How Often do High School Recruiting Rankings Translate to NBA Success?

[xfactor]

Great read to see the correlation between high school basketball recruiting rankings and how that translates into the pinnacle of success for a basketball player (making it to the NBA).

The article includes graduating classes of 1998 - 2003 and the players are broken down into 6 categories: Superstar, All Star, Starter, Regular, Scrub, Did not Play.

A lot of notables here for players in the Did Not Play range that used to tear it up in HS and AAU. Especially for us that grew up during these years and played against guys on the list. A lot of these guys I haven't thought about in years. (Despite thinking as a kid that certain players would definitely have made it)

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9864

Rank    DNP   Scrub  Regular Starter All-Star Superstar
1-5 	16% 	10% 	16% 	35% 	16% 	6%
6-10 	38% 	10% 	10% 	31% 	7% 	3%
11-25 	46% 	16% 	16% 	19% 	2% 	0%
26-50 	70% 	9% 	7% 	12% 	2% 	0%
51-100 	82% 	5% 	7% 	5% 	1% 	0%

Rank    DNP   Scrub  Regular Starter All-Star Superstar
Top5 	16% 	10% 	16% 	35% 	16% 	6%
Top10 	27% 	10% 	13% 	33% 	12% 	5%
Top25 	38% 	14% 	15% 	25% 	6% 	2%
Top50 	54% 	12% 	11% 	18% 	4% 	1%
Top100 	68% 	9% 	9% 	12% 	2% 	1%

You can see the full list here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?page_id=9865


I wonder where all the BGOL ballers ranked? I'm sure there will be a plethora of them on the list.

Moral of the story: Unless you're the top ranked player in your class, chances are you aren't making it to the league.

 

[TruDat]

the moral to the story is; if and when you get a college scholarship
you better make the most of your education because
the odds of making it to the pros is limited.

I remember Sean Dockery our of my hometown CHI
I was upset he went to the dukke stains instead of the fighting illini

ronald curry of unc, hmm, wasnt he a 2 star athlete in football and basketball
coming out of high school. I believe espn did a cover story on him.

and i remember Lenny Cooke, news articles had him the next
coming of a future NBA hall-a-famer

and JR Giddens was highly touted out of high school
SMH

interesting to see gilbert arenas was ranked at #99 in 1999 high school ratings

i thought that Dejuan Wagner, Korleone Young and Julius Hodge was gonna be a good NBA talent
man was I wrong

I wonder how many of these players actually went to get
their education or how many are playing in nbdl or overseas

 

[cranrab]

Moral of the story: Unless you're the top ranked player in your class, chances are you aren't making it to the league.

2nd moral to the story.

a lot of people who purport to be scouts don't know shit about actual basketball.

 

[gamersfuel]

but take away the overseas players and i wonder what the list would look like.