What Will Actually Happen if Russia Invades Ukraine

COINTELPRO

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Imagine Warren Buffett, Jeff Bezos, or Bill Gates living in Russia all the time - building mansions and buying a yacht that is docked in the U.K., this covertly signals that the U.S. is inferior which it is.

The West got a huge head start and built a legacy with the internal combustion engine that China could not match globally. EV and possibly electric passenger jets everybody is starting at the same time and could be disruptive to the EU economy and even the U.S. China had to resort to building infrastructure projects with Africa to gain access to raw materials it needed.
 
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MCP

International
International Member

Russia-Ukraine war: A conflict of huge miscalculations

Putin thought Ukraine would fold. The West thought Russia would be destroyed by sanctions. With nuclear weapons on the table, this is a dangerous stalemate

An%20image%20of%20Russian%20President%20Vladimir%20Putin%20is%20displayed%20as%20U.S.%20President%20Joe%20Biden%20speaks%20about%20gas%20prices%20in%20the%20South%20Court%20Auditorium%20at%20the%20White%20House%20campus%20on%20June%2022%2C%202022%20in%20Washington%2C%20DC.%20AFP.jpg


Since he decided to invade Ukraine in February, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been subject to widespread attention and scrutiny by a multitude of scholars and pundits of international relations, opinion makers and even psychiatrists.

He has been described as a ruthless autocrat, a cold calculator, a war criminal and someone bordering on insanity. Mad Vlad has been a recurrent label attached to him, and a comparison with Adolf Hitler has come out frequently, too.

Most of the western pundits who have been profiling the Russian leader have never met him.

In my previous role as a diplomat, I had a couple of occasions to sit with him and other people in the same room. However, I would never venture to predict what he is thinking and planning. Putin's reclusive habit and his very small and loyal inner circle probably prevent any reliable assessment of his real aims.

What I do feel confident saying is that he conveyed to me the impression of someone able to handle with high mastery every single detail of any topic he is dealing with.

Until the war in Ukraine erupted, Putin gave the impression of someone capable of managing complex games on multiple tables owning very poor cards. In a nutshell, the perfect poker player.

Putin's lost magic touch?

Having said that, I feel confident in saying that any predictions regarding Putin's real aims and behaviour are purely speculative.

During the Soviet era, after all, so-called Kremlinologists had to check the order of protocol of the communist leaders during the annual military parade in Red Square to assess the shifting power balance inside the USSR's nomenklatura. Today's experts on Russia go through a complex exegesis of Putin's speeches and interviews to get clues about his thinking and intentions.

In such a realm, nothing can be taken for granted. It is difficult to ascertain if Putin is effectively pursuing a deliberate course of action or whether he is simply misleading his opponents by dissimulating his real intentions.

It might be that since the 24 February invasion of Ukraine, the Russian leader has lost his alleged magic touch. At first sight, the military campaign has been disastrous; as has been the diplomatic fallout, at least among the constituencies of the global West.

As for the global Rest, the picture is more controversial, with only bland condemnations of the invasion and no following of the West in sanctioning Moscow.

Russia's poor military performance came as a shock to many. In Syria, over the last decade, the Russian armed forces have been able to change the course of the civil war.

Since February, there have been two huge apparent miscalculations. The first was Russian confidence about quickly prevailing on the ground against the Ukrainian army. The second was western confidence that in a matter of weeks it would be possible to bring Russia to its knees through unprecedented sanctions.

When nuclear powers are involved, indulging in miscalculations could sooner or later have catastrophic results. Russia issued ambiguous statements on the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons in the Ukrainian conflict, while western pundits added that a cornered Russia could very well conceive the use of such weapons.

The United States has so far shown cautiousness by not supplying Ukraine with the most lethal weapons from its vast conventional military arsenal. The Patriot air defence missiles Washington has recently promised to Kyiv would not seem to be a game-changer.

A careful strategy to avoid any escalation seems to be in play.

Exit strategy

However, after such serial miscalculations, the priority should be finding an exit strategy from the conflict that ideally suits the interests of all players. Easy to say, very hard to achieve, especially given the zero-sum mentality that appears to be pervading the thoughts of all major players at present.

Furthermore, is it sound to assume that the main actors are actually looking for an exit strategy?

For Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, it would be difficult to settle for a deal now when roughly 20 percent of Ukraine's territory is still under Russian occupation. True, Ukraine has recovered Kherson and Kharkiv, but will it be enough to justify the huge sacrifice and destruction endured so far by its population?

President%20of%20Ukraine%20Volodymyr%20Zelensky%20speaks%20during%20a%20joint%20press%20conference%20with%20U.S.%20President%20Joe%20Biden%20in%20the%20East%20Room%20at%20the%20White%20House%20on%20December%2021%2C%202022%20in%20Washington%2C%20DC.%20AFP.jpg

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky speaks at the White House during his recent visit to Washington DC, 21 December 2022

The same reasoning can be applied to Putin. A settlement now would register as a defeat for Russia, especially since its troops have been retreating from their previously held positions for the last three months.

The US is aware of the risks of escalation that the ongoing conflict presents, but the "let Russia bleed" policy seems to be still quite attractive inside Washington's Beltway. Zelensky's recent visit to the US capital and the standing ovation he received from Congress do not suggest restraint.

What then if all the major players in this conflict are actually looking to, or at least adjusting to, a long game?

High toll

The war has exacted a high toll on almost everyone. Firstly and primarily on Ukraine, which has been bravely resisting an all-out assault on its cities and infrastructure, with severe casualties among its soldiers and the civilian population. Secondly, on the Russian army, with its similarly estimated heavy casualties and on its civilian population, under the duress of western sanctions.

Thirdly, on Europe, which in a few months has been compelled to reverse a decades-old energy relationship with Russia that is causing inflation, supply disruption and a possible economic downturn. Only the US, so far, has escaped the dire social and economic consequences of the conflict.

Although he has often been described as being surrounded by sycophants, isolated in a bubble and detached from the daily reality of his country, Putin, so far, seems to have shown more knowledge of his own population than many western pundits. The internal criticism levelled against him has tragically focused more on his alleged restraint in the military operation in Ukraine than on his reckless decision to invade the country.

It is also true that any attempt to gauge real Russian dissent towards the war is quite difficult, considering the autocratic nature of modern Russia.

The Russian leader flaunts confidence, but he could be approaching more miscalculations, should he assess that Russians' resilience in carrying on the war will outmatch the Ukrainians', and if he calculates that western support for Kyiv is not limitless.

As for Zelensky, his miscalculation could be his confidence that his exhausted population could endure such a dramatic situation for another full winter.

As for the US, their miscalculation could be in underestimating and overestimating Russian and Ukrainian resilience, respectively.

If the last months' miscalculations have been devastating, the next ones could be catastrophic.
 

QueEx

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Super Moderator
Russian Politician Says It's Time to 'Admit'
Real Reason for Ukraine War


Russian lawmaker: Time admit reason Ukraine war

Above, a photograph shows buildings damaged in the Ukraine war in Kharkiv on February 13, 2023, alongside an inset
of Russian President Vladimir Putin. A member of the Russian state Duma said during a recent appearance on State
TV that it’s time for political and military leaders to “admit” the real reason for the invasion of Ukraine.SERGEY
BOBOK/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES; CONTRIBUTOR/GETTY IMAGES


Newsweek
Story by Andrew Stanton
Monday 2/13/2023


Russian State Duma member Andrey Gurulyov called on the Kremlin to "admit" the real reason for the Ukraine invasion during a recent appearance on Russian state TV.

After launching the war last February, Russian President
Vladimir Putin has offered a number of reasons for invading Ukraine.

He has argued he is only trying to "liberate" Donbas, a separatist region in southeastern Ukraine with linguistic ties to Russia. He has also said he aimed to remove Nazis from the Ukrainian government, despite Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky himself being Jewish.


Most world leaders have condemned the "special military operation," arguing it lacks real justification beyond Putin's ideal goal of retaking Ukraine's territory, but the Kremlin has maintained its stated goals nearly one year after entering Ukraine.

Gurulyov argued Putin should finally own up to why he launched the Ukraine invasion during the Russian state TV appearance. The Kremlin has cracked down on free press amid the war, meaning the television news show largely serves as Putin's propaganda. His remarks were translated and posted to Twitter by journalist Julia Davis, who regularly tracks Russian state TV.


During the more recent invasion, Putin also claimed to have annexed several southeastern regions of Ukraine, including the Donbas, following elections widely dismissed by shams by the West. Most nations still recognize these territories as belonging to Ukraine.

Despite only claiming interest in the Donbas, Russian troops were initially sent into other parts of Ukraine, including areas near the capital city of Kyiv, whose suburbs were subject to alleged human rights abuses by Putin's troops.

Newsweek reached out to Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs for comment.




Russian Politician Says It's Time to 'Admit' Real Reason for Ukraine War (newsweek.com)


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COINTELPRO

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The Kremlin has cracked down on free press amid the war, meaning the television news show largely serves as Putin's propaganda.
We have this new retarded tactic with many of the U.S. media outlets will champion the government pro war sentiments that in the past were critical during Iraq & Afghanistan. This cred that built up in the past is now being used to push the Ukraine war to a now trusting/unsuspecting audience.

Some of the people that were part of this apparatus will leave and provide their critical take of Ukraine on some Youtube channel. I won't put people or organizations names out there but you should be able to easily figure them out. They will attack their former employer/master to distance themselves from them. The government will allow dissenting voices to create the appearance of free press, I just don't like them coming from the same organization that built up cred with Iraq and Afghanistan, flipping the scrip.

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I always questioned Malcolm X because he utilized many of these tactics with the NOI. Seeing this low grade tactics now has bolster my belief that he was doing something subversive.

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I had to ban many of them that just out of blue incessantly tried coming after me parroting government lies. I might expose them and go into detail, it is insulting to my intelligence, and they need to pay a price.
 
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COINTELPRO

Transnational Member
Registered
MSNBC_Default_21_V2.jpg


2001-2014
MSNBC - 10 million viewers critical of Iraq/Afghanistan wars, challenges the government narrative, builds up cred on the street with anti-war activists.

2014-present
Ukraine

2020
MSNBC - Champions Ukraine war as being righteous and justified, Putin is an evil monster.

Joy Reid splinters off to form her Youtube channel with 10,000 people to create the illusion of dissenting voices that are tolerated. Youtube throttles her channel to suppress her numbers.

You get this gamesmanship that tricks you into watching a show under false credibility, than the alternative challenging government narrative is suppressed to create the illusion of free press.
 

QueEx

Rising Star
Super Moderator
Putin Won't Live to See Ukraine Victory, Russia State TV Fears

Registered
Feb 22, 2023


BY ELLIE COOK ON 3/6/23 AT 6:00 AM EST

Russian President Vladimir Putin and other leading Kremlin figures may not "live long enough to see any successes" for Moscow in Ukraine, according to a Russian state television commentator.

Despite Russia making some progress in its invasion effort, one state media pundit questioned the timeline of the war, which could last "for decades."

Any hopes for a quick victory in Ukraine were quickly dashed for Putin after Russian troops poured into Ukraine on February 24, 2022. The war has now been described as "attritional," and may end up as a protracted conflict, not unlike the ten-year-long Soviet war in Afghanistan during the 1980s.

Speculation has surrounded Putin's health throughout the war so far, but little is known for certain about the the 70-year-old's medical record.


Vladimir Putin

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a concert dedicated to the upcoming Defender of the Fatherland Day at the
Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow on February 22, 2023. Putin may not live long enough to see the end of the Ukraine war,
a state media guest has said. MAKSIM BLINOV/SPUTNIK/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES


Speaking on the Russia-1 state television channel, commentator Sergey Mikheyev—described as a political scientist—suggested the Ukraine war could outlast the lifespan of many, including the Kremlin's top figures.

"If we move at this speed, this will last for decades," he continued.

In comments shared on Telegram on February 28, former Kremlin aide Sergei Markov said the war could last beyond two decades.

The Russian invasion has lasted "longer than it was planned and expected, and there is no end in sight," Markov said.

Mikheyev, speaking in the clip posted to Twitter on Sunday, suggested that one of the "simple things" Moscow could be doing to shorten the war would be "blocking" Western politicians from traveling to Ukraine. President Joe Biden made a surprise visit to Kyiv in February, as did Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

"Our position has severely worsened," Mikheyev added. "We either move forward and stop imitating sovereignty and truly achieve a success, or we retreat with a massive failure."

Russian forces have been making gains around the contested Donetsk city of Bakhmut in recent weeks, according to Western analysis. On Sunday, the Institute for the Study of War think tank said Ukrainian troops were likely making a "limited tactical withdrawal" from the Donbas settlement that has been largely destroyed by months of heavy fighting.

Kyiv's commanders have not confirmed whether their forces are pulling back from Bakhmut. However, Ukrainian forces may look to "exhaust" the Kremlin's units through urban warfare, the think tank said.


Russian soldiers are "unlikely to quickly secure significant territorial gains" in this kind of warfare, the ISW said.

Newsweek has contacted the Kremlin for comment.

Putin Won't Live to See Ukraine Victory, Russia State TV Fears (newsweek.com)

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QueEx

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Super Moderator
What Will Actually Happen if Russia Invades Ukraine?

What Will Actually Happen if Russia Invades Ukraine?

Wagner Chief Says Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Unjustified

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023...ussias-invasion-of-ukraine-unjustified-a81609

hours ago

TASS_59521483-2.jpg
Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin.Lev Borodin / TASS


Russia did not face an imminent security threat to justify its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of Russia’s Wagner mercenary outfit, said in a bombshell video posted on social media Friday.

“The Armed Forces of Ukraine were not going to attack Russia with the NATO bloc,” Prigozhin explained in the half-hour tirade released by his press service.​
The Russian Defense Ministry is deceiving the public and the president,he added.​
Prigozhin’s comments were at odds with the casus belli given by President Vladimir Putin when he ordered troops into Ukraine last February, although the private army chief avoided personally attacking the Russian leader.​
Putin has cited NATO expansion near Russia's borders as one of the main justifications for invading neighboring Ukraine.​
NEWS​

Wagner Chief Accuses Moscow of 'Misleading Russians' Over Ukraine Offensive


Meanwhile, Prigozhin escalated his criticism of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu by claiming that Russia went to war “for the self-promotion of a bunch of bastards.”

He blamed Russia’s military leadership for “poorly planning” the invasion and “embarrassing” the military after a series of setbacks on the battlefield last year.

“Shoigu killed thousands of the most combat-ready Russian soldiers in the first days of the war,” he charged.

“The mentally ill scumbags decided ‘It’s okay, we’ll throw in a few thousand more Russian men as ‘cannon fodder.’ ‘They’ll die under artillery fire, but we’ll get what we want’,” Prigozhin continued.
“That’s why it has become a protracted war.”
Prigozhin also accused Kremlin-linked oligarchs of seeking to plunder Ukraine’s resources after its military capture and appointment of a puppet regime in Kyiv.

“The task was to divide material assets in Ukraine.
There was widespread theft in the [industrial eastern Ukrainian territory of the] Donbas, but they wanted more.”

Some analysts have interpreted Prigozhin’s latest comments as a sign of his growing political ambitions.
He addressed the Ukrainian forces’ ongoing counteroffensive in similarly critical terms, saying the Russian army is retreating from the partially occupied Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.

“We are washing ourselves in blood. No one is bringing reserves. What they tell us is the deepest deception,” Prigozhin said, referring to Putin and Shoigu’s claims that Russia is successfully pushing back Ukrainian counterattacks.

Read more about: Prigozhin , Wagner , Ukraine
 
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QueEx

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Super Moderator

Wagner Leader Declares War on

Russian Military After Alleged Attack

BY JON JACKSON ON 6/23/23 AT 3:41 PM EDT

The Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin on Friday accused the Russian military of attacking Wagner positions in Ukraine with missiles and declared war on the Russian Ministry of Defense.

"We are 25,000 strong, and we are going to figure out why chaos is happening in Russia," Prigozhin announced in a message shared on Telegram. "Everyone else is free to join us."

Prigozhin has long been critical of Russia's military leaders and frequently expresses his frustrations with them on Telegram. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu is often a direct target of his denunciations, and Prigozhin on Thursday accused the defense minister of lying to Russian President Vladimir Putin about Russia's "colossal" battlefield failures.

According to Prigozhin, the tensions resulted in his troops being attacked on Friday by Russia's formal military forces.

Prigozhin and Putin

After the alleged attack, Prigozhin said he's "declaring war on the Russian Ministry of Defense."

"PMC Wagner Commanders' Council made a decision: The evil brought by the military leadership of the country must be stopped," he said, according to a translation from the WarTranslated project. "Those who destroyed today our guys, who destroyed tens, tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers will be punished.

"I'm asking: No one resist. Everyone who will try to resist, we will consider them a danger and destroy them immediately, including any checkpoints on our way. And any aviation that we see above our heads."

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The Wagner leader also promised to resume fighting in Ukraine once his battle with the Defense Ministry ends.

"We will deal with those who destroy Russian soldiers. And we will return to the frontline," he said. "Justice in the Army will be restored. And after this, justice for the whole of Russia."

Russia's Defense Ministry denied Prigozhin's claims of an attack. In a statement shared by Kremlin-backed news outlet RIA Novosti, the ministry said, "all of the reports and video footage from Yevgeny Prigozhin circulating on social media and allegedly showing 'a Defense Ministry strike on Wagner Group rear camps' do not correspond to reality and are an informational false flag."

RIA Novosti also reported that Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin is aware of Prigozhin's declaration and added that "all the necessary measures are being taken."

Igor Girkin, a former commander in Russia's military who frequently criticizes how Putin is conducting the Ukraine war, said "a coup attempt is underway."

"If this isn't a fake [which it can be], the military coup has started," Girkin wrote on Telegram. "But if it isn't a fake, then the situation with the face-off between MoD and Wagner is out of control and needs immediate involvement by the president. If we still have him at all..."


Update 6/23/23, 4:00 p.m. ET: This story has been updated with statements from Russia's Defense Ministry and the Kremlin, as well as comment from Igor Girkin.


read://https_www.newsweek.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsweek.com%2Fwagner-leader-declares-war-russian-military-after-alleged-attack-1808765


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Wagner Leader Declares War on

Russian Military After Alleged Attack

BY JON JACKSON ON 6/23/23 AT 3:41 PM EDT

The Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin on Friday accused the Russian military of attacking Wagner positions in Ukraine with missiles and declared war on the Russian Ministry of Defense.

"We are 25,000 strong, and we are going to figure out why chaos is happening in Russia," Prigozhin announced in a message shared on Telegram. "Everyone else is free to join us."

Prigozhin has long been critical of Russia's military leaders and frequently expresses his frustrations with them on Telegram. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu is often a direct target of his denunciations, and Prigozhin on Thursday accused the defense minister of lying to Russian President Vladimir Putin about Russia's "colossal" battlefield failures.

According to Prigozhin, the tensions resulted in his troops being attacked on Friday by Russia's formal military forces.

Prigozhin and Putin

After the alleged attack, Prigozhin said he's "declaring war on the Russian Ministry of Defense."

"PMC Wagner Commanders' Council made a decision: The evil brought by the military leadership of the country must be stopped," he said, according to a translation from the WarTranslated project. "Those who destroyed today our guys, who destroyed tens, tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers will be punished.

"I'm asking: No one resist. Everyone who will try to resist, we will consider them a danger and destroy them immediately, including any checkpoints on our way. And any aviation that we see above our heads."

SIGN UP FOR NEWSWEEK’S EMAIL UPDATES >
The Wagner leader also promised to resume fighting in Ukraine once his battle with the Defense Ministry ends.

"We will deal with those who destroy Russian soldiers. And we will return to the frontline," he said. "Justice in the Army will be restored. And after this, justice for the whole of Russia."

Russia's Defense Ministry denied Prigozhin's claims of an attack. In a statement shared by Kremlin-backed news outlet RIA Novosti, the ministry said, "all of the reports and video footage from Yevgeny Prigozhin circulating on social media and allegedly showing 'a Defense Ministry strike on Wagner Group rear camps' do not correspond to reality and are an informational false flag."

RIA Novosti also reported that Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin is aware of Prigozhin's declaration and added that "all the necessary measures are being taken."

Igor Girkin, a former commander in Russia's military who frequently criticizes how Putin is conducting the Ukraine war, said "a coup attempt is underway."

"If this isn't a fake [which it can be], the military coup has started," Girkin wrote on Telegram. "But if it isn't a fake, then the situation with the face-off between MoD and Wagner is out of control and needs immediate involvement by the president. If we still have him at all..."


Update 6/23/23, 4:00 p.m. ET: This story has been updated with statements from Russia's Defense Ministry and the Kremlin, as well as comment from Igor Girkin.


read://https_www.newsweek.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsweek.com%2Fwagner-leader-declares-war-russian-military-after-alleged-attack-1808765


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oh shit!
FYh-Kd.gif
 

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Vladimir Putin reportedly flees Moscow as Wagner forces advance in Russia​

By
Dana Kennedy
June 24, 2023 9:38am
Updated















0 seconds of 20 secondsVolume 77%











MORE ON:RUSSIA

Vladimir Putin’s presidential plane left Moscow early Saturday, sparking rumors that he had fled the Russian capital as the Wagner Group’s mercenary forces advanced on the city.
The president’s aircraft was spotted on flight radar flying northwest from Moscow to the St Petersburg area — but then disappeared from the system near the city of Tver, the BBC reported, where Putin owns a large rural retreat.
Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied that his boss had turned tail amid the crisis, telling news agency TASS that he was “working in the Kremlin.”
But Igor Artamonov, the governor of the Russian region of Lipetsk just south of Moscow, confirmed that a military column carrying Wagner Group men and materiel was on the move through the village of Krasnoye, about 250 miles from the capital, and heading north, according to CNN .
Meanwhile Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov said his forces are coming to help Russia put down the mutiny by the private Wagner Group, which has taken control of one Russian city and gained a foothold in another, creating the biggest threat to Putin’s presidency in his long career.




00:0004:07 Wagner appeared to have moved through Voronezh, about 385 miles from Moscow, according to reports. Wagner appeared to have moved through Voronezh, about 385 miles from Moscow, according to reports.ZUMAPRESS.com
It was a clash of Russian titans, as Wagner head and one-time Putin-ally Yevgeny Prigozhin’s hardened fighters from his private militia seized control of Rostov-on-Don, a city of nearly a million people on the Ukraine border that serves as the logistical hub for Russia’s entire invasion force, and were moving rapidly north through western Russia.
Previously, Wagner forces had moved through Voronezh, about 385 miles from Moscow, according to multiple reports.
Scenes that could have been out of a video game erupted as Russian military helicopters took aim at a convoy of rebel mercenaries moving through Voronezh.
Wagner group fighters seized control of Rostov-on-Don, moved through Voronezh, and are headed toward Moscow. Vladimir Putin has fled the capital, according to reports. Wagner group fighters seized control of Rostov-on-Don, moved through Voronezh, and are headed toward Moscow. Vladimir Putin has fled the capital, according to reports.
The Wagner forces included troop carriers and at least one tank on a flatbed truck.
In Moscow, there was an increased security presence on the streets with reports of sandbags blocking key arteries.
Red Square was blocked off by metal barriers.
[IMG alt="Report said the Wagner forces included troop carriers and at least one tank on a flatbed truck.
"]https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/06/NYPICHPDPICT000013137302.jpg?w=1024[/IMG]
Wagner forces reportedly included troop carriers and at least one tank on a flatbed truck.REUTERS
Videos on Twitter showed increasing violence, such as a strike on what appeared to be an insurgent convoy heading for Moscow on the M-4 highway.
Putin compared Prigozhin’s show of force to the Bolshevik revolution and Russia’s civil war that began a little over 100 years ago.
“Excessive ambitions and vested interests have led to treason,” Putin said in a televised address, comparing the insurrection at a time of war abroad to Russia’s revolution and civil war unleashed during World War One.

SEE ALSO​


UKRAINE WAR

Who is Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner Group leader accused of urging an ‘armed rebellion’ in Russia?​


“All those who deliberately stepped on the path of betrayal, who prepared an armed insurrection, who took the path of blackmail and terrorist methods, will suffer inevitable punishment, will answer both to the law and to our people.”
Prigozhin, who has long criticized Russian military brass for how it’s handled the war, clapped right back at Putin.
“Regarding the betrayal of the Motherland, the President is deeply mistaken,” Prigozhin said in an audio message Saturday. “We’re patriots of our Motherland. We fought and we are fighting, all fighters of PMC Wagner. And no one is going to surrender to the demands of the President, FSB, or anyone else. Because we don’t want the country to live further in corruption lies, and bureaucracy.”
Earlier, Prigozhin accused Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu of ordering a rocket strike against Wagner’s war camp in Ukraine, killing 2,000 of his soldiers in a number of video and audio recordings posted online Friday.
In response, Prigozhin said his forces would punish Shoigu, urging Russian forces not to resist and threatening to “destroy” anyone who tries to stop them.
“Those who destroyed our lads, who destroyed the lives of many tens of thousands of Russian soldiers, will be punished. I ask that no one offer resistance…” he said in a recording of one of his notorious tirades.
Fighters of Wagner private mercenary group are seen atop of an armoured vehicle in a street near the headquarters of the Southern Military District in the city of Rostov-on-Don, Russia. Putin compared Yevgeny Prigozhin’s show of force to the Bolshevik revolution and Russia’s civil war that began a little over 100 years ago.REUTERS
“There are 25,000 of us, and we are going to figure out why chaos is happening in the country,” he said, promising to tackle any checkpoints or air forces that got in Wagner’s way.
Prigozhin demanded Shoigu and the chief of the general staff Valery Gerasimov come to see him in Rostov during the course of frantic messages exchanged overnight.
At stake for Putin is whether he can marshal enough forces to fight off the Wagner Group at home, while so many of his troops are deployed at the front and in southern Ukraine.
Founder of Wagner private mercenary group Yevgeny Prigozhin meets with Russia's Deputy Minister of Defense Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, at the headquarters of the Southern Military District of the Russian Armed Forces, in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, Founder of Wagner private mercenary group Yevgeny Prigozhin (center) meets with Russia’s Deputy Minister of Defense Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, at the headquarters of the Southern Military District of the Russian Armed Forces, in Rostov-on-Don, Russia,via REUTERS
The crisis inside Russia comes as Kyiv has just launched its biggest counteroffensive since the war’s start in February 2022.
Prigozhin, who did time in prison himself, oversees a private army of thousands of fighters recruited from Russian jails.
He clashed with the Russian Army’s top lieutenants for months as he and his men have taken on some of the toughest fighting in the 16-month war.
[IMG alt="The crisis inside Russia comes as Kyiv launched its biggest counteroffensive since the war's start in February 2022.
"]https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/06/NYPICHPDPICT000013136367.jpg?w=1024[/IMG]
The crisis inside Russia comes as Kyiv launched its biggest counteroffensive since the war’s start in February 2022.REUTERS
Army Lieutenant-General Vladimir Alekseyev issued a video appeal asking Prigozhin to reconsider his actions.
“Only the president has the right to appoint the top leadership of the armed forces, and you are trying to encroach on his authority,” he said.
Prigozhin insists that the Russian people are on his side — not Putin’s,
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What do you think? Post a comment.
“We reached Rostov without a single shot. We seized the headquarters building. We didn’t come up against a single person there,” he said.
“There are people in the streets who unfurl Wagner flags as the guys come past,” he added, claiming that locals are offering to pay for food and drinks for his men because they want to contribute.
 

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NEWS

Russian helicopter fights, convoy strikes seen in stunning video as rebels advance​

By
Dana Kennedy
June 24, 2023 12:48pm
Updated






As Russia slides into a frightening civil war seemingly overnight, “Top Gun”-style footage of a Russian Ka-52 Army helicopter managing to deflect a Wagner anti-aircraft missile in Voronezh was among a spate of stunning videos Saturday showing how fast it appears to be going wrong for President Vladimir Putin.
The Strela-10 air defense system, reportedly belonging to the Wagner private mercenary forces led by one-time Putin ally Yevgeny Progozhin, was seen firing at the Russian Ka-52 military helicopter in Voronezh, which is about 300 miles from Moscow.
Another video showed the missile just missing the Ka-52 helicopter.
[IMG alt="Footage of a Russian Ka-52 Army helicopter was seen deflecting a Wagner anti-aircraft missile in Voronezh.
"]https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/06/NYPICHPDPICT000013149705.jpg?w=686[/IMG]
Footage of a Russian Ka-52 Army helicopter was seen deflecting a Wagner anti-aircraft missile in Voronezh.via REUTERS[IMG alt="The Wagner paramilitary group shared claimed that one of their vehicles was targeted by Russian forces, on June 24, 2023.
"]https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/06/NYPICHPDPICT000013149740.jpg?w=1024[/IMG]
The Wagner paramilitary group claimed that one of their vehicles was targeted by Russian forces on June 24, 2023.via REUTERS
Another video showed a strike on what appeared to be a Wagner-led convoy heading for Moscow on the M-4 highway.
Putin, who reportedly fled from Moscow to St. Petersburg on his private jet, seemed to be caught flat-footed by the Prigozhin’s betrayal.




00:0404:07
Hardened fighters from his private militia have seized control of Rostov-on-Don, a city of nearly a million on the Ukraine border that serves as the rear logistical hub for Russia’s entire invasion force, and were moving rapidly north through western Russia.
[IMG alt="A nearby explosion at an oil depot occurred while Wagner's private mercenary forces were allegedly firing missiles at the Russian helicopter.
"]https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/06/NYPICHPDPICT000013148683.jpg?w=1024[/IMG]
A nearby explosion at an oil depot occurred while Wagner’s private mercenary forces were allegedly firing missiles at the Russian helicopter.ZUMAPRESS.com
In the capital, traffic on the Moscow River came to a halt as cops in bulletproof vests and armed with machine guns were spotted near the entrance of the major highway that links Moscow with Voronezh and Rostov-on-Don in apparent expectation of the oncoming Wagner convoy.
 

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Russia says Wagner Group's leader will move to Belarus after his rebellious march challenged Putin​

Associated Press
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Updated June 24, 2023 at 4:27 PM
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Wagner chief says he ordered his Russian mercenaries to halt march on Moscow and return to Ukraine​

The head of the private Russian military company Wagner will move to neighboring Belarus as part of deal to defuse rebellion tensions and the criminal case against him will be closed, the Kremlin said Saturday.
Yevgeny Prigozhin's troops who joined him in the uprising will not face prosecution and those who did not will be offered contracts by the Defense Ministry, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
After the deal was reached, Prigozhin said he was ordering his troops to halt their march on Moscow and retreat to field camps in Ukraine, where they have been fighting alongside Russian troops.
The deal appeared to defuse a dramatically escalating crisis that represented the most significant challenge to President Vladimir Putin in his more than two decades in power.
The deal was mediated by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a staunch Putin ally.
THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. AP’s earlier story follows below.
A rebellious Russian mercenary commander said Saturday he ordered his troops to halt their march on Moscow and retreat to field camps in Ukraine, appearing to defuse a dramatically escalating crisis that represented the most significant challenge to President Vladimir Putin in his more than two decades in power.
Moscow had braced for the arrival of forces from the Wagner Group, a private army led by Yevgeny Prigozhin that has been fighting alongside regular Russian troops in Ukraine, by erecting checkpoints with armored vehicles and troops on the city's southern edge. Red Square was shut down, and the mayor urged motorists to stay off some roads.
But Prigozhin announced that while his men were just 200 kilometers (120 miles) from Moscow, he decided to turn them back to avoid “shedding Russian blood.”
He did not say whether the Kremlin had responded to his demand to oust Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. There was no immediate comment from Putin's government.
The turnaround followed a statement from Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's office saying he had negotiated a deal with Prigozhin after discussing the issue with Putin. Prigozhin agreed to halt the advance in a proposed settlement including security guarantees for Wagner troops, Lukashenko's office said, without elaborating.
Putin had vowed harsh consequences for organizers of the armed uprising led by his onetime protege, who brought his forces out of Ukraine, seized a key military facility in southern Russia and advanced toward Moscow.
In a televised speech to the nation, Putin called the rebellion a “betrayal” and “treason.”
“All those who prepared the rebellion will suffer inevitable punishment,” Putin said. “The armed forces and other government agencies have received the necessary orders.”
It wasn’t immediately clear what concessions, if any, Putin may have made to Prigozhin.
If he accedes to Shoigu's ouster, Prigozhin would emerge from the crisis as a clear winner in a major blow to Putin’s authority. If Prigozhin drops that demand, Putin could award him with more lucrative government contracts like those on which he has built his fortune.
However, it would be awkward and politically damaging for Putin to backtrack after branding Prigozhin a backstabbing traitor.
Some observers speculated that Prigozhin could make concessions such as putting the Wagner Group under federal authority, or he could shift the force's activities back to Africa, where his mercenaries have been active in recent years.
Early Saturday, Prigozhin's private army appeared to control the military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, a city 660 miles (over 1,000 kilometers) south of Moscow, which runs Russian operations in Ukraine, Britain’s Ministry of Defense said.
A nighttime video from the city posted on Russian messaging app channels showed Wagner troops getting ready to withdraw, hailed by shouts of “thank you!” and “well done!” in an apparent expression of relief following expectations of a bloody battle. Earlier videos had showed some residents yelling at Wagner mercenaries to leave.
Wagner troops and equipment also were in Lipetsk province, about 360 kilometers (225 miles) south of Moscow.
Authorities declared a “counterterrorist regime” in Moscow and its surrounding region, enhancing security and restricting some movement. On the southern outskirts, troops erected checkpoints, arranged sandbags and set up machine guns. Crews dug up sections of highways to slow the march.
Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin warned that traffic could be restricted in parts of the capital and declared Monday a non-working day for most residents.
The dramatic developments came exactly 16 months after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Europe’s largest conflict since World War II, which has killed tens of thousands, displaced millions and reduced cities to rubble.
Ukrainians hoped the Russian infighting would create opportunities for its army to take back territory seized by Russian forces.
Ben Barry, senior fellow for land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said that even with a deal, Putin's position has probably been weakened and “these events will have been of great comfort to the Ukrainian government and the military.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said late Saturday, shortly before Prigozhin announced his retreat, that the march exposed weakness in the Kremlin and “showed all Russian bandits, mercenaries, oligarchs” that it is easy to capture Russian cities ”and, probably, arsenals."
Switching into Russian in his daily video address, Zelenskyy said “the man from the Kremlin” was “very afraid.” He repeated his calls for the West to supply Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets and ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles.
Russia's Federal Security Service, or FSB, called for Prigozhin’s arrest Friday night after he declared the armed rebellion. It was unclear whether those charges would be dropped.
Prigozhin had vowed earlier that his fighters, whom he said number some 25,000, would not surrender because “we do not want the country to live on in corruption, deceit and bureaucracy.”
“Regarding the betrayal of the motherland, the president was deeply mistaken. We are patriots of our homeland,” he said in an audio message on his Telegram channel.
He posted video of himself at the military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don and claimed his forces had taken control of the airfield and other military facilities in the city without any deaths or even “a single gunshot.”
The rebellion came as Russia is “fighting the toughest battle for its future,” Putin said, with the West piling sanctions on Moscow and arming Ukraine.
“The entire military, economic and information machine of the West is waged against us,” Putin said.
State-controlled TV networks led their newscasts with Putin’s statement and reported the tense situation in Rostov-on-Don. Broadcasters also carried statements from top Russian officials and lawmakers voicing support for Putin, condemning Prigozhin and urging him to back down.
Chechnyan strongman Ramzan Kadyrov, who in the past has sided with Prigozhin in his criticisms of Russia's military, also expressed support for Putin’s “every word.”
“The mutiny needs to be suppressed,” Kadyrov said.
Wagner troops have played a crucial role in the Ukraine war, capturing the eastern city of Bakhmut, an area where the bloodiest and longest battles have taken place. But Prigozhin has increasingly criticized the military brass, accusing it of incompetence and of starving his troops of munitions.
In announcing the rebellion, Prigozhin accused Russian forces of attacking Wagner camps in Ukraine with rockets, helicopter gunships and artillery, killing “a huge number of our comrades.”
Prigozhin alleged that Gen. Valery Gerasimov, chief of the General Staff, ordered the attacks following a meeting with Shoigu in which they decided to destroy the military contractor.
The Defense Ministry denied attacking the camps.
The 62-year-old Prigozhin, a former convict, has longstanding ties to Putin and won lucrative Kremlin catering contracts that earned him the nickname “Putin's chef.”
He gained attention in the U.S. when he and a dozen other Russian nationals were charged with operating a covert social media campaign aimed at fomenting discord ahead of Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential election victory. Wagner has sent military contractors to Libya, Syria, several African countries and eventually Ukraine.
Even with the confrontation seemingly defused, it appeared likely to further hinder Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine, as Kyiv’s forces probed Russian defenses in the initial stages of a counteroffensive.
Orysia Lutsevych, the head of the Ukraine Forum at the Chatham House think tank in London, said the infighting could create confusion and potential division among Russian military forces.
“Russian troops in Ukraine may well now be operating in a vacuum, without clear military instructions, and doubts about whom to obey and follow,″ Lutsevych said. “This creates a unique and unprecedented military opportunity for the Ukrainian army.”
Western countries monitored developments closely. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with his counterparts in the other G7 countries and the European Union’s foreign affairs representative, his spokesman said, adding that Blinken “reiterated that support by the United States for Ukraine will not change.”
Latvia and Estonia, two NATO countries that border Russia, said they were increasing security at their borders.
___
Associated Press writer Danica Kirka in London contributed.
 

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Trump issues cryptic warning on Russia coup: ‘Be careful what you wish for’​

By
Jon Levine
June 24, 2023 2:48pm
Updated







Former President Trump issued a cryptic warning Saturday on his Truth Social account after chaos erupted in Russia, with the private Wagner Group marching toward Moscow and raising the prospect of overthrowing Vladimir Putin — only to have the mercenaries abruptly change course.
“A big mess in Russia, but be careful what you wish for. Next in may be far worse!” Trump said.
After seizing the strategic city of Rostov-on-Don in southern Russia Friday, Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin stopped outside Moscow and agreed to withdraw in order to “avoid bloodshed” as part of a deal negotiated by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
[IMG alt="Trump (R) and Russia's President Vladimir Putin talked during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders' summit on November 11, 2017.
"]https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/06/NYPICHPDPICT000013102239-1.jpg?w=1024[/IMG]
Trump and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin speak during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders’ summit on November 11, 2017.POOL/AFP via Getty Images Former President Trump issued a cryptic warning on his Truth Social account after Russia teetered on the brink of Civil War. Former President Trump issued a cryptic warning on his Truth Social account after Russia teetered on the brink of Civil War.Getty Images[IMG alt="Trump’s cryptic warning on his Truth Social account after chaos erupted in Russia, with the private Wagner Group marching toward Moscow.
"]https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/06/NYPICHPDPICT000013155390.jpg[/IMG]
Trump’s cryptic warning on his Truth Social account after chaos erupted in Russia, with the private Wagner Group marching toward Moscow.
“We [are] turning our columns around and going back in the other direction toward our field camps, in accordance with the plan,” Prigozhin said in a recording obtained by CNN.
Vladimir Putin is believed to have fled the capital and is currently in an undisclosed location.
 

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CNN Exclusive:

Biden says war with Russia must end before NATO can consider membership for Ukraine


CNN
Updated 10:14 AM EDT
July 9, 2023


President Joe Biden told CNN in an exclusive interview that Ukraine is not yet ready for NATO membership, saying that Russia's war in Ukraine needs to end before the alliance can consider adding Kyiv to its ranks.

Biden told CNN's Fareed Zakaria that while discussion of Ukraine's imminent membership in NATO was premature, the US and its allies in NATO would continue to provide President Volodymyr Zelensky and his forces the security and weaponry they need to try to end the war with Russia.

Biden spoke to Zakaria ahead of his weeklong trip to Europe, which includes a NATO summit in Lithuania where Russia's war in Ukraine and Zelensky's push for NATO membership will be among the key issues looming over the gathering.

"I don't think there is unanimity in NATO about whether or not to bring Ukraine into the NATO family now, at this moment, in the middle of a war," Biden said. "For example, if you did that, then, you know -- and I mean what I say -- we're determined to commit every inch of territory that is NATO territory. It's a commitment that we've all made no matter what. If the war is going on, then we're all in war. We're at war with Russia, if that were the case."

Biden said that he's spoken to Zelensky at length about the issue, saying that he's told the Ukrainian president the US would keep providing security and weaponry for Ukraine like it does for Israel while the process plays out.


"I think we have to lay out a rational path for Ukraine to be able to qualify to be able to get into NATO," Biden said, noting that he refused Russian President Vladimir Putin's demands before the war for a commitment not to admit Ukraine because the alliance has "an open-door policy."

"But I think it's premature to say, to call for a vote, you know, in now, because there's other qualifications that need to be met, including democratization and some of those issues," Biden said.
On Friday, the White House announced that the US was sending Ukraine cluster munitions for the first time, a step taken to help bolster Ukraine’s ammunition as it mounts a counteroffensive against Russia. Biden told Zakaria that it was a “difficult decision” to give Ukraine the controversial ammunition, but that he was convinced it was necessary because Ukraine was running out of ammunition.

The NATO meeting also comes as Sweden is seeking to join the Western alliance, a move that has faced resistance from Turkey and Hungary. Biden told Zakaria he was optimistic that Sweden would eventually be admitted to NATO, noting the key holdout, Turkey, is seeking to modernize its F-16 fleet, along with Greece, which has voted to admit Sweden.

“Turkey is looking for modernization of F-16 aircraft. And (Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos) Mitsotakis in Greece is also looking for some help,” Biden said. “And so, what I’m trying to, quite frankly, put together is a little bit of a consortium here, where we’re strengthening NATO in terms of military capacity of both Greece as well as Turkey, and allow Sweden to come in. But it’s in play. It’s not done.”

In the wide-ranging interview, Biden and Zakaria also discussed other key foreign policy challenges, including China, Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Biden said that he’s confident Chinese President Xi Jinping wants to replace the US as the country with the largest economy and military capacity in the world, but he said that he believes the US can have a working relationship with Beijing.

“I think there is a way to resolve, to establish a working relationship with China that benefits them and us,” Biden said. “And the last thing I’ll tell you, I also called him after he had that meeting with the Russians about this new relationship, etc. And I said, ‘This is not a threat. It’s an observation.’ I said, ‘Since Russia went into Ukraine, 600 American corporations have pulled out of Russia. And you’ve told me that your economy depends on investment from Europe and the United States. And be careful. Be careful.’”

Biden said Xi didn’t argue with him and noted that China has “not gone full bore on Russia.”

I think we have to lay out a rational path for Ukraine to be able to qualify to be able to get into NATO, Biden said ahead of his trip to Europe.

"I think we have to lay out a rational path for Ukraine to be able to qualify to be able to get into NATO," Biden said ahead of his trip to Europe.

Tom Brenner for CNN
“He talks about nuclear war being a disaster, there is such a thing as security that’s needed,” Biden said of the Chinese leader. “So, I think there’s a way we can work through this.”

Asked whether he would invite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the White House, Biden said that Israel’s President Isaac Herzog was coming soon to the White House for a visit.

In March, Biden criticized Netanyahu for his now-scrapped plan to overhaul the country’s judiciary, a rare public instance where the two allies were publicly at odds.

Biden told Zakaria that he continued to believe a two-state solution was the correct path forward in the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, and he criticized some members of Netanyahu’s cabinet for their views on Israeli settlements in the West Bank.

“It’s not all Israel now in the West Bank, all Israel’s problem, but they are a part of the problem, and particularly those individuals in the cabinet who say, ‘We can settle anywhere we want. They have no right to be here, etc.,’” Biden said. “And I think we were talking with them regularly, trying to tamp down what’s going on and hopefully, Bibi will continue to move toward moderation and change.”


“Whether or not we would provide a means by which they can have civilian nuclear power, and/or be a guarantor of their security – I think that’s a little way off,” Biden said.




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COINTELPRO

Transnational Member
Registered
Once a conflict breaks out, it can reach a point of no return when casualties mount. Somebody will have to give up because they have no choice. Even if Russia were to defeat the Ukraine/NATO supplied military, it would face constant resistance from the population. This is similar to what happened in Afghanistan and Iraq.

I would like to know how many wars ended peacefully with both sides walking away win win? This proposed NATO membership could force this conflict to expand.

What helped with Germany/WWII was having a large German American population - 49 million. I don't know if Russia has alot of Ukraine/Russian population running around that could make occupation of their country easier.
 

COINTELPRO

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Even after WWI, Germany used its surrender to reconstitute itself for another conflict WWII. The point of no return to peace is excactly that, even then there is still hostilities that can extend decades. The South still harbors resentment for decades after the Civil War. Gangs in perpetual warfare with each other that last for years.

We need a better psychological understanding of why countries capitulate. Having a huge German population in the U.S. in positions of power probably helped the U.S. and even Russia, more than nuclear weapons.

I don't know, there needs to be more research into this. More should have been done preemptively, rather than expecting a conflict to bring peace.

What usually happens during a conflict is both countries can operate independently of each other militarily and economically. As the conflict rages on, one country will cease to operate militarily, allowing the conquering country to seize control economically; making it dependent. This is what happened in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Germany.

Due to the role of NATO/EU Ukraine is becoming more dependent on them militiarily preventing Russia from seizing control economically. Cuba is another example although inverted from sanctions imposed. It has switched its dependency to China/Russia militarily and economically. Ukraine has gone through a similar process. The Taliban and Al-Qaeda, setup shop in Pakistan, becoming dependent on this country to survive.
 
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QueEx

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What usually happens during a conflict is both countries can operate independently of each other militarily and economically.

Yep, because both can produce its own "Dope."

As the conflict rages on, one country will cease to operate militarily, allowing the conquering country to seize control
Yep, because it can't "produce/grow it's own Dope."


Due to the role of NATO/EU Ukraine is becoming more dependent on them militiarily preventing Russia from seizing control

I'm your mama, I'm your daddy
I'm that nigga in the alley
I'm your doctor when in need
Want some coke? Have some weed
You know me, I'm your friend
Your main boy, thick and thin

. . . your weapons pusher man!
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What Vladimir Putin Gets Wrong About the West and What It May Cost Him | Opinion​

MARK N. KATZ , PROFESSOR OF GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS, GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY SCHAR SCHOOL OF POLICY AND GOVERNMENT
ON 7/20/23 AT 7:21 AM EDT




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QueEx

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Bluffing or not, Putin’s declared deployment of nuclear weapons to Belarus ramps up saber-rattling

AA1epEkl.img

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, left, and Russian President Vladimir
Putin talk prior to the Supreme State Council of the Union State Russia-Belarus

meeting in Moscow, Russia, April 6, 2023. Sometime this summer, if President
Vladimir Putin can be believed, Russia moved some of its short-range nuclear
weapons into Belarus, closer to Ukraine and onto the doorstep of NATO’s members
in Central and Eastern Europe.
(Mikhail Klimentyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via
AP, File)© Provided by The Associated Press.


Sometime this summer, if President Vladimir Putin can be believed, Russia moved some of its short-range nuclear weapons into Belarus, closer to Ukraine and onto NATO's doorstep.

The declared deployment of the Russian weapons on the territory of its neighbor and loyal ally marks a new stage in the Kremlin’s nuclear saber-rattling over its invasion of Ukraine and another bid to discourage the West from increasing military support to Kyiv.

Neither Putin nor his Belarusian counterpart, Alexander Lukashenko, said how many were moved — only that Soviet-era facilities in the country were readied to accommodate them, and that Belarusian pilots and missile crews were trained to use them.



FILE - This photo taken from video provided by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on Feb. 19, 2022, shows a Russian Iskander-K missile launched during a military exercise at a training ground in Russia. Sometime this summer, if President Vladimir Putin can be believed, Russia moved some of its short-range nuclear weapons into Belarus, closer to Ukraine and onto the doorstep of NATO’s members in Central and Eastern Europe. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File)
FILE - This photo taken from video provided by the Russian Defense Ministry Press
Service on Feb. 19, 2022, shows a Russian Iskander-K missile launched during a
military exercise at a training ground in Russia. Sometime this summer, if
President Vladimir Putin can be believed, Russia moved some of its short-range
nuclear weapons into Belarus, closer to Ukraine and onto the doorstep of NATO’s
members in Central and Eastern Europe. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service
via AP, File)© Provided by The Associated Press



The U.S. and NATO haven’t confirmed the move. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg denounced Moscow’s rhetoric as “dangerous and reckless,” but said earlier this month the alliance hasn’t seen any change in Russia’s nuclear posture.


FILE - Russian President Vladimir Putin visits the Naryn-Kala fortress in Derbent on June 28, 2023, during his working visit to Dagestan Republic, Russia. Sometime this summer, if President Vladimir Putin can be believed, Russia moved some of its short-range nuclear weapons into Belarus, closer to Ukraine and onto the doorstep of NATO’s members in Central and Eastern Europe. (Sergei Savostyanov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)
FILE - Russian President Vladimir Putin visits the Naryn-Kala fortress in Derbent on
June 28, 2023, during his working visit to Dagestan Republic, Russia. Sometime this
summer, if President Vladimir Putin can be believed, Russia moved some of its short-
range nuclear weapons into Belarus, closer to Ukraine and onto the doorstep of
NATO’s members in Central and Eastern Europe. (Sergei Savostyanov, Sputnik,
Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)© Provided by The Associated Press


While some experts doubt the claims by Putin and Lukashenko, others note that Western intelligence might be unable to monitor such movement.

Earlier this month, CNN quoted U.S. intelligence officials as saying they had no reason to doubt Putin’s claim about the delivery of the first batch of the weapons to Belarus and noted it could be challenging for the U.S. to track them.



FILE - This photo taken from video provided by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on Feb. 19, 2022, shows a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile being launched from an air field during military drills in Russia. Sometime this summer, if President Vladimir Putin can be believed, Russia moved some of its short-range nuclear weapons into Belarus, closer to Ukraine and onto the doorstep of NATO’s members in Central and Eastern Europe. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File)
FILE - This photo taken from video provided by the Russian Defense Ministry Press
Service on Feb. 19, 2022, shows a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile being
launched from an air field during military drills in Russia. Sometime this summer, if
President Vladimir Putin can be believed, Russia moved some of its short-range
nuclear weapons into Belarus, closer to Ukraine and onto the doorstep of NATO’s
members in Central and Eastern Europe. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service
via AP, File)© Provided by The Associated Press

Unlike nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles that can destroy entire cities, tactical nuclear weapons for use against troops on the battlefield can have a yield as small as about 1 kiloton. The U.S. bomb in Hiroshima in World War II was 15 kilotons.


FILE - In this photo taken from video provided by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on Jan. 25, 2022, the Russian army's Iskander missile launchers and support vehicles prepare to deploy for drills in Russia. Sometime this summer, if President Vladimir Putin can be believed, Russia moved some of its short-range nuclear weapons into Belarus, closer to Ukraine and onto the doorstep of NATO’s members in Central and Eastern Europe. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File)


The devices are compact: Used on bombs, missiles and artillery shells, they could be discreetly carried on a truck or plane. Aliaksandr Alesin, an independent Minsk-based military analyst, said the weapons use containers that emit no radiation and could have been flown into Belarus without Western intelligence seeing it.


FILE - In this photo taken from video released by Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on April 14, 2023, a Belarusian air force pilot speaks at an unidentified location. The video said that Belarusian air crews have completed a training course in Russia on using nuclear weapons. Sometime this summer, if President Vladimir Putin can be believed, Russia moved some of its short-range nuclear weapons into Belarus, closer to Ukraine and onto the doorstep of NATO’s members in Central and Eastern Europe. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File)
FILE - In this photo taken from video released by Russian Defense Ministry Press
Service on April 14, 2023, a Belarusian air force pilot speaks at an unidentified
location. The video said that Belarusian air crews have completed a training course
in Russia on using nuclear weapons. Sometime this summer, if President Vladimir
Putin can be believed, Russia moved some of its short-range nuclear weapons into
Belarus, closer to Ukraine and onto the doorstep of NATO’s members in Central
and Eastern Europe. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File)© Provided
by The Associated Press

Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy head of Russia’s Security Council who served as a placeholder president in 2008-12 because Putin was term-limited, unleashes near-daily threats that Moscow won’t hesitate to use nuclear weapons.

In a recent article, Medvedev said “the apocalypse isn’t just possible but quite likely,” and the only way to avoid it is to bow to Russian demands.

The world faces a confrontation "far worse than during the Cuban missile crisis because our enemies have decided to really defeat Russia, the largest nuclear power,” he wrote.

Many Western observers dismiss that as bluster.

Putin seems to have dialed down his nuclear rhetoric after getting signals to do so from China, said Keir Giles, a Russia expert at Chatham House.

“The evident Chinese displeasure did have an effect and may have been accompanied by private messaging to Russia,” Giles told The Associated Press.





Russia Nuclear Threats






FILE - Russia's strategic bomber Tu-160 or White Swan, the largest supersonic bomber in the world, lands at Engels Air Base near Saratov, about 700 kilometers (450 miles) southeast of Moscow, Aug. 7, 2008. Sometime this summer, if President Vladimir Putin can be believed, Russia moved some of its short-range nuclear weapons into Belarus, closer to Ukraine and onto the doorstep of NATO’s members in Central and Eastern Europe. (AP Photo/Misha Japaridze, File)




FILE - Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a cabinet meeting via videoconference, at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, July 19, 2023. Sometime this summer, if President Vladimir Putin can be believed, Russia moved some of its short-range nuclear weapons into Belarus, closer to Ukraine and onto the doorstep of NATO’s members in Central and Eastern Europe. (Alexander Kazakov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)





FILE - Deputy head of Russia's Security Council and chairman of the United Russia party Dmitry Medvedev, right, looks at productions while visiting Raduga Machine-Building Design Bureau in Dubna 116 km (73 miles) north of Moscow, Russia, Feb. 2, 2023. Medvedev, the deputy head of Russia's Security Council who served as a placeholder president in 2008-12 because Putin was term-limited, has unleashed near-daily threats that Moscow won't hesitate to use nuclear weapons. (Ekaterina Shtukina, Sputnik Pool Photo via AP, File)





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COINTELPRO

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AA1epLLY.img


It is alot more complicated than just Russia invading a country.

Russia is blowing up their maternity wards to send a subtle message about the integration of ethnic Russians with Ukrainians, prevention of births. Plus with rampant sophisticated surveillance, they will be afraid to speak in their private space. Since Russia has virtually banned U.S. Big Tech/spyware garbage along with China, these Russians will be protected from this nonsense.

You need a border to block this nonsense, and run fools off. They have probably studied how things are in the U.S. and these are the measures you have to take.



We are taking 20% and annexing this area into Russia. The grain deal is another subtle message that they will flip these fools out of desperation. Detaining the Russian WSJ reporter caught spying. These are two schemes being ran on us.
 

COINTELPRO

Transnational Member
Registered
If you want to convince Russia that they don't need to annex 20% of the country, show that it can work here.

1. Quit rewarding desperate fools that act against their people self interest, they stick out easy
2. Stop illegal surveillance.
3. End unwarranted targeted mass incarceration, exploitation, and resource deprivation.
4. Tolerate people like me that speak out, not the faux clowns they got not now.

Show that two groups can come together, equals, not a Master/Slave relationship, and work together.
 

QueEx

Rising Star
Super Moderator

Russia May Have Just Given

Ukraine Terms for Ending War

Story by Jon Jackson •18h



On the left of this split image, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech during the State Council's Presidium on September 21, 2023 in Veliky Novgorod, Russia. On the right, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky is seen during a press conference on September 6, 2023 in Kyiv, Ukraine. A Kremlin official suggested Russia may be open to ending the war in Ukraine if Kyiv agrees to not join a military alliance.
On the left of this split image, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech
during the State Council's Presidium on September 21, 2023 in Veliky Novgorod,
Russia. On the right, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky is seen during a
press conference on September 6, 2023 in Kyiv, Ukraine. A Kremlin official
suggested Russia may be open to ending the war in Ukraine if
Kyiv agrees to not join a military alliance
.
© Photos by Yan Dobronosov/
Global Images Ukraine/Getty Images


A top Kremlin official on Saturday suggested Russia could agree to an end to the war in Ukraine if a key condition is met.

During a press conference at the United Nations General Assembly, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov indicated Russia would recognize Ukraine's borders prior to Moscow's invasion if Kyiv pledges to not join a military alliance. (i.e., NATO)

Since Russian President Vladimir Putin began the war on February 24, 2022, he and Kremlin officials have cited various justifications for the conflict. But one of the most frequently stated reasons is Putin's opposition to the expansion of NATO on his country's borders, and he is said to be especially against Ukraine becoming a member of the military bloc.

Lavrov told reporters that in 1991, Moscow "recognized the sovereignty of Ukraine on the basis of the Declaration of Independence, which it adopted upon leaving the USSR."

"One of the main points for us was that Ukraine would be a non-aligned country and would not enter into any military alliances," Lavrov said. "Under those conditions, we support the territorial integrity of this state."

George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government professor Mark N. Katz told Newsweek that "Ukraine's 1990 Declaration of State Sovereignty does indeed proclaim Ukraine to be a 'permanently neutral state that does not participate in military blocs.'

"Lavrov's statement, then, does imply that Moscow would recognize Ukraine's 1990 borders if Ukraine foreswore membership in NATO."

Newsweek reached out to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs via email for comment.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been pushing since the start of the war for his country to be made part of NATO, and his efforts have gained the support of key NATO officials. But even if Zelensky agreed to relinquish the bid for NATO membership in order to end the war, Ukraine would likely still find a sticking point on the issue of Crimea.


Putin invaded and annexed Crimea in 2014, and Zelensky has vowed to reclaim the peninsula as part of his nation.

Following the breakup of the Soviet Union, Crimea was declared Ukraine's, which has led some to speculate that Lavrov may have hinted that Russia could be willing to give up the region.


Katz said that while Crimea was a province of Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1990, he has a feeling that "Lavrov's statement might not be definitive, and that there may be further 'clarification' about it that is not so generous toward Ukraine.

"Still, if Moscow just wants to end the war, it may be able to portray forestalling Ukraine from joining NATO as a victory even if it means renouncing Russian claims to occupied Ukrainian territory.

"But I'm not sure Putin can do this as it would raise the question of whether the enormous casualties experienced by Russian forces in this conflict were worth such an agreement—assuming that Ukraine and NATO governments would agree to it."

David Silbey, an associate professor of history at Cornell and director of teaching and learning at Cornell in Washington, told Newsweek that he found Lavrov's statement and how it relates to Crimea "ambiguous, which is interesting in and of itself.

"It would have been easy for Lavrov to make the distinction clear, but he didn't, and he wouldn't do something like this without having clearance from Putin. They both have to know that this would immediately raise questions about Crimea."

Even if Russia isn't willing to return Crimea to Ukraine, Lavrov's comments could be interpreted to mean Putin might relinquish his claim to the Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. A year ago, Putin announced that the four Ukrainian regions were annexed to Russia in a move that the international community called illegitimate.

"In terms of the four territories, I think, yes, it does suggest that the Russians are willing to give them back," Silbey said.



.
 

MASTERBAKER

༺ S❤️PER❤️ ᗰOD ༻
Super Moderator

Russia May Have Just Given

Ukraine Terms for Ending War

Story by Jon Jackson •18h



On the left of this split image, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech during the State Council's Presidium on September 21, 2023 in Veliky Novgorod, Russia. On the right, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky is seen during a press conference on September 6, 2023 in Kyiv, Ukraine. A Kremlin official suggested Russia may be open to ending the war in Ukraine if Kyiv agrees to not join a military alliance.'s Presidium on September 21, 2023 in Veliky Novgorod, Russia. On the right, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky is seen during a press conference on September 6, 2023 in Kyiv, Ukraine. A Kremlin official suggested Russia may be open to ending the war in Ukraine if Kyiv agrees to not join a military alliance.
On the left of this split image, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech
during the State Council's Presidium on September 21, 2023 in Veliky Novgorod,
Russia. On the right, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky is seen during a
press conference on September 6, 2023 in Kyiv, Ukraine. A Kremlin official
suggested Russia may be open to ending the war in Ukraine if
Kyiv agrees to not join a military alliance
.
© Photos by Yan Dobronosov/
Global Images Ukraine/Getty Images


A top Kremlin official on Saturday suggested Russia could agree to an end to the war in Ukraine if a key condition is met.

During a press conference at the United Nations General Assembly, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov indicated Russia would recognize Ukraine's borders prior to Moscow's invasion if Kyiv pledges to not join a military alliance. (i.e., NATO)

Since Russian President Vladimir Putin began the war on February 24, 2022, he and Kremlin officials have cited various justifications for the conflict. But one of the most frequently stated reasons is Putin's opposition to the expansion of NATO on his country's borders, and he is said to be especially against Ukraine becoming a member of the military bloc.

Lavrov told reporters that in 1991, Moscow "recognized the sovereignty of Ukraine on the basis of the Declaration of Independence, which it adopted upon leaving the USSR."

"One of the main points for us was that Ukraine would be a non-aligned country and would not enter into any military alliances," Lavrov said. "Under those conditions, we support the territorial integrity of this state."

George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government professor Mark N. Katz told Newsweek that "Ukraine's 1990 Declaration of State Sovereignty does indeed proclaim Ukraine to be a 'permanently neutral state that does not participate in military blocs.'

"Lavrov's statement, then, does imply that Moscow would recognize Ukraine's 1990 borders if Ukraine foreswore membership in NATO."

Newsweek reached out to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs via email for comment.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been pushing since the start of the war for his country to be made part of NATO, and his efforts have gained the support of key NATO officials. But even if Zelensky agreed to relinquish the bid for NATO membership in order to end the war, Ukraine would likely still find a sticking point on the issue of Crimea.


Putin invaded and annexed Crimea in 2014, and Zelensky has vowed to reclaim the peninsula as part of his nation.

Following the breakup of the Soviet Union, Crimea was declared Ukraine's, which has led some to speculate that Lavrov may have hinted that Russia could be willing to give up the region.


Katz said that while Crimea was a province of Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1990, he has a feeling that "Lavrov's statement might not be definitive, and that there may be further 'clarification' about it that is not so generous toward Ukraine.

"Still, if Moscow just wants to end the war, it may be able to portray forestalling Ukraine from joining NATO as a victory even if it means renouncing Russian claims to occupied Ukrainian territory.

"But I'm not sure Putin can do this as it would raise the question of whether the enormous casualties experienced by Russian forces in this conflict were worth such an agreement—assuming that Ukraine and NATO governments would agree to it."

David Silbey, an associate professor of history at Cornell and director of teaching and learning at Cornell in Washington, told Newsweek that he found Lavrov's statement and how it relates to Crimea "ambiguous, which is interesting in and of itself.

"It would have been easy for Lavrov to make the distinction clear, but he didn't, and he wouldn't do something like this without having clearance from Putin. They both have to know that this would immediately raise questions about Crimea."

Even if Russia isn't willing to return Crimea to Ukraine, Lavrov's comments could be interpreted to mean Putin might relinquish his claim to the Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. A year ago, Putin announced that the four Ukrainian regions were annexed to Russia in a move that the international community called illegitimate.

"In terms of the four territories, I think, yes, it does suggest that the Russians are willing to give them back," Silbey said.



.
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AND..........


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QueEx

Rising Star
Super Moderator
World

Putin Ally Found Dead After Falling From Third-Floor Window: Reports​

By Isabel van Brugen, 8 hrs ago
Newsweek

Newsweek
Follow
Vladimir Egorov, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin , was found dead on Wednesday, according to Russian state media.

Tobolsk City Duma deputy Egorov, 46, a member of Putin's ruling United Russia party, fell from the third-floor window of a house on Kedrovaya Street in Tobolsk in the Tyumen Oblast, Russian Telegram channel Baza, which has links to Russian security services, reported.

Russian daily newspaper Izvestia also cited a source as saying that Egorov could have fallen out of a third-floor window.

It is the latest in a series of mysterious deaths involving prominent Russian figures since President Vladimir Putin 's forces invaded Ukraine last February.

Russian publication 72.ru cited one eyewitness as saying that Egorov fell from a third-floor window, and another as saying that he had "heart problems." It said an autopsy will be carried out to establish the cause of death.

Russian television station REN TV similarly reported that Egorov is presumed to have fallen from a third-floor window.

Newsweek couldn't immediately verify the cause of Egorov's death and has contacted Russia's Foreign Ministry via email for comment.






Sometimes it just doesn’t pay to be some people’s ally or friend. . . . .

.
 

QueEx

Rising Star
Super Moderator

The List Is Long: Russians Who Have Died After Running Afoul Of The Kremlin​

August 24, 2023 08:30 GMT
Masks depicting Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin are displayed for sale at a souvenir shop in St. Petersburg in June 4.

Masks depicting Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin are displayed for sale at a souvenir shop in St. Petersburg in June 4.
 
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