Russia Report: Explaining Moscow’s Actions Would Expose the West’s Hypocrisy

MCP

International
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Russia Report: Explaining Moscow’s Actions Would Expose the West’s Hypocrisy

National security discourse is a serious business for serious people, or so those engaged in it would have us believe.

In reality, that seriousness is rarely more than a veneer, concealing layers of self-serving ideology, wrapped around a core commitment to state power, rather than public safety. The way the political class talks about Vladimir Putin’s Russia is a good example of this.

Last week’s headlines were dominated by the release of a report from Parliament’s intelligence and security committee into Russian interference in British politics. The report’s conclusions on disinformation-peddling, influence-buying, and the UK government’s response have been amply covered elsewhere. What’s more interesting is the now-familiar meta-narrative around UK-Russia relations that frames the report’s arguments.

Pedalling fantasies.

When analysing a security threat, one might assume that it would be worthwhile to assess our adversary’s motivations and the strategic rationale behind their actions. However, the committee makes no serious attempt to do so. Instead, the threat Russia poses is described as “fundamentally nihilistic” and shaped by “paranoia” about Western intentions. Moscow, the report states, is committed to “an undemocratic ‘might is right’ world order”, in stark contrast to the ‘rules-based international order’ that the democratic West espouses.

Remember, this is not a propaganda document for broad public consumption, but one that will only be read by a sub-section of the political class. You would expect politicians to tell the public that our national enemies are mad, wilful wreckers, while we ourselves are pure as the driven snow. The surprise is to find them telling themselves the same fairytales.

Almost as an embarrassed aside, the report mumbles briefly that Russia “wishes to be seen as a resurgent ‘great power’”. This is a point so widely understood by informed observers that it would have been absurd to omit it altogether, much as the committee might have wanted to. However, in terms of making sense of what is driving Moscow, it is deserving of far more substantive engagement than a throwaway sentence. Perhaps what is awkward here is that Moscow’s motivations and actions as an international power bear more than a passing resemblance to those of the UK and its allies.

The report frames post-Soviet history as a story of the West seeking partnership with Moscow, only to be inexplicably rebuffed. But in actual fact, the West exploited political disarray and economic collapse in Russia to effect an opportunistic eastward advance, through NATO and EU enlargement, thus violating multiple assurances given to Mikhail Gorbachev as the Cold War wound down. The objective was to expand the West’s geopolitical domain and to limit any future revival of Russian power. Predictably, Russia objected and has been trying to break out of these constraints ever since. It is a squalid geopolitical power struggle that both sides are engaged in, not one that Moscow has generated out of thin air.

The same hypocrisy.

It is also worth delving into the distinction the report sets up between a Britain committed to a ‘rules-based international order’ and a Putin regime intent on tearing that order down. Again, this is a familiar theme in the broader national security discourse, where the term ‘rules-based international order’ is repeated like an incantation. Again, it is ahistorical nonsense.

It is clear that the Western powers are committed to a world order largely shaped by institutions such as NATO, the UN Security Council, the IMF, the World Bank and the European Union. These are, after all, institutions dominated by the Western powers. It is also clear that when the rules that are supposed to define this order begin to chafe, those powers are happy to dispense with them.

Indeed, there was precious little sense of a “Rules Based International Order” when the US and UK launched an unprovoked war of aggression to conquer Iraq in 2003. Nor has there been over the last five years, as those same powers enabled a Saudi bombing campaign in Yemen, characterised by widespread and systematic violations of international law. Palestinians see little evidence of a “Rules Based International Order” when Israel spends decades colonising the occupied territories in flagrant violation of the Fourth Geneva convention, with arms and diplomatic cover provided by the West under the veil of a “peace process”. These are merely the most egregious recent examples of violations which are, for the West, the norm, not the exception.

What’s interesting and revealing here is that Putin himself claims to be committed to the supposed ‘rules-based international order’, as opposed to a West, which he accuses of wrecking that system. Putin has been explicit on many occasions about his objection to the West’s failure to respect the principle of state sovereignty, for example in the invasion of Iraq.

Indeed, the 1990s and 2000s saw many attempts by the Atlantic powers to carve out exceptions to the sovereignty principle in order to justify their exertions of military power. Putin’s hypocrisy here mirrors that of the West, as he violates state sovereignty at will, from Ukraine to Libya, while building up a monumental record of wartime atrocities, from Chechnya at the start of his reign to Syria in the present day.

The antagonism between Russia and the West, therefore, is hardly a Manichean clash of good versus evil. Both sides seek to carve out domains of influence, often through military aggression (most notably in the Middle East); both make opportunistic appeals to international norms and rules and then violate them whenever it is convenient, and both have a sense of entitlement to maximum strategic power in the world system.

To explain is not to excuse.

There is something important to be gained from acknowledging the parallels between the motivations and actions of these competing powers. The exercise allows us to see the issue of national security as one of a dynamic between states, rather than inexplicable aggression from one toward an innocent other. Once that is understood, we can begin to look at how this antagonism might be de-escalated through dialogue and negotiation, rather than ramped up through mutually-reinforcing belligerence.

During the war on terror, those of us who attempted to offer an analysis of the roots of the terrorist threat were accused by the state and its outriders of seeking to excuse and justify the crimes of the enemy of the day. That enemy was, once again, presented as simply ‘nihilistic’, rather than arising from a historical context and driven by specific objectives.

As we now know, the war on terror generated an intensification of the very threat that it claimed to address. If we can rise to the basic level of grasping that to explain is not to excuse, then perhaps we can formulate a response to today’s political challenges that really does serve the needs of international security.
 

MCP

International
International Member
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US President Donald Trump (R) walks with Russia's President Vladimir Putin before taking a family photo at the G20 Summit in Osaka on June 28, 2019

Senate Report Shows What Mueller Missed About Trump and Russia
The final Senate report provides damning evidence of the counterintelligence threat posed by Russia in Trump’s 2016 campaign.


When Donald Trump traveled to Moscow in November 1996, looking for real estate development opportunities, he didn’t get a hotel deal in Moscow, but he may have found a new woman, and the Russian government probably knew about it, according to the Senate Intelligence Committee’s remarkable new report on the committee’s three and a half year investigation into Trump and Russia.

Trump met the Russian woman through his business connections at a party at a luxury hotel in Moscow, and the two apparently had a brief affair, at a time when Trump was married to his second wife, Marla Maples. The Senate report has redacted the woman’s name and blacked out her face in photos taken of her with Trump at the time and provided to the committee. But the report explains in detail how Russian intelligence operatives keep track of the sexual activities of visiting foreign business executives, and notes that the Moscow-based U.S. businessman who introduced Trump to the woman probably told Russian government officials about it.

The story of Trump’s alleged Moscow affair is in keeping with the bipartisan and comprehensive nature of the Senate report, which is at turns both reassuring and alarming. While it debunks the so-called Steele Dossier, which was highlighted by a wild accusation that Trump had two women urinate on his bed in his Moscow hotel room in 2013, the Senate report examines in detail the less tawdry, but far more plausible, story that Trump had a brief affair on his earlier trip to Moscow and the Russians knew about it.

In fact, the Senate report dismisses many of the most outrageous accusations involving Trump and Russia even as it provides overwhelming and damning evidence of Russia’s efforts to intervene in the 2016 presidential election to help Trump win and the Trump campaign’s eagerness to embrace the Russian intervention.

But the Senate report goes much further than election interference and provides the first detailed examination of the broader and complex network of relationships between Trump, his ever-shifting circle of personal and business associates, and a series of Russian oligarchs and other Russian and Ukrainian figures with ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin. In the process, the report provides badly needed context for the events of 2016 and beyond. Above all, it reveals the true nature of the counterintelligence threat posed by a president willing and eager to accept the help of a foreign adversary to win American elections.

Since its August 18 release, the Senate report — actually the fifth and final volume of the committee’s massive opus on Trump and Russia — has been overshadowed by both the Democratic and Republican national conventions, and as a result, it has received far less attention from the press and the public than it deserves.

But the Senate report is particularly significant now, as the 2020 general election campaign intensifies and Trump and his supporters continue to deny that Russia tried to help him win in 2016 and that Moscow is trying to do so again this year. In recent days, John Ratcliffe, the director of national intelligence, has said that the DNI will stop in-person briefings for Congress about election interference, angering congressional Democratic leaders who charge that Ratcliffe and the Trump administration are trying to keep the public in the dark.

But the Senate report cuts through the political noise with clear and unequivocal language to explain what happened in 2016.

At nearly 1,000 pages, the Senate report is by far the best and most thorough examination of the Trump-Russia story to date, and puts the narrower and more legalistic Mueller Report to shame. Robert Mueller, the former FBI director appointed in 2017 to be special counsel to investigate the Trump-Russia case, kept his focus on gathering evidence for specific criminal prosecutions; the Senate report shows that he missed the forest for the trees.

The Senate report itself is critical of Mueller’s narrow approach and chides him and his team for having failed to grasp the true nature of the national security threat posed by Russia’s intervention in 2016. The report complains that Mueller failed to continue the FBI’s original counterintelligence investigation once the FBI handed off the broader Trump-Russia case. Instead, the special counsel abandoned the counterintelligence portions of the case and focused instead only on elements of the case that could result in criminal prosecutions.

“Over the course of its investigation, the [special counsel] successfully secured numerous criminal indictments and convictions,” the Senate report states. “While criminal prosecutions are a vital tool in upholding our nation’s laws, protecting our democratic system from foreign interference is a broader national security mission that must be appropriately balanced with the pursuit of criminal prosecutions. It is the committee’s view that this balance was not achieved. Russian interference with the U.S. electoral process was inherently a counterintelligence matter and one not well-suited to criminal prosecutions.”

The Senate report is most remarkable for its bipartisan nature. It was produced by a Republican-controlled committee, but the report almost never seems to pull its punches aimed at any of its targets. It is unsparing in its description of Trump and his campaign aides as eager to reach out for Russian help in 2016, but is equally tough in its criticism of the FBI for its missteps in its subsequent investigation of Trump and Russia’s intervention in the election. Along the way, each episode is recounted in exhaustive detail, and the result is that the reader is left with a clear understanding of the relative significance of the different chapters of the Trump-Russia case. That is a relief after years of partisanship and polarization have skewed the public’s understanding of the case.

Lust, Avarice, Opportunism, Incompetence

In fact, the Senate Intelligence Committee’s report is a throwback to an earlier era of congressional investigations in which bipartisanship was the rule, not the exception. The report is so thick with research and evidence that the letters from Republican and Democratic senators on the committee, attached at the end of the report and arguing over the report’s meaning, seem trivial by contrast.

Perhaps the only significance of the attached letter from the Republican senators is the name of one senator who didn’t sign it: Richard Burr of North Carolina, who until recently was the committee’s chair. Burr was forced to step aside in May, after the disclosure that he was under investigation for stock sales he made before the American public knew the extent of the likely economic threat posed by the Covid-19 pandemic. But by that time, the committee’s work on the Trump-Russia case was virtually complete. In hindsight, Burr appears to have played a key role in protecting the committee’s investigation from excessive partisan influence.

The independence of the committee’s investigation is evident in its clear and concise conclusions.

“The committee found that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian effort to hack computer networks and accounts affiliated with the Democratic Party and leak information damaging to Hillary Clinton and her campaign for president,” the report states. “Moscow’s intent was to harm the Clinton campaign, tarnish an expected Clinton presidential administration, help the Trump campaign after Trump became the presumptive Republican nominee, and undermine the U.S. democratic process.”

The GRU, a Russian intelligence service, conducted the hacks and then used a false cyber front to transfer data to WikiLeaks, which then published the Clinton-related documents at key moments in the 2016 campaign, according to the report. The U.S. media obligingly wrote stories based on the documents, without aggressively pursuing evidence that the leaks were the product of a Russian cyberattack.

The report states that “while the GRU and WikiLeaks were releasing hacked documents, the Trump campaign sought to maximize the impact of those materials to aid Trump’s electoral prospects. To do so, the Trump Campaign took actions to obtain advance notice about WikiLeaks releases of Clinton emails; took steps to obtain inside information about the content of releases once WikiLeaks began to publish stolen information; created messaging strategies to promote and share the materials in anticipation of and following their release; and encouraged further theft of information and continued leaks.”

One of the most intriguing sections in the report deals with the relationship between Paul Manafort, the onetime Trump campaign chair, and a Russian intelligence officer. Indeed, the Manafort section of the report is a prime example of how the Senate investigators brought fresh eyes to a well-known episode in the Trump-Russia case and, unlike Mueller, found new information by examining it as a counterintelligence matter.

In March 2016, longtime international lobbyist Paul Manafort joined the Trump campaign and by May was named the campaign’s chair. Manafort offered to work for Trump for free.

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Russia’s President Vladimir Putin (L) talks to Rusal President and Management Board Member Oleg Deripaska at the 2017 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit at Da Nang, Vietnam on Nov. 10, 2017.

But Manafort came to the Trump campaign with a lot of baggage and was facing a desperate financial squeeze. He had spent years working for Oleg Deripaska, a Russian oligarch with close ties to Putin, who had tasked him to conduct influence operations in countries where Deripaska had major business interests. Deripaska also introduced Manafort to Ukrainian oligarchs and eventually Manafort went to work for Ukraine’s pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych until he was ousted from power in 2014 in the wake of Ukraine’s Maidan revolution.

By 2016, Manafort was caught up in a fight with Deripaska over an investment that had gone sour, and he saw his new position with the Trump campaign as a lifeline to help him resolve the situation. “Once on the campaign, Manafort quickly sought to leverage his position to resolve his multi-million dollar foreign disputes and obtain new work in Ukraine and elsewhere,” the Senate report concluded.

One of Manafort’s closest aides during his time in Ukraine was Konstantin Kilimnik, who the Senate report identifies as a Russian intelligence officer. Kilimnik also served as Manafort’s liaison with Deripaska.

While he was working for Trump during the 2016 campaign, Manafort stayed in contact with Kilimnik and gave him the Trump campaign’s internal polling data, which showed that the key to defeating Clinton was to drive up negative attitudes about her among voters.

The Mueller report found that Manafort had shared Trump polling data with Kilimnik, but didn’t examine why he had done so. The Senate report says that the intelligence committee “obtained some information suggesting Kilimnik may have been connected to the GRU’s hack and leak operation targeting the 2016 election.” The report adds that “this information suggests that a channel for coordination on the GRU hack operation may have existed through Kilimnik.”

The report adds that in interviews with Mueller’s prosecution team, “Manafort lied consistently about one issue in particular: his interactions with Kilimnik.” Manafort decided to “face more severe criminal penalties rather than provide complete answers about his interactions with Kilimnik.” The Manafort-Kilimnik relationship, the Senate report concludes, represents “the single most direct tie between senior Trump campaign officials and the Russian intelligence services.”

The Senate report is filled with such rich details, shedding new light on the wide cast of characters surrounding both Trump and Putin, and the end result is an engrossing tale of modern intelligence — and of lust, avarice, squalid opportunism, and incompetence — worthy of John le Carré. With its depth of research, layered with an understanding of a complex series of personal networks in both the United States and Russia, the Senate report has done what none of the previous investigations have achieved. It has brought the Trump-Russia story to life.
 

Dr. Truth

GOD to all Women
BGOL Investor
Amerikkka has been fucking up elections around the world . Assasinating candidates, fixing polls. We know this but it doesn’t make what Russia is doing right either.
 

MCP

International
International Member
Amerikkka has been fucking up elections around the world . Assasinating candidates, fixing polls. We know this but it doesn’t make what Russia is doing right either.

So who exactly are the good guys?
 
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