http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/6/17/74253/5473
Kansas is a red state. During the 20th century, the Democrats carried it in only five of 25 elections -- even FDR lost the state twice -- and only in four elections did the party's share of the vote in the state even top 45 percent (a couple of the wins for the Democrats were pluralities). The Democrats' best showing in Kansas since Lyndon Johnson's 54.09 percent share of the vote in the state that year during his near sweep nationwide was Jimmy Carter's 44.94 percent of the vote in 1980, followed by Michael Dukakis' 42.56 percent in 1988.
It is with these numbers as a background that I have been so surprised by the head-to-head polling pitting John McCain against Barack Obama in the Sunflower state. Democratic numbers from the pollsters behind Kathleen Sebelius' successes in Kansas show a remarkably close race in the state, with McCain scoring just 45 percent of the vote to Obama's 41 percent. Even if one is loath to put too much stock in partisan polling, recent nonpartisan polling shows that while the race isn't yet competitive, it has the distinct possibility of becoming so.
Last week, Rasmussen Reports released data out of Kansas showing McCain with a 47 percent to 37 percent lead -- not a bad showing, but not an overwhelming one either, particularly considering that George W. Bush carried the state by a 62 percent to 37 percent margin in 2004. Each of the last four polls out of the state have in fact shown McCain's lead to be 11 points or fewer, with the Pollster.com trend estimate giving McCain a 10.6 percentage point lead, Real Clear Politics giving him a 10.3 percentage point lead, and Nate Silver projecting a 9.7 percent McCain lead.
These numbers show that while Obama is already running about even with Democratic candidates in years past in Kansas, McCain is running well behind the normal Republican clip. This could yet pick up for McCain -- but it is a story we're hearing in state after state after state (including, I might add, McCain's own home state of Arizona, which his own campaign staffers list as a swing state). And as long as McCain is unable to top 50 percent in a state, he is at least going to have to think about what kind of campaign he's running there, potentially even being forced to invest some resources into ensuring he can secure a majority (or at least a strong plurality with Bob Barr on the ballot).
In short, Kansas is not yet really on the map in this election -- and yet it isn't exactly off the map, either. And that should be real cause for consternation for McCain and the GOP bigwigs.
Kansas is a red state. During the 20th century, the Democrats carried it in only five of 25 elections -- even FDR lost the state twice -- and only in four elections did the party's share of the vote in the state even top 45 percent (a couple of the wins for the Democrats were pluralities). The Democrats' best showing in Kansas since Lyndon Johnson's 54.09 percent share of the vote in the state that year during his near sweep nationwide was Jimmy Carter's 44.94 percent of the vote in 1980, followed by Michael Dukakis' 42.56 percent in 1988.
It is with these numbers as a background that I have been so surprised by the head-to-head polling pitting John McCain against Barack Obama in the Sunflower state. Democratic numbers from the pollsters behind Kathleen Sebelius' successes in Kansas show a remarkably close race in the state, with McCain scoring just 45 percent of the vote to Obama's 41 percent. Even if one is loath to put too much stock in partisan polling, recent nonpartisan polling shows that while the race isn't yet competitive, it has the distinct possibility of becoming so.
Last week, Rasmussen Reports released data out of Kansas showing McCain with a 47 percent to 37 percent lead -- not a bad showing, but not an overwhelming one either, particularly considering that George W. Bush carried the state by a 62 percent to 37 percent margin in 2004. Each of the last four polls out of the state have in fact shown McCain's lead to be 11 points or fewer, with the Pollster.com trend estimate giving McCain a 10.6 percentage point lead, Real Clear Politics giving him a 10.3 percentage point lead, and Nate Silver projecting a 9.7 percent McCain lead.
These numbers show that while Obama is already running about even with Democratic candidates in years past in Kansas, McCain is running well behind the normal Republican clip. This could yet pick up for McCain -- but it is a story we're hearing in state after state after state (including, I might add, McCain's own home state of Arizona, which his own campaign staffers list as a swing state). And as long as McCain is unable to top 50 percent in a state, he is at least going to have to think about what kind of campaign he's running there, potentially even being forced to invest some resources into ensuring he can secure a majority (or at least a strong plurality with Bob Barr on the ballot).
In short, Kansas is not yet really on the map in this election -- and yet it isn't exactly off the map, either. And that should be real cause for consternation for McCain and the GOP bigwigs.