People calm down NBC called CNN poll Bullshit......CNN been acting mighty funny lately .
NBC’s Corrected Version Of CNN Poll Gives Clinton A Four-Point Lead Over Trump
By Sean Colarossi on Tue, Sep 6th, 2016 at 7:55 pm
The CNN poll "assumes an electorate we've never seen before," Chuck Todd said.
A national poll released Tuesday by CNN is getting a lot of media attention simply because it shows Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by two points – a statistical dead heat.
The survey has some liberals panicking, many Trump supporters celebrating and plenty of pundits claiming this race has shifted toward the spray-tanned GOP nominee.
All of these reactions are premature and fail to take into account some important factors.
First and foremost, the CNN survey included a +4 Republican sample, when the electorate in the most recent presidential election was +7 Democratic. According to Huffington Post’s Pollster, the Democrats continue to have an edge of seven points when it comes to party identification.
Add the fact that no election since 1980 has had an electorate with more Republicans than Democrats, and the CNN poll quickly seems like an outlier.
NBC News noticed these flaws and adjusted the CNN survey using 2012’s electorate – which is likely to resemble 2016 – and it gave Clinton a four-point edge over Trump, which is much more in line with other polling.
As Chuck Todd pointed out, the CNN poll “assumes an electorate we’ve never seen before.”
Todd noted that CNN assumes half the electorate will be whites without a college degree – a group Trump does quite well with – when this group only made up roughly a third of voters in 2012.
Predicting the outcome of presidential elections isn’t just about one poll, though.
An NBC News/Survey Monkey poll released on Tuesday with a sample size of over 32,000 registered voters – compare that to CNN’s sample of about 800 likely voters – showed Clinton with a solid six-point lead over Trump.
With all polls taken into account, including the flawed CNN survey, Clinton still leads Trump by an average of about six points.
more at http://www.politicususa.com/2016/09...n-cnn-poll-clinton-four-point-lead-trump.html
NBC’s Corrected Version Of CNN Poll Gives Clinton A Four-Point Lead Over Trump
By Sean Colarossi on Tue, Sep 6th, 2016 at 7:55 pm
The CNN poll "assumes an electorate we've never seen before," Chuck Todd said.
A national poll released Tuesday by CNN is getting a lot of media attention simply because it shows Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by two points – a statistical dead heat.
The survey has some liberals panicking, many Trump supporters celebrating and plenty of pundits claiming this race has shifted toward the spray-tanned GOP nominee.
All of these reactions are premature and fail to take into account some important factors.
First and foremost, the CNN survey included a +4 Republican sample, when the electorate in the most recent presidential election was +7 Democratic. According to Huffington Post’s Pollster, the Democrats continue to have an edge of seven points when it comes to party identification.
Add the fact that no election since 1980 has had an electorate with more Republicans than Democrats, and the CNN poll quickly seems like an outlier.
NBC News noticed these flaws and adjusted the CNN survey using 2012’s electorate – which is likely to resemble 2016 – and it gave Clinton a four-point edge over Trump, which is much more in line with other polling.
As Chuck Todd pointed out, the CNN poll “assumes an electorate we’ve never seen before.”
Todd noted that CNN assumes half the electorate will be whites without a college degree – a group Trump does quite well with – when this group only made up roughly a third of voters in 2012.
Predicting the outcome of presidential elections isn’t just about one poll, though.
An NBC News/Survey Monkey poll released on Tuesday with a sample size of over 32,000 registered voters – compare that to CNN’s sample of about 800 likely voters – showed Clinton with a solid six-point lead over Trump.
With all polls taken into account, including the flawed CNN survey, Clinton still leads Trump by an average of about six points.
more at http://www.politicususa.com/2016/09...n-cnn-poll-clinton-four-point-lead-trump.html