Super Tuesday

[QueEx]

<font size="3">
24 states, American Samoa and Democrats Abroad are scheduled to
hold caucuses or primary elections on Super Tuesday, February 5, 2008:</font size>

Blue denotes Democratic-only caucuses (3);

Dark Red denotes Republican-only state conventions (2);

Purple represents states holding elections for both parties (19);

Light red represents states which have had their republican primary before supertuesday; and

light pink represents states which have had their democratic & republican primary before supertuesday.​

 

[QueEx]

<font size="5"><center>
Obama Is Racing Against the Clock</font size><font size="4">
Short Calendar Favors Clinton</font size></center>

Sen. Barack Obama stopped at the Albuquerque
Convention Center as part of a campaign swing
through the Southwest. The quick appearances
are a challenge for Obama: Polls and election
results show that the more time he spends in
front of voters, the better he fares. (By Charles
Rex Arbogast -- Associated Press)


By Alec MacGillis and Anne E. Kornblut
Washington Post Staff Writers
Saturday, February 2, 2008; Page A01

ALBUQUERQUE, Feb. 1 -- Sen. Barack Obama has two opponents: Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and the clock, which is rapidly running down.

With three days to go before Super Tuesday, when roughly half the delegates in the Democratic presidential contest will be awarded, Obama is racing around the country, still trying to introduce himself to voters, speed-dating style.

On Tuesday, he touched down in his grandfather's home town, El Dorado, Kan., where many residents did not realize until recently -- if at all -- that Obama has Kansas roots. From there, it was on to big rallies in Kansas City, Mo.; Denver; and Phoenix, followed by Los Angeles, where he tried during an hour in East L.A. to make an impression on Hispanic voters who know little about him. On Friday: Albuquerque, Santa Fe and Boise.

Polling and election results so far suggest that the more time Obama has to present himself to voters, the better he fares. In each of the first four states where voting was sanctioned by the Democratic National Committee, Clinton maintained essentially level support in polls in the months leading up to the contests, while Obama saw a steady upward trajectory the more he campaigned. In Florida, by contrast, where the candidates did not campaign after the DNC punished the state for moving its primary to January, Clinton soundly defeated Obama, offering a rough gauge on how much the senator from Illinois relies on voter contact.

The compressed primary calendar presents a challenge for all of the remaining candidates, as they try to visit as many as possible of the more than 20 states holding elections or caucuses on Tuesday. But the time crunch is particularly acute for Obama, who, for all the hype around his candidacy, remains far less well known than Clinton. Obama vaulted into contention against her by spending week upon week in Iowa before the state's first-in-the-nation caucuses. He engaged in an intensive grass-roots effort and visited the smallest towns and the most remote county fairgrounds to introduce himself to voters, who rewarded him with a big win over his rivals.

Now, with far less time and broader territory to cover, he must make do with a radically truncated version of that outreach, relying on a single final visit to big cities to win over voters to whom he remains little more than a first-term senator with an exotic name and a reputation for oratory.

His efforts appear to be paying off, as his standing in polls inches closer and closer to Clinton's. The question is whether he has enough time to make up the gap.

"The schedule is compressed, so no doubt Senator Clinton has an advantage going into February 5 states," Obama said during one leg of his travel this week. "She's better known, and I'm still being introduced to a lot of casual voters in the other states."

The lack of time concerns Obama's rank-and-file supporters in the Feb. 5 states, who see him packing arenas this week -- 15,000-plus in Denver, 13,000 in Phoenix -- yet know that most of those turning out are the converted and that countless more undecided voters will not see Obama make his case in person.

"It worries me. Everyone in Arizona ought to see what we saw today," said Tim Nelson, a lawyer for the state government, after bringing his 9-year-old daughter to see the candidate in Phoenix.

If a few extra weeks would help Obama, the opposite is true for Clinton, whose advisers would be happy with just a few extra days, they said in interviews Friday.

Clinton at one point declared that she would have the race wrapped up by Feb. 5. Now, her strategists concede, as Obama appears to be closing the gap with her, she needs the days until then to keep pushing her message -- outreach that includes visiting critical states and luring former supporters of John Edwards, who ended his candidacy this week. "There are a lot of places to touch," one strategist said.

After a heavy emphasis on the West Coast this week, Clinton will seek to maintain her national lead between now and Tuesday with a whirlwind travel schedule that extends from Missouri to Massachusetts and is capped off with a 90-minute "national town hall meeting" conducted via satellite Monday night. Her campaign also believes that, with her performance in Thursday's debate, the senator from New York moved past questions about her husband's role in the campaign and their approach to African American voters, and is now running on comfortable ground -- the issues of health care and the economy.

Still, Clinton strategists are not planning on seeing the nomination contest end on Feb. 5. They are looking ahead to March 4, when both Ohio (161 delegates) and Texas (228 delegates) vote, as the date that could be decisive.

Obama is hardly lacking for public exposure, and he is not relying only on his personal appeals to get voters to the polls. He has well-developed organizations making phone calls and home visits in nearly all of the Feb. 5 states, a growing list of prominent surrogates to campaign on his behalf, and enough money to blanket the country with television ads.

But along the trail there are signs of the ground that Obama has to make up with many voters who have had little experience in casting a meaningful vote in the primaries and have only recently trained their minds on their choices.

In Phoenix, Cynthia and Stuart Preston said that as they were driving to Obama's rally with their children, they quizzed each other to come up with three of the candidate's major platform planks. To their surprise, they couldn't think of them. Despite that, Cynthia Preston said she is supporting Obama. She was drawn, she said, by the "popular movement" behind him.

"I don't know if he has enough time to detail [his plans in all Feb. 5 states], but if you care enough, you can do the research on your own," she said.

Aware that many voters still have basic holes in their knowledge of his background, Obama is doing his best to fill them, making sure at nearly every stop to mention details such as his years as a community organizer, the death of his mother at age 53 and the fact that he is a church-going Christian, no matter what the false rumors circulated by e-mail might say. He takes time to describe the family history that led him to where he is today.

"My own family's journey moved west -- from Kansas, where my grandparents met and married, and my mother was born; to the Pacific Coast after World War II; and then across an ocean to Hawaii," he told his audience in Denver.

At that event, supporter Becky Bowman, of Lakewood, said before Obama's speech that she figured voters in Colorado could get enough information about Obama on their own. But after witnessing him bring a diverse crowd of thousands to its feet with his characteristically rousing pitch, she wondered about the shortcomings of the rushed itinerary.

Voters "need to know the magic. You can't do that through little soundbites," she said. "It's a problem."

MacGillis is traveling with the Obama campaign. Kornblut is traveling with the Clinton campaign.



http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/01/AR2008020103714.html?hpid=topnews

 

[QueEx]

<font size="5"><center>Obama and Clinton Neck and Neck</font size><font size="4">
Both Candidates in Full Court Press Heading Into Super Tuesday</font size></center>

Black Press USA
by Zenitha Prince and Monroe Anderson
Special to the NNPA from the Afro-American Newspapers

The Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton campaigns are in a full court press in a spirited attempt to see who will outscore who for the most amount of votes and delegates in the 22 states holding presidential primaries and caucauses on Feb. 5.

Dubbed ''Super Tuesday,'' the electoral tsunami, with its 1,681 Democratic delegates, was believed to be the be-all and end-all in deciding the party's candidate for president. A total of 2,025 delegates, just 344 more than are at stake on Tuesday, are needed to secure the Democratic nomination.

However, the battle for the Democratic nomination is too-close-to-call in what is virtually a two-person contest between the candidate who would be the party's first African American standard bearer and the candidate who would be the party's first woman standard nominee.

Clinton appears to be the frontrunner early. While national polls show her with a slightly less than 10 percent lead, they also indicate that she has a double digit leads in California, New York and New Jersey. Meanwhile, Obama has a big lead in Illinois, another state with a lot of delegates.

But that doesn’t necessary predict who will win, as polls showed in New Hampshire, where Obama was predicted to win that state’s primary but loss by a small margin.

''This will be a good tight race to the end,'' said Bob Mulholland, campaign advisor with the California Democratic Party.

With 6.6 million residents, Obama, a senator from Illinois, and Clinton, a senator from New York, along with third-place challenger, former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, are all battling over California's 441 delegates.

''We will pick the winner because we're so big and it will reflect what is happening all over the country,” Mulholland said. “California polls are the last to close and we're the ones everyone will be waiting to hear about.''

While his belief was orthodoxy just weeks ago, with split decisions in the contests thus far–Obama won Iowa and South Carolina, Clinton won New Hampshire and Nevada–there is increased speculation that the Democratic contest will extend beyond Feb. 5.

Unlike the Republican Party contests, which operates frequently on a winner-take-all rule, the Democratic system requires partial proportional representation based on the vote.

That rule stems out of Rev. Jesse L. Jackson's 1984 presidential run, when he fought the Democrats' winner-take-all rule, arguing that it disenfranchised voters who had not favored the candidate with the most ballots cast.

As a direct result of Jackson's efforts, Obama would still be in the race if he can keep close to Clinton in the delegate count when the Super Tuesday results come in.

“The big thing that the media has ignored is the Democratic Party requires that all their primaries delegate delegates proportionally,” said Richard Katz, professor of political science at Johns Hopkins University. “So even if one candidate comes out three or four points ahead, they may get the same number of delegates.”

Obama has a very real chance to secure the party nomination in the weeks to come, according to the civil rights leader's son, Rep. Jesse L. Jackson, Jr, who has endorsed Obama.

Obama, coming out of a landslide victory in South Carolina, has big momentum heading into Super Tuesday, Jackson said.

''He's best positioned to get more votes,'' Jackson said. The Illinois congressman said that the strong endorsements earlier this week from Caroline Kennedy, daughter of the slain President John F. Kennedy, and his brother, Sen. Ted Kennedy, should help the Illinois senator garner votes.

David Bositis, senior analyst, Joint Center for Economic and Political Studies, said he expects Obama to do well in southern states, like Georgia and Alabama, that have large African-American populations.

“At one point, Hillary was doing as well, if not better, among Blacks,” Bositis said.

“So it’s not just about race. But they think that the Clintons have introduced race into the campaign, which they did not like.”

Arnold Fleischmann is professor of political science at the University of Georgia in a sate where the Democratic candidates will be fighting for 103 delegates.

“As I listen to middle-class Black voters and liberal White voters, there’s support for Obama and real disgust with Clinton, and especially her husband,” he said.

“Georgia has some experience with experienced Black officials who are capable of leading. So, it’s probably not that big of an obstacle for Georgians to vote for Obama.”

Clinton and Obama have been advertising heavily in the states with radio, television and print ads.

Katz said at this point the race is too close to call between Obama and Clinton.

“I think between now and Tuesday is a long time in politics, and it’s hard to assess what is going to happen given the unhappiness among Democrats with the way the Clinton campaign has comported itself and the Kennedy endorsement of Obama,” Katz said.

“My guess is that although it will cost her some votes, but she will come out marginally ahead.”

http://www.blackpressusa.com/News/Article.asp?SID=3&Title=Hot+Stories&NewsID=15161

 

[QueEx]

<font size=5"><center>National Super Tuesday poll shows
dramatic Democratic shift </font size></center>

CNN
From Paul Steinhauser
February 4, 2008

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton is losing ground to Sen. Barack Obama in a national CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released on the eve of critical Super Tuesday presidential primaries and caucuses.

The two are virtually tied in Monday's survey, which shows the New York senator has lost a comfortable national lead she's held for months over Obama and other rivals.

The survey also shows Arizona Sen. John McCain as the clear Republican front-runner.

Obama, who trounced Clinton in January's South Carolina primary, garnered 49 percent of registered Democrats in Monday's poll, while Clinton trailed by just three points, a gap well within the survey's 4.5 percentage point margin of error.

"Coming out of his overwhelming victory in South Carolina and followed quickly by his Kennedy family endorsements, Obama clearly has the momentum in this campaign," said Bill Schneider, CNN's senior political analyst.

Obama has won support from Sen. Edward Kennedy and his nieces Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg and Maria Shriver, although Clinton has endorsements from former Maryland Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, the daughter of Robert Kennedy, and her brother Bobby Kennedy and sister Kerry.

The poll is consistent with other national surveys during the past few days. A CNN averaging of five national polls conducted in the last few days -- a "poll of polls" -- puts Clinton at 45 percent and Obama at 43 percent. Those five surveys were done by CNN/Opinion Research Corp., Gallup, Pew, ABC and CBS.

In the battle for the GOP nomination, McCain has the backing of 44 percent of registered Republicans, while former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney received 29 percent, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee got 18 percent and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas won 6 percent.

McCain took the top spot in most national surveys of Republican voters after his January 8 victory in the New Hampshire primary.

Prior to that, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani had the lead in the national polls. Giuliani gave up his bid for the White House last week after a third-place finish in Florida's primary.

CNN's "poll of polls" of the Republican race puts McCain at 45 percent compared with 24 percent for Romney.

"McCain is clearly the front-runner nationwide, thanks in part to his recent victories in South Carolina and Florida. Both McCain and Obama are on the rise not only because they've won important primary victories but because they've captured the change issue. Clinton and Romney tried to echo the change theme but don't appear to have had much success," Schneider said.

The economy remains the top issue on the minds of Americans, according to the new poll. Two-thirds of those questioned say that the economy is in a recession. That's up five points from January and 20 points from October.

The economy ranked as the most important issue to 44 percent of those surveyed, while 20 percent cited the war in Iraq and 16 percent identified healthcare. Illegal immigration was the most important issue to 10 percent of respondents, while 8 percent cited terrorism.

"Clinton has an advantage among registered Democrats on most issues, including the economy and health care, but Obama is seen as the candidate who would best handle Iraq," said Keating Holland, CNN's polling director.

"Republicans nationwide see McCain as best able to handle Iraq and terrorism but view Romney as the candidate most likely to handle the economy," he said. "Mike Huckabee is seen as the GOP candidate who would best handle abortion."

The poll results come out one day before Super Tuesday, which is as close as the country comes to a national primary, as contests will be held 24 states and American Samoa.

The Democratic candidates will compete for 1,681 Democratic delegates Tuesday, less than 400 shy of the 2,025 needed to clinch the nomination. On the Republican side, 1,020 delegates are at stake, just shy of the 1,191 needed to lock up the GOP nomination.

National polls may not be the best indicator of what could happen on Super Tuesday. A look at polls in the crucial states voting Tuesday could give a clearer indication of what may occur.

In the Democratic race, two new polls in California have Clinton up by single digits. New surveys suggest the race is virtually tied in Arizona and Missouri. Clinton leads in Connecticut and New Jersey and is ahead by double digits in her home state of New York. Obama leads in Georgia and is the clear front-runner in his home state of Illinois.

McCain has a single-digit lead in California over Romney. That could be one reason why Romney has added a last-minute campaign stop in California on Monday. Polls suggest McCain has large leads in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Illinois, but he's only ahead by single digits in Georgia and Missouri.

The key to many races are undecided voters, which could make up from 10 to 15 percent of those who cast ballots.

There is one thing Democrats and Republicans agree upon, according to the poll, 58 percent of registered Democrats and 56 percent of registered Republicans say clear winners won't emerge from Super Tuesday.

Looking ahead to the general election in November, Clinton tops McCain 50 percent to 47 percent and beats Romney 56 to 41 in hypothetical matchups. Obama beats McCain 52 percent to 44 percent and tops Romney 59 percent to 36 percent.

"Issues also appear to play a big role as registered voters nationwide look ahead to general elections matchups," Holland said.

"Will the race boil down to a fight over foreign policy, or will 2008 be the year of 'It's the Economy, Stupid -- the Sequel'? If it's foreign policy, McCain has the edge -- he is seen as better able to handle Iraq and terrorism than Clinton or Obama. If it's the economy, which is the top issue with voters, the Democrats have an advantage; either Clinton or Obama is seen as better able to handle the economy than McCain," Keating said.

The poll surveyed 1,192 adults. Of 974 registered voters, 500 described themselves as Democrats and 412 identified themselves as Republicans.

The poll was conducted by telephone from February 1-3, 2008.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/04/national.poll/

 

[QueEx]

<font size="4"><center>SUPER TUESDAY OUTLOOK: OBAMA'S SURGE </font size></center>

New York Post
By DICK MORRIS
February 4, 2008

February 4, 2008 -- AS we approach Super Tues day, Barack Obama has been surging all week - closing the enormous gap he once faced in most key states. But his momentum has yet to carry him over the top. Hillary Clinton still clings to leads, sometimes narrow, in the bulk of the states in play.

Of the 10 states with reliable and recent poll data, Hillary leads in eight, although by razor-thin margins in California, Alabama, Missouri, Connecticut and New Jersey. Only in New York, Massachusetts and Tennessee does her lead seem secure.

How did the Clinton machine falter so badly? And will the trend for Obama continue?

Every election is, at some level, a simple conversation between the two camps. Obama began the campaign by saying he was new; Hillary replied that he was inexperienced. Obama answered that he was a voice for change - and that was the state of discussion leading up to Iowa.

Then, after losing Iowa and almost failing in New Hampshire, the Clintons basically panicked and played the race card - injecting it into a contest that had been colorblind.

While Hillary emphasizes in every speech that she could be the first woman president, Obama had rarely mentioned race. He ran for the Democratic nomination like a Republican black - never summoning victim status and avoiding racial remarks entirely.

Had the Clintons shut up and let the black voters of South Carolina do their talking for them, the block African-American vote there for Obama would've brought the race issue home to undecided white voters, triggering a pro-Hillary backlash. But they couldn't keep quiet. Their oh-so-subtle racial innuendo (for which I doubt they thought they would get caught), philosophizing about the relative roles Martin Luther King and President Lyndon Johnson in achieving civil rights, landed them in the hot water.

With nothing else new to say, Hillary, in effect, countered Obama's message of change by saying "You're black." When Bill compared Obama to Jesse Jackson, the point was obvious.

But Obama parried with great skill in his victory speech in South Carolina by stipulating that the election was about overcoming divisions and coming together as a nation.

That brilliant move left the Clintons flat-footed.

Hillary's performance in the week after South Carolina was scripted and prosaic - a mere repetition of her rhetorical lines from the past. Like a juke box, she played poll-tested golden oldies all week - hoping we'd all sing along with her choruses.

It's been as if the Clintons, lacking dirt to throw, had nothing to say.

Yet Obama's gains still leave him shy of his mark. Tomorrow may bring a deadening roll call of narrow Hillary wins, particularly in the eight caucus states, where her control of the party apparatus gives her an edge.

Hillary has a reserve army of poor, single, white women whose support is intense and unwavering. It might be enough to pull her through. Or Obama's surge could continue, with his eloquence and positioning on the diversity issue transforming narrow defeats to victories in a host of toss-up states.

*


The Republican primaries are all but over. Of the 10 states with decent poll data, John McCain has leads in eight, with Mitt Romney ahead only in his native Massachusetts and Mike Huckabee leading in Georgia. Most GOP states award delegates on a winner-take-all basis, so McCain's lead in delegates coming out of Tuesday should be insurmountable.

McCain's likely nomination is, of course, very bad news for the Democrats. He is, by far, the candidate most likely to beat Hillary in November. The very immigration bill that made him anathema to many conservatives can help him attract significant Hispanic support, while the bitterness of the Clinton-Obama contest is likely to drive many anti-Hillary Independents and Democrats to support the moderate maverick from Arizona. (One thinks of how anger at Lyndon Johnson drove many liberals to vote for Nixon against Humphrey in 1968).

McCain should have little real difficulty in consolidating the Republican and conservative ranks behind him - especially if his adversary is Hillary Clinton. Animosity to the New York senator may be just the elixir McCain needs to unite his party.


http://www.nypost.com/php/pfriendly...super_tuesday_outlook__obamas_surge_43144.htm

 

[kesq]

This race is amazing. The ground is shifting by the hour.

Great post counselor. I'd stay but I gotta go hit the phone banks.

 

[AgentCreed]

I have a question I'm in ny where can I find my voter info...I am a registered independent and voted in the last national election for president...is there anything else I have to do or do I have to go and just vote in my district or can I look it up online? I'd like to vote 2moro...any help?

 

[VegasGuy]

SUPER TUESDAY OUTLOOK: OBAMA'S SURGE

Super Wednesday Outlook:

-VG

 

[VegasGuy]

I have a question I'm in ny where can I find my voter info...I am a registered independent and voted in the last national election for president...is there anything else I have to do or do I have to go and just vote in my district or can I look it up online? I'd like to vote 2moro...any help?

The best thing you can do is contact a local Obama headquarters or field office and ask how your state handles registered Independents. They are up on all the latest law for NY.

I think in NY you can only vote democrat if you are a registered democrat. Not sure if they don't allow on site registrations like they do in Nevada. It's new for this year here.

Now quit waiting until the last minute to do shit. It's important not to slack off on this.

-VG

 

[QueEx]

Get at em VG! LOL. You gave him good advice: call and quick.
The info for NY and probably the rest of the states was posted
on this board a couple of weeks back -- but at this point -- its
best he do as you said (get in touch quick) because info posted
might be in error and there is no way we can fix that at this
late date.

QueEx

 

[QueEx]

This race is amazing. The ground is shifting by the hour.

Great post counselor. I'd stay but I gotta go hit the phone banks.

You too! LOL. I've been giving my office phone system up for the effort for
the last month or so and we act as an organizing point for GOTV activities.

QueEx

 

[AgentCreed]

i found out. i can't vote in the primary only ppl associated with a party in ny can vote...i can vote in the other stuff but can't vote tmw...if i had known on jan 6th i woulda switched to dem voted then switched back to independent...its my fault i wasn't really thinking about the primary as i should have...well here's hoping barak gets ny.

 

[QueEx]

<font size="5"><center>Obama Closes In on Clinton
As McCain Lengthens Lead</font size><font size="4">
In California Race, Poll Puts Democrats Nearly in Dead Heat</font size></center>

By JACKIE CALMES
February 4, 2008; Page A1

On the eve of tomorrow's near-national contest for each party's presidential nominee, Democrat Hillary Clinton has lost much of her longtime polling lead over Barack Obama both nationally and in grand prize California, while Republican John McCain has surged ahead for a potentially decisive edge.


VIDEO

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Barack Obama has opened narrow leads on Hillary Clinton in California and
Missouri, according to the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll. Video courtesy
of Reuters.




Tomorrow's votes could crown Sen. McCain, the Arizona senator, his party's presumptive nominee. The Democrats' battle more likely will grind on, since their party rules award convention delegates proportionate to candidates' votes in each state rather than giving them all to the winner.

Sen. Obama, of Illinois, and Sen. Clinton, of New York, could battle to a draw. But many Democratic activists say Sen. Obama stands to gain momentum, given his advantage in states voting after tomorrow, his campaign's financial strength and his ability to withstand the Clinton machine. That could matter to the party's "super delegates" -- uncommitted Democratic party leaders in each state who aren't up for grabs in the nomination contests but who could ultimately help determine the winner.

Sen. McCain now has a 2-to-1 lead nationally over chief rival Mitt Romney, according to new polls from Gallup, the Pew Research Center and the Washington Post-ABC News. On the Democratic side, they show Sen. Obama has shaved Sen. Clinton's once-formidable national advantage to single digits.

Such polls are hardly predictive, as shown last month when no major surveys foresaw Sen. Clinton's victory in New Hampshire's primary. Then, as now, state and national polls show a large number of undecided voters in both parties, making predictions dicey.

Last month, when the candidates were campaigning in one state at a time, national polls were meaningless for anticipating what voters in New Hampshire or Iowa thought. But with nearly half the states voting tomorrow, national polls can provide a snapshot of the electorate.

The number, size and coast-to-coast range of states voting on "Super Tuesday" makes tomorrow unprecedented in the history of the presidential-nominating process. Primaries or caucuses will be held in 24 states, compared with 10 states on the biggest voting day in 2004. Both parties have votes in 19 states, while Democrats caucus in three more and Republicans in two. Just over half of Democrats' 3,253 pledged delegates are at stake, and 41% of Republicans' 2,380 total.

The battlefield is bigger than it has been for the November general election in recent decades. The general-election campaigns have come down to a dozen or so competitive battleground states, since the rest tend to favor one party or the other. In tomorrow's intra-party contests, every state counts as the major candidates seek more delegates. With just days to campaign, and the cost of advertising, the candidates' stamina and campaign budgets are being tested.

"There's never been anything like it," says Democratic pollster Geoff Garin, who hasn't committed to either candidate. "And there's the sheer economics of it, of how campaigns approach their deployment."

The pileup is a consequence of other states' frustration with the influence of the geographically balanced foursome -- Iowa and New Hampshire, and, more recently, South Carolina and Nevada -- whose early-voting status is blessed by party rules. The others over the past year rushed to reschedule their primaries and caucuses on Feb. 5, the earliest date that both parties allow. But the crush blunted the influence sought by the states, which hoped to get candidates to pay attention to their particular issues in return for votes.


California is the exception. Its huge delegate total -- 370 for Democrats, or about 18% of the number of delegates needed to win the nomination, and 173 for Republicans, or just under 15% -- makes the Golden State truly golden in the nominating race for the first time in three decades.

The Field Poll, a prominent California poll, yesterday had Sen. Clinton, who formerly had a huge lead, in a 36%-to-34% statistical dead heat with Sen. Obama. Sen. McCain has an eight-point edge over his next closest competitor, Mr. Romney, the former Massachusetts governor. Significantly, the poll has Sen. McCain statistically tied with Sen. Clinton in a hypothetical matchup, suggesting Democrats' lock on the state and its 55 electoral votes -- critical to their hopes for the White House -- could be picked. Sen. Obama bests Sen. McCain in a hypothetical face-off by seven percentage points.

Since tomorrow's state contests are party affairs, the candidates are stumping in places their party nominees rarely do for general elections. For example, Sen. McCain ended yesterday in heavily Democratic Massachusetts -- showing strength in former Gov. Romney's home state -- while Sen. Obama Saturday drew an estimated 13,000 to a rally in overwhelmingly Republican Idaho.

In a year in which Democrats have enthusiasm on their side against a Republican Party demoralized by an unpopular president and the war in Iraq, the Obama campaign argues that his appeal to new voters among the young, minorities and independents could put states in play for Democrats that rarely are, including Southern states such as Georgia and Alabama where black voters are a significant share of the electorate. The Clinton campaign counters that she is drawing new female voters.

The vastness of the playing field has spawned new tactics. Sen. Clinton tonight hosts a national "town hall" discussion to be broadcast on the Internet and cable TV. Sen. Obama, exploiting his huge financial edge, has spent $11 million on 17 Super Tuesday states and six more states voting in coming weeks, including $250,000 for last night's Super Bowl, according to the campaign. The Republicans are too financially strapped to run many national ads, even the resurgent Sen. McCain; Mr. Romney is digging deeper into his personal wealth.

Sens. Clinton and Obama remain from what began as a nine-person Democratic race. Four of the original 10 Republicans survive, but Sen. McCain's chief rival is Mr. Romney. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has been siphoning conservatives' votes from Mr. Romney. Texas Rep. Ron Paul, the antiwar libertarian, has a small following, though Republicans say he could win tomorrow's caucuses in Alaska.


Democrats

Regardless of states won, many Democratic strategists expect Sen. Clinton and Sen. Obama to roughly split the delegates tomorrow, with each reaping roughly 800 toward the 2,025 majority needed for the nomination.

"Proportional representation" will "make it impossible for somebody to pull ahead," says Democratic consultant Tad Devine, who is uncommitted. Nevada's caucuses last month were a case in point: Sen. Clinton won overall, but Sen. Obama got more delegates under Nevada's formula since his support was more geographically dispersed.

The Clinton camp's best-case scenario is to become the perceived winner by capturing majorities in California; Sen. Clinton's home state of New York and next-door New Jersey; former home state Arkansas; Tennessee, which has fewer black voters than other Southern states; and in at least one of a group of states where Sen. Obama is competitive -- Connecticut, Massachusetts, Arizona and Missouri.

Her strength remains women voters, and about 60% or more of Democratic primary and caucus voters are female. She also counts on Latino voters in several states where they are a significant population, notably California. Yesterday, former President Clinton, Sen. Clinton's husband, watched the Super Bowl in New Mexico with Gov. Bill Richardson, the Hispanic governor who hasn't yet endorsed anyone since leaving the presidential race last month.

The Obama forces aren't conceding the Latino vote. Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano, who is going all out for Sen. Obama, says, "I don't think we can measure what the Latino vote is" because excitement is so high that many first-time voters are likely to turn out.

Sen. Obama could well win more states overall -- one way to define victory -- though that would include the smallest ones delegate-wise. He is expected to win big in home state Illinois, which is the third-richest in delegates with 153 after California and New York; in Georgia and perhaps Alabama, and in most of the seven states holding caucuses instead of primaries. Democrats say he has a grass-roots organizational advantage that is critical in getting voters to caucuses, which are more time-consuming than simply voting by secret ballot.

Both candidates already are looking beyond tomorrow. Mr. Clinton has campaigned in Ohio, which votes March 4. Sen. Obama is campaigning and advertising in Washington state, Nebraska, Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia, which vote later this month.

"The longer it drags out, the better it is for Barack," says former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, an Obama campaigner.

Republicans

Mr. Romney won Maine's small Republican caucuses over the weekend, but that isn't seen as a harbinger. Sen. McCain sealed his front-runner status with last week's Florida victory, and -- despite conservatives' undying suspicions of the maverick senator -- establishment Republicans in Super Tuesday states have been jumping aboard his bandwagon.

About half the states are winner-take-all for delegates, as Republican rules allow, and Sen. McCain expects to win the lion's share. That includes a combined 183 from New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. The tri-state's winner-take-all rules were drawn to benefit former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, but he dropped out of the race after losing in Florida, in part because Sen. McCain's strength in Mr. Giuliani's home base was already evident in polls.

"It's hard to see how somebody would overtake him at this point. He's got the momentum, and the national name I.D." that you need for a national primary, says former McCain campaign manager Terry Nelson. McCain adviser Steve Schmidt sees "a very, very good night" tomorrow.

Florida also showed that Sen. McCain could win in states with contests open only to Republicans, and closed to the independents whose support he has counted on in past contests. Two-thirds of the states voting tomorrow allow only registered Republicans to vote in that party's contests, including in California. Mr. Romney still argues he has an advantage over Sen. McCain when independents are excluded. He is doing his best to persuade conservatives that he's essentially in a two-man race with Sen. McCain for "the heart and soul of the Republican Party."

But Mr. Huckabee is refusing to give Mr. Romney a two-man race in fact, and draws support that otherwise would more likely go to Mr. Romney than Sen. McCain. Mr. Huckabee is campaigning mostly among fellow Christian conservatives, especially in the South -- in Georgia, Alabama and his home state of Arkansas.

"One of the challenges we do have right now," Romney spokesman Kevin Madden says, "is making the case to those folks that are voting for Huckabee...that you're voting for someone who's not going to win the nomination" and "if we're going to keep this a center-right party, that you vote for Gov. Romney."

Write to Jackie Calmes at jackie.calmes@wsj.com

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120206305479638875.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news

 

[GET YOU HOT]

Obama realized California is an important state, when he placed his headquarters here, don't be suprised to see him on top in the Golden State and a couple of others. Expect him to be neck and neck with Clinton after Tuesday...

 

[QueEx]

Obama realized California is an important state, when he placed his headquarters here, don't be suprised to see him on top in the Golden State and a couple of others. Expect him to be neck and neck with Clinton after Tuesday...

I keep hearing that people in California began voting, presumably by some kind of absentee ballot, a week or more ago and, although it appears that Barack is surging and, perhaps, has surpassed Hillary among would-be voters, its possible that some of those who have come over to Obama have already cast their ballots in favor of Hillary.

QueExc

 

[kesq]

It's possible, but I don't think it is likely. Most poll analysis indicates that generally, Clinton's support is rock solid and steady. Obama, on the other hand, has gained strength not by coverting Clinton supporters, but by pulling in independents, new voters, and now, Edwards and Kuncinich supporters. Anyone who voted early for Hillary would have voted late for her,and we never had a realistic expectation of converting them. Further, with respect to polls, I think early voters would be captured in routine polling data as simply supporting whoever they voted for.

That said, there is no telling what is going to happen tomorrow.

 

[QueEx]

Man, this has been one of the most exciting presidential races that I can recall and I can't wait to see the results in Cali and the other Super Tuesday races. I participated in an early voting sessions because polling stations will be severely limited and people are likely to be extremely inebriated today. Its Fat Tuesday, a/k/a Mardi Gras today. Laissez Les Bon Temps Roulez!

QueEx

 

[QueEx]

<font size="4">
Tuesday, February 05 </font size>

Race: New Jersey Democratic Primary
Poll: Rasmussen
Results: Clinton 49, Obama 43
Spread: Clinton +6

Race: Alabama Republican Primary
Poll: InsiderAdvantage
Results: McCain 29, Huckabee 38, Romney 20, Paul 6
Spread: Huckabee +9


Race: Alabama Democratic Primary
Poll: InsiderAdvantage
Results: Clinton 43, Obama 45
Spread: Obama +2


Race: Georgia Republican Primary
Poll: InsiderAdvantage
Results: McCain 32, Romney 29, Huckabee 32, Paul 3
Spread: Tie


Race: California Democratic Primary
Poll: Reuters/CSpan/Zogby
Results: Obama 49, Clinton 36
Spread: Obama +13


Race: California Democratic Primary
Poll: SurveyUSA
Results: Obama 42, Clinton 52
Spread: Clinton +10


Race: California Republican Primary
Poll: SurveyUSA
Results: McCain 39, Romney 38, Huckabee 11, Paul 5
Spread: McCain +1


Race: California Republican Primary
Poll: Reuters/CSpan/Zogby
Results: McCain 33, Romney 40, Huckabee 12, Paul 3
Spread: Romney +7


Race: New York Republican Primary
Poll: Reuters/CSpan/Zogby
Results: McCain 56, Romney 20, Huckabee 7, Paul 2
Spread: McCain +36


Race: New Jersey Democratic Primary
Poll: Reuters/CSpan/Zogby
Results: Clinton 46, Obama 41
Spread: Clinton +5


Race: New Jersey Republican Primary
Poll: Reuters/CSpan/Zogby
Results: McCain 53, Romney 24, Huckabee 5, Paul 4
Spread: McCain +29


Race: Missouri Republican Primary
Poll: Reuters/CSpan/Zogby
Results: McCain 34, Huckabee 27, Romney 25, Paul 4
Spread: McCain +7


Race: Missouri Democratic Primary
Poll: Reuters/CSpan/Zogby
Results: Clinton 42, Obama 45
Spread: Obama +3


Race: Georgia Democratic Primary
Poll: Reuters/CSpan/Zogby
Results: Obama 49, Clinton 29
Spread: Obama +20


Race: General Election: McCain vs. Clinton
Poll: NPR
Results: McCain 48, Clinton 45, Und 3
Spread: McCain +3


Race: General Election: McCain vs. Obama
Poll: NPR
Results: McCain 48, Obama 47, Und 3
Spread: McCain +1


Race: General Election: Romney vs. Clinton
Poll: NPR
Results: Romney 44, Clinton 49, Und 2
Spread: Clinton +5


Race: General Election: Romney vs. Obama
Poll: NPR
Results: Romney 41, Obama 53, Und 3
Spread: Obama +12




http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

 

[kesq]

Man, this has been one of the most exciting presidential races that I can recall and I can't wait to see the results in Cali and the other Super Tuesday races. I participated in an early voting sessions because polling stations will be severely limited and people are likely to be extremely inebriated today. Its Fat Tuesday, a/k/a Mardi Gras today. Laissez Les Bon Temps Roulez!

QueEx

Oui, Oui, if what that means is "get drunk and look at some titties."

Seriously though, a report from a white burb in southern Calif-

Something is in the air. I'm hearing a fair number of backhanded slights to Obama on the radio. White people are looking at me funny. In fact, even though I have been living and voting in my lily white neighborhood for 6 years, it seems like today is the first day the people at the precinct noticed me. I mean, white women are flicnching and shit like I pinched them, even though I'm about 5 feet away.

I haven't seen white folks act like this since about 1 hour after the Rodney King verdict, which was right before the uprising started. Heh heh heh.

But no telling what's gonna happen, so just vote, and hope.

 

[kesq]

Overall, not as good as we hoped, but better than we expected, except in Calif. In Cali, it appears that not only the Latinos, but also the Asians went for Hillary. Nationally, it looks like Obama won the delegate hunt tonight, and the next round of states plays to his strengths. Plus, Only one more big latino state (Texas) and if anyone knows of any big Asian states, clue me in.

I still stand by my last post, and I would add to it what I think I'm seeing from the pundits and the political hacks. Some folks are truly afraid of this Brother, and they really wish he would stumble, and accept for the VP slot. That alone is proof to me that Obama brings real change.

Gotta admit. This is the most fun I have ever had watching politics.

 

[Makkonnen]

Kesq - Cosign

What people are overlooking is that it was only within the past WEEK that he got the Kennedys and La Opinion and a lot of other endorsements. If those came weeks ago would Hillary still be in the race? Obviously not.

The more time people have to see Obama the better he does against a Clinton.
The candidate with the built in name recognition and political support from cronies can only manage to tie a new guy. That must be some new guy.
Examine the poll changes over the past month. Apply that rate of change over 3 more months and who's the winner? Obama has the money and inclination to pressure those superdelegates into voting like their states have too.
This is going to get nasty.

What I appreciate most from this election is democratic racists showing their true colors. They can't help themselves. Nothing better than seeing a fake liberal go off on a racist rant cuz theyre mad Billary is catchin a beat down/a black man might become president.

 

[kesq]

What I appreciate most from this election is democratic racists showing their true colors. They can't help themselves. Nothing better than seeing a fake liberal go off on a racist rant cuz theyre mad Billary is catchin a beat down/a black man might become president.

Well put. Made my day.

 

[thoughtone]

Kesq - Cosign

What people are overlooking is that it was only within the past WEEK that he got the Kennedys and La Opinion and a lot of other endorsements. If those came weeks ago would Hillary still be in the race? Obviously not.

The more time people have to see Obama the better he does against a Clinton.
The candidate with the built in name recognition and political support from cronies can only manage to tie a new guy. That must be some new guy.
Examine the poll changes over the past month. Apply that rate of change over 3 more months and who's the winner? Obama has the money and inclination to pressure those superdelegates into voting like their states have too.
This is going to get nasty.

What I appreciate most from this election is democratic racists showing their true colors. They can't help themselves. Nothing better than seeing a fake liberal go off on a racist rant cuz theyre mad Billary is catchin a beat down/a black man might become president.

Question is if Hillary gets the nomination, are you going to vote for McCain?

 

[QueEx]

Kesq: I read your comments earlier, but hadn't had an opportunity to reply. Its one of those hectic days and the Mardi Gras that I drank yesterday is obviously slowing me down. LOL

Makk: I think your comments are on it.


I read a couple of articles this morning that I wanted to post that discusses where the race goes from yesterday. I'll post them later -- if someone doesn't post some interesting ones before then.

Now -- off to try to save a bond deal going sour.

QueEx

 

[BigUnc]

Both candidates had a good Super Tuesday. Neither could claim victory.

What's next?

I suspect the race will continue this back and forth with the delegate count pretty much remaining close until March 4. This is the best opportunity for either one to take a decisive lead in actual votes and delegates. If that happens superdelegates will probably begin moving in the direction of that person.

I'm getting a little ahead of myself by saying there's a real possibility that neither Clinton nor Obama will have the needed delegates after the late May early June primaries. If that possibility occurs then it's up to the superdelegates to choose who the nominee for the democrats will be.

I'm not making any predictions on who the dem nominee will be. Not yet, maybe in a week or 2. I will make the prediction that Latinos/Latinas will be the swing vote this year and decide who will be the next President.

 

[Makkonnen]

Question is if Hillary gets the nomination, are you going to vote for McCain?

I won't vote for McCain since he probably wouldn't live through one term, although I have other reasons for not voting for him.

If Hillary is the nominee, I would suggest Obama make up a new third party. The Patriot Party or some such thing. I bet he'd still win. I know that isn't likely though.

Hillary won't be the nominee.

Kesq: I read your comments earlier, but hadn't had an opportunity to reply. Its one of those hectic days and the Mardi Gras that I drank yesterday is obviously slowing me down. LOL

Makk: I think your comments are on it.


I read a couple of articles this morning that I wanted to post that discusses where the race goes from yesterday. I'll post them later -- if someone doesn't post some interesting ones before then.

Now -- off to try to save a bond deal going sour.

QueEx

Im about to post some VERY juicy news about Billary that will show how weak she really is.

 

[thoughtone]

I won't vote for McCain since he probably wouldn't live through one term, although I have other reasons for not voting for him.

You got jokes!

 

[Makkonnen]

You got jokes!

Jokes?

 

[Zero]

Excellent Super Tuesday analysis on Talk Back today...

I cut out some of the fat in the audio because WBAI is fundraising. The audio is in three parts...

1. Super Tuesday analysis
2. Discussion on the Hispanic vote (Howard Jordan)
3. Middle East issue as it affects the next President

Excellent and unbiased conversation on the election.

 

[sharkbait28]

Re: Excellent Super Tuesday analysis on Talk Back today...

Thanks for the drop bro.....listening now.