The Clintons can't like this poll

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Obama, Clinton in Dead Heat in Latest New Hampshire Dem Poll

Sunday , December 24, 2006

CONCORD, N.H. — Two weeks after Sen. Barack Obama's first trip to New Hampshire, a new poll shows him about even with Sen. Hillary Clinton among likely voters in the state's 2008 Democratic presidential primary.

Among participants in the Concord Monitor poll, 22 percent said they would vote for Clinton if the primary was held now, and 21 percent said Obama. That put them slightly ahead of former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who was at 16 percent.

Last month, a Monitor poll showed Clinton leading Obama by 23 percentage points.

"I'm not surprised because Barack Obama got five days of constant media attention in New Hampshire," said Jim Demers, a Democratic activist who accompanied Obama throughout his visit. "Obama has demonstrated to the people of New Hampshire that he's a top tier candidate."

On the Republican side, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Sen. John McCain are about even, with Giuliani at 26 percent and McCain at 25 percent. Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is next with 10 percent.

The telephone poll of 600 likely voters was conducted Monday through Wednesday by Maryland-based Research 2000 and had a sampling margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The likely voters for the Democratic and Republican primary totaled 400 respondents each. For those questions, the margin of error was plus or minus 5 percentage points.

In hypothetical general election matchups, Giuliani has a slight lead over Clinton, while Clinton and McCain are about even. Obama is slightly ahead of both Giuliani and McCain. Edwards is tied with McCain and about even with Giuliani.

"There are a lot of independents. These are the same people who loathe Bush, loathe the Iraq war," said Del Ali, president of Research 2000. "But deep down, they don't like Hillary Clinton."

The numbers don't mean much roughly a year before the primary, some experts cautioned. President Bush, for example, held a double-digit lead over McCain in a New Hampshire poll nine months before the 2000 primary.

"You will have this tremendous amount of energy and motion to secure the allegiance of about 5,000 people," said Charlie Arlinghaus, president of the Josiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy. "And nobody else is going to start paying attention until after the summer."


-VG
 
Blacks Shift To Obama, Poll Finds

By Dan Balz and Jon Cohen
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, February 28, 2007; A01



The opening stages of the campaign for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination have produced a noticeable shift in sentiment among African American voters, who little more than a month ago heavily supported Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton but now favor the candidacy of Sen. Barack Obama.

Clinton, of New York, continues to lead Obama and other rivals in the Democratic contest, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll. But her once-sizable margin over the freshman senator from Illinois was sliced in half during the past month largely because of Obama's growing support among black voters.

In the Republican race, former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, who recently made clear his intentions to seek the presidency, has expanded his lead over Sen. John McCain of Arizona. Giuliani holds a 2 to 1 advantage over McCain among Republicans, according to the poll, more than tripling his margin of a month ago.

The principal reason was a shift among white evangelical Protestants, who now clearly favor Giuliani over McCain. Giuliani among this group of Americans despite his support of abortion rights and gay rights, two issues of great importance to religious conservatives. McCain opposes abortion rights.

Among Democrats, Clinton still enjoys many of the advantages of a traditional front-runner. Pitted against Obama and former senator John Edwards of North Carolina, she was seen by Democrats as the candidate with the best experience to be president, as the strongest leader, as having the best chance to get elected, as the closest to voters on the issues and as the candidate who best understands the problems "of people like you." Obama was seen as the most inspirational.

The Post-ABC News poll was completed days after aides to the two leading Democrats engaged in a testy exchange over comments critical of Clinton and her husband, former president Bill Clinton, by Hollywood mogul David Geffen, a former friend and financial backer of the Clintons who hosted a fundraiser for Obama last week in Los Angeles.

Early national polls are not always good predictors for presidential campaigns, but the Post-ABC poll offers clues to the competition ahead.

On the January weekend when she announced her candidacy, Clinton led the Democratic field with 41 percent. Obama was second at 17 percent, Edwards was third at 11 percent and former vice president Al Gore, who has said he has no plans to run, was fourth at 10 percent.

The latest poll put Clinton at 36 percent, Obama at 24 percent, Gore at 14 percent and Edwards at 12 percent. None of the other Democrats running received more than 3 percent. With Gore removed from the field, Clinton would gain ground on Obama, leading the Illinois senator 43 percent to 27 percent. Edwards ran third at 14 percent. The poll was completed the night Gore's film "An Inconvenient Truth" won an Oscar.

Clinton's and Obama's support among white voters changed little since December, but the changes among black Democrats were dramatic. In December and January Post-ABC News polls, Clinton led Obama among African Americans by 60 percent to 20 percent. In the new poll, Obama held a narrow advantage among blacks, 44 percent to 33 percent. The shift came despite four in five blacks having a favorable impression of the New York senator.

African Americans view Clinton even more positively than they see Obama, but in the time since he launched his campaign, his favorability rating rose significantly among blacks. In the latest poll, 70 percent of African Americans said they had a favorable impression of Obama, compared with 54 percent in December and January.

Overall, Clinton's favorable ratings dipped slightly from January, with 49 percent of Americans having a favorable impression and 48 percent an unfavorable impression. Obama's ratings among all Americans improved over the past month, with 53 percent saying they have a favorable impression and 30 percent saying they have an unfavorable impression.

Her position on the war in Iraq does not appear to be hurting Clinton among Democrats, even though she has faced hostile questioning from some voters about her 2002 vote authorizing President Bush to go to war. Some Democrats have demanded that she apologize for the vote, which she has declined to do.

The Post-ABC News poll found that 52 percent of Democrats said her vote was the right thing to do at the time, while 47 percent said it was a mistake. Of those who called it a mistake, however, just 31 percent said she should apologize. Among Democrats who called the war the most important issue in deciding their 2008 candidate preference, Clinton led Obama 40 to 26 percent.

In the Republican contest, McCain once was seen as the early, if fragile front-runner, for his party's nomination, but Giuliani's surge adds a new dimension to the race. In the latest poll, the former New York mayor led among Republicans with 44 percent to McCain's 21 percent. Last month, Giuliani led with 34 percent to McCain's 27 percent.

Former House speaker Newt Gingrich ran third in the latest poll with 15 percent, while former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney was fourth with 4 percent. Gingrich has not said he definitely plans to run, and without him, Giuliani's lead would increase even more, to 53 percent compared with McCain's 23 percent.

When Republicans were asked to rate Giuliani, McCain and Romney on a series of attributes, Giuliani was seen as the strongest leader, the most inspiring, the candidate with the best chance of winning the general election, the most honest and trustworthy and the one closest to them on the issues. McCain was seen as having the best experience to be president, but only by a narrow margin.

Giuliani faces potential problems because of his views on abortion and gay rights. More than four in 10 Republicans said they were less likely to support him because of those views. More than two in 10 Republicans said there was "no chance" they could vote for him.

With Clinton and Obama as possible barrier-breakers in this presidential campaign, Americans were asked how a candidate's race or gender would affect their vote. What the poll showed is that Americans indicated they were less likely to support a candidate over age 72 or a candidate who is a Mormon than a female or African American candidate.

Those findings could affect McCain, who is 70, and Romney, who is a Mormon. Nearly six in 10 said they would be less likely to vote for someone over age 72, while three in 10 said they would be less likely to support a Mormon.

The Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone Feb. 22-25 among a random sample of 1,082 adults, including an oversample of 86 black respondents. The margin of sampling error for the poll was plus or minus 3 percentage points; it is higher for the sub-samples.

Polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.
link to story

-VG
 
Obama Pulls Even with Clinton

<font size="5"><center>Obama Pulls Even with Clinton in White House Race</font size></center>


obama_clinton_GI343.jpg


Last Update: Apr 24, 2007 4:12 AM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - On the heels of a burst of successful fund-raising, Democratic 2008 presidential hopeful Sen. Barack Obama has pulled even with frontrunner Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, a new poll released on Monday found.

Obama, a first-term senator from Illinois, has steadily gained on Clinton, a veteran on the national political scene, over the last month and each now polled 32 percent among likely Democratic voters, the survey by Rasmussen Reports found. Former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina was third in the poll with 17 percent.

In late March, New York's Clinton held a 12-point lead over Illinois' Obama in the Rasmussen poll.

The survey was the latest sign the former first lady, who now represents New York in the Senate, will have a tough fight ahead to win the Democratic nomination. Obama, who has served two years in the U.S. Senate, earlier this month revealed he raised $25.8 million in the first quarter of 2007, nearly matching the $26 million she raised.

In Chicago on Monday, Obama outlined a foreign policy agenda he said would double U.S. foreign aid to improve living conditions around the world and reduce the appeal of terrorism.

Obama also said the 2008 election will give the United States a chance to change the world's view of America.

"Many around the world are disappointed with our actions. And many in our own country have come to doubt either our wisdom or our capacity to shape events beyond our borders. Some have even suggested that America's time has passed," he said.

The other candidates in the crowded Democratic field trailed by double digits in the Rasmussen survey, with New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson in fourth place polling only 3 percent.

The survey of 579 likely Democratic primary voters had a margin of error plus or minus 4 percentage points. It was conducted April 16-19.

http://www.fox6.com/news/national/story.aspx?content_id=f9862244-e093-4156-a7b8-63cf2dcdbe58
 
Re: Obama Pulls Even with Clinton

<font size="5"><center>Obama Dents Clinton Candidacy</font size></center>


The Guardian
Monday July 2, 2007 10:46 PM
By JIM KUHNHENN
Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) - For months, Hillary Rodham Clinton has been running her presidential campaign as a front-runner, establishing an image of steady inevitability.

Barack Obama unsteadied her.

By raising a dazzling $32.5 million and outpacing Clinton by $10 million in primary election money, Obama succeeded in making his chief rival look mortal.

Clinton still leads in national polls and is strong in early primary states like New Hampshire and Florida. Obama now leads in fundraising and number of donors - an impressive 258,000 during the first six months of the year.

Neither ensures success in the voting booth.

But both Democrats now occupy a rarified place in the presidential field. Their campaigns can compete with overwhelming force against bantam candidates, such as John Edwards or Bill Richardson, who must run more targeted, all-eggs-in-one-basket campaigns.

Obama and Clinton now stand where George W. Bush stood in 2000. Bush was a well-financed candidate able to sustain a blow from Sen. John McCain in New Hampshire and outspend McCain to victory in subsequent primaries.

Edwards, Richardson and others with fewer resources can find solace in John Kerry, whose campaign was all but dead in 2003 before he borrowed $6 million against his Boston house and put all his effort into winning Iowa. The momentum out of Iowa helped Kerry overcome a 21 percentage point deficit in New Hampshire where his win translated into national momentum.

``Some of these candidates are in positions where Iowa is must win - Edwards is in that situation,'' said Mark Mellman, who was Kerry's pollster in 2004. ``Hillary and to some extent Obama can say they can afford to lose along the way and still have popularity and resources to live to fight another day.''

Ultimately, the attention to fundraising shifts to spending. And that calculation is complicated by the accelerated pace of the nominating contests this presidential cycle. As the nominating calendar stands now, between Jan. 14 and Feb. 2, Democrats will compete in the Iowa and Nevada caucuses and the New Hampshire, Florida and South Carolina primaries.

Then the candidates will confront a Feb. 5 election tsunami where potentially more than 20 states, including New York and California, will hold caucuses or primaries.

In a memorandum to supporters on Sunday, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe signaled that the campaign was already looking beyond just the first round of contests.

``We are on a financial course that will allow us to both fully fund efforts in the early primary and caucus states, and also participate vigorously in all the February 5 contests, including large states like California, New Jersey, New York, Georgia and Missouri,'' he wrote.

Clinton's camp has been more circumspect, publicly focusing on the January contests. But she also has been spending money in California to build a presence in that state and her aides have been touting national polls that show her as the Democrat most able to defeat the leading Republican presidential candidates.

Significantly for Obama, one-third of his fundraising dollars came from online contributors. Of his 258,000 donors, 110,000 gave through the Internet. And of those online donations, 90 percent were for $100 or less.

That suggests a level of enthusiasm for his campaign and a donor base that, because it has not given the maximum, can keep on contributing throughout the campaign.

``I get teased because I talk a lot about hope and bringing people together and leaving behind the divisions of the past. Sometimes, the reporters, the folks in Washington, say I'm being naive. They call me a hope-monger, a hope-peddler. But I am absolutely convinced ... that's what people want,'' Obama said while campaigning in New Hampshire.

Obama's appeal is similar to Howard Dean's 2003-2004 presidential bid, when Dean tapped into a motivated, broad based army of supporters. They elevated Dean from obscure former Vermont governor to a national contender. But, in a cautionary tale for Obama, that grass-roots support never materialized as votes.

How the candidates are beginning to spend their money will become more evident when they file detailed finance reports in mid-July. Clinton has yet to air any television ads and Obama only went on the air with ads last week in Iowa. Edwards, Richardson and Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., have been more aggressive with advertising, buying air time in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Obama and Clinton are on a pace to raise $90 million to $100 million each by the end of the year, a formidable sum that would allow them to eclipse the spending by Edwards, Richardson and others in states like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Florida, which is scheduled to hold its primary Jan. 29, is an expensive media market. But Obama and Clinton will also have to decide whether to bank any money for media campaigns aimed at the Feb. 5 contests.

``The leaders can't spend it all in the early states,'' Mellman said. ``On the other hand, they're not going to have enough just to muscle through on money alone in the February 5 states. They're going to have meaningful finances and some electoral momentum.''

The Edwards and Richardson's camps are counting on momentum. Edwards aides have staked out a state-hopping strategy built on a goal of raising $40 million by the time of the Iowa caucuses. Edwards has been leading in Iowa public opinion polls.

In a teleconference with reporters on Sunday, Edwards' deputy campaign manager Jonathan Prince argued that their fundraising is more than adequate to remain competitive. Hinting at a base line expense for Iowa, Prince pointed out that the state's new Democratic governor, Chet Culver, won his election by spending $8 million.

^---

EDITOR'S NOTE: Jim Kuhnhenn covers campaign fundraising and media for The Associated Press.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,,-6753071,00.html
 
Clinton locks out the people

****Please Excuse if it's a repost****
BY MARY MITCHELL Sun-Times Columnist
How do you have a "People's Rally" for a presidential candidate and lock the people out?

On Wednesday, former President Bill Clinton came to the historic Parkway Ballroom in Bronzeville to stump for his wife, U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y). Unfortunately, his speech was closed to media.

» Click to enlarge image

Former Democratic president Bill Clinton spoke to 400 Hillary Clinton supporters at the Parkway Ballroom in Bronzeville Wednesday.
(John H. White/Sun-Times)
PHOTO GALLERY

• Clinton in Chicago


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• It's the misquoting, stupid
In fact, media weren't allowed on the same side of the street where people scurried from the parking lots and jumped out of cabs to walk up a red carpet and pass through a well-guarded entryway.

Uniformed police officers ordered photographers and reporters off the public sidewalk and sent them across the street, where they took their posts in front of private residences. That put shouting distance between us and the people who were coming to hear Clinton talk up his wife's candidacy.

If you didn't know any better, you'd think it was a real rally.

At least six uniformed Chicago police officers were posted outside the Parkway. Several nearby alleys and the intersection at 45th and King Drive were blocked by police vehicles. And there's no telling how many more officers were inside with Clinton's Secret Service detail.

But no one involved with the event knew why media was being kept at bay.

Prominent supporters
Bob Nash, formerly with Shorebank and now deputy manager with Clinton's campaign, took exception to our complaints that this kind of private rally was unusual. He pointed out that other candidates often have closed events.

But come on.

Clinton comes to the backyard of U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, his wife's closest opponent, and the media can't be in the room to hear what is said? What kind of cockamamie rally is that?

Although a PR spokeswoman billed the event as a rally for a diverse group of Clinton supporters, it drew a predominantly black crowd -- some of them in their Sunday-go-to-meeting clothes.

Stacey Zolt Hara, vice president of the Res Publica Group, came outside and rattled off a list of prominent Clinton supporters who were supposedly in the rally. The list included real estate developer Elzie Higginbottom, Munir Muhammad, Bishop Larry Trotter and the Revs. James L. Demus, Tyrone Crider and Jimmy Daniels.

Jacqueline Jackson, the wife of the Rev. Jesse Jackson, and their son Yusef Jackson were also on the list. Although the Rev. and U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-Ill.) are supporting Obama, the family's allegiance is split. The situation at the Jackson household aptly captures the tug-of-war these candidates are engaged in for the black vote.

Still, given that Obama is a Chicago transplant and Illinois' junior senator, being a black Chicagoan for Clinton has to be tough.

After all, in the past this kind of contest has gotten nasty. It wasn't that long ago that black ministers and businessmen were branded traitors for standing with Mayor Daley against his black opponents, even when the black politicians didn't have a ghost of a chance.

A scripted Clinton soundbite
I suspect that the media blackout was an effort to shield Clinton's black supporters, who are either hedging their bets or are closet supporters.

Bill Clinton certainly wasn't hiding from reporters. In fact, after his appearance he came across the street and bantered back and forth until one of the Secret Service guys insisted he had to go.

Clinton's supporters, however, weren't rushing to get to a microphone.

I called out to the Rev. Janette Wilson, a longtime activist with Rainbow/PUSH. Wilson was reluctant to talk. When she did, she was adamant that she wasn't speaking for the campaign. I've known Wilson to be a fierce advocate for black candidates who were in campaigns similar to Obama's. Now she sounds like a scripted Clinton soundbite.

"I think at this point, unfortunately a woman is the best candidate," Wilson told reporters when asked why she is backing Clinton over an African-American who's poised to make history. "She really has the most experience, and it is time for a woman to take over leadership."

As polls have shown, Clinton and Obama are in a surprisingly tight race for the black vote.

Indeed, the black vote is just as critical in this Democratic primary season as it has ever been.

But Clinton's black supporters shouldn't have gotten special treatment -- especially at taxpayers' expense.
 
Re: Obama Pulls Even with Clinton


Poll: Clinton lead over Obama shrinking
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t1home.obama.clinton.gi.jpg

Clinton's lead over Obama in New Hampshire
has grown tighter according to the latest poll.

CNN Political Ticker
November 12, 2007

(CNN)–Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has seen her lead over fellow White House hopeful, Senator Barack Obama, D-Illinois, grow tighter.

In the latest poll of likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters from the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, the New York senator had 36 percent support, to Obama's 25 percent. Last month, Clinton led Obama by 21 percentage points according to Marist.

In the latest poll, former North Carolina senator John Edwards had 14 percent support, and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, had 6 percent.

On the Republican side, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney's support over his closest rival, former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani grew as well.

In a poll of likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters in October, Romney had a 6 percentage point lead. That number has increased to 11 percent according to Marist's latest poll.

In the latest poll, Romney got 33 percent support, to Giuliani's 22 percent. Senator John McCain, R-Arizona, had 13 percent support in the latest poll, with Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee both registering 7 percent support. Former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson had 5 percent support in the latest poll.

The poll involved telephone telephone interviews conducted November 2-6, with 458 likely Democratic voters and 372 likely Republican voters in New Hampshire. The margins of sampling error were 5 percentage points for Democrats, and 5.5 points for Republicans.


A poll released by the Boston Globe on Sunday, also showed both Clinton and Romney leading the latest poll of likely New Hampshire voters.

In a poll of likely Granite state Democratic primary voters, Clinton registered the support of 35 percent of those polled, to Obama's 21 percent. John Edwards was third with 15 percent support, and Richardson was fourth with 10 percent.

On the GOP side, Romney led Giuliani 32 percent to 20 percent, with McCain in third at 17 percent. Huckabee came in fourth with 5 percent support, and Thompson came in fifth with 3 percent support.

The Globe surveyed 400 likely Democratic voters, and 404 likely Republican voters in New Hampshire between November 2 to November 7. The Globe said it had a margin of error for each party sub-sample of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/11/12/poll-clinton-lead-over-obama-shrinking/
 
Re: Obama Pulls Even with Clinton

^^^

Hillary must be on suicide watch after placing THIRD in IOWA...getting very interesting now..
 
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