Landscape shifts:
Democrats could take control of Senate
GOP defending 24 seats, Democrats 10
Seven GOP-held seats up in states Obama won in 2012
Nevada only Democratic seat seen in play for Republicans
Democrats could take control of Senate
GOP defending 24 seats, Democrats 10
Seven GOP-held seats up in states Obama won in 2012
Nevada only Democratic seat seen in play for Republicans
McClatchy
By David Lightman
dlightman@mcclatchydc.com
October 23, 2016
WASHINGTON — There’s another pivotal election next year besides the White House. The Senate is up for grabs, and the landscape a year out suggests the Democrats could win control away from the Republicans.
The party needs a net gain of four seats to gain control if a Democrat wins the White House, five if a Republican wins. That’s better odds than gaining a majority in the House of Representatives, which is expected to remain under Republican control, and winning the presidency, which right now is impossible to predict.
But the Senate has a special allure. Republicans have to defend 24 Senate seats next year, offices they won in 2010, when so much went right for them. Democrats only have to retain 10, and virtually all seem sure bets.
Not on the Republican side. The party swept to big 2010 victories as the tea party movement mobilized grass-roots conservative voters. Republican fury over Obamacare, which had become law eight months before the election, was peaking. The economy was officially coming out of the Great Recession, but barely.
Now Democrats could get even?
Seven Republican-held seats will be contested next year in states President Barack Obama won in 2012; all but Iowa have potential to be Democratic gains. The party’s also due for a boost because Democratic voters tend to turn out in bigger numbers in presidential years.
“Coattails will be a gigantic factor,” said Geoffrey Skelley, associate editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a respected Virginia-based political analysis group. If the Democratic presidential nominee wins by more than 5 percentage points in a particular state, that usually sweeps others into office.
The only Democratic-held seat in jeopardy is Nevada, where Minority Leader Harry Reid is retiring.
States Obama carried where Republican incumbents face challenges are Florida, Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. Democrats have a unifying theme. Obama also carried Iowa, but Republican Sen. Charles Grassley is a strong favorite to win re-election.
“All you’ve got to do is look how they (Republicans) fouled this whole government system up and how they take responsibility for nothing that they do,” said Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the campaign operation for Democratic Senate candidates.
Bring it on, counter Republicans.
“We can’t predict the future, but at this point last cycle a lot of folks were only talking about gasoline prices. On Election Day, the conversation was entirely different,” said Kevin McLaughlin, deputy executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
“Democrats have a record of terrible leadership that has made the economy and national security the top two issues with voters. We’ll take that,” he said.
By David Lightman
dlightman@mcclatchydc.com
October 23, 2016
WASHINGTON — There’s another pivotal election next year besides the White House. The Senate is up for grabs, and the landscape a year out suggests the Democrats could win control away from the Republicans.
The party needs a net gain of four seats to gain control if a Democrat wins the White House, five if a Republican wins. That’s better odds than gaining a majority in the House of Representatives, which is expected to remain under Republican control, and winning the presidency, which right now is impossible to predict.
But the Senate has a special allure. Republicans have to defend 24 Senate seats next year, offices they won in 2010, when so much went right for them. Democrats only have to retain 10, and virtually all seem sure bets.
Not on the Republican side. The party swept to big 2010 victories as the tea party movement mobilized grass-roots conservative voters. Republican fury over Obamacare, which had become law eight months before the election, was peaking. The economy was officially coming out of the Great Recession, but barely.
Now Democrats could get even?
Seven Republican-held seats will be contested next year in states President Barack Obama won in 2012; all but Iowa have potential to be Democratic gains. The party’s also due for a boost because Democratic voters tend to turn out in bigger numbers in presidential years.
“Coattails will be a gigantic factor,” said Geoffrey Skelley, associate editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a respected Virginia-based political analysis group. If the Democratic presidential nominee wins by more than 5 percentage points in a particular state, that usually sweeps others into office.
The only Democratic-held seat in jeopardy is Nevada, where Minority Leader Harry Reid is retiring.
States Obama carried where Republican incumbents face challenges are Florida, Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. Democrats have a unifying theme. Obama also carried Iowa, but Republican Sen. Charles Grassley is a strong favorite to win re-election.
“All you’ve got to do is look how they (Republicans) fouled this whole government system up and how they take responsibility for nothing that they do,” said Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the campaign operation for Democratic Senate candidates.
Bring it on, counter Republicans.
“We can’t predict the future, but at this point last cycle a lot of folks were only talking about gasoline prices. On Election Day, the conversation was entirely different,” said Kevin McLaughlin, deputy executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
“Democrats have a record of terrible leadership that has made the economy and national security the top two issues with voters. We’ll take that,” he said.
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article41169798.html