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Mir vs Lesnar Odds
Frank Mir (12-3)
According to sportsbook odds, Frank Mir is the decided underdog in his fight for the Heavyweight Title against Brock Lesnar, but there is a precedent for him to win. For starters, he’s already done it once. Mir is one of the best submission artists in the UFC and any time the fight goes to the ground, he’s looking for a way to make his opponent tap out. UFC betting fans know this well – as does his opponent. In their first fight, Lesnar was dominating until Mir caught him in a leg lock, which ended the fight. Mir doesn’t have the punching power that some of the other gunslingers in the heavyweight division utilize, and he doesn’t have the strongest chin either. It will be to Mir’s benefit if this UFC 100 odds fight in goes to the ground, because that’s where his strengths lie.
Brock Lesnar (3-1)
The former WWE standout has quickly risen to fame in the UFC. He’s only fought four times in the Octagon but UFC betting fans already view him as the premier Heavyweight fighter. For online betting purposes, Lesnar is always entertaining to watch because of the sheer power he possesses. Lesnar has landed some devastating blows that have sent a few careers spiraling downward. Most recently, Lesnar wiped Randy Couture off the map of relevancy with a second-round TKO, and his dominance over Heath Herring was also very impressive. But Lesnar has one blemish on his card: a submission loss to Mir. The good news is that Lesnar has improved significantly since that point, and he’s also more conscious of what Mir will try to accomplish this time around. He’s an absolute beast to handle on the ground and trading shots with him is a futile effort. At 6’3” and 265 pounds, Lesnar is the current big thing in the UFC.
What Will Happen: Lesnar has learned his lesson from his first encounter with Mir: don’t get caught. The UFC 100 odds makers know that Lesnar was dominating the first fight before Mir got him in a leg lock, and this time around, the perception is that Lesnar has improved since his loss to Mir. Lesnar was raw in first fight with Mir, particularly on the ground, which is where he lost. He isn’t at the point where he can – or will – submit Mir on the ground, but he has improved his defenses significantly. When they are standing, Lesnar’s power will be king, and though Mir’s advantage on the mat can be neutralized somewhat, the UFC betting community is expecting that Lesnar will dominate this fight from start to finish.
UFC 100 odds pick: Brock Lesnar
UPDATE - JULY 8, 2009: No major injuries or newsbreaks to report for the heavyweight championship, though there’s certainly bad blood brewing between these two very different fighters. Mir reportedly stated in an interview that he thinks Lesnar’s motivation to fight was money-based. Lesnar fired back by saying Mir was afraid to fight him. This should be a war, and we’re sticking with our pick. The More athletic, powerful Brock Lesnar won’t make the same rookie mistakes in the rematch and should overpower Mir. Bet on Brock Lesnar.
St. Pierre vs Alves Odds
Georges St. Pierre (18-2)
GSP last fought at UFC 94, where he defeated B.J. Penn for the second time when Penn’s corner stopped the fight at the end of the fourth round. GSP has won his last five fights in a variety of ways (two TKOs, two unanimous decisions, one submission), and he is as well-rounded as anyone in the MMA world. GSP’s will to succeed is becoming legendary, as he’s avenged the only two losses of his professional MMA career to Hughes and Matt Serra, both in overwhelming fashion. If GSP wins this fight, he could possibly go on to fight middleweight champion Anderson Silva sometime next year at a catchweight. An interesting fact that could affect this UFC betting odds: GSP is a perfect 9-0 when fighting in Las Vegas, and UFC 100 will be held in Vegas, so sports wagering players should take that into account.
Thiago Alves (16-3)
Nicknamed the “Pitbull,” Alves is coming off an impressive decision against Josh Koscheck at UFC 90. Koscheck stepped in for the injured Diego Sanchez, but no amount of preparation would have helped him against Alves, who dominated the entire fight. Take-down defense was one of Alves’ weaknesses, and Koscheck’s wrestling background was supposed to give him an edge, but Alves didn’t allow Koscheck to get him to the ground and instead turned the fight into a kickboxing battle. Alves’ three losses have come from Derrick Noble, Spencer Fisher and Jon Fitch (who GSP beat at UFC 87), but since his loss to Fitch in June 2006, Alves has won seven consecutive fights - five coming by TKO, along with a pair of submissions. Two of Alves’ three losses have come under the bright lights of Vegas.
What Will Happen: Alves will need all of the takedown defense he can muster, because if GSP gets him on the ground, it’s over. GSP needs to watch for Alves’ aggressiveness, as there are still questions about his chin since he was knocked out by Serra at UFC 69. However, GSP’s strikes are just as lethal as Alves’. UFC odds have GSP as a -260 sportsbook favorite, while Alves is listed at +200, and you have to go with GSP’s well-rounded game as well as his preparation. Alves’ aggressive nature will cause him to make a mistake, and you can bet on GSP to pounce and make him pay.
UFC 100 odds pick: Georges St. Pierre
UPDATE - JULY 8, 2009: Pay attention, bettors; the stakes for this title fight may change significantly before Saturday night. Alves, always a big welterweight, has struggled to cut weight throughout his career at 170 pounds. Through Tuesday, July 7 at 5:00 p.m. ET, he weighed 183 pounds, leaving him 13 more pounds to lose. If he doesn’t make weight, he can still fight St-Pierre but he won’t qualify for a title shot.
Not only would that be devastating to both Alves and MMA betting fans, it could change the fight dynamic. Traditionally, fighters who don’t make weight lose their edge, as they’re dejected. Such was the case at UFC 67, when Travis Lutter failed to make weight for his middleweight title bout against Anderson Silva. The fight became a non-title match and Lutter looked sluggish and disinterested before Silva tapped him out.
The good news: According to Alves, he’s ahead of schedule. He says he’s usually about 188 or 189 pounds five days before a fight, so he should make weight. Everything should go as planned, but betting fans have to keep a close eye on the situation. Our pick for the fight remains Georges St-Pierre. He’s more versatile and will have a set game plan to outsmart the aggressive Alves. Bet on St-Pierre.
Fitch vs Thiago Odds
Jon Fitch (18-3-0-1)
After a disappointing loss to Georges St. Pierre in UFC 87, the 31-year-old Fitch rebounded to manhandle Akihiro Goro in a unanimous decision at UFC 94. The loss to GSP had snapped an eight-match winning streak by the fighter from Indiana, who uses a variety of styles in the octagon. With four knockouts, five submissions and nine decision victories to show that he has the stamina and will to hang around, Fitch is a very good all-around fighter, even if he’s getting beaten like he did against GSP. A stat that would be good for sports wagering players to know before going to their offshore sportsbook: Fitch is 2-1 in three bouts against Brazilian fighters.
Paulo Thiago (11-0)
Thiago has yet to lose a professional MMA fight, as he made his way through ranks in Brazil before earning a spot at UFC 95, where he took on Josh Koscheck. Thiago proceeded to knock out the favored Koscheck 3:29 into the first round with a vicious uppercut followed by a left hook, for which he won “Knockout of the Night” honors. However, Thiago is more known for his prowess on the ground than his knockout power, as six of his 11 wins have come by submission. UFC 100 will be the first time that Thiago will fight on American soil, because UFC 95 took place in London, England, while his previous nine fights were held in his home country of Brazil. A fun fact about Thiago: he is a police officer back in Brazil, so we know he’s not afraid of confrontation in the octagon.
What Will Happen: Fitch should be the UFC betting favorite in this welterweight contest, due to his experience in the UFC, and his past opponents. Fitch was dominated by GSP when they fought, but GSP told him that he should take the experience of that loss and turn it into a positive for his career, and he came out on fire in his match against Goro. Thiago is an unknown in the UFC ranks, but he opened a lot of eyes with his knockout of Koscheck. Fitch’s wrestling background should help him against Thiago on the ground, and you would think that he has the edge in terms of striking, but Thiago proved that he can catch you if you let your guard down. This fight should go the distance, but Fitch’s persistence should pay off.
UFC 100 odds pick: Jon Fitch
Belcher vs Akiyama Odds
Alan Belcher (5-3)
Online betting handicappers know that Alan Belcher has had mixed success career in the UFC. He’s pulled out of a couple of fights with injuries, and then was pummeled by Jason Day at UFC 83, but now he’s on the card for UFC 100 odds in a fight against Yoshira Akiyama. Belcher is fresh off his most impressive win to date - a second-round submission of Dennis Kang - and he’ll face another UFC newcomer in this bout. Sportsbook odds makers know that this is a fight Belcher might be able to handle; he tends to lose to good quality opponents but struggles against the better fighters he’s faced. Belcher is somewhat of a UFC journeyman who has yet to make a name for himself. For UFC 100 betting purposes, his experience might be the difference against another known Asian fighter trying to make a name for himself in the West.
Yoshira Akiyama (12-1, 0-0 in UFC)
The UFC betting lines may not favor Akiyama by the time the fight starts at UFC 100, but he’s got a real shot to win it. Akiyama is ranked as the 10th-best middleweight by MMA Weekly, which is a good sign for the UFC newcomer. He’s been one of the biggest heels in Japanese MMA, so they won’t be that sad to see him go, but the fact that he’s rarely had the crowd’s backing yet has still managed to have so much success might make this fight easier for him. Akiyama has also defeated Dennis Kang, which gives these two fighters on common opponent in their history. Akiyama is now 11-0 since 2005 and has really proven himself in the division. The good news for him is that there isn’t a ton of talent in this division and if he performs like he has in the past, it won’t be long before he’s near the top.
What Will Happen: While Akiyama is a newcomer, he’s a talented one. More importantly, it’s not like he’s fighting the champ. Belcher is a savvy veteran who can take advantage of mistakes, but if Akiyama fights a clean fight, he isn’t likely to lose it. Expect Akiyama’s judo skills to overwhelm Belcher in this UFC betting contest.
UFC 100 odds Pick: Akiyama
Henderson vs Bisping Odds
Dan Henderson (24-7)
One of the most respected and accomplished fighters in UFC betting today, Dan “Hendo” Henderson has seen it all. He’s fought the best of the best – Anderson Silva, Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, Rich Franklin, “Minotauro” Nogueira and Wanderlei Silva, just to name a handful. Henderson’s main game is wrestling; he competed in the NCAA and represented the U.S. in the 1992 and 1996 Olympics. Not a true finisher, he gets most of his wins by getting on top of his opponent and controlling the pace of the fight. However, don’t let the “wrestler” tag fool you when you make your sportsbook pick: Henderson is also renowned for his knockout power in both hands. When he wants to, he can drop an opponent, as he did Wanderlei Silva to win the Pride Middleweight Championship in 2007. Henderson rejoined the UFC in late 2007 and lost title fights in two different weight classes to Jackson and Anderson Silva, but has since bounced back with consecutive victories – the latter a hard-earned decision over tough striker Rich Franklin. Now, after coaching Team USA in The Ultimate Fighter 9, he faces Michael Bisping, a fighter who can at the very least match his tremendous heart and fitness.
Michael Bisping (18-1)
For a guy with just one career loss (a decision against Rashad Evans, and even that was questionable), it sure took a while for Team England Ultimate Fighter coach Michael “the Count” Bisping to get UFC betting fanfare. Early in his MMA days, he showed strong boxing skills and regularly knocked out opponents in his native England. When he transitioned to UFC, his power didn’t fully translate as he struggled to hurt bigger opponents like Rashad Evans and Matt Hamill. Bisping then dropped down to middleweight and hasn’t lost since. He’s displayed better power, great fitness, and surprising versatility. While he’s more of a standup fighter, he’s capable on the ground thanks to his Jiu-Jitsu background.
What Will Happen: It’s safe to say that Henderson has the edge on the ground while Bisping has a slight edge standing up; even though Henderson is a huge sportsbook favorite at -330 to Bisping’s +255, this fight should be close. Both men are well-rounded, and extremely fit, so neither will quit. In the end, Henderson has to get the edge. He’s the more experienced fighter and, even though Bisping is more of a striker, Henderson has one-punch knockout ability. Those betting online should expect a chess match resulting in a hard-fought decision win for Henderson.
UFC 100 odds pick: Dan Henderson
Coleman vs Bonnar Odds
Mark Coleman (15-9)
As the fighters of UFC get younger and younger, online sports bettors know that even 33 or 34 years old is ancient in the UFC. Mark Coleman, who is an underdog to Stephan Bonner on the UFC 100 odds, is 44 years old. Worse yet, Coleman is a very old 44. In his last fight against Mauricio Shogun Rua, Coleman looked slow and pathetic. He was stumbling around, gasping for air and simply didn’t look like he had it anymore. Coleman is one of the all-time greats in the UFC but at this point, UFC 100 betting handicappers should know that this is just a guy who can’t give up the dream. If the fight is quick, he’ll probably be able to compete for a little bit, but as he showed us against Rua, he just doesn’t have the gas left in the tank to go the distance with anyone anymore.
Stephan Bonnar (11-5)
The sportsbook odds makers have Stephan Bonnar favored against Mark Coleman, as the 32-year-old Bonnar will look to bounce back from his loss to Jon Jones. Bonnar is well-known from his bouts with Forrest Griffin in The Ultimate Fighter, arguably some of the best ever. He has one of the toughest chins in the sport and he is extremely difficult to knock out. A steroid suspension kept him from taking the next step, but at this point, Bonnar is going to become significantly bigger than what he is now. Right now, he’s just a good all-around fighter, and even though Mark Coleman might have somewhat of an edge on the ground – if he has the stamina – Bonnar should control this fight everywhere else.
What Will Happen: The UFC 100 betting community knows that Mark Coleman isn’t coming to the end of the road – he’s passed it a few stops ago. Bonnar is not a scrub and he’s definitely not a pushover. Since Coleman won’t be able to end this fight quickly, he probably doesn’t have much of a shot to win it. Stick with what the UFC betting lines are telling you and take the favorite.
UFC 100 odds pick: Bonnar via TKO
Danzig vs Miller Odds
Mac Danzig (19-6-1)
In the UFC betting lightweight division, Mac Danzig is one of the better grapplers. Well-trained in the art of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, he gets most of his wins via submission. His signature move is the rear-naked choke; he used it to beat Tommy Speer and win The Ultimate Fighter 6, then did it again against Mark Bocek at UFC 83. After those two big wins, however, Danzig has been a disappointment to those betting on his UFC lines. Clay Guida outmuscled him en route to a unanimous decision in September 2008 and he then lost a heartbreaker when Josh Neer choked him out in a battle that won Fight of the Night honors in February. Danzig desperately needs a win to prove he belongs in the UFC.
Jim Miller (13-2)
Another Jiu-Jitsu specialist, Miller makes his name the same way Danzig does – using his strong ground grappling skills to set up submissions. Like Danzig, he also often goes for the rear-naked choke, so those who bet on sports should expect an interesting ground battle with lots of transitions. He has a few noteworthy opponents on his record – Frank Edgar and, most recently, Gray Maynard – but he lost both those fights. It seems he struggles against strong wrestlers. Miller’s weakness as a sportsbook pick is that he’s one-dimensional. He has zero knockout power – his one career KO victory was a stoppage on cuts – so he has to finish fights on the ground.
What Will Happen: Danzig is by no means a slugger, but he has the standup advantage over Miller, as he trains with Justine Fortune, the assistant of legendary boxing coach Freddie Roach. His striking isn’t super-powerful but it’s technically sound, so he’d be smart to take away Miller’s ground game. Even though Danzig is as good on the ground as Miller, he’ll capitalize on his advantage and land more shots. He should grind out a win.
UFC 100 odds pick: Mac Danzig
Kim vs Grant Odds
Dong-Hyun Kim (11-0-1-1)
Kim is a 27-year-old fighter with a background in judo, kickboxing and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and he moved to UFC after moving up in the ranks in his home country of Korea, as well as in Japan. In three UFC fights, Kim has a pair of wins and a no-contest. One of his wins was a controversial split decision over Matt Brown, which didn’t go over very well with the crowd or commentator Joe Rogan. Then Kim moved on to Karo Parisyan, but the bout was called a no-contest after Parisyan - the original winner by split decision - tested positive for three different types of banned substances.
T.J. Grant (14-2)
Grant is a 25-year-old native of Cole Harbour, Nova Scotia who specializes in submissions: 12 of his 14 wins have come by submission, and eight of those were due to an armbar. After working his way through the Canadian MMA ranks, Grant made his debut at UFC 97 back in April, and he earned a split decision over Ryo Chonan. Grant impressed many in his win over Chonan, as he didn’t sit back and wait to counter, but he took the fight to his opponent. Grant, who has a background in jiu-jitsu as well as wrestling, will be aiming to shoot out up the welterweight division.
What Will Happen: Kim should be the UFC betting favorite in your offshore sportsbook for this event, due to his experience in the UFC. However, he shouldn’t be that big of a favorite as he’s only fought in the UFC three times (to Grant’s one bout), and they’ve ended in a TKO, a split decision and a no-contest. Kim needs a big win to remain relevant in the welterweight division, and he could try to force the issue. This plays right into the hands of Grant, who isn’t afraid to scrap and he also has the ability to turn an opponent’s mistake against them. Kim has a three-inch height advantage on Grant, but that won’t come into play much in this fight. This is a big tilt for either fighter, and whoever can handle the pressure of the biggest event in UFC history will come away victorious. Go with the underdog in this one.
UFC betting pick: T.J. Grant
Dollaway vs Lawlor Odds
C.B. Dollaway (8-1-0-0)
Dollaway, a 25-year-old Michigan native fighting out of Arizona with a nickname of “Doberman,” entered the UFC via the seventh season of the “Ultimate Fighter.” Dollaway reached the finale of the show, where he lost by an armbar submission to Amir Sadollah - the second time Dollaway had lost to him during the season. He moved on to UFC: Silva vs Irwin, where he defeated Jesse Taylor with a Peruvian necktie, which was the first time in the history of the UFC that move had been used. It earned Dollaway the “Submission of the Night” honors. His last bout came at UFC 92, where he stopped Mike Massenzio with a flurry of punches 3:01 into the first round. Seven of Dollaway’s nine fights have ended in the first round.
Tom Lawlor (5-1-0-1)
Lawlor is another “Ultimate Fighter” alumnus, as he was a member of the eighth season. His UFC debut came in the finale, when he fought Kyle Kingsbury and beat him in a unanimous decision. This was the first time that Lawlor, who is nicknamed the “Filthy Mauler”, had gone past the first round, and he held his own quite well. Lawlor has a wrestling background with one loss in his brief MMA career, when he was disqualified 24 seconds into the first round of a fight with Shane Brimm at WFC 6 – Battle in the Bay due to use of illegal knees.
What Will Happen: Dollaway should be the UFC 100 betting favorite in your offshore sportsbook, as he has a bit more experience than Lawlor and is better-rounded. Both fighters are excellent wrestlers, as Dollaway was an All-American at Arizona State, while Lawlor was a three-time National Collegiate Wrestling Association champion at the University of Central Florida. Dollaway is a better striker, but Lawlor is a tough character who will go until he can’t go anymore. Lawlor has moved down to middleweight, so it’ll be interesting to see if he’s lost any power. This fight should go the distance, but the betting edge has to go to Lawlor, who has better conditioning and no one has even seen Dollaway go three rounds in the UFC octagon.
UFC 100 odds pick: Tom Lawlor
Grice vs Gugerty Odds
Matt Grice (9-2)
Oklahoma native Matt Grice’s fight will take place in front of a raucous crowd in Vegas, but online betting handicappers should realize that this fight might be on the untelevised part of the card. Regardless, the UFC 100 odds should be fairly even in this contest. Grice doesn’t have a too long of a history in the UFC; he took a year off from the sports to go to police academy, albeit with a blessing from the UFC. When he came back, he got a rude awakening from Matt Veach at UFN 17 with a first-round loss in a controversial decision, so expect Grice to feel some pressure to perform. He’s just 1-2 in the UFC and another loss would really put his career in question. With a win, though, Grice can get back on the “up-and-coming” trail.
Shannon Gugerty (11-3)
Shannon Gugerty will be in tight against a fellow hungry fighter, Matt Grice. During Gugerty’s last time out, he was submitted by Spencer Fisher. Like Grice, Gugerty has a weak record in the UFC (1-1) and a lot to prove. Gugerty has been training with a good group of fighters like Dean Lister, Brandon Vera and Jason Lambert, which should have him better prepared for this fight. Gugerty is a good wrestler, and he does like his submissions. If the fight goes to the mat, you can count on him trying his favorite rear naked choke a few times.
What Will Happen: The sportsbook odds makers aren’t too sure what to make of this fight other than it will be close. Both fighters are desperate to make their mark and UFC 100 betting handicappers know that it will really be about who wants it more. Flip a coin in this one and then make your UFC betting pick.
UFC 100 odds pick: Gugerty
Jones vs O'Brien Odds
Jon “Bones” Jones (8-0)
The UFC 100 odds have Jon “Bones” Jones as a huge favorite in his fight against Jake O’Brien and it’s easy to see why. Jones is one of the hottest up-and-comers in the sport, and a lot of UFC betting experts feel that he has title potential. With his unorthodox strikes and uncanny takedown moves, online betting handicappers know that Jones is capable of ending a fight in a number of ways. He’s only fought in the UFC a couple of times and both were unanimous decision victories. UFC 100 betting sharps know that another win is likely at the upcoming event, especially the way he’s defeated Andre Gusmano and Stephan Bonnar in his last two fights. He’s just 21 years old but he’s already one of the most explosive fighters in the MMA division.
Jake O’Brien (11-2)
The sportsbook odds have O’Brien listed as a very big underdog and there are a number of reason for it. O’Brien has had mixed results in the UFC, losing to Cain Velasquez and Andrei Arlovski, but defeating Heath Herring and Christian Wellisch. There will also be a big x-factor in this fight: O’Brien’s loss of weight. He’s dropped down to light heavyweight, which sometimes isn’t a smooth transition. And O’Brien was one of the bigger heavyweights as well, so UFC 100 betting handicappers will be curious to see how he fights at a smaller weight. O’Brien is a decent wrestler and isn’t a huge threat standing. As the UFC lines indicate, he will have his hands full with Jones.
What Will Happen: Jones won’t have too many problems with O’Brien. While O’Brien’s best way to win this fight is on the mat, that’s bread and butter for Jones. On his feet, Jones has the edge as well. It would be a surprise if “Bones” didn’t move to 9-0.
UFC 100 odds pick: Jones
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Mir vs Lesnar Odds
Frank Mir (12-3)
According to sportsbook odds, Frank Mir is the decided underdog in his fight for the Heavyweight Title against Brock Lesnar, but there is a precedent for him to win. For starters, he’s already done it once. Mir is one of the best submission artists in the UFC and any time the fight goes to the ground, he’s looking for a way to make his opponent tap out. UFC betting fans know this well – as does his opponent. In their first fight, Lesnar was dominating until Mir caught him in a leg lock, which ended the fight. Mir doesn’t have the punching power that some of the other gunslingers in the heavyweight division utilize, and he doesn’t have the strongest chin either. It will be to Mir’s benefit if this UFC 100 odds fight in goes to the ground, because that’s where his strengths lie.
Brock Lesnar (3-1)
The former WWE standout has quickly risen to fame in the UFC. He’s only fought four times in the Octagon but UFC betting fans already view him as the premier Heavyweight fighter. For online betting purposes, Lesnar is always entertaining to watch because of the sheer power he possesses. Lesnar has landed some devastating blows that have sent a few careers spiraling downward. Most recently, Lesnar wiped Randy Couture off the map of relevancy with a second-round TKO, and his dominance over Heath Herring was also very impressive. But Lesnar has one blemish on his card: a submission loss to Mir. The good news is that Lesnar has improved significantly since that point, and he’s also more conscious of what Mir will try to accomplish this time around. He’s an absolute beast to handle on the ground and trading shots with him is a futile effort. At 6’3” and 265 pounds, Lesnar is the current big thing in the UFC.
What Will Happen: Lesnar has learned his lesson from his first encounter with Mir: don’t get caught. The UFC 100 odds makers know that Lesnar was dominating the first fight before Mir got him in a leg lock, and this time around, the perception is that Lesnar has improved since his loss to Mir. Lesnar was raw in first fight with Mir, particularly on the ground, which is where he lost. He isn’t at the point where he can – or will – submit Mir on the ground, but he has improved his defenses significantly. When they are standing, Lesnar’s power will be king, and though Mir’s advantage on the mat can be neutralized somewhat, the UFC betting community is expecting that Lesnar will dominate this fight from start to finish.
UFC 100 odds pick: Brock Lesnar
UPDATE - JULY 8, 2009: No major injuries or newsbreaks to report for the heavyweight championship, though there’s certainly bad blood brewing between these two very different fighters. Mir reportedly stated in an interview that he thinks Lesnar’s motivation to fight was money-based. Lesnar fired back by saying Mir was afraid to fight him. This should be a war, and we’re sticking with our pick. The More athletic, powerful Brock Lesnar won’t make the same rookie mistakes in the rematch and should overpower Mir. Bet on Brock Lesnar.
St. Pierre vs Alves Odds
Georges St. Pierre (18-2)
GSP last fought at UFC 94, where he defeated B.J. Penn for the second time when Penn’s corner stopped the fight at the end of the fourth round. GSP has won his last five fights in a variety of ways (two TKOs, two unanimous decisions, one submission), and he is as well-rounded as anyone in the MMA world. GSP’s will to succeed is becoming legendary, as he’s avenged the only two losses of his professional MMA career to Hughes and Matt Serra, both in overwhelming fashion. If GSP wins this fight, he could possibly go on to fight middleweight champion Anderson Silva sometime next year at a catchweight. An interesting fact that could affect this UFC betting odds: GSP is a perfect 9-0 when fighting in Las Vegas, and UFC 100 will be held in Vegas, so sports wagering players should take that into account.
Thiago Alves (16-3)
Nicknamed the “Pitbull,” Alves is coming off an impressive decision against Josh Koscheck at UFC 90. Koscheck stepped in for the injured Diego Sanchez, but no amount of preparation would have helped him against Alves, who dominated the entire fight. Take-down defense was one of Alves’ weaknesses, and Koscheck’s wrestling background was supposed to give him an edge, but Alves didn’t allow Koscheck to get him to the ground and instead turned the fight into a kickboxing battle. Alves’ three losses have come from Derrick Noble, Spencer Fisher and Jon Fitch (who GSP beat at UFC 87), but since his loss to Fitch in June 2006, Alves has won seven consecutive fights - five coming by TKO, along with a pair of submissions. Two of Alves’ three losses have come under the bright lights of Vegas.
What Will Happen: Alves will need all of the takedown defense he can muster, because if GSP gets him on the ground, it’s over. GSP needs to watch for Alves’ aggressiveness, as there are still questions about his chin since he was knocked out by Serra at UFC 69. However, GSP’s strikes are just as lethal as Alves’. UFC odds have GSP as a -260 sportsbook favorite, while Alves is listed at +200, and you have to go with GSP’s well-rounded game as well as his preparation. Alves’ aggressive nature will cause him to make a mistake, and you can bet on GSP to pounce and make him pay.
UFC 100 odds pick: Georges St. Pierre
UPDATE - JULY 8, 2009: Pay attention, bettors; the stakes for this title fight may change significantly before Saturday night. Alves, always a big welterweight, has struggled to cut weight throughout his career at 170 pounds. Through Tuesday, July 7 at 5:00 p.m. ET, he weighed 183 pounds, leaving him 13 more pounds to lose. If he doesn’t make weight, he can still fight St-Pierre but he won’t qualify for a title shot.
Not only would that be devastating to both Alves and MMA betting fans, it could change the fight dynamic. Traditionally, fighters who don’t make weight lose their edge, as they’re dejected. Such was the case at UFC 67, when Travis Lutter failed to make weight for his middleweight title bout against Anderson Silva. The fight became a non-title match and Lutter looked sluggish and disinterested before Silva tapped him out.
The good news: According to Alves, he’s ahead of schedule. He says he’s usually about 188 or 189 pounds five days before a fight, so he should make weight. Everything should go as planned, but betting fans have to keep a close eye on the situation. Our pick for the fight remains Georges St-Pierre. He’s more versatile and will have a set game plan to outsmart the aggressive Alves. Bet on St-Pierre.
Fitch vs Thiago Odds
Jon Fitch (18-3-0-1)
After a disappointing loss to Georges St. Pierre in UFC 87, the 31-year-old Fitch rebounded to manhandle Akihiro Goro in a unanimous decision at UFC 94. The loss to GSP had snapped an eight-match winning streak by the fighter from Indiana, who uses a variety of styles in the octagon. With four knockouts, five submissions and nine decision victories to show that he has the stamina and will to hang around, Fitch is a very good all-around fighter, even if he’s getting beaten like he did against GSP. A stat that would be good for sports wagering players to know before going to their offshore sportsbook: Fitch is 2-1 in three bouts against Brazilian fighters.
Paulo Thiago (11-0)
Thiago has yet to lose a professional MMA fight, as he made his way through ranks in Brazil before earning a spot at UFC 95, where he took on Josh Koscheck. Thiago proceeded to knock out the favored Koscheck 3:29 into the first round with a vicious uppercut followed by a left hook, for which he won “Knockout of the Night” honors. However, Thiago is more known for his prowess on the ground than his knockout power, as six of his 11 wins have come by submission. UFC 100 will be the first time that Thiago will fight on American soil, because UFC 95 took place in London, England, while his previous nine fights were held in his home country of Brazil. A fun fact about Thiago: he is a police officer back in Brazil, so we know he’s not afraid of confrontation in the octagon.
What Will Happen: Fitch should be the UFC betting favorite in this welterweight contest, due to his experience in the UFC, and his past opponents. Fitch was dominated by GSP when they fought, but GSP told him that he should take the experience of that loss and turn it into a positive for his career, and he came out on fire in his match against Goro. Thiago is an unknown in the UFC ranks, but he opened a lot of eyes with his knockout of Koscheck. Fitch’s wrestling background should help him against Thiago on the ground, and you would think that he has the edge in terms of striking, but Thiago proved that he can catch you if you let your guard down. This fight should go the distance, but Fitch’s persistence should pay off.
UFC 100 odds pick: Jon Fitch
Belcher vs Akiyama Odds
Alan Belcher (5-3)
Online betting handicappers know that Alan Belcher has had mixed success career in the UFC. He’s pulled out of a couple of fights with injuries, and then was pummeled by Jason Day at UFC 83, but now he’s on the card for UFC 100 odds in a fight against Yoshira Akiyama. Belcher is fresh off his most impressive win to date - a second-round submission of Dennis Kang - and he’ll face another UFC newcomer in this bout. Sportsbook odds makers know that this is a fight Belcher might be able to handle; he tends to lose to good quality opponents but struggles against the better fighters he’s faced. Belcher is somewhat of a UFC journeyman who has yet to make a name for himself. For UFC 100 betting purposes, his experience might be the difference against another known Asian fighter trying to make a name for himself in the West.
Yoshira Akiyama (12-1, 0-0 in UFC)
The UFC betting lines may not favor Akiyama by the time the fight starts at UFC 100, but he’s got a real shot to win it. Akiyama is ranked as the 10th-best middleweight by MMA Weekly, which is a good sign for the UFC newcomer. He’s been one of the biggest heels in Japanese MMA, so they won’t be that sad to see him go, but the fact that he’s rarely had the crowd’s backing yet has still managed to have so much success might make this fight easier for him. Akiyama has also defeated Dennis Kang, which gives these two fighters on common opponent in their history. Akiyama is now 11-0 since 2005 and has really proven himself in the division. The good news for him is that there isn’t a ton of talent in this division and if he performs like he has in the past, it won’t be long before he’s near the top.
What Will Happen: While Akiyama is a newcomer, he’s a talented one. More importantly, it’s not like he’s fighting the champ. Belcher is a savvy veteran who can take advantage of mistakes, but if Akiyama fights a clean fight, he isn’t likely to lose it. Expect Akiyama’s judo skills to overwhelm Belcher in this UFC betting contest.
UFC 100 odds Pick: Akiyama
Henderson vs Bisping Odds
Dan Henderson (24-7)
One of the most respected and accomplished fighters in UFC betting today, Dan “Hendo” Henderson has seen it all. He’s fought the best of the best – Anderson Silva, Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, Rich Franklin, “Minotauro” Nogueira and Wanderlei Silva, just to name a handful. Henderson’s main game is wrestling; he competed in the NCAA and represented the U.S. in the 1992 and 1996 Olympics. Not a true finisher, he gets most of his wins by getting on top of his opponent and controlling the pace of the fight. However, don’t let the “wrestler” tag fool you when you make your sportsbook pick: Henderson is also renowned for his knockout power in both hands. When he wants to, he can drop an opponent, as he did Wanderlei Silva to win the Pride Middleweight Championship in 2007. Henderson rejoined the UFC in late 2007 and lost title fights in two different weight classes to Jackson and Anderson Silva, but has since bounced back with consecutive victories – the latter a hard-earned decision over tough striker Rich Franklin. Now, after coaching Team USA in The Ultimate Fighter 9, he faces Michael Bisping, a fighter who can at the very least match his tremendous heart and fitness.
Michael Bisping (18-1)
For a guy with just one career loss (a decision against Rashad Evans, and even that was questionable), it sure took a while for Team England Ultimate Fighter coach Michael “the Count” Bisping to get UFC betting fanfare. Early in his MMA days, he showed strong boxing skills and regularly knocked out opponents in his native England. When he transitioned to UFC, his power didn’t fully translate as he struggled to hurt bigger opponents like Rashad Evans and Matt Hamill. Bisping then dropped down to middleweight and hasn’t lost since. He’s displayed better power, great fitness, and surprising versatility. While he’s more of a standup fighter, he’s capable on the ground thanks to his Jiu-Jitsu background.
What Will Happen: It’s safe to say that Henderson has the edge on the ground while Bisping has a slight edge standing up; even though Henderson is a huge sportsbook favorite at -330 to Bisping’s +255, this fight should be close. Both men are well-rounded, and extremely fit, so neither will quit. In the end, Henderson has to get the edge. He’s the more experienced fighter and, even though Bisping is more of a striker, Henderson has one-punch knockout ability. Those betting online should expect a chess match resulting in a hard-fought decision win for Henderson.
UFC 100 odds pick: Dan Henderson
Coleman vs Bonnar Odds
Mark Coleman (15-9)
As the fighters of UFC get younger and younger, online sports bettors know that even 33 or 34 years old is ancient in the UFC. Mark Coleman, who is an underdog to Stephan Bonner on the UFC 100 odds, is 44 years old. Worse yet, Coleman is a very old 44. In his last fight against Mauricio Shogun Rua, Coleman looked slow and pathetic. He was stumbling around, gasping for air and simply didn’t look like he had it anymore. Coleman is one of the all-time greats in the UFC but at this point, UFC 100 betting handicappers should know that this is just a guy who can’t give up the dream. If the fight is quick, he’ll probably be able to compete for a little bit, but as he showed us against Rua, he just doesn’t have the gas left in the tank to go the distance with anyone anymore.
Stephan Bonnar (11-5)
The sportsbook odds makers have Stephan Bonnar favored against Mark Coleman, as the 32-year-old Bonnar will look to bounce back from his loss to Jon Jones. Bonnar is well-known from his bouts with Forrest Griffin in The Ultimate Fighter, arguably some of the best ever. He has one of the toughest chins in the sport and he is extremely difficult to knock out. A steroid suspension kept him from taking the next step, but at this point, Bonnar is going to become significantly bigger than what he is now. Right now, he’s just a good all-around fighter, and even though Mark Coleman might have somewhat of an edge on the ground – if he has the stamina – Bonnar should control this fight everywhere else.
What Will Happen: The UFC 100 betting community knows that Mark Coleman isn’t coming to the end of the road – he’s passed it a few stops ago. Bonnar is not a scrub and he’s definitely not a pushover. Since Coleman won’t be able to end this fight quickly, he probably doesn’t have much of a shot to win it. Stick with what the UFC betting lines are telling you and take the favorite.
UFC 100 odds pick: Bonnar via TKO
Danzig vs Miller Odds
Mac Danzig (19-6-1)
In the UFC betting lightweight division, Mac Danzig is one of the better grapplers. Well-trained in the art of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, he gets most of his wins via submission. His signature move is the rear-naked choke; he used it to beat Tommy Speer and win The Ultimate Fighter 6, then did it again against Mark Bocek at UFC 83. After those two big wins, however, Danzig has been a disappointment to those betting on his UFC lines. Clay Guida outmuscled him en route to a unanimous decision in September 2008 and he then lost a heartbreaker when Josh Neer choked him out in a battle that won Fight of the Night honors in February. Danzig desperately needs a win to prove he belongs in the UFC.
Jim Miller (13-2)
Another Jiu-Jitsu specialist, Miller makes his name the same way Danzig does – using his strong ground grappling skills to set up submissions. Like Danzig, he also often goes for the rear-naked choke, so those who bet on sports should expect an interesting ground battle with lots of transitions. He has a few noteworthy opponents on his record – Frank Edgar and, most recently, Gray Maynard – but he lost both those fights. It seems he struggles against strong wrestlers. Miller’s weakness as a sportsbook pick is that he’s one-dimensional. He has zero knockout power – his one career KO victory was a stoppage on cuts – so he has to finish fights on the ground.
What Will Happen: Danzig is by no means a slugger, but he has the standup advantage over Miller, as he trains with Justine Fortune, the assistant of legendary boxing coach Freddie Roach. His striking isn’t super-powerful but it’s technically sound, so he’d be smart to take away Miller’s ground game. Even though Danzig is as good on the ground as Miller, he’ll capitalize on his advantage and land more shots. He should grind out a win.
UFC 100 odds pick: Mac Danzig
Kim vs Grant Odds
Dong-Hyun Kim (11-0-1-1)
Kim is a 27-year-old fighter with a background in judo, kickboxing and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and he moved to UFC after moving up in the ranks in his home country of Korea, as well as in Japan. In three UFC fights, Kim has a pair of wins and a no-contest. One of his wins was a controversial split decision over Matt Brown, which didn’t go over very well with the crowd or commentator Joe Rogan. Then Kim moved on to Karo Parisyan, but the bout was called a no-contest after Parisyan - the original winner by split decision - tested positive for three different types of banned substances.
T.J. Grant (14-2)
Grant is a 25-year-old native of Cole Harbour, Nova Scotia who specializes in submissions: 12 of his 14 wins have come by submission, and eight of those were due to an armbar. After working his way through the Canadian MMA ranks, Grant made his debut at UFC 97 back in April, and he earned a split decision over Ryo Chonan. Grant impressed many in his win over Chonan, as he didn’t sit back and wait to counter, but he took the fight to his opponent. Grant, who has a background in jiu-jitsu as well as wrestling, will be aiming to shoot out up the welterweight division.
What Will Happen: Kim should be the UFC betting favorite in your offshore sportsbook for this event, due to his experience in the UFC. However, he shouldn’t be that big of a favorite as he’s only fought in the UFC three times (to Grant’s one bout), and they’ve ended in a TKO, a split decision and a no-contest. Kim needs a big win to remain relevant in the welterweight division, and he could try to force the issue. This plays right into the hands of Grant, who isn’t afraid to scrap and he also has the ability to turn an opponent’s mistake against them. Kim has a three-inch height advantage on Grant, but that won’t come into play much in this fight. This is a big tilt for either fighter, and whoever can handle the pressure of the biggest event in UFC history will come away victorious. Go with the underdog in this one.
UFC betting pick: T.J. Grant
Dollaway vs Lawlor Odds
C.B. Dollaway (8-1-0-0)
Dollaway, a 25-year-old Michigan native fighting out of Arizona with a nickname of “Doberman,” entered the UFC via the seventh season of the “Ultimate Fighter.” Dollaway reached the finale of the show, where he lost by an armbar submission to Amir Sadollah - the second time Dollaway had lost to him during the season. He moved on to UFC: Silva vs Irwin, where he defeated Jesse Taylor with a Peruvian necktie, which was the first time in the history of the UFC that move had been used. It earned Dollaway the “Submission of the Night” honors. His last bout came at UFC 92, where he stopped Mike Massenzio with a flurry of punches 3:01 into the first round. Seven of Dollaway’s nine fights have ended in the first round.
Tom Lawlor (5-1-0-1)
Lawlor is another “Ultimate Fighter” alumnus, as he was a member of the eighth season. His UFC debut came in the finale, when he fought Kyle Kingsbury and beat him in a unanimous decision. This was the first time that Lawlor, who is nicknamed the “Filthy Mauler”, had gone past the first round, and he held his own quite well. Lawlor has a wrestling background with one loss in his brief MMA career, when he was disqualified 24 seconds into the first round of a fight with Shane Brimm at WFC 6 – Battle in the Bay due to use of illegal knees.
What Will Happen: Dollaway should be the UFC 100 betting favorite in your offshore sportsbook, as he has a bit more experience than Lawlor and is better-rounded. Both fighters are excellent wrestlers, as Dollaway was an All-American at Arizona State, while Lawlor was a three-time National Collegiate Wrestling Association champion at the University of Central Florida. Dollaway is a better striker, but Lawlor is a tough character who will go until he can’t go anymore. Lawlor has moved down to middleweight, so it’ll be interesting to see if he’s lost any power. This fight should go the distance, but the betting edge has to go to Lawlor, who has better conditioning and no one has even seen Dollaway go three rounds in the UFC octagon.
UFC 100 odds pick: Tom Lawlor
Grice vs Gugerty Odds
Matt Grice (9-2)
Oklahoma native Matt Grice’s fight will take place in front of a raucous crowd in Vegas, but online betting handicappers should realize that this fight might be on the untelevised part of the card. Regardless, the UFC 100 odds should be fairly even in this contest. Grice doesn’t have a too long of a history in the UFC; he took a year off from the sports to go to police academy, albeit with a blessing from the UFC. When he came back, he got a rude awakening from Matt Veach at UFN 17 with a first-round loss in a controversial decision, so expect Grice to feel some pressure to perform. He’s just 1-2 in the UFC and another loss would really put his career in question. With a win, though, Grice can get back on the “up-and-coming” trail.
Shannon Gugerty (11-3)
Shannon Gugerty will be in tight against a fellow hungry fighter, Matt Grice. During Gugerty’s last time out, he was submitted by Spencer Fisher. Like Grice, Gugerty has a weak record in the UFC (1-1) and a lot to prove. Gugerty has been training with a good group of fighters like Dean Lister, Brandon Vera and Jason Lambert, which should have him better prepared for this fight. Gugerty is a good wrestler, and he does like his submissions. If the fight goes to the mat, you can count on him trying his favorite rear naked choke a few times.
What Will Happen: The sportsbook odds makers aren’t too sure what to make of this fight other than it will be close. Both fighters are desperate to make their mark and UFC 100 betting handicappers know that it will really be about who wants it more. Flip a coin in this one and then make your UFC betting pick.
UFC 100 odds pick: Gugerty
Jones vs O'Brien Odds
Jon “Bones” Jones (8-0)
The UFC 100 odds have Jon “Bones” Jones as a huge favorite in his fight against Jake O’Brien and it’s easy to see why. Jones is one of the hottest up-and-comers in the sport, and a lot of UFC betting experts feel that he has title potential. With his unorthodox strikes and uncanny takedown moves, online betting handicappers know that Jones is capable of ending a fight in a number of ways. He’s only fought in the UFC a couple of times and both were unanimous decision victories. UFC 100 betting sharps know that another win is likely at the upcoming event, especially the way he’s defeated Andre Gusmano and Stephan Bonnar in his last two fights. He’s just 21 years old but he’s already one of the most explosive fighters in the MMA division.
Jake O’Brien (11-2)
The sportsbook odds have O’Brien listed as a very big underdog and there are a number of reason for it. O’Brien has had mixed results in the UFC, losing to Cain Velasquez and Andrei Arlovski, but defeating Heath Herring and Christian Wellisch. There will also be a big x-factor in this fight: O’Brien’s loss of weight. He’s dropped down to light heavyweight, which sometimes isn’t a smooth transition. And O’Brien was one of the bigger heavyweights as well, so UFC 100 betting handicappers will be curious to see how he fights at a smaller weight. O’Brien is a decent wrestler and isn’t a huge threat standing. As the UFC lines indicate, he will have his hands full with Jones.
What Will Happen: Jones won’t have too many problems with O’Brien. While O’Brien’s best way to win this fight is on the mat, that’s bread and butter for Jones. On his feet, Jones has the edge as well. It would be a surprise if “Bones” didn’t move to 9-0.
UFC 100 odds pick: Jones
