Clinton and Obama battle for Wisconsin

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<font size="5"><center>Clinton and Obama battle for Wisconsin</font size></center>

By David Lightman, William Douglas
and Margaret Talev | McClatchy Newspapers
Posted on Monday, February 18, 2008

DE PERE, Wis. — Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton carried their rivalry Monday across this ice-crusted state, where notoriously hard-to-predict Democratic voters are primed to give one of them a significant boost on Tuesday.

The candidates fought over who may have stolen whose speech lines, over debates and over economic policies, but it remained unclear which of them will wind up with the victory that each so badly wants.

Polls suggest that the race is close. Clinton made last-minute adjustments in her Monday schedule so she'd spend all day campaigning here, instead of leaving early as originally planned. Obama's wife, Michelle, stumped from Milwaukee to the Minnesota border, while her husband headed for a late-evening rally in Beloit.

Clinton and Obama both presented themselves as populists in the tradition of former candidate John Edwards, whose support — and whose voters — both covet.

At St. Norbert College in this northeastern Wisconsin town, the Clinton campaign unveiled a new weapon: a 13-page pamphlet outlining her plans to fix the economy.

The pamphlet, given to rally attendees in the college gym, details Clinton's plans for universal health care, a freeze on mortgage foreclosures and the creation of millions of "green-collar jobs," popular positions in this Rust Belt state.

Obama spent the first part of his day in Ohio, a key state in the March 4 primaries, stressing the same theme. His backers passed out copies of his 46-page economic plan, first released last week, and he told a Youngstown State University audience that "people are desperate out there. I meet them every day, see them here in town."

He said that if he were president, he'd try to amend the North American Free Trade Agreement and adjust U. S. trade policy with China in ways that strengthened the other nations' labor, environmental and safety standards. He also pledged to prod U.S. companies to keep jobs from going abroad.

Also vying here Tuesday are Republicans John McCain and Mike Huckabee. Though McCain is far ahead of the former Arkansas governor nationally, both campaigned here Monday and McCain will rally his forces in suburban Milwaukee Tuesday morning.

McCain's biggest challenge is avoiding embarrassment: Polls show Huckabee within striking distance here, though even if he were to win, McCain would retain a huge lead in delegates nationally.

Most attention in Wisconsin is on the Democrats, as Obama and Clinton search for momentum going into March 4 contests in Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island.

Obama spent part of Monday defending himself against charges that, in a Saturday night speech in Milwaukee, his words were almost identical to those of Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick in 2006.

At a news conference, he said that while "I'm sure I should have" given Patrick credit, Obama added: "I've written two books, wrote most of my speeches. Deval and I do trade ideas all the time. He's occasionally used lines of mine, and I, at a Jefferson-Jackson dinner in Wisconsin, used words of his."

Obama then tried to drag Clinton into this fray, saying he's noticed that she "on occasion had used words of mine as well. ...When Senator Clinton says it's time to `turn the page' in one of her stump speeches or that she's `fired up' and `ready to go,' I don't think that anybody suggests that somehow she's not focused on the issues ..."

Wisconsin voters seemed largely oblivious to the fracas. At downtown Milwaukee's Pabst Theater, as they waited to hear Obama's wife, Michelle, a lot of people were still making up their minds.

George Warner, a retiree, and his wife, Carol, a social worker, are torn. "In the (Bill) Clinton years, we were happy. Everybody seemed to have money," said Carol Warner. "But Obama has a lot of good ideas, and he's very frank."

Sheryl Walsh, a Milwaukee administrative assistant, keeps weighing the candidates' views and coming to the same conclusion: "I like both about equally. Nothing stands out."

But some voters didn't like one thing: sniping between the candidates. The one who seems to do it most will not get their votes.

"The negative stuff just doesn't do it. I liked Hillary Clinton until she started what the media calls the smugness and self-righteousness," said Mary Ann Beaumont, a Shorewood accountant.

An Obama victory would continue the winning streak he started two weeks ago. Since Super Tuesday, on Feb. 5, he's swept all eight primaries and caucuses, and, in the media at least, there's a hint of a bandwagon beginning to roll.

Clinton, too, sees opportunity here. This state has demographics that the New York senator likes: lots of working-class people earning less than $50,000 and large blocs of white women.

She didn't mention Obama by name in De Pere, but when someone in the audience asked about the pamphlet, the senator said: "I think there is a difference between speeches and solutions. When I put out something like this, I really want you to hold me accountable."

Clinton's pamphlet features a populist pitch that seems aimed squarely at the working-class voters she badly needs here, in Ohio and eventually in Pennsylvania, which votes on April 22.

"Over the past five years, big corporations and special interests have been given a free pass to profit, often at the expense of the American worker," it reads. "As president, Hillary will make it a priority to scale back special benefits and subsidies to these corporations and put those resources to work for our economy again."

Clinton also blasted Obama for ducking her. She challenged him to debate here, and when Obama wouldn't agree, she launched a statewide 30-second spot saying, "He's hiding behind false attack ads."

Obama is fighting back with an ad noting that "after 18 debates, with two more coming, Hillary says Barack Obama is ducking debates? It's the same old politics, of phony charges and false attacks."


http://www.mcclatchydc.com/election2008/story/28028.html
 
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Can Clinton brake Obama's roll in Wisconsin?</font size></center>



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By Margaret Talev | McClatchy Newspapers
Posted on Sunday, February 17, 2008


WASHINGTON — Wisconsin's blue-collar and liberal traditions run through American pop culture and politics. When the state that gave us Cheeseheads, "Laverne & Shirley" and political progressives holds its presidential primary Tuesday, the results could help determine whether Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama gets the Democratic nomination.

Clinton led there by 9 points early this month, according to one major survey, but two more recent polls show Obama now with a small lead.

Even if Wisconsin turns into a blowout, their rivalry almost certainly will endure through bigger primaries March 4 in Texas and Ohio. Nevertheless, Wisconsin's often historic role in shaping past presidential elections makes it a state worth watching.

President Lyndon Johnson dropped his re-election bid in 1968 when he realized that he was poised to lose Wisconsin's Democratic primary to Gene McCarthy.

Eight years earlier, John F. Kennedy's win in the state's primary over next-door-neighbor Hubert H. Humphrey of Minnesota helped establish the credibility of his national appeal. In 1992, Wisconsin Democrats narrowly chose Bill Clinton over California's Jerry Brown, pointing the way for the national party's ultimate choice.

In general elections the nation's 18th-largest state, with about 5.6 million residents, also has been a battleground. It chose Democrat John Kerry over President Bush by only 50-49 percent in 2004, and Democrat Al Gore over Bush by about 5,000 votes in 2000.

Clinton and Obama each have constituencies in the state, said Barry Burden, a professor of political science at University of Wisconsin, Madison.

"It's a lot of working-class whites without college educations, who are social moderates and responsible Midwesterners," Burden said. Manufacturing makes up more than one-fourth of the state's industry. These voters are a core part of Clinton's constituency.

At the same time, Burden said, "you do have that progressive, reformist element, and I think the antiwar element is tied up in that." That profile fits key parts of Obama's coalition.

One issue that unites the two groups is a desire for expanded health-care coverage. That helps explain why health care was such a prominent topic in Wisconsin this past week, featured in both campaigns' television ads. The Clinton camp also challenged Obama to debate her not least so she can highlight that his health-insurance plan wouldn't cover as many Americans as hers would.

Two polls taken since Feb. 8 put Obama ahead of Clinton, but only by 4 percentage points, at or near the surveys' statistical margins of error. While that isn't much of a lead, Clinton had led by 9 points on Feb. 6-7, according to an American Research Group poll released Feb. 8, so the trend is clear.

What seems to have pushed Obama ahead in Wisconsin is not his more liberal reputation, Burden said, but "the energy coming off of the other states" where he's beaten Clinton in eight straight contests starting Feb. 9.

Obama also has some advantages in Wisconsin: his home state, Illinois, is next door. Wisconsin Gov. Jim Doyle backs him. And Obama's been campaigning there more vigorously than Clinton has. Last Tuesday, while awaiting results from the "Potomac Primary" of Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia, Clinton went to Texas, but Obama went to Wisconsin.

"Where better to affirm our ideals than here in Wisconsin, where a century ago the progressive movement was born?" he told voters in Madison that night. "It was rooted in the principle that the voices of the people can speak louder than special interests, that citizens can be connected to their government and to one another, and that all of us share a common destiny, an American dream."

With Obama pulling ahead, Clinton is refocusing her attention on the state after concentrating most recently on Texas and Ohio. Former President Clinton campaigned there on Valentine's Day and the candidate herself was scheduled to be there from Saturday through Election Day.

"I think they want to prevent a complete blowout in Wisconsin," Burden said. "They don't want to say they're competing seriously because they're likely to lose Wisconsin. At the same time, they don't want to fall terribly behind in the delegate count, which is looking more and more important each day."

Mark Jefferson, the executive director of the Republican Party of Wisconsin, said he thought that Obama's surge in Wisconsin was being overestimated.

"I wouldn't underestimate the Clinton machine. I think too many people are at this point," he said. "Voters in both parties here are accustomed to throwing curve balls, and I think the Clinton team is more formidable than a lot of people want to give them credit for."

As for the Republican contest Tuesday between national front-runner John McCain and Mike Huckabee, Jefferson admitted that there isn't as much enthusiasm.

He said that Wisconsin Republicans were still coming to terms with their remaining choices. "Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson had a lot of support last year," he said.

"Now, with the field narrowed down to McCain and Huckabee, there's a lot of consternation, a lot of thinking about a couple candidates who till now hadn't had strong polling numbers here."

Come the general election, he said, "I think it's going to be a tight race no matter who the Democrats put up."

McClatchy Newspapers 2008

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/election2008/story/27824.html
 
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<font size="6"><center>How Obama Won Wisconsin</font size></center>


RealClearPolitics HorseRaceBlog
By Jay Cost
February 20, 2008


Hillary Clinton suffered a stinging blow last night, losing Wisconsin by 15 points. What is worrisome for her is that Obama seems to have broken into several of her core voting groups. This is the first real evidence of momentum we have seen on the Democratic side.

After the Potomac Primary last week, some argued that Obama had already begun to build momentum because of his large victories in Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia. I thought this talk was hasty. Given the large number of African American voters in each contest, and given that white voters in all three primaries were quite wealthy - Obama's sizeable victories did not come as a surprise. In particular, 39% of all Maryland Democrats and 39% of all Virginia Democrats claimed to make $100,000 or more per year. So, it is hard to argue that Obama's success among whites was due to him peeling off portions of the Clinton coalition. What seems more likely is that he won handily because his best voting blocs were in good supply that day.

The same cannot be said for Wisconsin. Just 20% of Wisconsin Democratic voters claimed to make $100,000 or more per year. So, there is strong evidence that, at least last night, Obama expanded his voting coalition. Consider the following chart, which uses the exit polls to review Obama's margin of victory with key groups in the non-southern states in comparison to his performance with those same groups in Wisconsin last night.

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So, for instance, [n]Obama won white males in the non-South[/b] by 8 points prior to the Potomac Primary. Last night, he won them by 26 points, yielding a net increase of 18 points.

As you can see, Obama enjoyed significant expansions in three of his four strongest demographic groups. And, though it appears he did worse among white Protestants - the difference between the two is possibly due to statistical sampling error. So, all in all, Obama did no worse with any of his groups - and with most of them he did much better.

Meanwhile, he was able to peel away portions of Clinton's core electorate. To appreciate this, consider the following chart, which reviews Clinton's margin of victory over Obama in the non-South.

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These numbers tell the tale succinctly. Clinton suffered significant loses across many of her core constituencies. White women, Democrats, union workers, downscale voters, and white Catholics all drifted to Obama last night - some so much that Obama actually won them.

Let's cross-reference the exit polls with a look at the actual vote returns. The following chart reviews Wisconsin counties according to median white income. Specifically, it divides 71 of Wisconsin's 72 counties into three tiers according to wealthiest, poorest, and middle. It then looks at Obama's performance in each tier. (Note that no returns were available for Clark County by the time I put this chart together; most counties had complete returns, and the ones with partial returns were all above 70% reporting).


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As you can see, Obama did better the wealthier the whites in the country were. However, he does very well across all tiers. This confirms what the exit polls indicate, Obama was able to cut into Clinton's voting blocs. We would probably have expected her to win the poorer counties, but in fact she lost them.

I was also interested in looking at vote returns according to population density. If Clinton was doing well with economically "down scale" voters - it stands to reason that her strength in a state like Wisconsin should be in counties that are sparsely population. Obama, on the other hand, should do well in states with dense population centers. This dichotomy probably would not work in a state with large minority populations because of Clinton's strength with Hispanics and urban whites. However, in a state like Wisconsin - we might expect Clinton to do better in rural areas and Obama to do better in urban ones.

I tested this hypothesis by again dividing counties into three tiers according to population density. The following chart reviews the results.


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Again, we see a similar phenomenon. While Obama did best in the dense counties like Dane and Milwaukee, he also won a majority in the middle-density counties and the sparse counties. There seems to have been no urban-rural divide. The state went to Obama regardless of population density.

Is this a momentum effect? The word "momentum" has been tossed around way too much this cycle, which is funny because prior to tonight there has really been little evidence of momentum at all! So, what of last night? Are these bona fide expansions in his voting coalition, or was Wisconsin following the same pattern that the previous states have followed? It is impossible to be sure. I have found that Obama does well with whites in states where there are few African Americans. Duke's Brendan Nyhan has found the same trend. White voters in homogeneously white states seem to be more amenable to him than whites in diverse states. Wisconsin is a state with few African Americans. This probably gave Obama a boost last night. If this was a major factor - perhaps some of this apparent momentum effect would "wash out." On the other hand, could the racial homogeneity of Wisconsin alone really account for these huge shifts? That's a tough pill to swallow.

Unfortunately, we simply do not yet have enough data to give a definitive answer. Ideally, we could answer the question if we had enough observations to make a prediction of how Obama should have done in Wisconsin, given the results in past states. We could then compare the actual results to the prediction and see whether the difference between the two is statistically significant. That difference, if it is significant, could be a momentum effect. Unfortunately, there have not been enough states to admit of precise predictions for a state like Wisconsin.

My sense is that a momentum effect of indeterminable magnitude emerged tonight. That is, Obama's victories - most recently last week in the Potomac Primary - contributed to the size of last night's victory, though he would have done very well if there had been no momentum. This is the first Democratic contest where I think a case like this can be made. Until last night the typical ebb-and-flow of each candidate's demographic strengths could account for the actual results.

If there is a sizeable momentum effect, Clinton should be very nervous. Demographically, Texas has a lot in common with California, except that there are more African Americans. This bodes well for Obama - and if momentum is now in the equation, Clinton could be in real trouble. If you take the margin of her California victory, factor in the larger African American base, and factor in a 5 to 7 point shift in the white vote to Obama - that win would probably become a loss.



http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/02/how_obama_won_wisconsin.html
 
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