NEWS
How Trump approval ratings now compare to past presidents up for reelection
By Mary Kay Linge
October 31, 2020 | 2:34pm
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Paul Martinka
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Eleven incumbent US presidents have run for re-election since Gallup began tracking their approval ratings in 1945. For 75 years, approval over 50 percent means a president wins a second term, while approval under 40 percent spells certain defeat.
In this year of uncertainties, President Trump’s approval rating is right in the electoral gray zone.
Gallup’s Oct. 27 measurement, its most recent, found Trump with an approval rating of 46 percent, a 3-percent rise from the Oct. 15 survey.
Past presidents’ electoral success with similar ratings has been mixed. Gerald Ford, at 45 percent approval in June of 1976 (when Gallup gauged it less frequently), was defeated that November. Barack Obama, whose approval rating remained in the 40s for almost all of his re-election year before ending at 50 percent, went on to victory.
“If you look at the approval trend lines in Obama’s and Trump’s first terms, they are actually very similar,” said Helmut Norpoth, a Stony Brook University political science professor who has studied presidential popularity. “Trump’s has been a little lower, but not by much. Obama didn’t get over 50 percent in 2012 until just before the election.”
The approval basement-dwellers both lost their re-election bids. George H.W. Bush scored a dismal 34 percent approval in October 1992; Jimmy Carter was at 37 percent in October 1980.
But the exception that confounds the rule is Harry Truman. In June 1948, with a 40 percent approval rating, he seemed to be a dead president walking. Thomas E. Dewey, the Republican challenger, thought the race was such a lock that he barely campaigned at all.
“That’s when Truman began his famous whistle-stop tour, making about 240 appearances while Dewey made barely 40 — an incredible discrepancy,” Norpoth said.
The result was an election-night shocker and an iconic image: the victorious incumbent lofting an early-edition newspaper that falsely proclaimed, “Dewey Defeats Truman.”
“Truman really earned it,” Norpoth said. “What happened was a lot of Democrats were undecided early and were sitting on the sidelines. But Truman’s active campaigning brought them home.”
In 2020, the disparity between Trump’s frenzied campaign schedule and Biden’s passive public presence mirrors the Truman-Dewey divide.
“If there’s any slack in Republicans’ eagerness to vote for Trump again, that’s clearly where an active campaign could make a difference,” Norpoth said.
But the approval-rating rule of thumb may be a correlation, not a cause, of electoral victory.
Norpoth’s own predictive model for presidential elections correctly identifies the winner of 25 out of the last 27 contests — including every race involving an incumbent. The forecast, based on primary results and other indicators of party cohesion, has never been thrown off by pre-election polls or news events.
The model foresees a 362-electoral-vote Trump victory.
“I guess this is the election that will really put it to the test,” Norpoth said.
Enlarge ImageDonald TrumpGetty Images
Here is the approval rating for President Trump, as well as those of past incumbent presidents during election years:
Presidential approval ratings for incumbent candidates in election years throughout history
Enlarge Image
How Trump approval ratings now compare to past presidents up for reelection
By Mary Kay Linge
October 31, 2020 | 2:34pm
Enlarge Image
Paul Martinka
MORE ON:
2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Trump makes Michigan appeal, blasts Biden as Election Day nears
FBI investigating 'Trump Train' swarming of Biden bus on Texas interstate: report
Obama 'shoots shot' and nails 3-pointer while on campaign trail for Joe Biden
Hunter Biden was very bad at setting password on his infamous laptop: report
Eleven incumbent US presidents have run for re-election since Gallup began tracking their approval ratings in 1945. For 75 years, approval over 50 percent means a president wins a second term, while approval under 40 percent spells certain defeat.
In this year of uncertainties, President Trump’s approval rating is right in the electoral gray zone.
Gallup’s Oct. 27 measurement, its most recent, found Trump with an approval rating of 46 percent, a 3-percent rise from the Oct. 15 survey.
Past presidents’ electoral success with similar ratings has been mixed. Gerald Ford, at 45 percent approval in June of 1976 (when Gallup gauged it less frequently), was defeated that November. Barack Obama, whose approval rating remained in the 40s for almost all of his re-election year before ending at 50 percent, went on to victory.
“If you look at the approval trend lines in Obama’s and Trump’s first terms, they are actually very similar,” said Helmut Norpoth, a Stony Brook University political science professor who has studied presidential popularity. “Trump’s has been a little lower, but not by much. Obama didn’t get over 50 percent in 2012 until just before the election.”
The approval basement-dwellers both lost their re-election bids. George H.W. Bush scored a dismal 34 percent approval in October 1992; Jimmy Carter was at 37 percent in October 1980.
But the exception that confounds the rule is Harry Truman. In June 1948, with a 40 percent approval rating, he seemed to be a dead president walking. Thomas E. Dewey, the Republican challenger, thought the race was such a lock that he barely campaigned at all.
“That’s when Truman began his famous whistle-stop tour, making about 240 appearances while Dewey made barely 40 — an incredible discrepancy,” Norpoth said.
The result was an election-night shocker and an iconic image: the victorious incumbent lofting an early-edition newspaper that falsely proclaimed, “Dewey Defeats Truman.”
“Truman really earned it,” Norpoth said. “What happened was a lot of Democrats were undecided early and were sitting on the sidelines. But Truman’s active campaigning brought them home.”
In 2020, the disparity between Trump’s frenzied campaign schedule and Biden’s passive public presence mirrors the Truman-Dewey divide.
“If there’s any slack in Republicans’ eagerness to vote for Trump again, that’s clearly where an active campaign could make a difference,” Norpoth said.
But the approval-rating rule of thumb may be a correlation, not a cause, of electoral victory.
Norpoth’s own predictive model for presidential elections correctly identifies the winner of 25 out of the last 27 contests — including every race involving an incumbent. The forecast, based on primary results and other indicators of party cohesion, has never been thrown off by pre-election polls or news events.
The model foresees a 362-electoral-vote Trump victory.
“I guess this is the election that will really put it to the test,” Norpoth said.
Enlarge ImageDonald TrumpGetty Images
Here is the approval rating for President Trump, as well as those of past incumbent presidents during election years:
- Trump (Oct. 27, 2020): 46%
- Obama (2012): 50%, won
- G.W. Bush (2004): 51%, won
- Clinton (1996): 54%, won
- G.H.W. Bush (1992): 34%, lost
- Reagan (1984): 54%, won
- Carter (1980): 37%, lost
- Ford (1976): 45%, lost
- Nixon (1972): 56%, won
- Johnson (1964): 74%, won
- Eisenhower (1956): 68%, won
- Truman (1948): 40%, wonSource: Gallup
Presidential approval ratings for incumbent candidates in election years throughout history
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