http://www.frostillustrated.com/full.php?sid=3213
By Cash Michaels
Special to the NNPA
from the Wilmington Journal
WILMINGTON, N.C. (NNPA)-There was good news, and bad news in Sen. Barack Obama's convincing March 11 win in Mississippi's Democratic presidential primary.
African Americans, who doubted Obama's candidacy just six months ago, gave him an astounding 92 percent of their votes-the most of any primary contest thus far-in his 61 to 37 percent blowout of rival Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.).
That mirrors similar trends in southern primary states like South Carolina, Georgia and Louisiana with significant black voting populations.
Translation-if Obama is the Democrat Party standard bearer against Republican Sen. John Mc- Cain in November, the black vote will be there to help get the Illinois Democrat to the White House, and history.
But, there's also bad news.
Obama could only muster approximately 25 percent of white Mississippian support, with Sen. Clinton taking the lion's share.
In fact, while Obama has won dramatically in overwhelmingly white states like Iowa, Vermont and Idaho; and has done exceedingly well in attracting white upper-class voters and college students, his white voter totals in several Southern states have been quite low.
Low enough that Democrats fear those southern white Democrats will do what they've religiously done in the past if Obama is the nominee-vote Republican.
The trend is alarming primarily because Sen. Obama decidedly has run the most nonracial presidential campaign imaginable, spreading the notion during stump speeches nationwide that he can unite Americans beyond the traditional divisions of race, class and gender.
Obama steadfastly has stuck to his unifying message despite brazen attempts by the press per the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy, and even Sen. Clinton's campaign attempts to embroil him in racial controversies, including Clinton supporter Geraldine Ferraro's comments about Obama "being lucky" and "if Obama was a white man, he would not be in this position."
Ferraro, a former Congresswoman and the only woman ever to run on a presidential ticket as vice president, was forced to resign from Clinton's finance committee.
Obama was forced to denounce the incendiary preaching of his former pastor in a speech from Philadelphia. But, he refused to denounce the Rev. Wright, a move that many pundits speculated will hurt him with white so-called "Reagan Democrat" voters.
The political axiom is that no Democrat can win the White House without winning the South -white and black-and indeed, none has since Bill Clinton, a southerner, won in 1992 and 1996.
In fact, per the past 30 years, only one other Democrat, Jimmy Carter, a southerner, has won the White House. Carter, a Georgia governor in 1976, is the last Democratic presidential candidate to win in North Carolina in a general election.
Beyond white voters generally, Democrats can't win 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue without white Democrat males-who left the party more than 30 years ago to vote conservative Republican-come back.
"The truth is that the most important factor shaping the 2008 election will almost certainly be the same one that has been the most important in presidential elections for the past 40 years: the flight of white male voters away from the Democratic Party," writes David Paul Kuhn in an October 2007 Politico.com piece titled, "Dems Must Woo White Men To Win."
"The hostility of this group to Democrats and their perceived values is so pervasive that even many people who make their living in politics scarcely remark on it. But, it is the main reason the election 13 months from now is virtually certain to be close…," Kuhn continued, later adding, "…[a] high number of white men-who make up about 36 percent of the electorate… refuse to even consider voting Democratic."
Unless Barack Obama can garner at least 35 percent of the white vote in the South and elsewhere to piggyback the massive black vote he's sure to get, political observers note, his bid for history if he wins the Democratic nomination this summer, could be short lived.
Mississippi was Sen. Obama's most recent Southern test.
His next Dixie trial will be May 6 in North Carolina, a state with a well-worn history of denying quality black Democratic candidates elections in statewide contests. These are contests where a significant number of white NC Democrats chose the Republican candidate who looked like them, over the black Democrat who did not. The 1990 and 1996 high profile US Senate races between former Charlotte Mayor Harvey Gantt, a black Democrat, and conservative Republican incumbent Sen. Jesse Helms, are the most prominent examples.
With Republican voter registration nowhere near rank-in-file Democrats in North Carolina at the time, it was clear in both Helms victories that white Democrats, especially after Helms' racially provocative campaigns, made the difference, voting against their own candidate.
In subsequent years, a significant number of black Democrat candidates for the state Supreme and Appellate courts have failed to garner white Democrat support.
The last black Democrat to be elected to the NC Supreme Court, Justice Patricia Timmons-Goodson, had to have the white governor of North Carolina, Mike Easley, cut all of her television commercials out of fear that if white Democrats statewide realized they were voting for the first black female jurist to sit on the state's high court, they would throw their support to the white Republican candidate instead.
Obama is apparently taking no chances. He made high-profile appearances in both Fayetteville and Charlotte, touting positions on the war in Iraq on that conflict's fifth anniversary, and on the sinking economy.
In South Carolina, while netting 78 percent of the black vote, particularly after the racially-tinged campaign mounted against the black candidate by both Sen. Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, Obama could only muster 25 percent of white voters.
A week before the Palmetto State primary, polls showed Obama's white support to be as low as just 10 percent, so the extra 15 percent on Election Day was a sign of relief.
Louisiana was no different, with Clinton claiming 70 percent of the white vote. The same in Alabama, where the New York senator attracted 72 percent of white support.
In the Southwest, Clinton took whites in Texas 55 to Obama's 44 percent, winning whites ages 45-59 by a whopping 20 points.
Obama's problems with the white vote just don't exist in the South, but extend to key battleground states like Ohio, where Clinton won the state handily with a majority of both white male and female voters.
Because Pennsylvania is seen as mirror image of Ohio-namely a predominately white working class state struggling through a tough economy, Obama's ability to beat Clinton decisively there during the April 22 primary, particularly after the Rev. Wright controversy, is considered by pundits to be highly in doubt.
There have been a few Southern states where Obama surprised the pundits.
In the Georgia primary, Obama shocked observers by drawing 43 percent of the white vote. In Virginia during the so-called "Potomac Primary," while Sen. Clinton ruled with white women, Obama won the battle for white males.
In Virginia, Obama won the primary with 48 percent of the white vote, a few points behind Clinton's 51 percent, but enough to eek out a victory, and cause consternation in Clinton's white base.
Obama's ability to draw significant white votes in battleground states will be closely monitored by Democrat Party superdelegates that may ultimately decide the party's nominee.
But, if a definitive pattern of white voters rejecting Obama is projected to carry over to the fall if nominated, Hillary Clinton might get the nod.
By Cash Michaels
Special to the NNPA
from the Wilmington Journal
WILMINGTON, N.C. (NNPA)-There was good news, and bad news in Sen. Barack Obama's convincing March 11 win in Mississippi's Democratic presidential primary.
African Americans, who doubted Obama's candidacy just six months ago, gave him an astounding 92 percent of their votes-the most of any primary contest thus far-in his 61 to 37 percent blowout of rival Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.).
That mirrors similar trends in southern primary states like South Carolina, Georgia and Louisiana with significant black voting populations.
Translation-if Obama is the Democrat Party standard bearer against Republican Sen. John Mc- Cain in November, the black vote will be there to help get the Illinois Democrat to the White House, and history.
But, there's also bad news.
Obama could only muster approximately 25 percent of white Mississippian support, with Sen. Clinton taking the lion's share.
In fact, while Obama has won dramatically in overwhelmingly white states like Iowa, Vermont and Idaho; and has done exceedingly well in attracting white upper-class voters and college students, his white voter totals in several Southern states have been quite low.
Low enough that Democrats fear those southern white Democrats will do what they've religiously done in the past if Obama is the nominee-vote Republican.
The trend is alarming primarily because Sen. Obama decidedly has run the most nonracial presidential campaign imaginable, spreading the notion during stump speeches nationwide that he can unite Americans beyond the traditional divisions of race, class and gender.
Obama steadfastly has stuck to his unifying message despite brazen attempts by the press per the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy, and even Sen. Clinton's campaign attempts to embroil him in racial controversies, including Clinton supporter Geraldine Ferraro's comments about Obama "being lucky" and "if Obama was a white man, he would not be in this position."
Ferraro, a former Congresswoman and the only woman ever to run on a presidential ticket as vice president, was forced to resign from Clinton's finance committee.
Obama was forced to denounce the incendiary preaching of his former pastor in a speech from Philadelphia. But, he refused to denounce the Rev. Wright, a move that many pundits speculated will hurt him with white so-called "Reagan Democrat" voters.
The political axiom is that no Democrat can win the White House without winning the South -white and black-and indeed, none has since Bill Clinton, a southerner, won in 1992 and 1996.
In fact, per the past 30 years, only one other Democrat, Jimmy Carter, a southerner, has won the White House. Carter, a Georgia governor in 1976, is the last Democratic presidential candidate to win in North Carolina in a general election.
Beyond white voters generally, Democrats can't win 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue without white Democrat males-who left the party more than 30 years ago to vote conservative Republican-come back.
"The truth is that the most important factor shaping the 2008 election will almost certainly be the same one that has been the most important in presidential elections for the past 40 years: the flight of white male voters away from the Democratic Party," writes David Paul Kuhn in an October 2007 Politico.com piece titled, "Dems Must Woo White Men To Win."
"The hostility of this group to Democrats and their perceived values is so pervasive that even many people who make their living in politics scarcely remark on it. But, it is the main reason the election 13 months from now is virtually certain to be close…," Kuhn continued, later adding, "…[a] high number of white men-who make up about 36 percent of the electorate… refuse to even consider voting Democratic."
Unless Barack Obama can garner at least 35 percent of the white vote in the South and elsewhere to piggyback the massive black vote he's sure to get, political observers note, his bid for history if he wins the Democratic nomination this summer, could be short lived.
Mississippi was Sen. Obama's most recent Southern test.
His next Dixie trial will be May 6 in North Carolina, a state with a well-worn history of denying quality black Democratic candidates elections in statewide contests. These are contests where a significant number of white NC Democrats chose the Republican candidate who looked like them, over the black Democrat who did not. The 1990 and 1996 high profile US Senate races between former Charlotte Mayor Harvey Gantt, a black Democrat, and conservative Republican incumbent Sen. Jesse Helms, are the most prominent examples.
With Republican voter registration nowhere near rank-in-file Democrats in North Carolina at the time, it was clear in both Helms victories that white Democrats, especially after Helms' racially provocative campaigns, made the difference, voting against their own candidate.
In subsequent years, a significant number of black Democrat candidates for the state Supreme and Appellate courts have failed to garner white Democrat support.
The last black Democrat to be elected to the NC Supreme Court, Justice Patricia Timmons-Goodson, had to have the white governor of North Carolina, Mike Easley, cut all of her television commercials out of fear that if white Democrats statewide realized they were voting for the first black female jurist to sit on the state's high court, they would throw their support to the white Republican candidate instead.
Obama is apparently taking no chances. He made high-profile appearances in both Fayetteville and Charlotte, touting positions on the war in Iraq on that conflict's fifth anniversary, and on the sinking economy.
In South Carolina, while netting 78 percent of the black vote, particularly after the racially-tinged campaign mounted against the black candidate by both Sen. Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, Obama could only muster 25 percent of white voters.
A week before the Palmetto State primary, polls showed Obama's white support to be as low as just 10 percent, so the extra 15 percent on Election Day was a sign of relief.
Louisiana was no different, with Clinton claiming 70 percent of the white vote. The same in Alabama, where the New York senator attracted 72 percent of white support.
In the Southwest, Clinton took whites in Texas 55 to Obama's 44 percent, winning whites ages 45-59 by a whopping 20 points.
Obama's problems with the white vote just don't exist in the South, but extend to key battleground states like Ohio, where Clinton won the state handily with a majority of both white male and female voters.
Because Pennsylvania is seen as mirror image of Ohio-namely a predominately white working class state struggling through a tough economy, Obama's ability to beat Clinton decisively there during the April 22 primary, particularly after the Rev. Wright controversy, is considered by pundits to be highly in doubt.
There have been a few Southern states where Obama surprised the pundits.
In the Georgia primary, Obama shocked observers by drawing 43 percent of the white vote. In Virginia during the so-called "Potomac Primary," while Sen. Clinton ruled with white women, Obama won the battle for white males.
In Virginia, Obama won the primary with 48 percent of the white vote, a few points behind Clinton's 51 percent, but enough to eek out a victory, and cause consternation in Clinton's white base.
Obama's ability to draw significant white votes in battleground states will be closely monitored by Democrat Party superdelegates that may ultimately decide the party's nominee.
But, if a definitive pattern of white voters rejecting Obama is projected to carry over to the fall if nominated, Hillary Clinton might get the nod.
