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A Dollar Saved Is Not a Dollar Hoarded

A Dollar Saved Is Not a Dollar Hoarded
By George Reisman
February 24, 2009

Saving is the foundation of capital accumulation, which in turn is the foundation of increasing production, employment, and credit. Saving is the act of abstaining from consuming funds that have been earned in the sale of goods or services.

Saving does not mean not spending. It does not mean hoarding. It means not spending for purposes of consumption. Abstaining from spending for consumption makes possible equivalent spending for production. Whoever saves is in a position to that extent to buy capital goods and pay wages to workers, to lend funds for the purchase of expensive consumers’ goods, or to lend funds to others who will use them for any of these purposes.

It is necessary to stress these facts because of the prevailing state of utter ignorance on the subject. Such ignorance is typified by a casual statement made in a recent New York Times news article. The statement was offered in the conviction that its truth was so well established as to be non-controversial. It claimed that “A dollar saved does not circulate through the economy and higher savings rates translate into fewer sales and lower revenue for struggling businesses.” (Jack Healy, “Consumers Are Saving More and Spending Less,” February 3, 2009, p. B3.)

The writer of the article apparently believes that houses and other expensive consumers’ goods are purchased out of the earnings of a single week or month, which is the normal range of time between paychecks. If that were the case, no savings would be necessary in order to purchase them. In fact, of course, the purchase of a house typically requires a sum equal to the purchaser’s entire income of three years or more; that of an automobile, the income of several months; and that of countless other goods, too large a fraction of the income of just one pay period to be affordable out of such limited funds.

In all such cases, a process of saving is essential for the purchase of consumers’ goods. The savings accumulated may be those of the purchaser himself, or they may be borrowed, or be partly the purchaser’s own and partly borrowed. But, in every case, savings are essential for the purchase of expensive consumers’ goods.

The Times reporter, and all of his colleagues, and the professors who supposedly educated him and his colleagues, all of whom spout such nonsense about saving, also do not know other, even more important facts abut saving. They do not know that saving is the precondition of retailers being able to buy goods from wholesalers, of wholesalers being able to buy goods from manufacturers, of manufacturers, and all other producers, being able to buy goods from their suppliers, and so on and on. It is also the precondition of sellers at any and all stages being able to pay wages.

Such expenditures must generally be made and paid for prior to the purchaser’s receipt of money from the sale of his own goods that will ultimately result. For example, automobile and steel companies cannot pay their workers and suppliers out of the receipts from the sale of the automobiles that will eventually come in as the result of using the labor and capital goods purchased. And even in the cases in which the payments to suppliers are made out of receipts from the sale of the resulting goods, the seller must abstain from consuming those funds, i.e., he must save them and use them to pay for the capital goods and labor he previously purchased.

In contrast, the Keynesian reporters and professors believe that sellers do nothing but consume or hoard cash. They are too dull to realize that if that were really the case, there would be no demand for anything but consumers’ goods. This becomes clear simply by following the pattern of the Keynesian textbooks in allegedly describing the process of spending.

Thus a consumer buys, say, $100 dollars worth of shirts in a department store; the owner of the department store, following his Keynesian “marginal propensity to consume” of .75, then buys $75 worth of food in a restaurant, and allegedly hoards the other $25 of his income; the owner of the restaurant then buys $56.25 (.75 x $75) worth of books, while allegedly hoarding the remaining $18.75 of his income; and so on and on. Now, unknown to the Keynesians, if such a sequence of spending actually took place, all that would exist is a sum of consumption expenditures and nothing else.

The fact is that most spending in the economic system rests on a foundation of saving. The seller of the shirts will likely save and productively expend $95 or more in buying replacement shirts and in paying his employees and making other purchases necessary for the conduct of his business, and perhaps only $5 on consumption. And so it will be for those who sell to him, or to the suppliers of his suppliers, or to the suppliers of those suppliers, and so on.

Any business income statement can provide a simple confirmation of such facts. The ratio of costs to sales revenues that can be derived from it, is an indicator of the ratio of the use of savings to make expenditures for labor and capital goods relative to sales revenues. For the costs it shows are a reflection of expenditures for labor and capital goods made in the past. The saving and productive expenditure out of current sales revenues will show up as costs in the future. The higher is the ratio of costs to sales, the higher is the degree of saving and productive expenditure relative to sales revenues. A firm with costs of $95 and sales revenues of $100 is a firm that can be understood as saving and productively expending $95 out of its $100 of sales revenues. This relationship applies throughout the economic system.

George Reisman, Ph.D. is the author of Capitalism: A Treatise on Economics (Ottawa, Illinois: Jameson Books, 1996) and is Pepperdine University Professor Emeritus of Economics. He is also a Senior Fellow at the Goldwater Institute. His web site is www.capitalism.net and his blog is www.georgereisman.com/blog/.

http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2009/02/a_dollar_saved_is_not_a_dollar.html
 

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Is the worst over?
Some economists see glimmer of hope</font size></center>




McClatchy Newspapers
By Kevin G. Hall
March 27, 2009


WASHINGTON — With the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising around 20 percent over the past few weeks, a down Friday notwithstanding, the question on many lips is whether the stock market has hit bottom and, if so, when might the broader economy follow?

Stock prices often reflect expectations of how the economy will be faring six months or so into the future. If the recent rise in stock prices reflects that the market has bottomed out and is starting a bull run — as some prominent analysts tentatively suggest — that would point to a turnaround for the economy by late summer or early fall.


Few analysts are willing to declare that we've hit bottom without hedging, especially since there's been plenty of premature speculation before about a market bottom during the past 16 months of recession. As if to mock the budding optimism, the Dow closed down Friday by 148.38 points to 7,776.18.

Most analysts now agree, however, that there are some encouraging shafts of light after months of pitch-black news.

"The best news now is that despite the worst . . . daily litany of horrible news, the strongest renewed bank fears, despite all of that, we've got stocks today essentially where they were in October," said James Paulsen, chief investment strategist for Wells Capital Management, owned by the giant bank Wells Fargo.

In October, all three asset classes — stocks, bonds and commodities such as oil and farm products — were in freefall. Today, stocks are up roughly 20 percent in the past two weeks, the biggest such short-term rally since 1938.

"Despite some of the worst news, stocks have stopped deteriorating and have put in what I think is a relatively strong bottom," Paulsen said.

He's not alone in spying a glimmer of hope.

"I think the worst is behind us," said James Dunigan, the managing director of investment for PNC Wealth Management in Pittsburgh.

Dunigan points to recent better-than-expected data on retail sales, which bumped up in January and held in February, as well as an unexpected February increase in sales of existing homes. New data this week showed a 3.4 percent February increase in orders of durable goods — big-ticket expenditures — which added a dose of feel-good.

"You are starting to get some whiffs of that in some of the indicators that are starting to come out. . . . All of the news isn't as consistently bad as we saw," Dunigan said. "I don't think we need to get a lot of good news. We need to get some consistently less-bad news."

The stock market is powered by confidence. When confidence is high, stocks run like a bull; when confidence is lacking, the market hibernates like a bear. Rarely has confidence plunged as in the period after September's collapse of investment bank Lehman Brothers and the government bailout of insurer American International Group. Stocks rose in the first two months after Barack Obama won the presidential election, but slumped badly again from the first of the year through early March.

Since September, however, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has gone into overdrive to reverse the recession. The Fed cut short-term lending rates to zero. It's doubled its balance sheet to $2 trillion by making loans across the economy. Bernanke announced a $1.2 trillion program in mid-March that's designed to drive down mortgage rates, which now are below 5 percent for 30-year loans. That's driving refinancings, which are putting fresh cash in homeowners' hands and sparking home sales.

"There is a pattern here, and it is a positive one for a change," investment analyst Ed Yardeni wrote in a research note. "It seems that economic activity fell so sharply from September through January . . . that some key economic indicators may be starting to bounce off their bottoms for this cycle."

That's why many analysts are beginning to suggest, even if in qualified tones, that perhaps the market's headed up, with the economy to follow by fall.

"I think, frankly, we may have found a bottom for the stock market, although I think we don't go straight up from here," said David Wyss, the chief economist for credit rating agency Standard & Poor's.

It will take the economy longer to recover. The next big test comes on Friday, when the Labor Department reports unemployment data for March. Analysts forecast job losses of 540,000 to 700,000, but job numbers are always a lagging indicator. Unemployment will keep rising for months even after growth resumes, though the monthly totals should grow smaller as recovery takes hold.

In addition, weak corporate earnings reports could continue to weigh on stocks.

"For the consumer, you've got to decrease that (unemployment) number, and for the businesses, you've got to decrease that red ink," said Ken Goldstein, a veteran economist with the Conference Board, a New York economic research group.

Goldstein has long argued that jobs are a huge driver of consumer confidence, and consumer spending drives two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. People who don't have jobs or are worried that they'll lose theirs spend less. Once employers stop shedding so many jobs and show some profits, confidence will return slowly.

"Are we still losing both jobs and profits at the same pace as we did in the fourth quarter (of 2008)? Probably by the second quarter" — which begins in April — "that is going to ease a bit, but we're still going to be losing jobs right on through January of next year," he said. "We're still going to be in red ink through next January."

Plenty can still go wrong, too. Many analysts, including billionaire investor George Soros, fear that defaults on commercial real estate loans may unleash a new wave of economic pain.

In short, analysts clearly differ on whether the glass is half empty or half full, but just weeks ago, all of them saw the glass as near empty.

"In terms of the economy, though, I think we've got another six months of recession. The groundhog is still seeing his shadow," said Wyss, the Standard & Poor's analyst, hopeful that a stock-market bottom points to a recovering economy by October. "If you squint your eyes and look at the charts, we may have found a bottom there."

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/64992.html
 

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Is going to get worse with GM and Chrysler bankrupted.

source: UPI

Manufacturing down for 16th straight month

TEMPE, Ariz., June 1 (UPI) -- U.S. manufacturing activity failed to grow in 13 of 18 U.S. manufacturing businesses in May, the Institute for Supply Management said Monday.

The institute's headline index, the Purchasing Managers Index, reached 42.8 in May, an improvement over April's score of 40.1, but still far below 50 points, which is the break-even point between contraction and growth.

While component indexes in inventories and employment continued to decline, the new orders index, a leading component, reached 51.1 after showing a contraction at 47.2 in April.

"While employment and inventories continue to decline at a rapid rate and the sector continued to contract during the month, there are signs of improvement," said Norbert Ore, chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

"May is the first month of growth in the New Orders Index since November 2007, with nine of 18 industries reporting growth," Ore said.

In May, business activity in nonmetallic mineral products, plastic and rubber products, machinery, food beverage and tobacco and printing industries grew, while business activity declined in textile manufacturing, furniture production, electronics, appliances and fabricated metal products.
 

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The Soaring Twenties

The Soaring Twenties
What made the decade before the Depression so special?
Thomas F. Cooley, 07.29.09, 12:00 AM ET

It's not surprising that there has been a resurgence of interest in the economics of the Great Depression--and not just because of the economic meltdown we've experienced over the past months. So much of what happened back then shaped economic policy, financial markets and even the way we thought about the economy for decades to come. Equally important, however, and much less discussed, is the decade prior to the Great Depression. This was a period of remarkable transformation, both economic and social. That the decade gave rise to a number of misguided policy responses (by both the Hoover and Roosevelt administrations) says a lot about how little influential people at the time understood what was driving that transformation.

The 1920s were a period of dramatic technological change that transformed the fundamental structure of the economy, altered the nature of the family and challenged the social norms of the 19th century. I stress technology, because it was technological change that improved the economic welfare of many. So it is a mistake, a hyperbolical gesture, to view the 20s as one of those regular episodes of excess that seem to mark American economic life. When the Depression hit, a lot of the policy responses were aimed at trying to turn back the clock--not on excess, but on the changes brought by technology. Those attempts failed because it was all but impossible to do.

The technological revolution of the 1920s was driven by the continued development and widespread adoption of the internal combustion engine, the development of electrical machinery and the spread of electrification to households and manufacturing. This great transformation led to a rise in productivity in the agricultural sector that remade society. It changed productivity in the household, and altered fundamentally the size and organization of households and the lives of women. And it improved productivity in the manufacturing sector to an extent that raised living standards for many and changed both the rewards, and the nature, of work.

By the early 1920s, the agricultural sector in the U.S. was suffering. Productivity in agriculture had increased throughout the period of the First World War as American farmers increased their yields with more intense cultivation aided by gasoline-powered tractors. The increasing mechanization of agricultural production meant that a farmer who required 40 to 50 hours of labor to grow 100 bushels of wheat in 1890 could do it with only 15 to 20 hours by 1930.

The increased productivity and yields meant that prices were depressed and rural incomes suffered. Many farmers faced foreclosure because of debts they had incurred to expand and mechanize. The problems in the agricultural sector provided further impetus for the rural-urban migration that was already underway.

Technology also had a profound impact on household production--the set of tasks that are necessary to run a household and maintain a family. In 1907, only 8% of households had electricity. By 1930, 68.2% were electrified. There were also corresponding increases in the availability of central heating, running water and indoor plumbing. These innovations made possible the adoption of new technologies for household production--washers, electric irons, refrigerators and so on. The effect of these changes on the household have been studied by Jeremy Greenwood and his co-authors. They were dramatic. In 1900, they estimate, household production required 58 hours a week. By 1975 the estimate is 18 hours per week. By liberating women from much of the drudgery of basic household work, these innovations increased the time available for leisure, education and for work in the market sector. These changes, together with the shift from a rural to an urban economy, caused changes in the size of families.

The most dramatic productivity changes were in the manufacturing sector. The introduction of electrically driven machinery to the manufacturing process had dramatically accelerated productivity in the 1920s. By 1929, more than 70% of the industry was powered by electricity. The iconic symbol of this productivity boom was the Model T Ford which, by 1928, rolled off the assembly line every 10 seconds. Before World War I, a Ford would cost the equivalent of two years' wages for the average worker. By the late 1920s it took about three months' earnings.

The increased productivity increased incomes and led to the mass production of automobiles, consumer durables, the radio, motion pictures and many other things that changed the nature of everyday life. Household credit expanded to facilitate the purchase of all these new durable goods.

Along with the rise in productivity in the manufacturing sector, so, too, was there a rise in the compensation of executives. The data tend to be somewhat anecdotal, but suggest that executive compensation rose sharply in the 1920s and that incentive-based compensation in the form of bonuses and stock ownership became more common. And there were some excesses. One case that provoked public outrage was that of Eugene Grace, the president of Bethlehem Steel, when it was revealed that he received a base salary of $12,000 and a bonus of more than $1.6 million in 1929. Even Babe Ruth provoked a bit of a backlash by holding out for a higher salary in 1930--all of $80,000. When asked why he should be making $5,000 more than President Hoover, he reportedly replied, "I'm having a better year than he is."

The increase in the rewards to skilled labor and the returns to ability led inevitably to a rise in inequality. It is one of the well-known characteristics of technological revolutions that a different set of skills are required. The rewards that accrue to the people who have those skills lead to a rise in inequality. As I reported a few weeks ago, the share of income earned by the top 10% peaked at close to 50% in 1928. It did not reach that level again until 2006.

This is a cursory account of what happened during what was a great decade of economic progress. There are some striking parallels to the decade preceding our recent financial crisis. The policy responses that created the most trouble in the 1920s and 1930s--that made the Depression "great"--were those that tried to undo the inevitable consequences of technological progress: trying to keep prices from falling, trying to keep wages high, and demonizing those who gained great wealth from the revolution in technology.

Let's hope we have learned that we need to understand what got us here and not simply try to turn back the clock. Let's also hope we have learned to dig deeper into the facts behind economic change, rather than revert to catchy but insubstantial slogans. Had Roosevelt understood the issues surrounding technology and social transformation more clearly, perhaps we wouldn't have the Great Depression as an economic bogey to react against today.

http://www.forbes.com/2009/07/28/gr...over-opinions-columnists-thomas-f-cooley.html
 

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Well, well, well. Look what the wind, blew in.

QueEx
 

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And the Answer Is…Productivity

And the Answer Is…Productivity

I teach Economics 1 with an “audience response system” similar to the ones you see on TV game shows. Think of the “Lifeline” on “Who Wants to be a Millionaire?” Each student in the lecture has a little hand-held transmitter. They press the keys on the transmitter to give their opinions on issues or answers to questions. Their answers come directly into my laptop computer and are immediately projected in a bar chart on the screen, creating an opportunity for discussion.

The Question

The question on the right generated a good discussion this week. I asked students to respond A through E at the start of the lecture, which was about labor productivity and wages. Later in the lecture I then presented and explained the chart below which shows that the best answer is B. Productivity growth is highly correlated with compensation growth over time as predicted by basic economic theory and leaves relatively little for A, C, D, or E to explain. But before seeing the graph many guess another answer, and I suspect most people are surprised that there is so little to explain after you take productivity into account.

In the chart, labor productivity (output per hour of work) and compensation (wages plus fringe benefits per hour of work) pertain to the nonfarm business sector in the United States. Compensation is adjusted for inflation by dividing by the price of nonfarm business output which corresponds with the output measure. In the past few years the consumer price index (CPI) has grown faster than the price index for nonfarm business output. So if you adjust compensation by the CPI rather than the price index for nonfarm business as in the chart, compensation per hour deviates slightly below the productivity line in recent years, but the basic story over the long haul is the similar.

http://johnbtaylorsblog.blogspot.com/2009/10/and-answer-isproductivity.html
 

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The Most Damaging U.S. Deficit: Trust

The Most Damaging U.S. Deficit: Trust
More than nature and beaches have been harmed by the Gulf oil spill. Chris Farrell looks at the erosion of trust in government and business

By Chris Farrell

The tragic reverberations of the Apr. 20 explosion aboard the Deepwater Horizon offshore rig aren't letting up. The Gulf oil spill is an ecological disaster for the affected coastlines of Florida, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and Texas. The eventual economic damage will be substantial, too. The local fishing and tourism industries face bleak years. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta recently calculated that some 132,000 jobs are at risk in the accommodation and food industries of metropolitan areas along the Gulf.

The financial damage extends far beyond the Gulf and its environs. BP (BP) has lost some 45 percent, or $80 billion, of its market value, suspended its dividend, and agreed to put $20 billion into an escrow fund to compensate victims of the oil spill. Offshore oil rigs and their workers are idle, with the Administration having placed a six-month moratorium on deepwater drilling.

That said, the most worrisome long-term economic impact of the Gulf spill lies elsewhere: The catastrophe is adding to the gradual erosion in trust in U.S. professional elites and major institutions, from government to business. It has hardly inspired confidence to watch the White House scramble to prove that President Barack Obama wasn't as detached from the crisis as he often seemed, or to witness the inability of the world's best oil engineers to stop the underwater gusher.

Confidence in the economy's commanding heights has taken a beating following a long run of scandals and malfeasance. The list includes everything from the Enron and Worldcom failures, Bernie Madoff's massive fraud, the subprime loan mess, the government rescues of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and AIG (AIG), the controversy surrounding Goldman Sachs' (GS) collateralized debt obligations, and so on. The Tea Party movement may grab all the attention with its antigovernment rhetoric, but surveys have repeatedly shown that its sentiment is widely shared. For instance, a series of long-run surveys by the Pew Research Center find that only 22 percent of those surveyed say they can trust government. That's about the lowest measure in half a century. The ratings are similarly abysmal for large corporations and banks and other financial institutions: respectively 25 percent and 22 percent.

Trust isn't as easy to measure as land, labor, and capital. It's more like a recipe or a software protocol that allows for economic exchange and all kinds of innovation. Nobel Prize Laureate Kenneth Arrow famously remarked that "virtually every commercial transaction has within itself an element of trust." Societies with high levels of trust are fertile ground for developing large corporations and innovative enterprises. Low-trust societies feature people who don't like to do business with folks outside their family or community; smaller, family-run companies are the norm.

TRUST: AN ECONOMIC MULTIPLIER
There is compelling evidence that large economic benefits stem from both high levels of trust in institutions and a belief in the general trustworthiness of individuals in society. What's more, trust becomes increasingly vital to commerce as the products or services that are traded grow more sophisticated. It takes a lot more trust to buy a giant printing press—from a belief that it is well-made to confidence that repair services will keep it running—than to buy a simple commodity such as wheat.

"Along these lines sociologists, political scientists, and recently, economists have argued—and showed—that having a higher level of trust can increase trade, promote financial development, and even foster economic growth," says Paolo Guiliano, professor at the Anderson School of Management, UCLA. "Hence the more trust, the better for a country's economy."

And vice-versa.

There's the rub. Take the stock market. The decision to buy stock partly reflects an analysis of value and risk tolerance. But it's also an act of faith or trust that the underlying data is reliable and that the system is fair. Research by economists Luigi Guiso of the European University Institute, Paola Sapienza of Northwestern University, and Luigi Zingales of the University of Chicago suggests that trusting individuals are significantly more likely to buy stocks and risky assets after adjusting for wealth, legal protection, and a number of other factors. For instance, in studying Dutch investors, they find that trusting others increases the probability of buying stock by 50 percent and raises the share of wealth invested in stocks by 3.4 percentage points.

What then are the implications of a decline in trust in the fairness and functioning of financial markets? A Financial Trust Index created by Sapienza and Zingales in December 2008 shows that in the first quarter of 2010, 23 percent of Americans trusted the nation's financial system, down 2 percent from the previous quarter. Looking at the stock market section of the survey in particular, only 16 percent of respondents said they trusted it. "I think that trust is important in transactions, especially financial transactions," says Zingales. "It's hard to quantify but it's very important to decisionmaking and development."

Perversely, attempts to counter the decline in trust in the aggregate may be exercising a dampening effect on the economy's vitality. Since the collapse of Enron in 2001, the government has imposed an increasing number of checks and balances on business, ranging from the corporate accounting and reporting reforms of Sarbanes-Oxley to the current financial services reform bill currently being hammered out in Congress.

LACK OF TRUST STIFLES INNOVATION
It isn't just government. Businesses have also established internal checks and balances, administrative layers of compliance, and auditing rules and regulations, all geared toward reassuring investors and employees that breaches in trust won't happen. The time clock and the expense report calculated to the penny have been replacing trust and common sense.

Many of these efforts are well-intentioned. Taken together, much of the government and corporate regulatory state is now counterproductive. "When the workplace become less trusting it becomes less innovative," says John Helliwell, professor emeritus of economics at the University of British Columbia. "Successful companies turn the 'I' into a 'we' and the lack of trust converts a lot of 'wes' into an 'I'."

The most dangerous element in the burgeoning trust shortage may be the inability of the nation's political system to put its enormous debt and deficit on a downward trajectory. Right now, global investors are making an enormous bet that Congress, the White House and the Federal Reserve will manage that Herculean feat. The rate on U.S. Treasuries is remarkably low. Even more striking, the U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Security is predicting that inflation will average slightly less than 2 percent over the next 5 years, and a fraction over 2 percent for 10 years.

This boils down to an additional matter of trust—that prickly political factions can somehow pull together to make difficult fiscal choices. Given the tone and substance of the nation's political discourse, it's almost impossible to imagine Washington getting down to business and enacting over the medium-and long-term the kind of political compromises that will be needed to embrace fiscal conservatism.

If investors in U.S. Treasuries are wrong, the crowd that makes its bets on rampant inflation and financial disarray—i.e., gold investors—may have the last laugh. With the yellow metal closing at $1247.2 on the Comex on June 17—up about 25 percent over the past year—you may already hear them chuckling.

Farrell is contributing economics editor for Bloomberg Businessweek. You can also hear him on American Public Media's nationally syndicated finance program, Marketplace Money, as well as on public radio's business program Marketplace. His Sound Money column appears on Businessweek.com.

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/jun2010/pi20100617_388244.htm
 

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Another Myth: Gov't Can Cure Economy's Ills

Another Myth: Gov't Can Cure Economy's Ills
By THOMAS SOWELL
Posted 06/17/2010 06:44 PM ET

Sometimes you can read a book that will change your mind on some fundamental issue.

Rarely, however, is there just one page that can undermine or destroy a widely held belief. But there is such a page — Page 77 of the book "Out of Work" by Richard Vedder and Lowell Gallaway.

The widespread belief is that government intervention is the key to getting the country out of a serious economic downturn.

The example often cited is President Franklin D. Roosevelt's intervention, after the stock market crash of 1929 was followed by the Great Depression of the 1930s, with its massive and long-lasting unemployment.

This is more than just a question about history.

Right here and right now there is a widespread belief that the unregulated market is what got us into our present economic predicament, and that the government must "do something" to get the economy moving again. FDR's intervention in the 1930s has often been cited by those who think this way.

What is on that one page in "Out of Work" that could change people's minds? Just a simple table, giving unemployment rates for every month during the entire decade of the 1930s.

Those who think that the stock market crash in October 1929 is what caused the huge unemployment rates of the 1930s will have a hard time reconciling that belief with the data in that table.

Although the big stock market crash occurred in October 1929, unemployment never reached double digits in any of the next 12 months after that crash.

Unemployment peaked at 9%, two months after the stock market crashed — and then began drifting generally downward over the next six months, falling to 6.3% by June 1930. This was what happened in the market, before the federal government decided to "do something."

What the government decided to do in June 1930 — against the advice of literally a thousand economists, who took out newspaper ads warning against it — was impose higher tariffs, in order to save American jobs by reducing imported goods.

This was the first massive federal intervention to rescue the economy, under President Herbert Hoover, who took pride in being the first president of the United States to intervene to try to get the economy out of an economic downturn.

Within six months after this government intervention, unemployment shot up into double digits — and stayed in double digits in every month throughout the entire remainder of the decade of the 1930s, as the Roosevelt administration expanded federal intervention far beyond what Hoover had started.

If more government regulation of business were the magic answer that so many seem to think it is, the whole history of the 1930s would have been different.

An economic study in 2004 concluded that New Deal policies had prolonged the Great Depression. But the same story can be found on one page in "Out of Work."

While the market produced a peak unemployment rate of 9% — briefly — after the stock market crash of 1929, unemployment shot up after massive federal interventions in the economy.

It rose above 20% in 1932 and stayed above 20% for 23 consecutive months, beginning in the Hoover administration and continuing during the Roosevelt administration.

As Casey Stengel used to say, "You could look it up." It is all there on that one page.

Those who are convinced that the government has to "do something" when the economy has a problem almost never bother to find out what actually happens when the government intervenes.

The very fact that we still remember the stock market crash of 1929 is remarkable, since there was a similar stock market crash in 1987 that most people have long since forgotten.

What was the difference between these two stock market crashes?

The 1929 stock market crash was followed by the most catastrophic depression in American history, with as many as one-fourth of all American workers being unemployed. The 1987 stock market crash was followed by two decades of economic growth with low unemployment.

But that was only one difference. The other big difference was that the Reagan administration did not intervene in the economy after the 1987 stock market crash — despite many outcries in the media that the government should "do something."

http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAna...Another-Myth-Govt-Can-Cure-Economys-Ills.aspx
 

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Re: Another Myth: Gov't Can Cure Economy's Ills

Another Myth: Gov't Can Cure Economy's Ills
By THOMAS SOWELL
Posted 06/17/2010 06:44 PM ET

Sometimes you can read a book that will change your mind on some fundamental issue.

Rarely, however, is there just one page that can undermine or destroy a widely held belief. But there is such a page — Page 77 of the book "Out of Work" by Richard Vedder and Lowell Gallaway.

The widespread belief is that government intervention is the key to getting the country out of a serious economic downturn.

The example often cited is President Franklin D. Roosevelt's intervention, after the stock market crash of 1929 was followed by the Great Depression of the 1930s, with its massive and long-lasting unemployment.

This is more than just a question about history.

Right here and right now there is a widespread belief that the unregulated market is what got us into our present economic predicament, and that the government must "do something" to get the economy moving again. FDR's intervention in the 1930s has often been cited by those who think this way.

What is on that one page in "Out of Work" that could change people's minds? Just a simple table, giving unemployment rates for every month during the entire decade of the 1930s.

Those who think that the stock market crash in October 1929 is what caused the huge unemployment rates of the 1930s will have a hard time reconciling that belief with the data in that table.

Although the big stock market crash occurred in October 1929, unemployment never reached double digits in any of the next 12 months after that crash.

Unemployment peaked at 9%, two months after the stock market crashed — and then began drifting generally downward over the next six months, falling to 6.3% by June 1930. This was what happened in the market, before the federal government decided to "do something."

What the government decided to do in June 1930 — against the advice of literally a thousand economists, who took out newspaper ads warning against it — was impose higher tariffs, in order to save American jobs by reducing imported goods.

This was the first massive federal intervention to rescue the economy, under President Herbert Hoover, who took pride in being the first president of the United States to intervene to try to get the economy out of an economic downturn.

Within six months after this government intervention, unemployment shot up into double digits — and stayed in double digits in every month throughout the entire remainder of the decade of the 1930s, as the Roosevelt administration expanded federal intervention far beyond what Hoover had started.

If more government regulation of business were the magic answer that so many seem to think it is, the whole history of the 1930s would have been different.

An economic study in 2004 concluded that New Deal policies had prolonged the Great Depression. But the same story can be found on one page in "Out of Work."

While the market produced a peak unemployment rate of 9% — briefly — after the stock market crash of 1929, unemployment shot up after massive federal interventions in the economy.

It rose above 20% in 1932 and stayed above 20% for 23 consecutive months, beginning in the Hoover administration and continuing during the Roosevelt administration.

As Casey Stengel used to say, "You could look it up." It is all there on that one page.

Those who are convinced that the government has to "do something" when the economy has a problem almost never bother to find out what actually happens when the government intervenes.

The very fact that we still remember the stock market crash of 1929 is remarkable, since there was a similar stock market crash in 1987 that most people have long since forgotten.

What was the difference between these two stock market crashes?

The 1929 stock market crash was followed by the most catastrophic depression in American history, with as many as one-fourth of all American workers being unemployed. The 1987 stock market crash was followed by two decades of economic growth with low unemployment.

But that was only one difference. The other big difference was that the Reagan administration did not intervene in the economy after the 1987 stock market crash — despite many outcries in the media that the government should "do something."

http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAna...Another-Myth-Govt-Can-Cure-Economys-Ills.aspx


An economic study in 2004 concluded that New Deal policies had prolonged the Great Depression.

Annual right wing revisionism.

The other big difference was that the Reagan administration did not intervene in the economy after the 1987 stock market crash...

You left one littler thing out. Reagan left the greatest government debt the world had ever known. Which set the stage for the current greatest dept the world had ever known.

How can you take the so called market siders with any credibility.. I guess that is why Cheney said "Reagan proved deficits don't matter…"
 

Greed

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Do We Really Need a Central Bank?

Do We Really Need a Central Bank?
By John Tamny

The financial crisis of not long ago has not surprisingly generated a great deal of anguish within the electorate. Americans were and continue to be a skeptical lot when it comes to the competence of the various federal bureaucracies which dot the Washington, DC landscape. Despite their skepticism about the competence of regulators, they were still disappointed when those empowered to oversee our financial system were seemingly caught unware by a banking collapse.

Rightly or wrongly, the US Federal Reserve has become one of the biggest targets within the financial bureaucracy when it comes to public distrust, and as a result, its ongoing purpose is increasingly being questioned. Some in the political class seek greater congressional oversight of our central bank, while others, including Rep. Ron Paul, would like the Fed to be abolished altogether.

The Fed's greatly reduced reputation naturally raises questions about why we have a central bank to begin with. Although the Fed presently engages in a wide array of activities, its adherents generally support its continued existence on three grounds: They expect it to manage inflation through manipulation of short-term interest rates; to issue a currency which facilitates exchange; and, most important, they see an essential role as "lender of last resort" to banks during periods of tight credit.

These Fed functions seem compelling at first glance, but given a careful rethink, it becomes apparent that much of what it does is either ineffective or superfluous, and could be handled much more skillfully outside this government-chartered monopoly. Contrary to the broadly held view that we need the Federal Reserve, logic says we'd be much better off absent a central bank that economist George Selgin terms "fundamentally destabilizing."

How the Federal Reserve came into existence. As the Fed was created in 1913, the vast majority of us have never known a world without it. In that sense it's important to recall that there was a time when banks issued their own currency, and there was no government-sponsored entity waiting in the wings when banks ran short of cash.

The United States surely did experience a number of financial crises - 1873, 1884, 1893, and 1907 - prior to the Fed's charter. But Selgin writes that "by almost any measure, the major financial crises of the Federal Reserve era - those of 1920-21, 1929-33, 1937-38, 1980-82, and 2007-2009 most recently - have been more rather than less severe than those experienced between the Civil War and World War I." If greater financial stability had been the main purpose of creating the Fed, then it has failed on that score.

Of course it's arguable that stability wasn't the sole reason the Fed came into existence as is often assumed. As writer G. Edward Griffin observed in The Creature from Jekyll Island, its unannounced purpose was initially to drive out competition that was increasingly crimping the profits of money-center banks.

According to Griffin, by 1910 the number of banks in the US was increasing at a very high rate, and the majority "were springing up in the South and West, causing the New York banks to suffer a steady decline of market share." In 1913, when the Federal Reserve Act was passed, non-national banks accounted for 71% of all banks, and they could claim 57% of total deposits. From 1900 to 1910 70% of the funding of corporations was generated internally, which meant that financial innovation inside and outside traditional money center banks threatened to make them irrelevant.

The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 would serve to halt the market share decline of the traditional banks, because those banks, according to Secrets of the Temple author William Greider, would have "dominance over the new central bank," and in the bargain they would "enjoy new insulation against instability and their own decline." To put it more simply, as large banks all, they would have access to cash during shortfalls thanks to the creation of an entity that would restore and perpetuate their dominance.

If not banking stability, then what? If it's agreed then that the Fed's initial purpose wasn't as elegant or innocent as is often assumed, it can then be asked whether it's doing a good job in other areas where it's deemed essential.

The control of inflation is a good place to start. But to judge the Fed's inflation fighting skills, it's useful to briefly discuss definitions of the inflation problem. The late Jude Wanniski defined inflation as a "decline in the monetary standard," or more clearly, a decline in the value of the dollar.

This is an important distinction because it can't be stressed enough that today's Fed views inflation in an entirely different way. For evidence, we need only reference a 2008 speech by outgoing Fed vice chairman Donald Kohn: "A model in the Phillips curve tradition remains at the core of how most academic researchers and policymakers - including this one - think about fluctuations in inflation." Kohn went on to note that "bringing overall inflation immediately back to the low rate consistent with price stability could be associated with a much higher rate of unemployment for a short time."

The Fed divines what it supposes to be inflationary pressures through rates of unemployment and capacity utilization within US factories, and it then manipulates the short term interest rate as a way of moderating them. If Kohn et al are to be believed, when an economy grows too much such that labor and capacity are in short supply, prices rise and there's an inflationary event.

The obvious problem here is that neither capacity nor labor are finite even within the US. But even if they were, US companies most definitely have access to the world's supply of labor and manufacturing capacity. In short, the Fed's view of inflation misrepresents what is always a monetary phenomenon. What the Fed presumes to be the cause of rising prices quite simply cannot be that, given both the dynamic and global nature of labor and capacity.

When US central bankers manipulate the short rate of interest, they do not do so to control the value of the dollar. So here too the Fed's interest rate policies have nothing to do with inflation. Worse, the manipulations are in and of themselves economically destabilizing in that their impact on rates across the yield curve drive economic actors to "reschedule" economic growth around the Fed's directional control of rates. Contrary to popular belief, the Fed does not manage inflation through the rate mechanism, and it also doesn't stimulate economic growth so much as it just moves it around.

So if we define inflation traditionally as a monetary probem-specifically as a decline in the market value of money - the Fed has failed impressively. When the Federal Reserve Act passed in 1913, a dollar purchased 1/20th of an ounce of gold, while today it purchases 1/1350th.

It should be noted here that the dollar's value is the preserve of the US Treasury as several Wainwright Economics publications have made plain. That said, if inflation is one metric by which we should judge our central bank, its role as an inflation fighter would not be a reason to keep it, as evidenced by the dollar's staggering decline since the Fed came into existence.

Without the Fed, where would we get our money? Implicit in this question is the suggestion that we need a government sanctioned issuer of money in order to foster economic growth. This assumption not only defies simple history, but it also mistakes the very purpose of money.

As Griffin and Selgin both make apparent, there were periods in US history in which private banks themselves issued money to their depositors. Left alone, it's fairly easy to conclude that this now archaic form of private money would be ideal today. Indeed, a healthy banking system is certainly one in which poorly run financial institutions are regularly put out of business or swallowed by those well run. If banks were left to issue their own currency, there would exist an automatic incentive to issue sound money.

In a free market for money, it's fair to assume that one or more banks would develop reputations for issuing quality currency acceptable everywhere as a result of their not lending excessively or imprudently. Banks with sterling reputations would also reject the money of poorly run financial institutions, and the bad banks would then have a choice either to be credible in their banking practices or go out of business. Prudence would be forced on the entire banking system thanks to competing currencies. The result would be the opposite of Gresham's Law in that good money would quickly make bad money irrelevant.

More broadly, it's important to remember that money is only a measuring stick meant to facilitate the exchange of goods. Modern economic thinkers often believe that money creation itself is a source of economic energy - thus the alleged need for a central bank. But the greater truth is that an ideal currency, in the classic words of David Ricardo, "should be absolutely invariable in value." For that, we don't need a central bank, or for that matter, government issued money at all.

To believe otherwise is to buy into the naive belief that once individuals enter into government employ, they're transformed into paragons of virtue, oblivious to the influences that would compromise their integrity in the private sector. More to the point, anecdotal reality tells us that just about anything that governments and monopolies can do, a competitive profit-motivated private sector can do better. It's fair to suggest that currency is one of those products that might better be left to apolitical private enterprise.

Lender of last resort. If the Fed is neither a worthy opponent of inflation nor a necessary monopoly issuer of money, what about its stated role as lender of last resort? No less a personage than Walter Bagehot, the great 19th century monetary eminence, is to this day thought to have been a major advocate of central banks for this reason.

But a cursory read of Bagehot's classic book Lombard Street reveals that he wasn't quite so sanguine about central banks. As Selgin reminds us, he believed "central banks were financially destabilizing, and hence undesirable institutions and that it would have been better had England never created one." Selgin's read is that Bagehot found central banks to be an "unhealthy arrangement," and that the ideal scenario was "free banking, with numerous banks issuing their own notes and maintaining their own reserves."

And contrary to the suggestion that Bagehot felt central banks should "lend freely" during times of distress, financial historian Liaquat Ahamed reminds us that Bagehot actually meant that central banks should only lend to very solvent banks suffering short-term liquidity problems. Insofar as certain financial institutions were seriously in trouble back in 2008, had he been alive, Bagehot arguably would have opposed their bailout.

Central bank fan he was not, and Bagehot ultimately accepted the existence of the Bank of England with an unhappy countenance. As he put it in Lombard Street, "You might as well, or better, try to alter the English monarchy" than abolish England's central bank. Simply put, he learned to accept the BofE's role as lender of last resort given unhappy resignation that it would always exist.

Absent a Federal Reserve in today's climate, would the economy or banking system suffer for the Fed not fulfilling its most prominent role as lender in distress? Logic tells us that this wouldn't be terribly problematic.

Indeed, credit is credit, and if the Federal Reserve didn't exist, it's not a reach to suggest that other, non-financial institutions would eagerly take on the role of lending to banks during times of trouble at penalty rates much as our Fed does now. To offer up but a few examples, Target is best known for being a retailer, Harley-Davidson for manufacturing motorcycles, and Quicken for its innovative tax software. But despite all three continuing to pursue their core competencies, all have lending arms.

In a world without a Fed, logic says that free markets would create one or many similar funding sources that would come to the rescue of healthy banks suffering near-term liquidity problems. More important, since private sector lenders of last resort would have their own money on the line, it's a safe bet that they would prop up only the solvent institutions, while letting poorly run banks fail. This would accrue to, rather than detract from, the banking system's overall vitality.

Conclusion. We've been conditioned to believe that the health of the banking system and of the economy more generally are responsibilities of a powerful Federal Reserve. But if its core mission is analyzed even lightly, it becomes apparent that much of what the Fed does is ineffective, destabilizing, superfluous, or all three.

Implicit in the desire for a Federal Reserve is that individuals in government possess magical powers that enable them to do for us what we can't do on our own. More realistically, the US economy grew quite nicely without a central bank. Given continuous advances in financial alchemy, it's exciting to imagine what private actors would do for banking if the Fed ceased to exist.

Bagehot ultimately observed that magisterial central bank posts are "desired by vain men, by lazy men, by men of rank," and that such men are dangerous. In that case, the sooner the Fed is demystified, the sooner its role in our economy and banking system can at the very least be reduced; the impact of such a reduction a near-certain economic positive.

John Tamny is editor of RealClearMarkets, a senior economic adviser to H.C. Wainwright Economics, and a senior economic adviser to Toreador Research and Trading (www.trtadvisors.com). He can be reached at jtamny@realclearmarkets.com.

http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2010/10/12/do_we_really_need_a_central_bank__98712.html
 

thoughtone

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BGOL Investor
I bump this thread to contrast the justifications during the GW regime and what is happening now.
 

Lamarr

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I bump this thread to contrast the justifications during the GW regime and what is happening now.

Record 88,921,000 Americans ‘Not in Labor Force’—119,000 Fewer Employed in August Than July

The number of Americans whom the U.S. Department of Labor counted as “not in the civilian labor force” in August hit a record high of 88,921,000.

The Labor Department counts a person as not in the civilian labor force if they are at least 16 years old, are not in the military or an institution such as a prison, mental hospital or nursing home, and have not actively looked for a job in the last four weeks. The department counts a person as in “the civilian labor force” if they are at least 16, are not in the military or an institution such as a prison, mental hospital or nursing home, and either do have a job or have actively looked for one in the last four weeks.

In July, there were 155,013,000 in the U.S. civilian labor force. In August that dropped to 154,645,000—meaning that on net 368,000 people simply dropped out of the labor force last month and did not even look for a job.

There were also 119,000 fewer Americans employed in August than there were in July. In July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there were 142,220,000 Americans working. But, in August, there were only 142,101,000 Americans working.

Despite the fact that fewer Americans were employed in August than July, the unemployment rate ticked down from 8.3 in July to 8.1. That is because so many people dropped out of the labor force and stopped looking for work. The unemployment rate is the percentage of people in the labor force (meaning they had a job or were actively looking for one) who did not have a job.

The Bureau of Labor Statistic also reported that in August the labor force participation rate (the percentage of the people in the civilian non-institutionalized population who either had a job or were actively looking for one) dropped to a 30-year low of 63.5 percent, down from 63.7 percent in July. The last time the labor force participation rate was as low as 63.5 percent was in September 1981.
 

thoughtone

Rising Star
BGOL Investor
I bump this thread to contrast the justifications during the GW regime and what is happening now.



And yet your feeble attempt to insist that that president Obama and GW are the same, you continually and conveniently omit this fact:

source: CBS Money Watch

Stocks - Bush vs. Obama


<DT class=storyBlogBy>By Allan Roth <DT class=storyBlogBy>I live in a very politically conservative community - Colorado Springs. Whenever I'm around local investment professionals, I hear how bad Barack Obama has been for the stock market, which got me to wondering if that were actually true. So I thought it would be interesting to look at US stock market performance under Obama and G.W. Bush. While I'm at it, let's also take a longer-term look at stock performance under Democrats and Republicans. Finally, I'll offer my thoughts on what the statistics mean, along with what conclusion you shouldn't make.

Obama vs G.W. Bush
Let me first get it on the table that, though I'm a long-time registered Republican, I don't particularly identify myself with any political party. So when local investment advisors tell me that the market plummeted today because Obama gave a speech, I'm already skeptical. Especially considering that no one can accurately explain what the stock market does in any one day. However, when they tell me how bad the stock market has performed under Obama, that's something that's easy enough to check out.

To measure US stock returns, I looked at the total return of the US stock market and used the total return of the Wilshire 5000. I don't want the partial returns of narrower indexes like the DOW 30 or S&P 500. I then looked at the annualized returns under G.W. Bush for the eight years ending January 20, 2009. I did the same for the period since January 20, 2009 for Obama.

The results:

  • G.W. Bush - negative 3.5 percent annually
  • Obama - positive 20.1 percent annually
Fact: The US stock market performed better under Obama than G.W. Bush by a staggering 23.6 percentage points a year.

Democrats vs. Republicans
The same local investment advisors who declare that Obama is bad for stocks, also state that the market wants Republican pro-business policies. While those investment advisors also claim to be able to pick winning stocks and time the market, I've long since accepted that not only do I not possess those abilities, such abilities do not even exist. Nor does the ability exist to actually know what the stock market wants. I can, however, research past performance under Republican and Democratic administrations.

The October 2003 Journal of Finance published such a study by Pedro Stana-Clara and Rossen Valkanov that examined the issue. The study viewed stock market returns from 1927 - 1998, and was far more scientific than my simple analysis of stocks since 2001. It looked at excess returns over the risk free rate of a three month Treasury bill.

The results:

  • Republicans - positive 1.7 percent annually
  • Democrats - positive 10.7 percent annually
Fact: Through 1998, US stocks performed higher by nine percentage points annually under Democrats than Republicans. If this study were to be updated, the gap would widen further.

So what does this mean?
I caution you not to conclude that future stock performance will be better under Democrats. These statistics could just as easily be the result of finding patterns out of randomness, such as the Superbowl effect or September bear market trend.

What it does mean is that investment advisors, and even investors as a whole, are very loose with quoting market data. Accuracy seems to be irrelevant. Throw a little politics into the mix and the emotion drives the distortion higher by a factor of ten. People want the data to support their positions so they make up some facts. Others hear these faulty facts and let confirmation bias drive them to blindly believe and spread the word without bothering to verify the accuracy. Simply put, people believe these statements as fact because they want to believe them.

Whether Obama gets another term, or a Republican takes up residence in the White House, I'm sticking to my asset allocation policy. I'm even sticking to my asset allocation through the current destructive, make the other party look bad, lack of governance our politicians seem to be showing today. I don't claim to know everything financial markets want, but I've got to believe markets would rather have a functional government over what we currently have today. Admittedly, I have no data to support this last opinion.
</DT>
 

Cruise

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Only in the United States does fewer people working really mean that fewer people are unemployed.

Or, wait, didn't the governments do this kind of stuff in Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia?
 

Lamarr

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Fact: The US stock market performed better under Obama than G.W. Bush by a staggering 23.6 percentage points a year.

I've always held the opinion that Pres. Obama was an agent for Wall Street. Your article validates my views.

The stock market is hitting records levels AND the labor participation rate has diminished to levels not seen since Sept 1981 (the Reagan era). In laymans terms, high profits with fewer workers!

Wow, you now, promote the business model of Bain Capital!

:smh:
 

Cruise

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I've always held the opinion that Pres. Obama was an agent for Wall Street. Your article validates my views.

The stock market is hitting records levels AND the labor participation rate has diminished to levels not seen since Sept 1981 (the Reagan era). In laymans terms, high profits with fewer workers!

Wow, you now, promote the business model of Bain Capital!

:smh:

Obama is Romney.

Romney is Obama.

Democrat = Republican. Debt = Wealth. War = Peace. NO LIBERTIES = FREEDOM.

This is the United States in 2012. We have hit totalitarian levels where nothing means anything. Down is up. Left is right. Good is bad. Right is wrong.

UNEMPLOYMENT = EMPLOYMENT. WALL STREET = ECONOMY. ENERGY = WASTE. Criminal = Innocent. Law = Whim. Order = Disorder. Civil Rights = Civil Disobedience.

Yet, people don't see how this is all doomed. It cannot continue like this, and it never does. We are witnessing the end to this way of life.
 

thoughtone

Rising Star
BGOL Investor
I've always held the opinion that Pres. Obama was an agent for Wall Street. Your article validates my views.

The stock market is hitting records levels AND the labor participation rate has diminished to levels not seen since Sept 1981 (the Reagan era). In laymans terms, high profits with fewer workers!

Wow, you now, promote the business model of Bain Capital!

:smh:

The only agent is your buddy Peter Shitt. What is is job?
 

Greed

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Majority of New Jobs Pay Low Wages, Study Finds

Majority of New Jobs Pay Low Wages, Study Finds

By CATHERINE RAMPELL
Published: August 30, 2012

While a majority of jobs lost during the downturn were in the middle range of wages, a majority of those added during the recovery have been low paying, according to a new report from the National Employment Law Project.

The disappearance of midwage, midskill jobs is part of a longer-term trend that some refer to as a hollowing out of the work force, though it has probably been accelerated by government layoffs.

“The overarching message here is we don’t just have a jobs deficit; we have a ‘good jobs’ deficit,” said Annette Bernhardt, the report’s author and a policy co-director at the National Employment Law Project, a liberal research and advocacy group.

The report looked at 366 occupations tracked by the Labor Department and clumped them into three equal groups by wage, with each representing a third of American employment in 2008. The middle third — occupations in fields like construction, manufacturing and information, with median hourly wages of $13.84 to $21.13 — accounted for 60 percent of job losses from the beginning of 2008 to early 2010.

The job market has turned around since then, but those fields have represented only 22 percent of total job growth. Higher-wage occupations — those with a median wage of $21.14 to $54.55 — represented 19 percent of job losses when employment was falling, and 20 percent of job gains when employment began growing again.

Lower-wage occupations, with median hourly wages of $7.69 to $13.83, accounted for 21 percent of job losses during the retraction. Since employment started expanding, they have accounted for 58 percent of all job growth.

The occupations with the fastest growth were retail sales (at a median wage of $10.97 an hour) and food preparation workers ($9.04 an hour). Each category has grown by more than 300,000 workers since June 2009.

Some of these new, lower-paying jobs are being taken by people just entering the labor force, like recent high school and college graduates. Many, though, are being filled by older workers who lost more lucrative jobs in the recession and were forced to take something to scrape by.

“I think I’ve been very resilient and resistant and optimistic, up until very recently,” said Ellen Pinney, 56, who was dismissed from a $75,000-a-year job in which she managed procurement and supply for an electronics company in March 2008.

Since then, she has cobbled together a series of temporary jobs in retail and home health care and worked as a part-time receptionist for a beauty salon. She is now working as an unpaid intern for a construction company, putting together bids and business plans for green energy projects, and has moved in with her 86-year-old father in Forked River, N.J.

“I really can’t bear it anymore,” she said, noting that her applications to places like PetSmart and Target had gone unanswered. “From every standpoint — my independence, my sense of purposefulness, my self-esteem, my life planning — this is just not what I was planning.”

As Ms. Pinney’s experience shows, low-wage jobs have not been growing especially quickly in this recovery; they account for such a big share of job growth mostly because midwage job growth has been so slow.

Over the last few decades, the number of midwage, midskill jobs has stagnated or declined as employers chose to automate routine tasks or to move them offshore.

Job growth has been concentrated in positions that tend to fall into two categories: manual work that must be done in person, like styling hair or serving food, which usually pays relatively little; and more creative, design-oriented work like engineering or surgery, which often pays quite well.

Since 2001, employment has grown 8.7 percent in lower-wage occupations and 6.6 percent in high-wage ones. Over that period, midwage occupation employment has fallen by 7.3 percent.

This “polarization” of skills and wages has been documented meticulously by David H. Autor, an economics professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. A recent study found that this polarization accelerated in the last three recessions, particularly the last one, as financial pressures forced companies to reorganize more quickly.

“This is not just a nice, smooth process,” said Henry E. Siu, an economics professor at the University of British Columbia, who helped write the recent study about polarization and the business cycle. “A lot of these jobs were suddenly wiped out during recession and are not coming back.”

On top of private sector revamps, state and local governments have been shedding workers in recent years. Those jobs lost in the public sector have been primarily in mid and higher-wage positions, according to Ms. Bernhardt’s analysis.

“Whenever you look at data like these, there is this tendency to get overwhelmed, that there are these inevitable, big macro forces causing this polarization and we can’t do anything about them. In fact, we can,” Ms. Bernhardt said. She called for more funds for states to stem losses in the public sector and federal infrastructure projects to employ idled construction workers. Both proposals have faced resistance from Republicans in Congress.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/31/business/majority-of-new-jobs-pay-low-wages-study-finds.html?_r=1
 

Greed

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Re: Majority of New Jobs Pay Low Wages, Study Finds

Isn't that what you and Lamarr want? Doesn't that make us more competitive?

I'm perfectly fine with it since I work hard to make sure I deserve something other than low wages.

Can you relate? I doubt it.
 

thoughtone

Rising Star
BGOL Investor
Re: Majority of New Jobs Pay Low Wages, Study Finds

I'm perfectly fine with it since I work hard to make sure I deserve something other than low wages.

Can you relate? I doubt it.


So you and Lamarr are in agreement. President Obama is returning jobs to the USA (and eliminating government positions as you so fondly hope for) and at the same time, making us competetive with jobs that don't pay living wagers.

What are you and Lamarr complaining about?
 

Greed

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Re: Majority of New Jobs Pay Low Wages, Study Finds

So you and Lamarr are in agreement. President Obama is returning jobs to the USA (and eliminating government positions as you so fondly hope for) and at the same time, making us competetive with jobs that don't pay living wagers.

What are you and Lamarr complaining about?
I didn't complain about anything. You're the one that wants to tell people a job isn't worth having if it's under a certain wage. People can pick the wage they want to work for and not be dictated to by a bunch of politicians that make the equivalent o $60/hour.

But then again why be a politician if you can't order people around.
 
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