<font size="5"><center>
Is this the new mistress of France’s fortunes?</font size>
<font size="4">Debt and discontent are tearing France apart.
Will Ségolène Royal be the one to unite the country
as its first female president? </font size></center>
Sunday Times
By Matthew Campbell
April 15, 2006
With her soft voice, Ségolène Royal does not sound like a politician. She does not look much like one either. These are big pluses on the French election-campaign trail. Stylishly dressed in an apple-green designer suit with knee-length leather boots laced up over tangerine tights, she was enjoying a lunch of oysters and braised duck while musing over her chances of becoming France’s first female president. "That would be something," she said, laughing. "It would be a planetary event."
Later, in her office in the town of Poitiers, in west-central France, Royal warmed to her theme, referring to the German election of Chancellor Angela Merkel. "In France, we are saying, ‘If Germany has done it, we can do it too.’"
The soft voice belies a core of steel. In opinion polls, this elegant mother of four has consistently scored higher than any other politician and, were she the candidate in an election today, could be expected to win. The emergence of Ségo, as they often refer to the 52-year-old Royal, has rattled male politicians, highlighting a surprisingly chauvinistic streak in a country so progressive in other domains. "They’re afraid," says Royal, who dismisses as "dinosaurs" the men in her own Socialist political family who have poured scorn on her presidential hopes. "They’re afraid I am going to take their place."
They have every reason to be. From the rejection of the EU constitution to mass rioting and protests, the French are in an unforgiving mood as they prepare for a presidential election in just over a year. They are fed up with the male-dominated elite, the familiar cast of politicians, from the outgoing centre-right President Jacques Chirac to the wrinkly Socialist luminary Jack Lang – the former minister with the all-year tan – who have dominated the political landscape for more than two decades. Could the time have come for an unorthodox female leader in a country that has never before had a woman as head of state?
Perhaps. France might have some of the world’s most dynamic companies, but it is in dreadful shape. The economy grew by a mere 1.4% in 2005, and wealth per person has been overtaken by Britain’s and Ireland’s. While many of the brightest emigrate in search of better job opportunities – London is one of the favourite destinations – the state is piling up debt to support the rising health and retirement costs of an ageing population and mass unemployment: almost a quarter of potential workers under 26 are on the dole, compared with 13% in Britain. And as public debt increases, France’s shrinking population currently works shorter hours than those in most advanced countries. Something has to give.
According to Michel Pébereau, chairman of the BNP Paribas bank, debt could soar from the current 65% to 100% of GDP by 2014, resulting in a "foreseeable reduction of our capacity to create jobs and wealth". Or as François Bayrou, a centre-right politician, put it, "If it [France] were a company, it would already have been declared bankrupt. If it were a family, the bailiffs would be banging at the door."
He believes part of the problem is that France has never been properly "déMarxisé": a recent opinion poll found that 66% of the British agree that the free market is the best available system, but the number is only 36% in France, one of the few countries left in the world where the Communist party is still respected.
The strong dirigiste state is virtually a religion, and more than one quarter of all jobs are still in the public sector. Suspicion of money and profit runs deep. Even supposedly Conservative politicians such as Chirac see Britain’s economic model as "free-market misery". Efforts at even modest reform have repeatedly foundered on fears that the "French way" is under attack and that the country’s soul will be drowned in the torrent of globalisation. In this climate, can any leader find a new way forward to deliver France from the crisis?
Royal and Nicolas Sarkozy, the interior minister who is her most likely rival in an election, believe they can. Both are politicians outside the usual mould. This could make them the protagonists in one of the most significant contests of modern French history: "Ségo vs Sarko". Both are in their early fifties – extraordinarily young for French presidential candidates – and both are at odds with their parties, a detail that complicates life considerably for Royal, considering that she lives with François Hollande, the Socialist leader.
She has always had an unconventional streak, and has lived with Hollande for three decades without marrying him. They met at the Ecole National d’Administration, or ENA, a nursery for the ruling elite. Though she shares the same technocratic background as the older generation of politicians, her respect for the way Tony Blair modernised his party puts her at odds with their conventional wisdom. She has praised the "flexibility" with which he brought down unemployment, and disdains the Anglophobia so common these days in her own party. "I hate the way he has been demonised over here," she says. In addition, in a country hardly known for its puritanical streak, her social conservatism has also made her controversial. Her opposition to single-sex families, which has alienated the gay vote, goes against party orthodoxy, as does her recent campaign against advertisements for thong underwear. She has carved out her own niche in economic matters too. Unlike other socialists, she has criticised the wastefulness of the 35-hour week and denounced the "squandering" of public money.
Sarkozy, for his part, has already changed French politics with the introduction of what are widely derided as "Anglo-Saxon" policies such as "zero-tolerance policing" and "American-style" campaigning techniques. The son of a Hungarian immigrant, he can delight in not being an énarque, as they refer to graduates from ENA. "I am for the total reconstruction of France," he says, advocating what he calls a complete "rupture" with the past.
This will not be easy, however, judging by the experiences of Dominique de Villepin, the prime minister vying with Sarkozy for the centre-right presidential nomination. De Villepin’s attempt to inject a bit more flexibility into the rigid labour market hardly amounts to Sarkozy’s bold "rupture", but even this bit of tinkering recently brought the country to a standstill in a series of demonstrations and strikes. The contrat première embauche (CPE), or first employment contract, was an attempt to encourage employers to take on more young workers by giving them the power to sack them without notice if they had been employed for under two years. In so doing, he united both those young French people who were opposed to change and wanted the state to guarantee them a future, and those youngsters from the ghettos who felt excluded at a much deeper level. This failure to convince the very people who might benefit from such a law rules out any more serious reforming before the elections, and might even conspire against a reform package being introduced after the vote. De Villepin may be to blame for botching a long-overdue rendezvous with renewal. How could he have got it so wrong?
The answer may lie in observing France’s prime minister at work and play. He epitomises an elite removed from the everyday lives of his own citizens. In February this year, I travelled with him on an official visit to Moscow to meet Vladimir Putin. The temperature outside was -12C, and though it was only 10am, inside the French Embassy servants were handing around glasses of vodka to ward off the cold. De Villepin, a tall, silver-haired figure, was locked in animated conversation with Sergei Ivanov, the Russian defence minister. They were talking in Spanish, one of the languages they have in common. De Villepin did not let slip any opportunity to flaunt his linguistic skills – and general brilliance. Even recent events may fail to dent his astounding confidence. He has written books – about history, mainly – and poetry. He has a beautiful wife and two children: a son named Arthur, after Rimbaud, the poet, and a daughter who has modelled for Elle. Admirers claim he is irresistible to women. From this lofty height, he is said to look down his nose at members of parliament – the prime minister calls them "connards", or arseholes – preferring the company of writers and intellectuals. Put a curly wig on him and de Villepin would no doubt feel at home in an 18th-century Parisian salon. A career diplomat, he graduated from the ENA in the same year as Royal but, unlike her, has never been elected to public office.
This does not stop him dreaming of glory, and he is prepared to take the daftest risks to achieve it. As foreign minister, he sent a team of French secret agents to rescue his former pupil Ingrid Betancourt, a Colombian presidential candidate, from Marxist rebels in the jungle. The idea was to fly her back to Paris in time for the quatorze juillet (July 14) celebrations. De Villepin would be hailed as a hero. However, when the rescuers landed in Brazil in their unmarked French military aircraft laden with guns and cash, they were arrested by police on suspicion of drug-trafficking. The unfortunate Betancourt is still in captivity.
This in no way dampened de Villepin’s appetite for risk-taking. His posturing and puffed-up sense of mission make him an embodiment of some of the most irritating – and, to some, endearing – aspects of French national character. "It is a heavy burden, being prime minister," he acknowledged during his visit to the French embassy in Moscow. "There are so many things to be concerned about."
When he was appointed in June last year, de Villepin made reducing unemployment levels his priority. Laudable enough. Comparing himself perhaps to Napoleon, his hero, on the eve of his finest victory at Austerlitz, the prime minister has been talking ever since in military metaphors to signal his commitment to the battle. "We will be fighting on every front," he has said. One of his first steps was to draw up the law that has united France in protest. It was rushed through parliament by decree in February, but nonetheless, as he travelled to Moscow, de Villepin was in a buoyant mood.
On his plane, unaware of what was still to come, the tall, patrician prime minister joked with aides about how small Nicolas Sarkozy is. He pointed out that France has never had a short president. De Villepin has loathed the interior minister ever since the 1995 election, when Sarkozy betrayed Chirac by siding with his rival, Edouard Balladur.
One of his cruellest jibes is to describe his diminutive opponent as the "hooker" in a game of rugby, who does all the work, getting the ball out of the scrum, only to see it passed onto a taller, faster figure who comes running out of nowhere to score the try. No points for guessing who that is. As he greeted Russian businessmen at a dinner at the start of his Moscow visit on the evening of February 13, Russian words tripped off his tongue and, as a band struck up the Marseillaise that evening, he might have imagined himself already in the presidential Elysée Palace: his guests that evening awarded him a bust, cast in bronze, of himself.
Forces beyond his control were conspiring against his dream of glory, however. Instead of Austerlitz, the battle was beginning to look more like de Villepin’s Waterloo.
As he strutted about in Moscow, the aircraft carrier Clemenceau was rumbling across the Indian Ocean. She was supposed to have been dismantled in an Indian port. Then Greenpeace complained about her dumping asbestos on the Third World, and Chirac ordered the ship home. France, for once, would have to deal with her own toxic waste. There could hardly be a better symbol of the country’s decrepitude and lack of direction and, for a proud French public, the spectacle of this naval relic and symbol of past glories being treated with such lèse-majesté was deeply unpleasant. De Villepin’s approval rating began to fall.
Further humiliation followed. Within a month of his return from Moscow, the student protests began in earnest. Again and again, millions have taken to the streets to vent their fury against the "Kleenex job contract" that would make workers as expendable as tissue paper. The battle of the employment law, with three-quarters of French youth saying they wanted civil-service jobs and not the risks of the open market – was the latest in a string of calamities that started when voters turned down the proposed EU constitution in May last year, in a humiliating referendum result for Chirac, who had argued it was France’s best defence against what he called the "new communism" – the liberal economic savagery practised by Britain.
Barely a month later came the news that London, not Paris, had been awarded the 2012 Olympics. Then, no sooner had Chirac recovered from a stroke than rioting broke out in the immigrant suburbs, in which 10,000 cars and 200 buildings were burnt; an orgy of destruction that focused global attention on the racial malaise in Europe’s heart.
It was these pockets of want in the banlieues, literally "places of banishment", that de Villepin was trying to help with his employment law. To some, however, it was akin to putting a plaster onto a wooden leg, a futile exercise demonstrating the extent to which de Villepin was a symptom of France’s problems – not a solution.
So much for de Villepin. But what of the other potential French presidents? Ségolène Royal, though she has been part of the political scenery for at least two decades, has the advantage of somehow appearing fresh. Her glossy hair, blue eyes and blinding white teeth make her look more like a glamorous television anchorwoman than a politician.
And her sense of style adds to the clichéd fantasy of the French woman able to manage the double burden of career and children while enjoying her cheese and wine without putting on weight.
"It has not always been easy," she told me when we met over lunch in Poitiers, the capital of the Poitou-Charentes region, her fiefdom. Her youngest daughter, 14-year-old Flora, she said, was "stressed out" by all the attention being heaped on the Royal family. This was not just because of the army of cameramen and journalists who follow Ségo wherever she goes.
Hollande, her partner, had been dreaming about being a candidate in the elections long before he realised – reluctantly – that the mother of his children stood a better chance: opinion polls have put her streets ahead of "Monsieur Royal", as his enemies call him. "Doubtless the French are thirsty for novelty," was how a tetchy Hollande described the appeal of his partner.
One can only wonder what effect all this has had on the home life of France’s star political couple. Whether or not Hollande ends up endorsing the mother of his children, there is no shortage of other party barons who believe they are more entitled than her to represent the left at the next election, among them such has-beens as Lionel Jospin, the former Trotskyist schoolteacher and prime minister who was supposed to have retired from politics after his humiliating defeat in the last presidential election in 2002.
Even more outraged by Royal’s entry into the ring was Laurent Fabius, the balding former prime minister who has been cogitating since childhood on how to win the presidency. After being told the news, he snidely asked: "Who is going to look after the children?" He may come to regret that remark. "It was hurtful and humiliating," said Royal.
Royal has had her revenge, however, robbing other would-be Socialist presidential contenders of the media limelight they so crave. She was followed, like a movie star, around the Paris agricultural show by a cortege of photographers on February 28, while a bewildered-looking Lang was seen wandering about by himself. For Royal, the show, a highlight of the political calendar, was an important test: how would she fare in this mucky, male-dominated milieu?
Kitted out that day in what looked suspiciously like a designer safari suit, Royal took to chatting with farmers and breeders with a nonchalant ease that would have impressed even Chirac, a veteran and master of the event who happily munches his way around all the stalls, sampling as much sausage, cheese and meat as is handed to him.
One man in particular will remember Royal’s visit. Jean-Michel Lemétayer, the president of a powerful agricultural union, returned from a hearty lunch to find Royal in front of his stand. In private, Royal had criticised Lemétayer for not being aggressive enough in seeking compensation from the government for chicken farmers affected by bird flu. Now she let him have it. "There are farmers’ families who cannot make ends meet and who need aid," she said. "Get angry!" she snapped. So much for the soft voice.
One of eight children of a strict French army colonel, she developed a reputation for radicalism at ENA that earned her the nickname "the barefoot énarque" – a reaction, perhaps, against the views of an extremely conservative father. She came under the guidance of François Mitterrand, the last Socialist president, who steered her into a series of increasingly important jobs in the education and health ministries – although apparently not, as rumour would have it, into his bed. Her stands against television violence, pornography and teenage pregnancy brought her into the limelight, winning her a following among women voters.
After the death of Mitterrand in 1996 she faded from view but, in regional elections two years ago, she erupted again onto the stage with a stunning conquest of the presidency of Poitou-Charentes, a region she has made the springboard for her presidential ambitions.
The realisation that Royal is for real has finally dawned on Sarkozy as well. On January 19, he was on a flight to Le Havre when an aide pointed to a picture of him surrounded by 18 men in dark suits – his entourage at the interior ministry. Only one woman was partially visible in the picture. He was furious and got on the phone to his office. "Why hasn’t Roselyne been appointed yet?" he asked, referring to Roselyne Bachelot, the Euro MP he had selected for a senior post on the executive council of the Union for a Popular Movement party (UMP), of which he is president. He was told about some procedural hitch. "I don’t give a damn," he shrieked.
Sarkozy, 51, has every reason to feel vulnerable when it comes to the female vote. Last year, Cecilia, his wife and chief adviser, left him for another man, complaining that he had treated her like "furniture". He was livid. Cecilia had been one of his chief political props. In a strategy that revolutionised the political landscape in a country whose leaders had always zealously guarded their privacy, he was always happy to parade his family in front of the cameras.
The glamorous power couple were often seen cycling together. Even their son, Louis, had an unwitting role in this Gallic version of Camelot: if Sarkozy, in a meeting in his office, wanted to impress upon a visitor his human side, he would get an aide to roll a ball through the door. Little Louis would run after it into the office to his adoring papa.
This approach ended up backfiring on him when the French press, habitually hesitant about intruding into the private lives of politicians, began covering the break-up of his relationship in lurid detail, citing the important role that Cecilia had played in his entourage. Sarkozy was furious, but not inconsolable. It emerged that he too was seeing somebody else – a young political journalist.
In January he persuaded Cecilia to return to him from New York, where she had moved in with Richard Attias, a well-connected ad man. By February, though, the relationship was once again on the rocks and the couple had a blazing row in Sarkozy’s interior-ministry office on March 1. The next day, Cecilia left for New York.
On International Women’s Day, Sarkozy announced that he was setting up a website for women. By then, Bachelot had been installed as the UMP’s secretary-general. He gave another signal of his interest in promoting women by supporting the party’s selection of Françoise de Panafieu, a Conservative MP and former minister, as a candidate for mayor of Paris.
When it comes to the female vote, however, Sarkozy can hardly compete with Royal. In a country where women’s wages are notoriously lower than men’s, young, working women, according to one pollster, see Ségo as a "career weapon" whose success in politics will help them "personally to progress in their companies". For many women, no doubt, she also represents revenge on the ambient machismo exemplified by Chirac’s outburst at a European summit with Margaret Thatcher in 1988: "What does she want, this housewife – my balls on a tray?"
Things have been complicated in other ways, too, for Sarkozy. Even before the latest unrest, he was struggling to escape being too closely identified with the failings of the regime – a difficult manoeuvre, considering that he is such a prominent member of the government. Much as he approved of de Villepin’s employment law, it was not the radical overhaul that he believes the labour market needs, and the watered-down version that went into effect after Chirac’s intervention did not seem to merit such popular uproar. It did, however, afford him the chance of grabbing centre stage in finding a compromise between students and union leaders. But it did not bode well for what economists such as Nicolas Baverez, the author of France in Freefall, believe are the minimum reforms necessary to halt the decline: abolition of the 35-hour week, deregulation of the labour market, the reduction of government and the streamlining of health and other public services.
By contrast, the employment row has done no harm to Royal. Unlike some of the other socialist heavyweights, she declined to take part in any of the protests but made a point of announcing that she would not recognise the first employment contract in her region. At the same time, she made clear in an interview that she was not against loosening the labour code but opposed the way de Villepin had rammed his law through parliament without consultation – an example, she said, of "stupidity" that had resulted in "a general mess". To say any more at this stage could undermine her long-term position. Until her nomination is secure, she is likely to keep quiet. Quite where the Socialists intend to lead the people is unclear: their policies won’t be unveiled until the publication of their manifesto later this year.
It is difficult to be optimistic about France’s future, particularly when hearing what Jacques Godfrain, a Conservative MP, had to say when he emerged from a lunch with Chirac and his ministers in February. "There was a strong sense of agreement to the effect that France is ungovernable. But that she likes being governed." Others saw greater wisdom in General Charles de Gaulle. "Mayhem, that’s the sickness of the French," he once said. "I don’t think we will ever cure them of it." It is hard to imagine, sometimes, why anyone would try.
Candidate: Segolene Royal
The star of the opinion polls is an unorthodox Socialist contender because of her support for Tony Blair and her opposition to the 35-hour week. Although she served under the former Socialist President Mitterrand, she manages to seem fresh; and her campaigns against child pornography and conjugal violence have won her a following among women voters, which she is using, despite opposition from ‘dinosaurs’ within her own party, as a springboard for her presidential ambitions.
Chances of being elected: good
Candidate: Nicolas Sarkozy
The most likely standard-bearer for the centre-right, Sarkozy advocates ‘reconstruction’ and ‘rupture’ with the past. He would deregulate the labour code, streamline health and other public services and reduce the size of the government. As the interior minister, he has courted votes with his tough talk on crime and immigration.
Chances of being elected: good
Candidate: Dominique de Villepin
A protege of Jacques Chirac, he represents a discredited system. Despite a disastrous effort to soften the rigid labour code, he has vowed to protect the French social model against the ‘Anglo-Saxon’ free-market impulse. A believer in restoring France’s lost glory, he thinks destiny has selected him as his country’s saviour.
Chances of being elected: poor
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2099-2121725_1,00.html