Don't mean to be ignorant, but maybe we can make a politics 101 thread as a sticky?
So, anyway, who're the delegates and what is their purpose?
So, anyway, who're the delegates and what is their purpose?
What's a delegate?
- Thread starter Cristar Mymine
- Start date
A delegate can simply mean someone elected to attend a convention or, and this may be the definition you are seeking, a delegate may be a person who was elected to vote for a particular candidate at his/her Political Party's nominating convention.
A caucus used to mean a meeting of the Party's leaders to choose a candidate for office. Now, a caucus is a gathering of registered voters (delegates) who then vote for a candidate for office. In some states, the caucus determines how many delegates each candidate will get from that state at the national nominating convention.
The total votes a candidate gets from all the state caucuses and all the state primary elections will determine who is the candidate for President. The Republicans and Democrats each have their own system for determining how many delegates are needed for the candidate to be the party's nominee for the office. You can do a search at the Republican or Democrat web site to find out for sure.
In the state primary elections, the person who gets the most popular vote gets the most number of delegates.
Now, once the major parties have nominated one candidate for office (President) he/she campaigns and waits for the General Election in November. Once the popular voting is over, we congratulate the winner. But, the official vote is not taken until the Electoral College votes in December.
The Electoral College is made up of . . . you guessed it!! . . .DELEGATES! Each state has the number of delegates to the Electoral College as the number of US Senators and members of the House of Representatives from that state. If State XYZ has 2 Senators and 10 Representatives, it has 12 electoral votes in the College.
So, the candidates are actually trying to win a majority of the popular vote in the largest states, because the delegates to the EC are determined by which candidate wins that state's popular election by getting the majority of the votes cast. The site listed below will have more information about delegates, primaries, Electoral College, etc. I hope this has helped. Or put Electoral College in any of your favorite search engines.
A caucus used to mean a meeting of the Party's leaders to choose a candidate for office. Now, a caucus is a gathering of registered voters (delegates) who then vote for a candidate for office. In some states, the caucus determines how many delegates each candidate will get from that state at the national nominating convention.
The total votes a candidate gets from all the state caucuses and all the state primary elections will determine who is the candidate for President. The Republicans and Democrats each have their own system for determining how many delegates are needed for the candidate to be the party's nominee for the office. You can do a search at the Republican or Democrat web site to find out for sure.
In the state primary elections, the person who gets the most popular vote gets the most number of delegates.
Now, once the major parties have nominated one candidate for office (President) he/she campaigns and waits for the General Election in November. Once the popular voting is over, we congratulate the winner. But, the official vote is not taken until the Electoral College votes in December.
The Electoral College is made up of . . . you guessed it!! . . .DELEGATES! Each state has the number of delegates to the Electoral College as the number of US Senators and members of the House of Representatives from that state. If State XYZ has 2 Senators and 10 Representatives, it has 12 electoral votes in the College.
So, the candidates are actually trying to win a majority of the popular vote in the largest states, because the delegates to the EC are determined by which candidate wins that state's popular election by getting the majority of the votes cast. The site listed below will have more information about delegates, primaries, Electoral College, etc. I hope this has helped. Or put Electoral College in any of your favorite search engines.
From yahoo answers.
There are also Superdelegates - mostly elected officials and other party officers, who are free to support anyone they choose at the convention, regardless of what happens in the primaries.
The Democrats have about 765 superdelegates.
The Republicans have a little over 100 superdelegates.
See, this thread: http://www.bgol.us/board/showthread.php?t=218538&highlight=superdelegate at post # 23.
QueEx
The Democrats have about 765 superdelegates.
The Republicans have a little over 100 superdelegates.
See, this thread: http://www.bgol.us/board/showthread.php?t=218538&highlight=superdelegate at post # 23.
QueEx
Super Tuesday won't decide nominations
1/24/2008, 6:57 a.m. ET
By STEPHEN OHLEMACHER
The Associated Press
WASHINGTON (AP) — Don't look to crown any presidential nominees on Super Tuesday. The race for delegates is so close in both parties that it is mathematically impossible for any candidate to lock up the nomination on Feb. 5, according to an Associated Press analysis of the states in play that day.
"A lot of people were predicting that this presidential election on both sides was going to be this massive sprint that ended on Feb. 5," said Jenny Backus, a Democratic consultant who is not affiliated with any candidate. Now it's looking as if the primaries after Super Tuesday — including such big, delegate-rich states as Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania — could grow in importance.
"Maybe some states were better off waiting," said Backus.
That doesn't mean Super Tuesday won't be super after all. Voters in more than 20 states will go to the polls on the biggest day of the primary campaign, and thousands of delegates will be at stake.
But it's possible Feb. 5 might not even produce clear front-runners.
Here's why:
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton leads the race for delegates to the Democratic National Convention this summer. She has 236, including separately chosen party and elected officials known as superdelegates, giving her a 100-delegate lead over Sen. Barack Obama.
There will be nearly 1,700 Democratic delegates at stake on Feb. 5, enough to put a candidate well on his or her way to the 2,025 needed to secure the nomination. But even if somehow either Clinton or Obama won every single one of those delegates, it wouldn't be enough. And with two strong candidates, the delegates could be divided fairly evenly because the Democrats award their delegates proportionally — not winner-take- all.
The biggest prizes among the Democratic states are California (370 delegates), New York (232) and Illinois (153). All three states award Democratic delegates proportionally, with most delegates awarded according to the popular vote in individual congressional districts, and the rest based on the statewide vote.
The wild card for the Democrats involves the superdelegates, nearly 800 elected officials and members of the Democratic National Committee. They are free to support any candidate they choose at the national convention, regardless of the outcome of the primaries.
The AP has interviewed more than 90 percent of the superdelegates who have been identified by the party, and most have yet to endorse a candidate. Many say they will not make endorsements until after their states vote.
The Republicans have a better chance to produce a clear front-runner because several states, including New York, New Jersey, Missouri and Arizona, award all their GOP delegates to the candidate who wins the popular statewide vote. But a Republican candidate would have to attract support across the country to build a formidable lead.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leads the race for delegates to the Republican National Convention with 59. He is followed by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee with 40 and Arizona Sen. John McCain with 36.
There will be more than 1,000 Republican delegates at stake on Feb. 5, enough to give a candidate a substantial boost toward the 1,191 needed to win the nomination — but only if one man emerges victorious in numerous states.
"I think you could have two or three viable (GOP) candidates" following Super Tuesday, said Ohio Republican Chairman Robert Bennett.
Ohio is waiting in the wings with its 85 Republican delegates a month later, on March 4, a date it shares with Texas, which will award 137 GOP delegates.
Other big states with later contests include Maryland and Virginia on Feb. 12, Wisconsin on Feb. 19 and Pennsylvania on April 22.
Four years ago, Sen. John Kerry clinched the Democratic nomination on March 2 — the earliest date in modern times — with a string of Super Tuesday primary victories. In 2000, George W. Bush and Al Gore both clinched their parties' nominations on March 14, each sweeping a string of Southern primaries that day.
This year, Super Tuesday has grown to include more than 20 states, and it was moved up to Feb. 5 as states leapfrogged each other in an attempt to increase their influence in picking the nominees.
With so many states voting so early, the stage was set for a lengthy general election campaign after nominees were settled early in the year.
Some think that is still a good bet, especially if candidates who don't fare well on Feb. 5 decide to drop out.
"It may take a while for Obama or Clinton to get 50 percent plus one of the delegates. But if it does narrow to a two-person race, then the Democratic nomination will be determined relatively soon," said David Rohde, a political science professor at Duke University.
Rohde said the nomination contests may drag all the way to the conventions this summer. But he added, "It is also possible for aliens from Mars to land tomorrow and interfere with the election."
Copyright 2008 Associated Press. All rights reserved.
This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
1/24/2008, 6:57 a.m. ET
By STEPHEN OHLEMACHER
The Associated Press
WASHINGTON (AP) — Don't look to crown any presidential nominees on Super Tuesday. The race for delegates is so close in both parties that it is mathematically impossible for any candidate to lock up the nomination on Feb. 5, according to an Associated Press analysis of the states in play that day.
"A lot of people were predicting that this presidential election on both sides was going to be this massive sprint that ended on Feb. 5," said Jenny Backus, a Democratic consultant who is not affiliated with any candidate. Now it's looking as if the primaries after Super Tuesday — including such big, delegate-rich states as Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania — could grow in importance.
"Maybe some states were better off waiting," said Backus.
That doesn't mean Super Tuesday won't be super after all. Voters in more than 20 states will go to the polls on the biggest day of the primary campaign, and thousands of delegates will be at stake.
But it's possible Feb. 5 might not even produce clear front-runners.
Here's why:
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton leads the race for delegates to the Democratic National Convention this summer. She has 236, including separately chosen party and elected officials known as superdelegates, giving her a 100-delegate lead over Sen. Barack Obama.
There will be nearly 1,700 Democratic delegates at stake on Feb. 5, enough to put a candidate well on his or her way to the 2,025 needed to secure the nomination. But even if somehow either Clinton or Obama won every single one of those delegates, it wouldn't be enough. And with two strong candidates, the delegates could be divided fairly evenly because the Democrats award their delegates proportionally — not winner-take- all.
The biggest prizes among the Democratic states are California (370 delegates), New York (232) and Illinois (153). All three states award Democratic delegates proportionally, with most delegates awarded according to the popular vote in individual congressional districts, and the rest based on the statewide vote.
The wild card for the Democrats involves the superdelegates, nearly 800 elected officials and members of the Democratic National Committee. They are free to support any candidate they choose at the national convention, regardless of the outcome of the primaries.
The AP has interviewed more than 90 percent of the superdelegates who have been identified by the party, and most have yet to endorse a candidate. Many say they will not make endorsements until after their states vote.
The Republicans have a better chance to produce a clear front-runner because several states, including New York, New Jersey, Missouri and Arizona, award all their GOP delegates to the candidate who wins the popular statewide vote. But a Republican candidate would have to attract support across the country to build a formidable lead.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leads the race for delegates to the Republican National Convention with 59. He is followed by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee with 40 and Arizona Sen. John McCain with 36.
There will be more than 1,000 Republican delegates at stake on Feb. 5, enough to give a candidate a substantial boost toward the 1,191 needed to win the nomination — but only if one man emerges victorious in numerous states.
"I think you could have two or three viable (GOP) candidates" following Super Tuesday, said Ohio Republican Chairman Robert Bennett.
Ohio is waiting in the wings with its 85 Republican delegates a month later, on March 4, a date it shares with Texas, which will award 137 GOP delegates.
Other big states with later contests include Maryland and Virginia on Feb. 12, Wisconsin on Feb. 19 and Pennsylvania on April 22.
Four years ago, Sen. John Kerry clinched the Democratic nomination on March 2 — the earliest date in modern times — with a string of Super Tuesday primary victories. In 2000, George W. Bush and Al Gore both clinched their parties' nominations on March 14, each sweeping a string of Southern primaries that day.
This year, Super Tuesday has grown to include more than 20 states, and it was moved up to Feb. 5 as states leapfrogged each other in an attempt to increase their influence in picking the nominees.
With so many states voting so early, the stage was set for a lengthy general election campaign after nominees were settled early in the year.
Some think that is still a good bet, especially if candidates who don't fare well on Feb. 5 decide to drop out.
"It may take a while for Obama or Clinton to get 50 percent plus one of the delegates. But if it does narrow to a two-person race, then the Democratic nomination will be determined relatively soon," said David Rohde, a political science professor at Duke University.
Rohde said the nomination contests may drag all the way to the conventions this summer. But he added, "It is also possible for aliens from Mars to land tomorrow and interfere with the election."
Copyright 2008 Associated Press. All rights reserved.
This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
<font size="4"><center>Races Entering Complex Phase Over Delegates</font size></center>
By ADAM NAGOURNEY
Published: January 28, 2008
MIAMI — The presidential campaign is entering a new phase as Democratic and Republican candidates move beyond state-by-state competition and into a potentially protracted scramble for delegates Congressional district by Congressional district.
The shifting terrain is influencing the strategies of candidates from both parties — though decidedly more so for Democrats — as they move from early state contests to the coast-to-coast contests on Feb. 5, when 41 percent of Republican delegates and 52 percent of Democratic delegates will be chosen.
It is the first time in over 20 years in which the campaign has turned into a possibly lengthy hunt for delegates, rather than an effort to roll up a string of big-state victories.
This development reflects the competitive races in both parties, with neither a Republican nor a Democrat yet able to claim front-runner status. It has forced the campaigns to master complex delegate-allocation rules as they make a series of critical decisions about how best to allocate campaign resources to produce the greatest return of delegates.
Many of these decisions involve as little as a single delegate.
“We are going to compete in all 22 states; you can’t ignore states,” said David Plouffe, the campaign manager for Senator Barack Obama, Democrat of Illinois. “But you want to get as many delegates as you can. At the end of the day, this is a delegate contest.”
Carl Forti, the political director for Mitt Romney, a Massachusetts Republican, said: “There’s two things going forward at this point. One is momentum; but two, it’s about delegates.”
For Republicans, this means, for example, turning to approximately 10 heavily Democratic Congressional districts in California where there are relatively few registered Republicans, making it easier, and less expensive, to win a district and its three delegates. Both Senator John McCain of Arizona and Mr. Romney are heading there on Wednesday.
For Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Mr. Obama, it means investing resources — mailings, telephone banks and candidate visits — in Congressional districts where there are an odd number of delegates at stake, creating an opportunity to pick up an extra delegate.
Under Democratic rules, two candidates who do well in a Congressional district are likely to end up evenly dividing the delegates; where there is an odd number of delegates, the extra one goes to the candidate who wins more votes.
“It’s all about the delegates!” Mr. Obama said the other day, shouting his words to a crowd of supporters. His itinerary this week includes a visit to California but also to smaller states that his aides said offered opportunities for picking up delegates, whether or not he can win the state itself: Arizona, Kansas, Missouri and New Mexico.
This new dynamic is not only challenging the way the candidates are approaching the contest, but is also throwing into confusion how the results of these contests should be judged, by the campaigns and by the news media that report on them.
Given Democratic rules, it is entirely possible for one candidate to win a majority of Feb. 5 states, and enjoy the election night ratification that comes with a TV network map displaying the geographic sweep of that person’s accomplishment, while his (or her) opponent ends the night with the most delegates.
On the Republican side, it is possible for one of the candidates to win the overall popular vote in California, but end up with fewer delegates than a rival, since most of the delegates are awarded in winner-take-all Congressional district races.
“This race requires everyone to sort of throw away their old assumptions and start thinking anew,” said David Axelrod, a senior adviser to Mr. Obama. “The important thing to measure on Feb. 5 is where we are in terms of delegates. My guess is one of us will be ahead, but not decisively, and one of us will be behind, but not decisively, and this will go on for some time.”
Democrats had a preview of this in the Nevada caucuses when Mrs. Clinton won the actual vote of people who attended the caucuses, but Mr. Obama won 13 delegates to her 12, leaving the two sides squabbling over who had prevailed.
The fight was renewed Sunday when aides to Mrs. Clinton argued that the Florida primary on Tuesday — in which no delegates are at stake, because the state held its primary earlier than allowed by the Democratic National Committee — should nonetheless be viewed as a measure of the strength of the candidates.
Mr. Obama’s advisers ridiculed the argument, given that the primary is purely a beauty contest.
The possibility of a long-term slog is real for Democrats, given that Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama appear evenly matched in resources and political talent.
It is less certain on the Republican side, pending the outcome of the party’s primary here on Tuesday. Aides to Mr. Romney and to Mr. McCain said they were putting off many crucial decisions, in particular where to go and how to invest resources, based on who wins in Florida.
McCain campaign aides said that if Mr. Romney lost here on Tuesday, it would clear the road for Mr. McCain to win the nomination by traditional rules: sweep enough state contests on Feb. 5 to rally the party around him as the presumptive nominee.
Still, McCain aides said they were making decisions about how to approach Feb. 5 based on what would net them the most delegates, looking first and foremost at a handful of states where the winner gets all the delegates, either statewide or district by district.
“It’s triage,” said Rick Davis, campaign manager for Mr. McCain. “But winner-take-all states have got to be the top priority. The cost per delegate is so much lower.”
For Democrats, 2,025 delegates are needed to win; for Republicans, the number is 1,191.
The sheer number of states in play — indeed, the sheer number of Congressional districts in play — has presented an extraordinary tactical challenge to these candidates at a time when they are running low on resources. It is prohibitively expensive to poll in all these states and districts to determine where to spend money. It is also prohibitive to run voter identification operations or advertise everywhere a candidate might be competitive.
Aides to Mrs. Clinton and to Mr. Obama said they had tried to compensate for that by building models, based on past voting history and even consumer data, to pinpoint Congressional districts where voters would seem particularly open to their candidate.
Beyond that, the delegate rules for Democrats and for Republicans are different and, within each party, often vary from state to state. For example, the Republicans have some states where the statewide winner gets all the delegates, providing an obvious target for a candidate who might seem strong there. Among them are Missouri, New Jersey, New York and Utah.
But there are other states where the delegates are allocated by Congressional district, sometimes winner-take-all, and sometimes proportionally.
By contrast, Democrats eliminated the so-called winner-take-all rules. Instead, delegates are allocated depending on the percentage of vote each candidate gets in a Congressional district, under very expansive rules that, generally speaking, mean the candidates divide the trove evenly assuming they get more than 30 percent of the vote. There are also some delegates allocated statewide, again proportionately.
That rule, aides to both campaigns said, has the effect in a race that seems so closely matched of making it extremely hard for anyone to pull far ahead.
“It’s going to be really hard — I’m not saying it’s impossible — it’s going to be very difficult for someone to pull out way ahead in a delegate count,” said Tad Devine, a Democratic consultant and an expert on his party’s nominating rules. “If you have two candidates who are getting 30 percent of the vote, and that is the scenario that is developing now, they are going to pretty much split the delegates.”
Republican rules reward bonus delegates to states with a Republican voting history. This means that it might make more sense to invest time in Missouri than the more populous larger state of New Jersey; there are more delegates to be won in Missouri because it voted Republican in the 2004 presidential race, and it is a much cheaper place to campaign.
By contrast, someone like Rudolph W. Giuliani of New York, who has long argued he would win by a slow accumulation of delegates, has banked on winner-take-all rules helping him sweep up large number of delegates in states like New York, New Jersey and Delaware. That said, his viability in those states will to no small extent be determined by how well he does here Tuesday.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/28/us/politics/28delegates.html?_r=1&ref=politics&oref=slogin
By ADAM NAGOURNEY
Published: January 28, 2008
MIAMI — The presidential campaign is entering a new phase as Democratic and Republican candidates move beyond state-by-state competition and into a potentially protracted scramble for delegates Congressional district by Congressional district.
The shifting terrain is influencing the strategies of candidates from both parties — though decidedly more so for Democrats — as they move from early state contests to the coast-to-coast contests on Feb. 5, when 41 percent of Republican delegates and 52 percent of Democratic delegates will be chosen.
It is the first time in over 20 years in which the campaign has turned into a possibly lengthy hunt for delegates, rather than an effort to roll up a string of big-state victories.
This development reflects the competitive races in both parties, with neither a Republican nor a Democrat yet able to claim front-runner status. It has forced the campaigns to master complex delegate-allocation rules as they make a series of critical decisions about how best to allocate campaign resources to produce the greatest return of delegates.
Many of these decisions involve as little as a single delegate.
“We are going to compete in all 22 states; you can’t ignore states,” said David Plouffe, the campaign manager for Senator Barack Obama, Democrat of Illinois. “But you want to get as many delegates as you can. At the end of the day, this is a delegate contest.”
Carl Forti, the political director for Mitt Romney, a Massachusetts Republican, said: “There’s two things going forward at this point. One is momentum; but two, it’s about delegates.”
For Republicans, this means, for example, turning to approximately 10 heavily Democratic Congressional districts in California where there are relatively few registered Republicans, making it easier, and less expensive, to win a district and its three delegates. Both Senator John McCain of Arizona and Mr. Romney are heading there on Wednesday.
For Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Mr. Obama, it means investing resources — mailings, telephone banks and candidate visits — in Congressional districts where there are an odd number of delegates at stake, creating an opportunity to pick up an extra delegate.
Under Democratic rules, two candidates who do well in a Congressional district are likely to end up evenly dividing the delegates; where there is an odd number of delegates, the extra one goes to the candidate who wins more votes.
“It’s all about the delegates!” Mr. Obama said the other day, shouting his words to a crowd of supporters. His itinerary this week includes a visit to California but also to smaller states that his aides said offered opportunities for picking up delegates, whether or not he can win the state itself: Arizona, Kansas, Missouri and New Mexico.
This new dynamic is not only challenging the way the candidates are approaching the contest, but is also throwing into confusion how the results of these contests should be judged, by the campaigns and by the news media that report on them.
Given Democratic rules, it is entirely possible for one candidate to win a majority of Feb. 5 states, and enjoy the election night ratification that comes with a TV network map displaying the geographic sweep of that person’s accomplishment, while his (or her) opponent ends the night with the most delegates.
On the Republican side, it is possible for one of the candidates to win the overall popular vote in California, but end up with fewer delegates than a rival, since most of the delegates are awarded in winner-take-all Congressional district races.
“This race requires everyone to sort of throw away their old assumptions and start thinking anew,” said David Axelrod, a senior adviser to Mr. Obama. “The important thing to measure on Feb. 5 is where we are in terms of delegates. My guess is one of us will be ahead, but not decisively, and one of us will be behind, but not decisively, and this will go on for some time.”
Democrats had a preview of this in the Nevada caucuses when Mrs. Clinton won the actual vote of people who attended the caucuses, but Mr. Obama won 13 delegates to her 12, leaving the two sides squabbling over who had prevailed.
The fight was renewed Sunday when aides to Mrs. Clinton argued that the Florida primary on Tuesday — in which no delegates are at stake, because the state held its primary earlier than allowed by the Democratic National Committee — should nonetheless be viewed as a measure of the strength of the candidates.
Mr. Obama’s advisers ridiculed the argument, given that the primary is purely a beauty contest.
The possibility of a long-term slog is real for Democrats, given that Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama appear evenly matched in resources and political talent.
It is less certain on the Republican side, pending the outcome of the party’s primary here on Tuesday. Aides to Mr. Romney and to Mr. McCain said they were putting off many crucial decisions, in particular where to go and how to invest resources, based on who wins in Florida.
McCain campaign aides said that if Mr. Romney lost here on Tuesday, it would clear the road for Mr. McCain to win the nomination by traditional rules: sweep enough state contests on Feb. 5 to rally the party around him as the presumptive nominee.
Still, McCain aides said they were making decisions about how to approach Feb. 5 based on what would net them the most delegates, looking first and foremost at a handful of states where the winner gets all the delegates, either statewide or district by district.
“It’s triage,” said Rick Davis, campaign manager for Mr. McCain. “But winner-take-all states have got to be the top priority. The cost per delegate is so much lower.”
For Democrats, 2,025 delegates are needed to win; for Republicans, the number is 1,191.
The sheer number of states in play — indeed, the sheer number of Congressional districts in play — has presented an extraordinary tactical challenge to these candidates at a time when they are running low on resources. It is prohibitively expensive to poll in all these states and districts to determine where to spend money. It is also prohibitive to run voter identification operations or advertise everywhere a candidate might be competitive.
Aides to Mrs. Clinton and to Mr. Obama said they had tried to compensate for that by building models, based on past voting history and even consumer data, to pinpoint Congressional districts where voters would seem particularly open to their candidate.
Beyond that, the delegate rules for Democrats and for Republicans are different and, within each party, often vary from state to state. For example, the Republicans have some states where the statewide winner gets all the delegates, providing an obvious target for a candidate who might seem strong there. Among them are Missouri, New Jersey, New York and Utah.
But there are other states where the delegates are allocated by Congressional district, sometimes winner-take-all, and sometimes proportionally.
By contrast, Democrats eliminated the so-called winner-take-all rules. Instead, delegates are allocated depending on the percentage of vote each candidate gets in a Congressional district, under very expansive rules that, generally speaking, mean the candidates divide the trove evenly assuming they get more than 30 percent of the vote. There are also some delegates allocated statewide, again proportionately.
That rule, aides to both campaigns said, has the effect in a race that seems so closely matched of making it extremely hard for anyone to pull far ahead.
“It’s going to be really hard — I’m not saying it’s impossible — it’s going to be very difficult for someone to pull out way ahead in a delegate count,” said Tad Devine, a Democratic consultant and an expert on his party’s nominating rules. “If you have two candidates who are getting 30 percent of the vote, and that is the scenario that is developing now, they are going to pretty much split the delegates.”
Republican rules reward bonus delegates to states with a Republican voting history. This means that it might make more sense to invest time in Missouri than the more populous larger state of New Jersey; there are more delegates to be won in Missouri because it voted Republican in the 2004 presidential race, and it is a much cheaper place to campaign.
By contrast, someone like Rudolph W. Giuliani of New York, who has long argued he would win by a slow accumulation of delegates, has banked on winner-take-all rules helping him sweep up large number of delegates in states like New York, New Jersey and Delaware. That said, his viability in those states will to no small extent be determined by how well he does here Tuesday.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/28/us/politics/28delegates.html?_r=1&ref=politics&oref=slogin
