In 2025, the U.S. military launched its most intensive bombing campaign in Somalia in nearly two decades. With airstrikes at a pace unseen since 2007, AFRICOM has conducted 100 strikes—an unprecedented figure. This dramatic shift in U.S. operations represents a change in strategy, escalating the fight against ISIS-Somalia and al-Shabaab. The implications for regional stability, civilian casualties, and future operations remain uncertain.
The escalation in military activity marks a significant change from the previous administration's more restrained approach, reflecting evolving strategic priorities.
Breaking Previous Records
By mid-2025, U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) had already launched 51 airstrikes—far surpassing 2024's total of just 10. By November 2025, the number had reached 100, potentially doubling the 63-strike record set in 2019. This surge is attributed to expanded authority for commanders and an evolving threat assessment. The acceleration of operations marks a significant shift, with military officials asserting it as necessary to combat rising terrorist activity.
The dramatic increase in airstrikes indicates a much more aggressive stance than in previous years. Military officials have noted that the surge reflects a critical change in operational strategy, as new authorities and an intensified focus on ISIS-Somalia have shifted priorities.
The dramatic increase in airstrikes indicates a much more aggressive stance than in previous years. Military officials have noted that the surge reflects a critical change in operational strategy, as new authorities and an intensified focus on ISIS-Somalia have shifted priorities.
Historical Context: Two Decades of Operations
U.S. airstrikes in Somalia started modestly in 2007, targeting al-Qaeda operatives. Under President Obama, airstrikes increased sharply. During Trump's first term, 219 strikes were recorded. The Biden administration scaled back, but in 2025, the Trump administration's second term sees a sharp rise in strikes, marking a reversal of previous restraint. This surge reflects growing concerns about terrorist networks in the Horn of Africa.
The decision to intensify airstrikes aligns with broader geopolitical shifts in U.S. counterterrorism strategy. While past administrations have emphasized training and advisory roles, the current escalation highlights a shift towards direct military action in the face of mounting threats from groups like ISIS-Somalia and al-Shabaab.
Mounting Terrorist Threats
Al-Shabaab, with 7,000 to 12,000 fighters, remains the largest terrorist group in Africa, but it's ISIS-Somalia that has seen the most dramatic rise. Growing from 300 fighters in 2019 to 1,500 by 2025, ISIS-Somalia is a pressing concern for AFRICOM. The group's increasing presence and foreign recruitment networks have escalated U.S. military operations in Somalia, where the battle against both groups has intensified.
This rapid growth of ISIS-Somalia, especially with its foreign fighter influx, has forced the U.S. military to focus more heavily on targeting its cells. As the threat from ISIS grows, AFRICOM's strategic priorities have adjusted accordingly, leading to more frequent and targeted airstrikes.
The January Directive: Authority Shift
In January 2025, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth granted AFRICOM commanders expanded decision-making authority, enabling quicker, more flexible responses to threats. This policy change eliminated bureaucratic delays and facilitated the rapid escalation of strikes.
The first major publicized strike under this new authority targeted ISIS-Somalia in the Golis Mountains, using multiple aircraft and 124,000 pounds of munitions to eliminate a key recruiter.
Geographic Pivot: Northeast Focus
While early 2025 airstrikes targeted al-Shabaab strongholds in southern Somalia, by mid-year, operations shifted to Puntland in the northeast.
ISIS-Somalia's logistical hubs in the Golis Mountains prompted this pivot. Intelligence showed that ISIS had established vital nodes in this region, prompting AFRICOM to adjust its focus and take a more targeted approach against the expanding ISIS-Somalia presence.
Civilian Toll and Accountability Questions
As the number of airstrikes in Somalia escalates, so does the toll. Between 109 and 174 people were killed in 2025 alone, according to independent monitoring groups; the exact number of civilian casualties remains disputed. AFRICOM's claims of moral responsibility for civilian protection are often in contrast with its failure to provide consistent civilian harm assessments.
Some analysts warn that increasing civilian casualties could inadvertently fuel terrorist recruitment, complicating the overall strategy.
Naval Firepower: The Truman Strike
On February 1, 2025, the USS Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group executed a massive airstrike in the Golis Mountains, dropping 124,000 pounds of munitions. The Navy's acting chief initially labeled it the "largest airstrike in the world," although the claim was later refined to the largest single-carrier strike. The operation illustrated the scale and precision of modern U.S. air operations in Somalia.
The strike demonstrated the integration of naval aviation into the broader AFRICOM strategy. By leveraging the power of aircraft carriers like the Truman, AFRICOM was able to significantly increase the scale and effectiveness of its airstrikes, targeting ISIS-Somalia with precision and efficiency.
Targeting Breakdown: ISIS Dominates
Of the 51 airstrikes conducted by mid-2025, 32 targeted ISIS-Somalia, reflecting AFRICOM's prioritization of this emerging threat. While al-Shabaab remains active, the increased attention on ISIS-Somalia underlines the U.S. focus on combating the group's expansion and foreign recruitment efforts. Despite this, AFRICOM continues to target al-Shabaab's strongholds, responding to urgent requests from Somalia's federal government.
This targeting distribution emphasizes the shifting nature of U.S. priorities in Somalia. The rapid growth of ISIS-Somalia, particularly with its foreign recruits, has prompted AFRICOM to reallocate resources to counter this increasingly dangerous group, while still maintaining pressure on al-Shabaab.
The Foreign Fighter Problem
ISIS-Somalia's increasing strength is partly due to the influx of foreign fighters—around 60% of their 1,500 members. These foreign nationals, some coming from countries with direct ties to U.S. interests, present a critical security challenge.
As ISIS-Somalia becomes a global recruitment hub, AFRICOM views it as an international security threat, with fighters potentially returning to their home countries after training in Somalia.
Operational Tempo and Decision-Making
AFRICOM's operational tempo has dramatically increased. Military officials report that airstrikes are executed with greater speed and flexibility than in previous years. Strike frequency increased significantly in early 2025 compared to the same period the previous year. This reflects a dramatic shift toward faster, more responsive operations as the threat in Somalia intensifies.
The increased tempo reflects both an expanded sense of urgency and more agile command structures. With the new authority granted in January 2025, AFRICOM has been able to operate more efficiently and decisively, responding to threats as they emerge with unprecedented speed.
Somali Government Partnership
All U.S. airstrikes in Somalia are conducted in coordination with the Federal Government of Somalia, which has requested U.S. assistance against both al-Shabaab and ISIS. However, the exact role of the Somali government in targeting decisions remains unclear. While AFRICOM operates with Somali approval, the government's control over operations and targeting decisions has been a subject of ongoing debate.
This partnership framework provides legal and diplomatic cover for U.S. operations while maintaining Somalia's sovereignty. However, questions about the degree of influence the Somali government has over military decisions continue to persist, especially as the scale of airstrikes increases.
High-Value Target Eliminations
AFRICOM's recent airstrikes have led to the elimination of key terrorist figures. In early February, senior ISIS-Somalia recruiter Ahmed Maeleninine was killed in an airstrike in the Golis Mountains. Similarly, in late 2024, Mohamed Mire, a senior al-Shabaab leader, was killed. While these eliminations represent tactical victories, terrorist groups often replace leaders quickly, raising questions about the long-term impact of these efforts.
The elimination of high-value targets is a critical component of AFRICOM's strategy, but experts remain divided on its long-term effectiveness. The continuous leadership turnover within these groups suggests that eradicating senior leaders alone may not significantly disrupt their operations in the long run.
Expert Skepticism on Sustainability
Military experts question whether the current pace of airstrikes can achieve long-term strategic success. General Langley of AFRICOM emphasized that defeating terrorism in Somalia will require a multifaceted strategy beyond airstrikes, addressing the root causes of instability. Some experts fear that without a political solution, increased pressure could merely cause militant groups to adapt, scattering operations or intensifying recruitment.
The sustainability of the current strategy is highly contested. While the uptick in airstrikes has disrupted terrorist operations, analysts worry that without addressing the deeper political and social issues in Somalia, these efforts could lead to diminishing returns.
What Comes Next?
As 2025 continues, questions linger about the sustainability of AFRICOM's current strategy. Will the pace of airstrikes continue into 2026, or will the incoming administration adjust priorities? How will Somalia's political stability influence the future of U.S. operations? These questions remain unresolved, with the long-term effectiveness of the strategy uncertain as U.S. forces navigate this challenging and evolving battlefield.
The coming months will likely reveal whether this escalation is a permanent shift in U.S. military strategy or a temporary surge to address pressing threats. Somalia's future will depend on how the political landscape evolves and how these operations interact with diplomatic initiatives.
Policy Implications and Congressional Oversight
The shift in airstrike authority has sparked minimal congressional debate, despite its profound implications. Lawmakers have raised concerns over the delegation of decision-making power to AFRICOM commanders and whether it adequately safeguards civilian populations. The War Powers Resolution mandates notification for military operations, but past operations in Somalia have been conducted under broader counterterrorism authorizations. Future debates could determine if new frameworks are needed.
This shift in authority is a crucial point of contention. While the War Powers Resolution dictates congressional oversight, the rapid pace of airstrikes raises concerns about checks and balances, especially when it comes to civilian harm and long-term strategy.
Regional Security Dynamics
Somalia's neighbors, including Kenya and Ethiopia, are feeling the effects of increasing terrorist activities and U.S. airstrikes. Al-Shabaab's cross-border raids in Kenya and the rising threat of ISIS-Somalia pose significant risks to regional stability. The involvement of global powers like China and Russia complicates the situation further, as U.S. airstrikes must balance regional security concerns with broader diplomatic relations in the Horn of Africa.
The broader geopolitical context complicates the situation. As U.S. operations ramp up, the impact on neighboring countries like Kenya and Ethiopia becomes more pronounced, with potential spillover effects on regional stability and security cooperation.
Humanitarian and Development Concerns
Somalia's humanitarian situation remains dire, with widespread food insecurity, drought, and displacement. While U.S. airstrikes aim to degrade terrorist capabilities, the civilian toll of military operations could exacerbate grievances and fuel recruitment for militant groups. Humanitarian organizations have expressed concern that U.S. strikes undermine broader development efforts. A comprehensive approach must address both security and humanitarian needs to ensure long-term stability.
The ongoing humanitarian crisis in Somalia underscores the complexity of the situation. While military operations are one part of the solution, addressing the root causes of instability requires a more comprehensive approach, including development and governance initiatives to ensure lasting peace and security.
Generational Shift in Counterterrorism Strategy
The 2025 escalation in Somalia marks a shift in U.S. counterterrorism strategy, with a greater emphasis on direct military action rather than training and advisory missions. This change reflects a belief in the efficacy of AFRICOM's expanded operations but also contrasts with lessons from past conflicts like Iraq and Afghanistan, where military force alone proved insufficient to address the underlying causes of terrorism.
This generational shift highlights a broader change in U.S. counterterrorism doctrine. The emphasis on direct military action raises questions about the long-term effectiveness of kinetic pressure without addressing the political and socio-economic factors that drive terrorism.
What 2025's Record Airstrikes Signal
Reaching 100 airstrikes by November 2025 signals a new era for U.S. counterterrorism efforts in Somalia. While these strikes reflect heightened concern about ISIS-Somalia's rapid growth, their long-term effectiveness remains in question. The surge raises crucial questions: Can airstrikes alone achieve lasting peace, or must diplomatic and economic efforts play a larger role? The answer will determine whether 2025's record airstrikes mark a turning point or a temporary escalation in the fight against terrorism.
The 100-airstrike milestone represents a pivotal moment for U.S. military strategy in Somalia. The results of this aggressive stance, and whether it leads to lasting stability or further conflict, will shape the future of counterterrorism in the region for years to come.
The escalation in military activity marks a significant change from the previous administration's more restrained approach, reflecting evolving strategic priorities.
Breaking Previous Records
By mid-2025, U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) had already launched 51 airstrikes—far surpassing 2024's total of just 10. By November 2025, the number had reached 100, potentially doubling the 63-strike record set in 2019. This surge is attributed to expanded authority for commanders and an evolving threat assessment. The acceleration of operations marks a significant shift, with military officials asserting it as necessary to combat rising terrorist activity.
The dramatic increase in airstrikes indicates a much more aggressive stance than in previous years. Military officials have noted that the surge reflects a critical change in operational strategy, as new authorities and an intensified focus on ISIS-Somalia have shifted priorities.
The dramatic increase in airstrikes indicates a much more aggressive stance than in previous years. Military officials have noted that the surge reflects a critical change in operational strategy, as new authorities and an intensified focus on ISIS-Somalia have shifted priorities.
Historical Context: Two Decades of Operations
U.S. airstrikes in Somalia started modestly in 2007, targeting al-Qaeda operatives. Under President Obama, airstrikes increased sharply. During Trump's first term, 219 strikes were recorded. The Biden administration scaled back, but in 2025, the Trump administration's second term sees a sharp rise in strikes, marking a reversal of previous restraint. This surge reflects growing concerns about terrorist networks in the Horn of Africa.
The decision to intensify airstrikes aligns with broader geopolitical shifts in U.S. counterterrorism strategy. While past administrations have emphasized training and advisory roles, the current escalation highlights a shift towards direct military action in the face of mounting threats from groups like ISIS-Somalia and al-Shabaab.
Mounting Terrorist Threats
Al-Shabaab, with 7,000 to 12,000 fighters, remains the largest terrorist group in Africa, but it's ISIS-Somalia that has seen the most dramatic rise. Growing from 300 fighters in 2019 to 1,500 by 2025, ISIS-Somalia is a pressing concern for AFRICOM. The group's increasing presence and foreign recruitment networks have escalated U.S. military operations in Somalia, where the battle against both groups has intensified.
This rapid growth of ISIS-Somalia, especially with its foreign fighter influx, has forced the U.S. military to focus more heavily on targeting its cells. As the threat from ISIS grows, AFRICOM's strategic priorities have adjusted accordingly, leading to more frequent and targeted airstrikes.
The January Directive: Authority Shift
In January 2025, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth granted AFRICOM commanders expanded decision-making authority, enabling quicker, more flexible responses to threats. This policy change eliminated bureaucratic delays and facilitated the rapid escalation of strikes.
The first major publicized strike under this new authority targeted ISIS-Somalia in the Golis Mountains, using multiple aircraft and 124,000 pounds of munitions to eliminate a key recruiter.
Geographic Pivot: Northeast Focus
While early 2025 airstrikes targeted al-Shabaab strongholds in southern Somalia, by mid-year, operations shifted to Puntland in the northeast.
ISIS-Somalia's logistical hubs in the Golis Mountains prompted this pivot. Intelligence showed that ISIS had established vital nodes in this region, prompting AFRICOM to adjust its focus and take a more targeted approach against the expanding ISIS-Somalia presence.
Civilian Toll and Accountability Questions
As the number of airstrikes in Somalia escalates, so does the toll. Between 109 and 174 people were killed in 2025 alone, according to independent monitoring groups; the exact number of civilian casualties remains disputed. AFRICOM's claims of moral responsibility for civilian protection are often in contrast with its failure to provide consistent civilian harm assessments.
Some analysts warn that increasing civilian casualties could inadvertently fuel terrorist recruitment, complicating the overall strategy.
Naval Firepower: The Truman Strike
On February 1, 2025, the USS Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group executed a massive airstrike in the Golis Mountains, dropping 124,000 pounds of munitions. The Navy's acting chief initially labeled it the "largest airstrike in the world," although the claim was later refined to the largest single-carrier strike. The operation illustrated the scale and precision of modern U.S. air operations in Somalia.
The strike demonstrated the integration of naval aviation into the broader AFRICOM strategy. By leveraging the power of aircraft carriers like the Truman, AFRICOM was able to significantly increase the scale and effectiveness of its airstrikes, targeting ISIS-Somalia with precision and efficiency.
Targeting Breakdown: ISIS Dominates
Of the 51 airstrikes conducted by mid-2025, 32 targeted ISIS-Somalia, reflecting AFRICOM's prioritization of this emerging threat. While al-Shabaab remains active, the increased attention on ISIS-Somalia underlines the U.S. focus on combating the group's expansion and foreign recruitment efforts. Despite this, AFRICOM continues to target al-Shabaab's strongholds, responding to urgent requests from Somalia's federal government.
This targeting distribution emphasizes the shifting nature of U.S. priorities in Somalia. The rapid growth of ISIS-Somalia, particularly with its foreign recruits, has prompted AFRICOM to reallocate resources to counter this increasingly dangerous group, while still maintaining pressure on al-Shabaab.
The Foreign Fighter Problem
ISIS-Somalia's increasing strength is partly due to the influx of foreign fighters—around 60% of their 1,500 members. These foreign nationals, some coming from countries with direct ties to U.S. interests, present a critical security challenge.
As ISIS-Somalia becomes a global recruitment hub, AFRICOM views it as an international security threat, with fighters potentially returning to their home countries after training in Somalia.
Operational Tempo and Decision-Making
AFRICOM's operational tempo has dramatically increased. Military officials report that airstrikes are executed with greater speed and flexibility than in previous years. Strike frequency increased significantly in early 2025 compared to the same period the previous year. This reflects a dramatic shift toward faster, more responsive operations as the threat in Somalia intensifies.
The increased tempo reflects both an expanded sense of urgency and more agile command structures. With the new authority granted in January 2025, AFRICOM has been able to operate more efficiently and decisively, responding to threats as they emerge with unprecedented speed.
Somali Government Partnership
All U.S. airstrikes in Somalia are conducted in coordination with the Federal Government of Somalia, which has requested U.S. assistance against both al-Shabaab and ISIS. However, the exact role of the Somali government in targeting decisions remains unclear. While AFRICOM operates with Somali approval, the government's control over operations and targeting decisions has been a subject of ongoing debate.
This partnership framework provides legal and diplomatic cover for U.S. operations while maintaining Somalia's sovereignty. However, questions about the degree of influence the Somali government has over military decisions continue to persist, especially as the scale of airstrikes increases.
High-Value Target Eliminations
AFRICOM's recent airstrikes have led to the elimination of key terrorist figures. In early February, senior ISIS-Somalia recruiter Ahmed Maeleninine was killed in an airstrike in the Golis Mountains. Similarly, in late 2024, Mohamed Mire, a senior al-Shabaab leader, was killed. While these eliminations represent tactical victories, terrorist groups often replace leaders quickly, raising questions about the long-term impact of these efforts.
The elimination of high-value targets is a critical component of AFRICOM's strategy, but experts remain divided on its long-term effectiveness. The continuous leadership turnover within these groups suggests that eradicating senior leaders alone may not significantly disrupt their operations in the long run.
Expert Skepticism on Sustainability
Military experts question whether the current pace of airstrikes can achieve long-term strategic success. General Langley of AFRICOM emphasized that defeating terrorism in Somalia will require a multifaceted strategy beyond airstrikes, addressing the root causes of instability. Some experts fear that without a political solution, increased pressure could merely cause militant groups to adapt, scattering operations or intensifying recruitment.
The sustainability of the current strategy is highly contested. While the uptick in airstrikes has disrupted terrorist operations, analysts worry that without addressing the deeper political and social issues in Somalia, these efforts could lead to diminishing returns.
What Comes Next?
As 2025 continues, questions linger about the sustainability of AFRICOM's current strategy. Will the pace of airstrikes continue into 2026, or will the incoming administration adjust priorities? How will Somalia's political stability influence the future of U.S. operations? These questions remain unresolved, with the long-term effectiveness of the strategy uncertain as U.S. forces navigate this challenging and evolving battlefield.
The coming months will likely reveal whether this escalation is a permanent shift in U.S. military strategy or a temporary surge to address pressing threats. Somalia's future will depend on how the political landscape evolves and how these operations interact with diplomatic initiatives.
Policy Implications and Congressional Oversight
The shift in airstrike authority has sparked minimal congressional debate, despite its profound implications. Lawmakers have raised concerns over the delegation of decision-making power to AFRICOM commanders and whether it adequately safeguards civilian populations. The War Powers Resolution mandates notification for military operations, but past operations in Somalia have been conducted under broader counterterrorism authorizations. Future debates could determine if new frameworks are needed.
This shift in authority is a crucial point of contention. While the War Powers Resolution dictates congressional oversight, the rapid pace of airstrikes raises concerns about checks and balances, especially when it comes to civilian harm and long-term strategy.
Regional Security Dynamics
Somalia's neighbors, including Kenya and Ethiopia, are feeling the effects of increasing terrorist activities and U.S. airstrikes. Al-Shabaab's cross-border raids in Kenya and the rising threat of ISIS-Somalia pose significant risks to regional stability. The involvement of global powers like China and Russia complicates the situation further, as U.S. airstrikes must balance regional security concerns with broader diplomatic relations in the Horn of Africa.
The broader geopolitical context complicates the situation. As U.S. operations ramp up, the impact on neighboring countries like Kenya and Ethiopia becomes more pronounced, with potential spillover effects on regional stability and security cooperation.
Humanitarian and Development Concerns
Somalia's humanitarian situation remains dire, with widespread food insecurity, drought, and displacement. While U.S. airstrikes aim to degrade terrorist capabilities, the civilian toll of military operations could exacerbate grievances and fuel recruitment for militant groups. Humanitarian organizations have expressed concern that U.S. strikes undermine broader development efforts. A comprehensive approach must address both security and humanitarian needs to ensure long-term stability.
The ongoing humanitarian crisis in Somalia underscores the complexity of the situation. While military operations are one part of the solution, addressing the root causes of instability requires a more comprehensive approach, including development and governance initiatives to ensure lasting peace and security.
Generational Shift in Counterterrorism Strategy
The 2025 escalation in Somalia marks a shift in U.S. counterterrorism strategy, with a greater emphasis on direct military action rather than training and advisory missions. This change reflects a belief in the efficacy of AFRICOM's expanded operations but also contrasts with lessons from past conflicts like Iraq and Afghanistan, where military force alone proved insufficient to address the underlying causes of terrorism.
This generational shift highlights a broader change in U.S. counterterrorism doctrine. The emphasis on direct military action raises questions about the long-term effectiveness of kinetic pressure without addressing the political and socio-economic factors that drive terrorism.
What 2025's Record Airstrikes Signal
Reaching 100 airstrikes by November 2025 signals a new era for U.S. counterterrorism efforts in Somalia. While these strikes reflect heightened concern about ISIS-Somalia's rapid growth, their long-term effectiveness remains in question. The surge raises crucial questions: Can airstrikes alone achieve lasting peace, or must diplomatic and economic efforts play a larger role? The answer will determine whether 2025's record airstrikes mark a turning point or a temporary escalation in the fight against terrorism.
The 100-airstrike milestone represents a pivotal moment for U.S. military strategy in Somalia. The results of this aggressive stance, and whether it leads to lasting stability or further conflict, will shape the future of counterterrorism in the region for years to come.
