Biden's 1979 moment
On the foreign policy front, President Biden's re-election bid is playing out similarly to that of the last Democratic president who failed to win a second term: Jimmy Carter.
Why it matters: Three destabilizing overseas crises have taken place during Biden's presidency: The chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and now, the prospect of a regional war in the Middle East.
- The chaos across the globe is leading many Americans to conclude that we're facing a moment of historic danger, as Axios CEO Jim VandeHei and co-founder Mike Allen describe it.
- That sense of fear and dread — on top of widespread economic anxiety — is very bad news for any president running for re-election.
- Carter's demise was fueled by the 1979 Iranian Revolution that ousted the pro-American shah for an Islamic fundamentalist regime still in power today. The Iranian regime's holding of dozens of American hostages dominated the headlines — and drained Carter's political capital — through his re-election campaign.
- In December 1979, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, prompting the Carter White House to take a harder line with the Soviets. But that newfound toughness did little to change American perception that the world was adrift.
- Once again, a Democratic president is facing wars fueled by Iran (led by Hamas and Hezbollah, its proxies in the Middle East) and Russia. Once again, American hostages are being held — and the U.S. looks like it's struggling to deter its enemies.
- Even though most Democratic voters side with Israel — with its support among Democrats growing since the Oct. 7 terrorist attack — the pocket of opposition is concentrated among the youngest voters.
- After Biden offered stalwart support for the Jewish state in the aftermath of the attack, a wave of stories reported Arab and Muslim Americans threatening to withhold their support for the president after backing him in 2020.
- It's hard to balance both factions within the Biden coalition, given the enormity of their differences. The clear majority of Democrats are pro-Israel and recoil from equivocation over terrorism, but in a close race, Biden will need to turn out some left-wing voters who have been critical of his support for Israel's military campaign in Gaza.
- Biden also faces the prospect of losing some progressives to independent candidate Cornel West.
Zoom in: Voters' concern with Biden is mainly over his age and ability to handle the stress of such a taxing job. The major vulnerability for Carter, who faced a serious primary threat from Sen. Ted Kennedy in 1980, was his political inexperience — raising worries he was in over his head as overseas crises worsened.
Reality check: In a best-case scenario for Biden — one in which Israel effectively takes out Hamas without a wider war and Ukraine gains ground repelling Russia — he could receive a commander-in-chief bump.
- Biden's one-day trip to Israel, along with his public show of solidarity, earned him plaudits from pro-Israel voters and Israelis across the political spectrum — even though he didn't get a political bounce back home.
- His trip to Kyiv this year was highlighted in a campaign ad touting his presidential engagement.
- And Biden aides say the president polls well when it comes to his responses to the crises in Israel and Ukraine, and on the issue of withdrawing from Afghanistan.
- Biden will need to convince Americans he's up for the job. His message, so far, has been clear. But his actions will have to speak louder than words — in an increasingly volatile world.
