Michael Tomasky on Romney’s Stunning, Terrible Choice of Ryan for VP

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Michael Tomasky on Romney’s Stunning, Terrible Choice of Ryan for VP

Paul Ryan? Really? It’s a stunning choice. A terrible one too. By making it, Mitt Romney tells America that he is not his own man and hasn’t even the remotest fleeting desire to be his own man. He is owned by the right wing. Did I write a couple of weeks ago that Romney was insecure? Well—Q.E.D.
House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan

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Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin at a news conference at the Capitol last March. (T.J. Kirkpatrick)

Ryan will immediately become the flashpoint of this campaign. Yes, he’ll get the usual soft-focus biographical rollout. Expect Republicans to talk endlessly about his authenticity, his blue-collar roots, the fact that he once drove an Oscar Mayer weiner truck—and, certainly, his Catholicism. Also, his brains. He’s a smart guy, no doubt of that, although as I’ve written many times, it says something deeply pathetic about the GOP that Ryan has managed to become a star just because he’s bothered to learn policy.
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So he’ll get some good press, and he’ll generate great enthusiasm among conservative intellectuals. But the introduction of him to the American people will inevitably involve some other things, too. It will involve explanations from the media that he is the GOP’s archconservative theoretician. It will involve explaining who Ayn Rand is. It will involve going into detail on his budget, and in particular his plans for Medicare. Learn that now, folks, if you don’t know it already. It will involve endless interpretations exactly like mine, about Romney sending a signal that he is running an ultraconservative campaign. The Ryan controversy will overtake the campaign. Romney will become in some senses the running mate—the ticket’s No. 2.

Think of it: The candidate will be running on his vice president’s ideas! It’s a staggering thought. Ryan might as well debate Obama this October, and Romney can square off against Biden.

And in this light, it’s what this choice says about Romney that is most interesting. Romney had to know all this. He had to accept, privately and internally, the arguments one hears that he’s a boring white guy who excites no one. And he had to accept the reality that he still, after flip-flopping on a half-dozen key issues and doing so much pandering, hasn’t koshered himself up with the right.

So, you’re Mitt Romney. You’re sitting there in your hotel suite alone at midnight. You’re thinking about this choice. After plowing through the angles about this state and that state and each person’s plusses and minuses, you think to yourself, “But I have to make the choice that I want to make, a choice that says something about me.” And yet, at the crucial moment, you recoil from it. You’re afraid to do that. Doing that might upset The Wall Street Journal’s editorial page or Bill Kristol, and goodness, that can’t be. It’s deeply craven.

Democrats are celebrating. Are they overdoing it? Ryan is smart. He’ll hold his own on the trail. He’ll talk about the fiscal cliff coming at the end of the year, and he’ll probably make as credible a case as any conservative can make that Obama won’t make the “tough choices” and Republicans will.

And don’t forget that he has a grudge against Obama personally, ever since that George Washington University speech of Obama’s in April 2011 when he invited Ryan—and made the guy sit there and listen to the president of the United States trash him. That’s probably a motivator. And the Democrats might overplay their hand. That’s always a temptation when the target is as big and juicy as Ryan is.

So Democrats will have to be smart. They should show respect for Ryan for being a serious guy, but then just explain to people, urgently but not over-heatedly, what he’s proposed. It’s just very hard to imagine that middle-of-the-road voters want harsh future cuts to Medicare, massive tax cuts for the rich, and huge reductions to domestic programs that most swing voters really don’t hate. Does this choice work in Florida, with all those old people? If Romney just sacrificed Florida, he’s lost the election already.

And why? To placate a party that doesn’t even want him as its nominee anyway. It’s psycho-weird. But at least it will carry the benefit, if this ticket loses, of keeping conservatives from griping that they lost because their ticket was too moderate. Conservatism will share—will own—this loss.

Is all that "daring"? Well, Thelma and Louise were "daring" too, but they ended up at the bottom of a canyon. If the Democrats handle this situation properly, that's where this ticket will end up too, and then the rest of us—the people who don't want federal policy to be based on Atlas Shrugged—can finally and fully press the case to the right that America is not behind you, and please grow up.
 
Why Ryan?

Mitt Romney is a famously cautious man, very alert to downside risks. Yet by selecting Paul Ryan as his running mate (assuming the late-night reports are indeed correct) Romney has taken an awesome ideological gamble. This election—which Romney once intended to make a referendum on Obama's record—will now become a referendum on Paul Ryan's bold budget ideas. Why would Romney make such a choice and take such a risk?

5 hypotheses:

1) Like many Republicans, Mitt Romney has been genuinely radicalized since 2008. He has adopted Ryan's ideas as his own and sincerely wishes to campaign on them, and—if elected—govern by them.

2) Romney's internal polling shows that he is not holding the GOP base. Possibly some of his slide in the polls over the past weeks represents leakage from his right flank, not his left. He may imagine that he needs Ryan as his best hope to unify his party.

3) The donors demanded it. Romney is raising huge sums of super PAC money from comparatively few people. The result of this financial strategy is to empower donor preferences—and they may prefer Ryan.

4) Romney may be thinking ahead to after the election. If the Republicans should win in 2012, a House budget chairman Ryan would emerge as the effective leader of the Republicans in the House. Romney may calculate that it's safer to have Ryan inside the administration under his control than acting as an independent power on Capitol Hill.

5) Romney may just have crumbled and yielded to pressure.

When I air skepticism about this pick, I get push-back from overjoyed conservatives. On Ryan's behalf, it must be said: he's intelligent, serious-minded, and refreshingly sincere. In character, Paul Ryan is everything one would want in a national political leader.

Yet it's also true that Ryan has been pushed forward by people who do not much like or respect Mitt Romney, precisely with a view to constraining and controlling a Romney presidency. By acceding to that pressure—for whichever of the five reasons above, or for some sixth or seventh reason—Romney has transformed a campaign about jobs and growth into a campaign about entitlements and Medicare. Romney will now have to spend the next months explaining how and why shrinking Medicare after 2023 will create prosperity in 2013. Economic conditions are so tough—the Obama reelection proposition is so weak—that Romney may win anyway. But wow, the job just got harder.
 
Interesting read, thanks.

My immediate concern/question is: about 48-72 hours after the newness of picking Ryan wears off -- WILL THE SELECTION CHANGE THE TAX NARRATIVE ??? The tax attack has been more than just worrisome to Romney and it has a ways to play out. As conservative columnist George Will has aptly pointed out:


“The cost of not releasing the returns are clear. Therefore, [Romney] must have calculated that there are higher costs in releasing them.”

There is every reason to believe Romney is hiding something he believes would be more devastating than has been his refusal to release his past returns - - especially those returns he filed after the McCain team vetted Romney in 2008 and the 2010 return he has released in this race. If Ryan's selection can't change the tax narrative, considering the pluses and minuses of picking Ryan, any boost Romney receives from this pick might be short lived.
 
I wouldn't say (yet) that he's a terrible pick... but he is farrrrr from a perfect pick, at least outside of the base.

Not sure if anyone brought this up, but Mitt Romney has made it a point throughout the campaign to point out how President Obama lacks the kind of private sector experience that he has. At one point, he even said that there should be a rule that presidents should have at least a few years business experience... but now to be one step away from POTUS, he picks Paul Ryan, who is pretty light on private sector experience. He has some, but I think about the same amount as the president.
 
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