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Second Round Roundball
Posted by Bill Russell on May 8, 2007, 10:23 a.m. ET
Playoff Favorites vs. Underdogs
With many people (except me) calling last week’s win by Golden State over Dallas one of the greatest upsets of all-time, I thought we should take a look at the whole favorite vs. underdog dynamic. When you talk about the playoffs, you have to talk about how these two teams match up against each other. Nothing else is relevant. When I was playing, there were a lot of times where people said we were underdogs, but we just couldn’t understand what they were talking about. There are people that really don’t know that much about the game.
Spreading Some Knowledge
For example, I worked for CBS and when Magic was a rookie in 1980, the Lakers were up 3-2 going to Philadelphia for the sixth game. Kareem had suffered a sprained ankle in Game 5 and couldn’t make the trip. So the Lakers are playing the Sixers without Kareem. In the production meeting, Brent Musburger kept saying, “We’re going to start pumping the next game no later than the first quarter and if we slip up and forget, then early in the second quarter.” And he kept saying it. So I said finally, “Why do you keep saying we have to keep pumping the next game?” So he says, “Well, the Lakers won’t be able to compete. They’ll be 25 points behind at halftime.” And I said, “The Lakers are going to win this game.” He says to me, “You don’t know what you’re talking about.” I replied, “Yes I do know what I am talking about. I am going to do something that I usually dismiss, but this time, I am going to tell you why the Lakers are going to win.”
I said, “During the playoffs, there are certain things that determine the winner. One of the things is matchups. If you take Norm Nixon and Michael Cooper against Maurice Cheeks and Andrew Toney, that’s a wash. The way Jamaal Wilkes has been playing, he and the Doc (Dr. J) will offset each other. That’s a wash. Jim Chones is a weak link, but he won’t be overshadowed too much by the guy who is guarding him, either Darryl Dawkins or Caldwell Jones. The next guy is totally screwed. He has to try to guard Magic. Magic is big and strong and can guard him, but he is nowhere near the athlete to guard Magic.
“This is the sixth game in a row that the Lakers have played this Philadelphia team, but it will be the first time that Philadelphia had played this Laker team. The difference between Magic and Kareem is not the talent, because Kareem is extraordinarily talented. The difference is the way they play the position. With Kareem you always know where to find him. He is always on the blocks. Magic, he’ll be all over the place. He will be out serving popcorn and the guy will not be able to keep up with him. Period. So they will have to make massive adjustments and by the time they get fully adjusted, it will be training season for next year. They can’t keep up with this team on just foot speed alone.” So Brent says, “Well I don’t think that is so.”
By the middle of the fourth quarter he says to me, “You knew this was going to happen, didn’t you?”
I said, “Yeah, I told you that.”
You Never Know Who Will Step Up
I know probably as much as anybody on the planet about playoff basketball. The only things that aren’t predictable are how individual players – one through 10, not just one through five or the first three – will react to playoff competition. Everybody tightens up a little bit. Sometimes when a guy tightens up, it makes him a better player, but sometimes it makes him a lesser player. This goes through all the guys that get out there on the floor. It might be the ninth or tenth man. Somebody might get hurt or get in foul trouble and they have to play a guy that is normally not part of the rotation. So how will those guys react? One thing I have to emphasize, it is a complete team game. Magic had 42 points – I don’t know who was trying to guard him that game because you never saw them together – and everyone talks about that, but Jamaal Wilkes got 37 and a guy named Brad Holland came off the bench and scored 10 points. Ninety percent of the people that know anything about that game don’t even know that he played. So I never engage in picking favorites.
Making Adjustments
What I try to do sometimes when I watch the game is see what kind of adjustments the losing team has to make. But like I told one of the coaches this year about adjustments, you have to make adjustments that your team can make. You can’t just say, well we have to do a better job on the boards or we have to do a better job passing the ball. That is null and void unless your team can do those things. When you make adjustments, you have to make adjustments that your team can do.
Tim Duncan – The Ultimate Difference Maker
Tim Duncan is probably the key big guy still in the playoffs. His numbers don’t reflect his value to those guys. Amare Stoudemire is having a great season and he is a hard worker, but where Stoudemire can be the difference in a close game, Tim Duncan can be the difference in a whole game. The way Duncan plays determines how the game is played in terms of tempo and what types of shots the others guys get. The defense has to double team him and he is an excellent player passing from the low post. That is one of his underappreciated skills. He looks cool, but there is nobody that works any harder than he does or gets beat up as much as he does.
It's All About Execution
All year everyone was talking about Dallas and Phoenix in terms of best record, but that is regular season. San Antonio probably has as good a record as anybody since the All-Star break. Around this time of year you hear the thing of who wants it the most? That is garbage. The team that loses wants it just as much as the team that wins. It is the team that executes the best in playing the way they want to play. It is a tug of war that as much mentally as physically determines how the game is going to be played. What is the pace of the game? The winning team will find its comfort zone for the game. It is a very, very thin line between the two. For example, San Antonio with Parker and Ginobili, they might be able to run with Phoenix, but that would be a mistake because then they are playing the way Phoenix wants to play. If that is the way they want to play, they are really great at that. If they say we are going to let you play the way you want to play and we can change our game and beat you at that, well that doesn’t make sense.
Second Round Roundball
Posted by Bill Russell on May 8, 2007, 10:23 a.m. ET
Playoff Favorites vs. Underdogs
With many people (except me) calling last week’s win by Golden State over Dallas one of the greatest upsets of all-time, I thought we should take a look at the whole favorite vs. underdog dynamic. When you talk about the playoffs, you have to talk about how these two teams match up against each other. Nothing else is relevant. When I was playing, there were a lot of times where people said we were underdogs, but we just couldn’t understand what they were talking about. There are people that really don’t know that much about the game.
Spreading Some Knowledge
For example, I worked for CBS and when Magic was a rookie in 1980, the Lakers were up 3-2 going to Philadelphia for the sixth game. Kareem had suffered a sprained ankle in Game 5 and couldn’t make the trip. So the Lakers are playing the Sixers without Kareem. In the production meeting, Brent Musburger kept saying, “We’re going to start pumping the next game no later than the first quarter and if we slip up and forget, then early in the second quarter.” And he kept saying it. So I said finally, “Why do you keep saying we have to keep pumping the next game?” So he says, “Well, the Lakers won’t be able to compete. They’ll be 25 points behind at halftime.” And I said, “The Lakers are going to win this game.” He says to me, “You don’t know what you’re talking about.” I replied, “Yes I do know what I am talking about. I am going to do something that I usually dismiss, but this time, I am going to tell you why the Lakers are going to win.”
I said, “During the playoffs, there are certain things that determine the winner. One of the things is matchups. If you take Norm Nixon and Michael Cooper against Maurice Cheeks and Andrew Toney, that’s a wash. The way Jamaal Wilkes has been playing, he and the Doc (Dr. J) will offset each other. That’s a wash. Jim Chones is a weak link, but he won’t be overshadowed too much by the guy who is guarding him, either Darryl Dawkins or Caldwell Jones. The next guy is totally screwed. He has to try to guard Magic. Magic is big and strong and can guard him, but he is nowhere near the athlete to guard Magic.
“This is the sixth game in a row that the Lakers have played this Philadelphia team, but it will be the first time that Philadelphia had played this Laker team. The difference between Magic and Kareem is not the talent, because Kareem is extraordinarily talented. The difference is the way they play the position. With Kareem you always know where to find him. He is always on the blocks. Magic, he’ll be all over the place. He will be out serving popcorn and the guy will not be able to keep up with him. Period. So they will have to make massive adjustments and by the time they get fully adjusted, it will be training season for next year. They can’t keep up with this team on just foot speed alone.” So Brent says, “Well I don’t think that is so.”
By the middle of the fourth quarter he says to me, “You knew this was going to happen, didn’t you?”
I said, “Yeah, I told you that.”
You Never Know Who Will Step Up
I know probably as much as anybody on the planet about playoff basketball. The only things that aren’t predictable are how individual players – one through 10, not just one through five or the first three – will react to playoff competition. Everybody tightens up a little bit. Sometimes when a guy tightens up, it makes him a better player, but sometimes it makes him a lesser player. This goes through all the guys that get out there on the floor. It might be the ninth or tenth man. Somebody might get hurt or get in foul trouble and they have to play a guy that is normally not part of the rotation. So how will those guys react? One thing I have to emphasize, it is a complete team game. Magic had 42 points – I don’t know who was trying to guard him that game because you never saw them together – and everyone talks about that, but Jamaal Wilkes got 37 and a guy named Brad Holland came off the bench and scored 10 points. Ninety percent of the people that know anything about that game don’t even know that he played. So I never engage in picking favorites.
Making Adjustments
What I try to do sometimes when I watch the game is see what kind of adjustments the losing team has to make. But like I told one of the coaches this year about adjustments, you have to make adjustments that your team can make. You can’t just say, well we have to do a better job on the boards or we have to do a better job passing the ball. That is null and void unless your team can do those things. When you make adjustments, you have to make adjustments that your team can do.
Tim Duncan – The Ultimate Difference Maker
Tim Duncan is probably the key big guy still in the playoffs. His numbers don’t reflect his value to those guys. Amare Stoudemire is having a great season and he is a hard worker, but where Stoudemire can be the difference in a close game, Tim Duncan can be the difference in a whole game. The way Duncan plays determines how the game is played in terms of tempo and what types of shots the others guys get. The defense has to double team him and he is an excellent player passing from the low post. That is one of his underappreciated skills. He looks cool, but there is nobody that works any harder than he does or gets beat up as much as he does.
It's All About Execution
All year everyone was talking about Dallas and Phoenix in terms of best record, but that is regular season. San Antonio probably has as good a record as anybody since the All-Star break. Around this time of year you hear the thing of who wants it the most? That is garbage. The team that loses wants it just as much as the team that wins. It is the team that executes the best in playing the way they want to play. It is a tug of war that as much mentally as physically determines how the game is going to be played. What is the pace of the game? The winning team will find its comfort zone for the game. It is a very, very thin line between the two. For example, San Antonio with Parker and Ginobili, they might be able to run with Phoenix, but that would be a mistake because then they are playing the way Phoenix wants to play. If that is the way they want to play, they are really great at that. If they say we are going to let you play the way you want to play and we can change our game and beat you at that, well that doesn’t make sense.
