Options and non-options for the Thunder with Andre Roberson out for the season
By
Erik Horne | January 28, 2018
Oklahoma City's Andre Roberson (21) defends against Brooklyn's Spencer Dinwiddie (8) late in the fourth quarter during the NBA basketball game between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Brooklyn Nets at the Chesapeake Energy Arena, Tuesday, Jan. 23, 2018. Photo by Sarah Phipps, The Oklahoman
Andre Roberson’s
season-ending knee injury leaves the Thunder in a difficult position.
The Thunder isn’t expecting to be able to replace Roberson’s All-NBA caliber defense, but it’s limited in its options to add to the roster in what’s sure to be a competitive field at the Feb. 8 trade deadline and on the post-deadline buyout market.
Here’s a look at what OKC can and cannot do:
Make a trade: The Thunder is a consistent trade deadline player whether it’s a transaction on the margins or the acquisition of a major piece. Roberson’s injury, however, may intensify the Thunder’s pursuit of additional wing help.
There is the luxury of having Paul George, who’s having an All-Defensive team season. George can take the assignment of guarding opponents’ best perimeter player, but with Roberson out, Billy Donovan will have to be mindful not to put too much stress on George, who’s 3-point shooting and shot creation is crucial.
So, reinforcements are needed.
The Thunder has no immediate first-round picks to include in a trade. All of its first-rounders are owed to other teams until 2024, depending on where OKC finishes in the standings.
The Thunder does have two trade exceptions acquired in the George trade from last summer. Those exceptions would allow the Thunder to absorb $2.5 million or $1.49 million of an incoming player’s salary. Teams can’t combine exceptions to contribute to one player’s salary.
The Thunder owns second-round picks in 2018 and 2019.
A common misconception about Roberson was that he was “killing” the Thunder’s offense due to teams not guard him tightly on the perimeter. “Killing” is harsh. The Thunder’s starting five scored 110.1 points per 100 possessions and had the ninth-best net rating (14.2) in the league among lineups which have played 100 minutes or more. The foursome of Carmelo Anthony, Steven Adams, Russell Westbrook and George without Roberson scored 110.9 points per 100 possessions, so essentially a difference of one point.
The defensive difference without Roberson, however, is stark:
Starting five’s defensive rating: 95.9
Without Roberson: 114.5
Rookie Terrance Ferguson started seven of the eight games that Roberson missed with left knee tendinitis this season. The Thunder starting five’s offensive rating with Ferguson instead of Roberson was slightly better (110.7). Its defensive rating was significantly worse, 116.4 – 66th in the NBA out of 73 lineups which have played 100 minutes or more together this season.
This is important because it could shape the Thunder’s philosophy when looking at trade targets. It’s why it shouldn’t be a surprise if the Thunder opts for a defensive-minded option in the trade market to supplement Ferguson, Josh Huestis and Alex Abrines on the wing.
Wait for the buyouts: After the trade deadline, teams will start buying out contracts and players will become available as free agents to be signed at the veteran’s minimum (salary based on years of service).
With 14 players under contract, the Thunder has an open roster spot, an advantage in signing a buyout player without having to cut someone already on the roster.
Veteran center Andrew Bogut was waived by the Lakers, and is a player that will be a target for numerous playoff contenders after Feb. 8.
The rest of the buyout field tends to materialize after the trade deadline passes. March 1 is the deadline to sign waived players and have them be eligible for the playoffs.
The Thunder cannot apply for a disabled player exception: The disabled player exception is an exception for teams over the cap which allows them to sign or trade for a player at either the non-taxpayer’s mid-level exception ($8.4 million) or half of the injured player’s annual salary, whichever is lesser.
The catch: Teams can only apply for the exception between July 1 and Jan. 15, per the Collective Bargaining Agreement. Like the Pelicans in regard to DeMarcus Cousins, who suffered a season-ending Achilles injury on Jan. 26, the Thunder cannot apply for the exception because Roberson’s injury occurred after the application deadline.
The reasoning behind Jan. 15 as the cutoff is the player’s injury has to be of a season-ending nature. If such a deadline was extended, teams would potentially be rewarded for losing players to short-term injuries.
