A new scientific study published Monday suggests hurricanes are getting so much stronger that five categories may not be enough to capture their intensity.
A new standard, Category 6, would more accurately describe storms with 192 mph winds or higher, the study says.
There have been five since 2013, all in the Pacific. But the Gulf of Mexico, along with the Philippines and Southeast Asia, is an area where those storms are already a concern.
"... The most intense (tropical cyclones) are becoming more intense and will continue to do so as the climate continues to warm," said Michael Wehner, a computer modeler at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and James Kossin, a climate scientist with First Street Foundation, in the study published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).
The risk of a Category 6 storm would double in the Gulf once the climate reaches 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, and triple at 4 degrees. As of summer 2023, the earth was at 1.5 degrees above those levels.
The five categories of the Saffir-Simpson scale, created in the 1970s, have come under more and more debate as severe weather threats increase exponentially across the U.S. The scale only measures wind speed, which — as Gulf Coast residents well know — is only one of many hurricane threats.
Once a storm is expected to reach Category 5's 157 mph winds, "the level of wind hazard conveyed by the scale remains constant regardless of how far the intensity extends beyond (it)," the study says.
For example, in 2023, two storms rapidly strengthened to Category 5 winds in about a day's time.
Scientists have long debated a new scale that would better portray the risk from storm surge, tornadoes and flooding. So far, there are no plans from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to change the scale.
Federal forecasting changes are underway, though, with the National Hurricane Center reevaluating the infamous cone of uncertainty since storm impacts are often severe well outside of it.
A new standard, Category 6, would more accurately describe storms with 192 mph winds or higher, the study says.
There have been five since 2013, all in the Pacific. But the Gulf of Mexico, along with the Philippines and Southeast Asia, is an area where those storms are already a concern.
"... The most intense (tropical cyclones) are becoming more intense and will continue to do so as the climate continues to warm," said Michael Wehner, a computer modeler at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and James Kossin, a climate scientist with First Street Foundation, in the study published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).
The risk of a Category 6 storm would double in the Gulf once the climate reaches 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, and triple at 4 degrees. As of summer 2023, the earth was at 1.5 degrees above those levels.
The five categories of the Saffir-Simpson scale, created in the 1970s, have come under more and more debate as severe weather threats increase exponentially across the U.S. The scale only measures wind speed, which — as Gulf Coast residents well know — is only one of many hurricane threats.
Once a storm is expected to reach Category 5's 157 mph winds, "the level of wind hazard conveyed by the scale remains constant regardless of how far the intensity extends beyond (it)," the study says.
For example, in 2023, two storms rapidly strengthened to Category 5 winds in about a day's time.
Scientists have long debated a new scale that would better portray the risk from storm surge, tornadoes and flooding. So far, there are no plans from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to change the scale.
Federal forecasting changes are underway, though, with the National Hurricane Center reevaluating the infamous cone of uncertainty since storm impacts are often severe well outside of it.
