would be making.
### James planned to opt out even if the Heat had won the Finals and likely will at least listen to suitors that interest him, according to the associate.
But none of those attractive suitors have the cap space Miami did four years ago.
James likes Clippers coach Doc Rivers and is close with Chris Paul, but creating enough space to sign him would require the Clippers to find teams able to take DeAndre Jordan ($11.4 million), Jamal Crawford ($5.4 million), Jared Dudley ($4.2 million), Matt Barnes ($3.3 million) and Reggie Bullock ($1.2 million) without sending contracts back AND persuading James to agree to a salary as much as $8 million under the $20 million max next season. (Thanks to NBA salary cap guru Larry Coon for confirming my calculations on this.)
The idea of the Clippers being able to rid themselves of that much salary (especially Dudley, Barnes and Bullock) without taking any back appears unrealistic.
The Clippers' other alternative, if James wants to sign there, is to propose to the Heat a sign-and-trade with Blake Griffin. But Yahoo! reported the Heat has told people it’s adamant against sign-and-trades for James.
And for James, he would need to ask himself this: Would playing for a Griffin-less Clippers in a tougher conference offer any better chance of winning than Miami does? He would be opting for Paul and Jordan instead of Wade and Bosh and whatever supporting casts each team can assemble.
Houston will make a run at James, but to offer James even $19 million, the Rockets would need to find a taker for Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin --- who are each due $14.9 million balloon payments and have $8.4 million cap numbers --- and make other minor moves.
Chicago would need to amnesty Carlos Boozer and likely trade Taj Gibson to make James a representative offer.
Though the idea of returning to Cleveland down the road holds some appeal to him, James would want the Cavaliers to add another significant piece for him to even consider that this summer, the associate said. And doing that would require parting with Anderson Varejao and perhaps other pieces.
ESPN reported several teams, including Cleveland and Atlanta and the Lakers, are exploring ways to create enough cap space to add both Anthony and James at reduced salaries. The odds are against that, though the Heat hasn’t given up hope of Anthony joining the Big Three at reduced salaries.
James can explore that Anthony scenario immediately if he chooses, but the Heat cannot call Anthony until 12:01 a.m. Tuesday.
### James can sign for as much as five years, $115 million with the Heat but no more than four year, $85.5 million with other teams.
### The Heat, awaiting word from Allen, hasn’t told several of its non-Big Three free agents --- including Rashard Lewis, Michael Beasley and James Jones --- whether it wants to keep them. Jones seems likely to be invited back, especially if James returns.
