Peak Oil and Civil Rights

[SPECTRE1]

Part 1 of 2 of this series, we explore the impact of Peak Oil on Civil Rights. The NAACP convention will be taking place in Houston-a city with strong economic ties with oil, time to explore the past.

M. King Hubbert created and first used the models behind peak oil in 1956 to accurately predict that United States oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970. His logistic model, now called Hubbert peak theory, and its variants have described with reasonable accuracy the peak and decline of production from oil wells, fields, regions, and countries,[8] and has also proved useful in other limited-resource production-domains. According to the Hubbert model, the production rate of a limited resource will follow a roughly symmetrical logistic distribution curve (sometimes incorrectly compared to a bell-shaped curve) based on the limits of exploitability and market pressures

In 1956, Hubbard proposed the ‘Peak Oil’ theory that the production of oil would reach a peak in the United States between 1965-1970 and decline each year. The United States had a demand for oil of 8 million barrels of oil a day and produced 10 million with the difference that was exported to the World. The U.S. didn’t need any country for anything, and could openly discriminate against all minorities groups without facing any repercussions. Boy, have times changed dramatically.

This oil that was produced domestically and exported was responsible for the U.S.economic boom. Imagine if the U.S. could produce 19 million barrel of oil a day in 2012, there would be 700 billion dollars that would be circulating in the economy with virtually no unemployment. Today there is a huge gap of 12 million barrel of oil that need to be filled through imports mainly from Africa countries such as Nigeria, Angola, Iraq, and Iran, plus South America.

I believe that Peak Oil had been floating around in the government causing much panic, a valuable commodity is only available in countries that have minorities in U.S. that are openly discriminated against in all kinds of ways. Jim Crow meant that these people had to sit in the back of the bus, faced job discrimination, denied voting, unable to obtain hospitality, or buy their food from the back of the store like an animal. Now, the U.S. had to beg these countries to obtain oil contracts or need these countries to export this valuable commodity to keep its economy afloat. The members of the Saudi Royal family travel to the United States and Texas, could you imagine them being told, "We don't serve your kind" or being denied hospitality?

In the early to late sixties the Voting Rights Act of 1965 and Civil Rights Act 1964,1968 was passed during this Peak Oil window of 1965-1970 to end segregation and ensuring voting access to minorities by a Texan, somebody quite familiar with the oil industry.

How do you know it was Peak Oil?

These laws weren’t passed in the 1880, 1890, 1900, 1910, 1920, 1930, 1940, 1950 by the Democrats or Republicans. In South Africa, the whites didn't end Apartheid until the 90's, that came about only as a result of economic sanctions. Without the economic sanctions, there would still be Apartheid in South Africa. I believe without the pressures of Peak Oil, there would still be Jim Crow and segregation today!

Country % of Total
Canada* 18.6%
Saudi Arabia 11.7%
Mexico 10.9%
Venezuela 10.9%
Nigeria 9.0%
Algeria 5.9%
Angola 4.9%
Iraq 3.8%
Russia 3.4%
Virgin Islands* 2.8%

*The Oil Sands that is very energy intensive in Canada was not a viable source of oil 40 years ago because of technology. The actual percentages would be much higher back than shown above. As you can see, the countries and respective minority groups that would be subject to Jim Crow provide an astounding amount of oil to the U.S. Imagine a Saudi Prince or Angolan traveling to the South being denied hospitality or food. Or couldn’t get a job because of their ethnicity…

The United States might have had a South Africa style forced termination of its Apartheid system to appear tolerant and open to these oil rich countries in Africa and South America to ensure access to oil.

 

[QueEx]

C, how about including a link to the source.

Thanks.

 

[SPECTRE1]

The Source is Wikipedia and a general analysis by me, I was looking at Peak Oil being predicted between 1965-1970 and all the Civil Rights Laws that were passed during this time period. The government had to know about it and took measures to ensure an adequate oil supply.

Was it due to people wanting to do the right thing such as LBJ, MLK, or Peak Oil?

Why didn't the government push these laws sooner such as the 1930 to be integrated?

 

[QueEx]

Two things:

It would be good to place what others say "in quotations" so that we don't confuse some one else's words with yours; and, if you include the link where you got the "other" information from, it would be helpful to those who might want to read the originating article.

Curious: how do you draw a correlation between the Peak Oil predictions and the adoption of the Civil Rights Act ???

`

 

[SPECTRE1]

Two things:

It would be good to place what others say "in quotations" so that we don't confuse some one else's words with yours; and, if you include the link where you got the "other" information from, it would be helpful to those who might want to read the originating article.

Curious: how do you draw a correlation between the Peak Oil predictions and the adoption of the Civil Rights Act ???

`

I looked at the timing and the lack of action by the U.S. to do anything in past. I also look at South Africa Apartheid that only ended because of sanctions.

I also put myself in LBJ/U.S. shoes, this Hubbard guy is predicting this valuable resource will have to be imported or is being imported. The only source is countries in Africa and South America, minority groups in your country that you are treating like crap with Jim Crow.

His prediction has been spot on and oil production in the U.S. has declined and demand has increased. What would you do?

I would pass laws and appear racially tolerant. Having Jim Crow and trying to get oil contracts wouldn't work, they would give it to BP. Having the oil contract is important because it ensures your supply

 

[QueEx]

Interesting, but I'm not quite seeing the correlation -- wary of the fallacy of cause and effect, on the one hand, and on the other hand because I believe the efforts of the many dedicated participants in the Civil Rights Movement were far more instrumental in the enactment of the Civil Rights Act than any worries about Peak Oil. Regardless of the predictions, oil and gasoline were pretty cheap and seemingly in abundance prior to the Arab Oil Embargo.

 

[SPECTRE1]

AAAS Convention

In its first 100 years, the American oil industry found and burned 50-60 billion barrels of oil within the US borders (excluding Alaska and Hawaii). It was rather universally agreed, circa 1950, that the 150-200 billion barrels was the total amount of recoverable crude in the US. Thus the widely held view was that there was enough oil to last several generations. But Hubbert's curves gave a much different picture. They indicated that American production would peak quickly, within a generation, and decline rapidly.

Hubbert said: "I first worked this out in the middle 1930s, but the first time I really wrote it down was for the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) convention in 1948, Hubbert says. Hubbert was swamped with mail, universally favorable? after the 1948 speech was printed a year later. But it was hardly noticed by the petroleum industry even though it was little different from the later, 1956 version which caused an uproar. Hubbert could be more specific in his 1956 analysis because of additional data and he predicted US crude production would peak in 10-15 years. This conclusion was almost universally considered outrageous at the time."

Did Peak oil lead to Brown v Board in 1954, school desegregation ruling? Hubbert ideas had been floating around for 6 years, that I am sure the government picked up on.

 

[SPECTRE1]

Good presentation, he explains that our military spending is related to ensuring oil makes it to the market. All of the air craft carriers are sitting in the Middle East.



Democrats and Republicans sat on doing anything for decades until Peak Oil crept up.

Nelson Mandela had marches and gave speeches, that did nothing until economic sanction got put on South Africa.

 

[SPECTRE1]

1962: The National Academy Report

US President John Kennedy asked the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) to evaluate the country's natural resources. Hubbert authored the section of NAS report on energy resources in which he abandoned the traditional method of estimating reserves - analyzing geologic formations - because it yielded a wide variety of estimates, most of which obviously had to be grossly wrong.

Hubbert based the estimates for his report on discoveries vs. the rate of exploration. His figure was 170 billion barrels, very close to the figures which became widely accepted a decade later. In this report Hubbert also dealt with natural gas supplies and he forecast they would peak in the mid 1970s. The government did what it often does in controversial matters, nothing. Since these were predictions about the fairly near future, we just sat around and waited to see what would happen.

Because his estimates were barely one-third of the Geologic Survey's latest estimate, his work was almost completely excluded from the report's executive summary, often the only section of such voluminous reports read by officials. "The USGS estimate included a prediction of 200 billion barrels plus 300 billion barrels that could be recovered through technological and economic advances. I was trying to the tell the President as plainly as I knew, and beyond him to tell the public that we had better start getting ready for this thing (the energy shortage) now", Hubbert said. "But the influence of this report was as close to zero as possible."

Anytime you say that you are running out of Energy (Oil), it is going to be very influential...

http://www.mkinghubbert.com/

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...QWsGXZVKLsPfcqJ1w&sig2=w0ekortER6ewnKUx2Htx9g

 

[Cruise]

I don't believe Civil Rights had anything to do with Peak Oil.

The reason for Civil Rights was because black people were absolutely fed-up with the blatant racism they had to endure from whites, despite the expansive and abundant resources that were available.

Malcolm X was the counterpoint to MLK. They both arose because black people were getting angry and about to hit the streets and burn shit to the ground.

The Civil Rights Act was an attempt to defuse that anger. And, it failed! The country still burned in the 60s.

Peak Oil is an entirely different issue. It will cause the cities to burn this decade, but was a non-issue in the 1960s.

We are now living under the Carter doctrine...

(January 23, 1980)

The region which is now threatened by Soviet troops in Afghanistan is of great strategic importance: It contains more than two-thirds of the world's exportable oil. The Soviet effort to dominate Afghanistan has brought Soviet military forces to within 300 miles of the Indian Ocean and close to the Straits of Hormuz, a waterway through which most of the world's oil must flow. The Soviet Union is now attempting to consolidate a strategic position, therefore, that poses a grave threat to the free movement of Middle East oil.

This situation demands careful thought, steady nerves, and resolute action, not only for this year but for many years to come. It demands collective efforts to meet this new threat to security in the Persian Gulf and in Southwest Asia. It demands the participation of all those who rely on oil from the Middle East and who are concerned with global peace and stability. And it demands consultation and close cooperation with countries in the area which might be threatened.

Meeting this challenge will take national will, diplomatic and political wisdom, economic sacrifice, and, of course, military capability. We must call on the best that is in us to preserve the security of this crucial region.

Let our position be absolutely clear: An attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force.

This set the stage for the rise of the neocon Presidents (Bush, Obama, Romney).

 

[SPECTRE1]

<iframe width="853" height="480" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/2htGadwrhcI" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

If you want to see what it is like without oil in the US.

This is what President Kennedy and LBJ were facing. They waited until the last second hoping things would change with an oil discovery or technology, than start cursing, and said ok you can live in my neighborhoods, vote in elections without literacy tests, and not face discrimination on the job.



The Presidents tried to hide what they were doing by changing the numbers on the 1962 National Academy Report to make it look not obvious from M.Hubbert predictions. If there was a report going out saying there was energy shortages and than all of this Civil Rights legislation gets passed afterward, it would seem obvious.

I am aware that I am the only person on this Forum who believes that LBJ was blackmailed into passing the 1965 Civil Rights Act. I argue this for the following reasons:

LBJ long record of public hostility to civil rights. His first speech in the Senate was an attack on Harry Truman’s proposed civil rights legislation that would have given black Americans protection against lynching and discrimination in employment. It would also have made it easier for them to vote. In the speech Johnson argued that Truman’s proposals were a call “for depriving one minority (white people living in the Deep South) of its rights in order to extend rights to other minorities”.

Liberals in the Senate became angry with Johnson in 1957 over Eisenhower’s Civil Rights Bill. They first of all complained about the weakness of the original bill. Then they turned on Johnson when he assigned the bill to the Judiciary Committee. This was under the chairmanship of James Eastland, the most extreme racist in the Senate. As one historian pointed out, this resulted in the bill “being buried” by Eastland. (2) Joseph Rauh commented that it was now abundantly clear that Johnson was “running the Democratic party for the benefit of the Southern conservative viewpoint.” (3) This is why the civil rights activists were so upset when LBJ was selected as JFK's running mate.

The fact that LBJ was a racist is not only shown by his political record. It is also supported by information from his friends who claim he was a nasty racist in private (apparently he called his black servants “******s” in front of people).

The United States everyday has to go out and compete to win oil contracts to supply oil from African countries all the time. The United States is also subject to the pricing whims of these countries. We can pay for $1 gas or $5, it is their decision. Appearing intolerant and having racists laws that would apply to the citizens of their country would not be a smart move.

 

[SPECTRE1]

BUMP

MLK gets his Nobel in 1964 even though he was going at it for over 10 years and all these Civil Rights laws get passed in the late 60's.

The United States is another South Africa, banning apartheid only after facing sanctions or appearing tolerant to win oil contracts. Blacks saw all these laws being passed and thought it was because the Democrats were Civil Rights fighters.

 

[Greed]

To the OP, I don't think the connection works in reality because the non-white countries that controlled the oil didn't have populations that sympathized with the victims of Jim Crow laws. And they still don't. Neither do their current emigrants.

 

[SPECTRE1]

To the OP, I don't think the connection works in reality because the non-white countries that controlled the oil didn't have populations that sympathized with the victims of Jim Crow laws. And they still don't. Neither do their current emigrants.

They have people that travel here or live here for business such as the Saudi Royal family in Texas, imagine them being called 'boy' and denied hospitality at a hotel in the South. The United States wants to project an image of being open, tolerant, and diverse when they travel here.

These laws that were passed to keep blacks down in the South, ended up affecting people traveling here from these oil rich countries.

The president of Mexico which supply 10% of imported oil addressed Congress after the immigration laws were passed in Arizona. The law were severely limited and struck down in court shortly after.

The huge military buildup is to ensure oil gets to the market, that is why the United States polices the world.

 

[SPECTRE1]

Bump

My conspiracy theory regarding Civil Rights legislation such as the Voting Rights Act that was limited by the Supreme Court. I just wish it was the 1951 Voting Rights Act or 1952 Civil Rights Act, than it would not look so funny.

Should we be celebrating M King Hubbert Day or Martin L King Day on January 16?

 

[SPECTRE1]

It wasn't Martin L King that got the Voting Rights Act of 1965, Civil Rights Act of 1968 passed, it was M King Hubbert....

1962: I was trying to the tell the President as plainly as I knew, and beyond him to tell the public that we had better start getting ready for this thing (the energy shortage) now", Hubbert said.

1963: MLK - "I have a Dream Speech"


When are they going to declassify documents confirming my suspicions....

 

[SPECTRE1]

Bumping this thread after seeing OPEC deciding production levels and prices. OPEC was started in 1960, which may have impacted Civil Rights laws. Nigeria and other countries gained their independence from colonial powers.

 

[QueEx]

When are they going to declassify documents confirming my suspicions....

Reading the posts in this thread, all of my suspicions have been confirmed, already.

 

[SPECTRE1]

A good chart about the source of our oil. the U.S. used to be more dependent on OPEC until Canada ramped up production.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_mbbl_m.htm

Before fools get all sentimental on MLK tomorrow. just remember the real reason for all this progress. The U.S. is another South Africa that only reformed under economic pressure. The pageantry and staging of MLK, it looks like a Michael Bay film. 11 aircraft carriers 'protecting' oil shipments. Especially when you have a Republican (President Reagan) enacting this holiday, it should raise red flags.

OPEC can make us pay $5 a gallon gasoline or they can tank the price temporarily causing massive loan losses for the banks.

Why investment capital from the banks that was used to produce shale oil did not go towards battery factories, mass transit, and renewable energy? Another example of stupidity that permeates U.S. culture. that ends up affecting me.