<font size="5"><center>Hamas wakes up to grim reality</font size></center>
By Annette Young
In Jerusalem
Sun 17 Jun 2007
"GAZA is becoming the Mogadishu of the Mediterranean," said one Palestinian official who refused to be named. "People thrown off the rooftops of 10-storey buildings, Palestinians shooting other Palestinians at point blank, others shot in front of their families. So Hamas is in control but do they really think people won't forget what has happened given our culture of pay-back and revenge?"
Yesterday, as locals awoke to the reality of a Hamas-controlled Gaza, people were beginning to count the cost of last week's fighting. Some shops began opening, university students returned to classes and people nervously left their homes for the first time in five days.
With Israel having closed the Erez and Karni border crossings, and Egypt having done the same with the Rafah crossing, Gaza is effectively sealed off from the rest of the world, with its 1.5 million residents having no choice in the past week but to stay in their homes as gun battles raged on the streets outside.
"I still haven't yet been outside my building in the last week. None of my family has," said Professor Naji Shurab, a lecturer in political science at Al Azhar University. "All we did is sit in front of the television trying to work out what was going on as we heard gunfire outside.
"While Hamas has the ability to keep the gangs in control, that is not the problem. It's whether they will be able to ensure the hospitals have enough supplies, people have food and that salaries are being paid.
"And are they going to talk to the Israelis about reopening the border crossings to get aid in and also ensure that water and electricity is still supplied to Gaza?"
Yesterday, Hamas officials called on Palestinians to bring an end to the looting of Fatah military bases and homes belonging to Fatah officials.
In a scene which one bystander likened to looting in Baghdad after the fall of Saddam Hussein, hundreds of people swarmed through the unoccupied villa of former Fatah security chief, Mohammed Dahlan (now based in the West Bank), after his neighbourhood fell to Hamas, stripping everything, including windows, doors and flower pots.
"The battle is over. Hamas is in control of the streets but the main issue for Palestinians is to push both sides to understand that the only way to achieve victory is through dialogue and not with violence," said Ahmad Shawa, the Gaza co-ordinator for the Palestinian NGO Network. "But with the border crossings closed - which are our lifeline - we are facing a shortage of food and medicine and the situation is becoming more critical by the day."
A Victory for the Islamist Movement
It was a resounding military achievement for the Islamist movement which, although numerically smaller in number than Fatah forces, overturned its opponents within a matter of days. Awaiting word from President Mahmoud Abbas whether to fire back, Fatah soldiers, despite support from the United States, crumbled in the face of the determined Hamas fighters who, having taken over key Fatah bases such as the Preventative Security Forces headquarters, would kneel down, with their foreheads touching the ground, and pray.
As Khaled Abu Toameh, the Palestinian Affairs editor for the Jerusalem Post, wrote: "Fatah lost the battle for the Gaza Strip because it lost the confidence and support of many Palestinians a long time ago... The decline of Fatah actually began with the day Yasser Arafat died in November 2004."
Despite declaring his determination to bring an end to corruption and lawlessness when he came president in January 2005, Abbas did anything but. Instead, Toameh argues, the Palestinian president surrounded himself with symbols of corruption and former Arafat cronies, promoted notorious warlords and, for the first time, the number of Palestinians killed in internal fighting was higher than those killed by Israel.
It's no surprise, says Toameh, that more and more Palestinians, especially those living in poverty-stricken Gaza, began to believe "Islam is the solution" and turned to Hamas.
Following their victory in the January 2006 elections, Hamas viewed the subsequent international aid boycott as part of a Western conspiracy to remove it from power.
When the United States gave nearly £30m to train the Fatah-affiliated presidential guard, Hamas became furious since it had been battling with Fatah to gain control of its bloated security forces after its election victory.
U.S. Concerned - Al Qaeda to Gaza?
The Hamas victory in Gaza is a major concern for Washington as it also watches al-Qaeda-inspired Fatah al-Islam fighters battle Lebanese troops in Nahr al-Barad refugee camp near Tripoli for the fourth week in a row.
One leading expert has raised the prospect of the West having to contend with militants inspired or even linked to bin Laden having the ascendency in Gaza.
Jonathan Alterman, of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said: "One of the things we haven't seen yet in the Palestinian community is the rise of al-Qaeda or Qaeda-like groups. We could well have that in Gaza, not in three years' time, but in one year's time."
Yossi Mekelburg, a Middle East analyst at the Chatham House think-tank in London, said: "We said that Arafat was not a partner and we got Hamas. We said that Hamas is not a partner and we might get al-Qaeda - we already see signs of this."
Both events are part of a worrying global trend whereby groups signing on to the global Jihad movement are seizing power - or attempting to - said Dr Boaz Ganor, the executive director of the International Policy Institute for Counter Terrorism, based in Israel.
In the past, Hamas has been careful to distance itself from al-Qaeda but, after signing the Mecca agreement to join Fatah in an unity government last February, it came under fierce criticism from al-Qaeda supporters who claimed Hamas was departing from its Islamist principles by accepting such an agreement.
"Within weeks, we saw Hamas officials starting to declare not only that they wanted to 'free Palestine', but also to promote global Jihad with its ultimate aim of establishing a worldwide Islamic republic ruled by Sharia law," Ganor said.
The Iranian Connection
While Syria has played a major role in offering support to Hamas, it is Iran - with its supply of weapons and offers of training to Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups in Gaza and the West Bank - that is the mastermind behind the military rise of these groups. "Just like Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, Israel will now have Iran-by-proxy ruling Gaza," said Ganor.
"Yes, the global Jihad movement may be Sunni-based and Iran is a Shia regime but what people need to realise is that there is far more in common between those two elements than people think.
"We are witnessing a third world war between global Jihadists and those against them. It's not just a case of Muslim versus the infidel but Islamic extremists against those who don't accept their view, including moderate Muslims."
For Israel, the key issue will be the sealing off of tunnels dug underneath the Gaza-Egyptian border which have been used to smuggle weapons including longer-range rockets.
Israel is looking towards Egypt to take pro-active measures and seal off the tunnels. The Israelis fear that the crudely made Qassams, which have a limited range, are being replaced with much longer-range rockets whose reach could extend well into Israel.
International Solution?
But hopes for an international force based along the Gaza-Egypt border were dashed late last week when the Organisation of Islamic Conference, the world's biggest grouping of Islamic nations, opposed the idea.
"What is needed is not external forces. It needs a better understanding between internal forces," said the OIC secretary-general Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu. "I do think that there is a need for a strong leadership on behalf of all political leaders and the situation cannot be allowed to further deteriorate."
Hamas immediately rejected the idea. "The movement would regard those forces as occupation forces no different to the Israeli occupation, regardless of their nationality," Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri said.
But an international force will be on the agenda for Tuesday's meeting between Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and US President George Bush as the two leaders discuss how to ensure violence does not spill over to the West Bank.
In order to bolster a weakened Abbas, Washington will put pressure on Israel to release tax revenues that have been frozen since Hamas came to power in March last year and to begin making serious concessions in the West Bank, including the removal of road blocks and lifting of restrictions. Israel last night said would allow humanitarian aid into the area.
Fatah Promises Reprisals
Back on the West Bank, Fatah militants torched Hamas offices and warned of more reprisals if comrades were harmed in Gaza.
Now the Palestinian territories and its four million residents are well and truly divided into two distinct regions which are separated by 30 miles of Israel. Palestinians are now referring to it as a three-state solution.
And in Gaza, Hamas will need to deal with the reality of governing an area where some 65% of people live below the poverty line. Its economy, already shattered by the last intifada, has been devastated by the international aid boycott which came into effect after Hamas, which still refuses to renounce violence or to recognise Israel's right to exist, came to power in early 2006.
With the rise in kidnappings of foreigners along with worsening violence, most international aid organisations no longer operate in Gaza, which also gets its water and electricity from Israel and Egypt.
Palestinians in Gaza say they are facing shortages of basic food and medical supplies.
"Hamas will find it difficult to translate their military victory into a political achievement given the way they imposed their power on to Gaza," said Mouin Rabbani, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group.
http://news.scotsman.com/international.cfm?id=946642007
By Annette Young
In Jerusalem
Sun 17 Jun 2007
"GAZA is becoming the Mogadishu of the Mediterranean," said one Palestinian official who refused to be named. "People thrown off the rooftops of 10-storey buildings, Palestinians shooting other Palestinians at point blank, others shot in front of their families. So Hamas is in control but do they really think people won't forget what has happened given our culture of pay-back and revenge?"
Yesterday, as locals awoke to the reality of a Hamas-controlled Gaza, people were beginning to count the cost of last week's fighting. Some shops began opening, university students returned to classes and people nervously left their homes for the first time in five days.
With Israel having closed the Erez and Karni border crossings, and Egypt having done the same with the Rafah crossing, Gaza is effectively sealed off from the rest of the world, with its 1.5 million residents having no choice in the past week but to stay in their homes as gun battles raged on the streets outside.
"I still haven't yet been outside my building in the last week. None of my family has," said Professor Naji Shurab, a lecturer in political science at Al Azhar University. "All we did is sit in front of the television trying to work out what was going on as we heard gunfire outside.
"While Hamas has the ability to keep the gangs in control, that is not the problem. It's whether they will be able to ensure the hospitals have enough supplies, people have food and that salaries are being paid.
"And are they going to talk to the Israelis about reopening the border crossings to get aid in and also ensure that water and electricity is still supplied to Gaza?"
Yesterday, Hamas officials called on Palestinians to bring an end to the looting of Fatah military bases and homes belonging to Fatah officials.
In a scene which one bystander likened to looting in Baghdad after the fall of Saddam Hussein, hundreds of people swarmed through the unoccupied villa of former Fatah security chief, Mohammed Dahlan (now based in the West Bank), after his neighbourhood fell to Hamas, stripping everything, including windows, doors and flower pots.
"The battle is over. Hamas is in control of the streets but the main issue for Palestinians is to push both sides to understand that the only way to achieve victory is through dialogue and not with violence," said Ahmad Shawa, the Gaza co-ordinator for the Palestinian NGO Network. "But with the border crossings closed - which are our lifeline - we are facing a shortage of food and medicine and the situation is becoming more critical by the day."
A Victory for the Islamist Movement
It was a resounding military achievement for the Islamist movement which, although numerically smaller in number than Fatah forces, overturned its opponents within a matter of days. Awaiting word from President Mahmoud Abbas whether to fire back, Fatah soldiers, despite support from the United States, crumbled in the face of the determined Hamas fighters who, having taken over key Fatah bases such as the Preventative Security Forces headquarters, would kneel down, with their foreheads touching the ground, and pray.
As Khaled Abu Toameh, the Palestinian Affairs editor for the Jerusalem Post, wrote: "Fatah lost the battle for the Gaza Strip because it lost the confidence and support of many Palestinians a long time ago... The decline of Fatah actually began with the day Yasser Arafat died in November 2004."
Despite declaring his determination to bring an end to corruption and lawlessness when he came president in January 2005, Abbas did anything but. Instead, Toameh argues, the Palestinian president surrounded himself with symbols of corruption and former Arafat cronies, promoted notorious warlords and, for the first time, the number of Palestinians killed in internal fighting was higher than those killed by Israel.
It's no surprise, says Toameh, that more and more Palestinians, especially those living in poverty-stricken Gaza, began to believe "Islam is the solution" and turned to Hamas.
Following their victory in the January 2006 elections, Hamas viewed the subsequent international aid boycott as part of a Western conspiracy to remove it from power.
When the United States gave nearly £30m to train the Fatah-affiliated presidential guard, Hamas became furious since it had been battling with Fatah to gain control of its bloated security forces after its election victory.
U.S. Concerned - Al Qaeda to Gaza?
The Hamas victory in Gaza is a major concern for Washington as it also watches al-Qaeda-inspired Fatah al-Islam fighters battle Lebanese troops in Nahr al-Barad refugee camp near Tripoli for the fourth week in a row.
One leading expert has raised the prospect of the West having to contend with militants inspired or even linked to bin Laden having the ascendency in Gaza.
Jonathan Alterman, of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said: "One of the things we haven't seen yet in the Palestinian community is the rise of al-Qaeda or Qaeda-like groups. We could well have that in Gaza, not in three years' time, but in one year's time."
Yossi Mekelburg, a Middle East analyst at the Chatham House think-tank in London, said: "We said that Arafat was not a partner and we got Hamas. We said that Hamas is not a partner and we might get al-Qaeda - we already see signs of this."
Both events are part of a worrying global trend whereby groups signing on to the global Jihad movement are seizing power - or attempting to - said Dr Boaz Ganor, the executive director of the International Policy Institute for Counter Terrorism, based in Israel.
In the past, Hamas has been careful to distance itself from al-Qaeda but, after signing the Mecca agreement to join Fatah in an unity government last February, it came under fierce criticism from al-Qaeda supporters who claimed Hamas was departing from its Islamist principles by accepting such an agreement.
"Within weeks, we saw Hamas officials starting to declare not only that they wanted to 'free Palestine', but also to promote global Jihad with its ultimate aim of establishing a worldwide Islamic republic ruled by Sharia law," Ganor said.
The Iranian Connection
While Syria has played a major role in offering support to Hamas, it is Iran - with its supply of weapons and offers of training to Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups in Gaza and the West Bank - that is the mastermind behind the military rise of these groups. "Just like Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, Israel will now have Iran-by-proxy ruling Gaza," said Ganor.
"Yes, the global Jihad movement may be Sunni-based and Iran is a Shia regime but what people need to realise is that there is far more in common between those two elements than people think.
"We are witnessing a third world war between global Jihadists and those against them. It's not just a case of Muslim versus the infidel but Islamic extremists against those who don't accept their view, including moderate Muslims."
For Israel, the key issue will be the sealing off of tunnels dug underneath the Gaza-Egyptian border which have been used to smuggle weapons including longer-range rockets.
Israel is looking towards Egypt to take pro-active measures and seal off the tunnels. The Israelis fear that the crudely made Qassams, which have a limited range, are being replaced with much longer-range rockets whose reach could extend well into Israel.
International Solution?
But hopes for an international force based along the Gaza-Egypt border were dashed late last week when the Organisation of Islamic Conference, the world's biggest grouping of Islamic nations, opposed the idea.
"What is needed is not external forces. It needs a better understanding between internal forces," said the OIC secretary-general Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu. "I do think that there is a need for a strong leadership on behalf of all political leaders and the situation cannot be allowed to further deteriorate."
Hamas immediately rejected the idea. "The movement would regard those forces as occupation forces no different to the Israeli occupation, regardless of their nationality," Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri said.
But an international force will be on the agenda for Tuesday's meeting between Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and US President George Bush as the two leaders discuss how to ensure violence does not spill over to the West Bank.
In order to bolster a weakened Abbas, Washington will put pressure on Israel to release tax revenues that have been frozen since Hamas came to power in March last year and to begin making serious concessions in the West Bank, including the removal of road blocks and lifting of restrictions. Israel last night said would allow humanitarian aid into the area.
Fatah Promises Reprisals
Back on the West Bank, Fatah militants torched Hamas offices and warned of more reprisals if comrades were harmed in Gaza.
Now the Palestinian territories and its four million residents are well and truly divided into two distinct regions which are separated by 30 miles of Israel. Palestinians are now referring to it as a three-state solution.
And in Gaza, Hamas will need to deal with the reality of governing an area where some 65% of people live below the poverty line. Its economy, already shattered by the last intifada, has been devastated by the international aid boycott which came into effect after Hamas, which still refuses to renounce violence or to recognise Israel's right to exist, came to power in early 2006.
With the rise in kidnappings of foreigners along with worsening violence, most international aid organisations no longer operate in Gaza, which also gets its water and electricity from Israel and Egypt.
Palestinians in Gaza say they are facing shortages of basic food and medical supplies.
"Hamas will find it difficult to translate their military victory into a political achievement given the way they imposed their power on to Gaza," said Mouin Rabbani, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group.
http://news.scotsman.com/international.cfm?id=946642007
