Actuarial Life Table - Probability of an average American dying within one year at every age

[Costanza]

A period life table is based on the mortality experience of a population during a relatively short period of time. Here we present the 2020 period life table for the Social Security area population, as used in the 2023 Trustees Report (TR). For this table, the period life expectancy at a given age is the average remaining number of years expected prior to death for a person at that exact age, born on January 1, using the mortality rates for 2020 over the course of his or her remaining life.

Period Life Table, 2020, as used in the 2023 Trustees Report

Exact age​	Male Death probability a	Number of lives b	Male Life expectancy	Female Death probability	Number of lives	Female Life expectancy
0​	0.005837	100,000	74.12	0.004907	100,000	79.78
1​	0.000410	99,416	73.55	0.000316	99,509	79.17
2​	0.000254	99,376	72.58	0.000196	99,478	78.19
3​	0.000207	99,350	71.60	0.000160	99,458	77.21
4​	0.000167	99,330	70.62	0.000129	99,442	76.22
5​	0.000141	99,313	69.63	0.000109	99,430	75.23
6​	0.000123	99,299	68.64	0.000100	99,419	74.24
7​	0.000113	99,287	67.65	0.000096	99,409	73.25
8​	0.000108	99,276	66.65	0.000092	99,399	72.25
9​	0.000114	99,265	65.66	0.000089	99,390	71.26
10​	0.000127	99,254	64.67	0.000092	99,381	70.27
11​	0.000146	99,241	63.68	0.000104	99,372	69.27
12​	0.000174	99,227	62.69	0.000123	99,362	68.28
13​	0.000228	99,209	61.70	0.000145	99,349	67.29
14​	0.000312	99,187	60.71	0.000173	99,335	66.30
15​	0.000435	99,156	59.73	0.000210	99,318	65.31
16​	0.000604	99,113	58.76	0.000257	99,297	64.32
17​	0.000814	99,053	57.79	0.000314	99,271	63.34
18​	0.001051	98,972	56.84	0.000384	99,240	62.36
19​	0.001250	98,868	55.90	0.000440	99,202	61.38
20​	0.001398	98,745	54.97	0.000485	99,159	60.41
21​	0.001524	98,607	54.04	0.000533	99,111	59.44
22​	0.001612	98,456	53.12	0.000574	99,058	58.47
23​	0.001682	98,298	52.21	0.000617	99,001	57.50
24​	0.001747	98,132	51.30	0.000655	98,940	56.54
25​	0.001812	97,961	50.39	0.000700	98,875	55.58
26​	0.001884	97,783	49.48	0.000743	98,806	54.61
27​	0.001974	97,599	48.57	0.000796	98,732	53.66
28​	0.002070	97,406	47.66	0.000851	98,654	52.70
29​	0.002172	97,205	46.76	0.000914	98,570	51.74
30​	0.002275	96,994	45.86	0.000976	98,480	50.79
31​	0.002368	96,773	44.97	0.001041	98,383	49.84
32​	0.002441	96,544	44.07	0.001118	98,281	48.89
33​	0.002517	96,308	43.18	0.001186	98,171	47.94
34​	0.002590	96,066	42.29	0.001241	98,055	47.00
35​	0.002673	95,817	41.39	0.001306	97,933	46.06
36​	0.002791	95,561	40.50	0.001386	97,805	45.12
37​	0.002923	95,294	39.62	0.001472	97,670	44.18
38​	0.003054	95,016	38.73	0.001549	97,526	43.24
39​	0.003207	94,725	37.85	0.001637	97,375	42.31
40​	0.003333	94,422	36.97	0.001735	97,215	41.38
41​	0.003464	94,107	36.09	0.001850	97,047	40.45
42​	0.003587	93,781	35.21	0.001950	96,867	39.52
43​	0.003735	93,445	34.34	0.002072	96,678	38.60
44​	0.003911	93,096	33.46	0.002217	96,478	37.68
45​	0.004137	92,732	32.59	0.002383	96,264	36.76
46​	0.004452	92,348	31.73	0.002573	96,035	35.85
47​	0.004823	91,937	30.87	0.002777	95,788	34.94
48​	0.005214	91,493	30.01	0.002984	95,522	34.04
49​	0.005594	91,016	29.17	0.003210	95,237	33.14
50​	0.005998	90,507	28.33	0.003476	94,931	32.24
51​	0.006500	89,964	27.50	0.003793	94,601	31.35
52​	0.007081	89,380	26.67	0.004136	94,242	30.47
53​	0.007711	88,747	25.86	0.004495	93,852	29.59
54​	0.008394	88,062	25.06	0.004870	93,430	28.72
55​	0.009109	87,323	24.27	0.005261	92,975	27.86
56​	0.009881	86,528	23.48	0.005714	92,486	27.01
57​	0.010687	85,673	22.71	0.006227	91,958	26.16
58​	0.011566	84,757	21.95	0.006752	91,385	25.32
59​	0.012497	83,777	21.21	0.007327	90,768	24.49
60​	0.013485	82,730	20.47	0.007926	90,103	23.67
61​	0.014595	81,614	19.74	0.008544	89,389	22.85
62​	0.015702	80,423	19.03	0.009173	88,625	22.04
63​	0.016836	79,160	18.32	0.009841	87,812	21.24
64​	0.017908	77,828	17.63	0.010529	86,948	20.45
65​	0.018943	76,434	16.94	0.011265	86,032	19.66
66​	0.020103	74,986	16.26	0.012069	85,063	18.88
67​	0.021345	73,479	15.58	0.012988	84,037	18.10
68​	0.022750	71,910	14.91	0.014032	82,945	17.34
69​	0.024325	70,274	14.24	0.015217	81,781	16.58
70​	0.026137	68,565	13.59	0.016634	80,537	15.82
71​	0.028125	66,773	12.94	0.018294	79,197	15.08
72​	0.030438	64,895	12.30	0.020175	77,748	14.36
73​	0.033249	62,919	11.67	0.022321	76,180	13.64
74​	0.036975	60,827	11.05	0.025030	74,479	12.94
75​	0.040633	58,578	10.46	0.027715	72,615	12.26
76​	0.044710	56,198	9.88	0.030631	70,603	11.60
77​	0.049152	53,685	9.32	0.033900	68,440	10.95
78​	0.054265	51,047	8.77	0.037831	66,120	10.31
79​	0.059658	48,277	8.25	0.042249	63,618	9.70
80​	0.065568	45,397	7.74	0.047148	60,931	9.10
81​	0.072130	42,420	7.25	0.052545	58,058	8.53
82​	0.079691	39,360	6.77	0.058685	55,007	7.98
83​	0.088578	36,224	6.31	0.065807	51,779	7.44
84​	0.098388	33,015	5.88	0.074052	48,372	6.93
85​	0.109139	29,767	5.47	0.083403	44,790	6.44
86​	0.120765	26,518	5.07	0.093798	41,054	5.99
87​	0.133763	23,316	4.70	0.104958	37,203	5.55
88​	0.148370	20,197	4.35	0.117435	33,299	5.15
89​	0.164535	17,200	4.02	0.131540	29,388	4.76
90​	0.182632	14,370	3.72	0.146985	25,522	4.41
91​	0.202773	11,746	3.44	0.163592	21,771	4.08
92​	0.223707	9,364	3.18	0.181562	18,209	3.78
93​	0.245124	7,269	2.96	0.200724	14,903	3.51
94​	0.266933	5,487	2.75	0.219958	11,912	3.27
95​	0.288602	4,023	2.57	0.239460	9,292	3.05
96​	0.309781	2,862	2.42	0.258975	7,067	2.85
97​	0.330099	1,975	2.28	0.278225	5,237	2.68
98​	0.349177	1,323	2.15	0.296912	3,780	2.52
99​	0.366635	861	2.04	0.314727	2,657	2.37
100​	0.384967	545	1.93	0.333610	1,821	2.23
101​	0.404215	335	1.83	0.353627	1,214	2.09
102​	0.424426	200	1.73	0.374844	784	1.96
103​	0.445648	115	1.63	0.397335	490	1.84
104​	0.467930	64	1.54	0.421175	296	1.72
105​	0.491326	34	1.45	0.446446	171	1.61
106​	0.515893	17	1.36	0.473232	95	1.50
107​	0.541687	8	1.28	0.501626	50	1.40
108​	0.568772	4	1.20	0.531724	25	1.30
109​	0.597210	2	1.13	0.563627	12	1.21
110​	0.627071	1	1.05	0.597445	5	1.12
111​	0.658424	0	0.98	0.633292	2	1.03
112​	0.691346	0	0.92	0.671289	1	0.95
113​	0.725913	0	0.85	0.711567	0	0.88
114​	0.762209	0	0.79	0.754261	0	0.80
115​	0.800319	0	0.74	0.799516	0	0.74
116​	0.840335	0	0.68	0.840335	0	0.68
117​	0.882352	0	0.63	0.882352	0	0.63
118​	0.926469	0	0.58	0.926469	0	0.58
119​	0.972793	0	0.53	0.972793	0	0.53
a Probability of dying within one year. b Number of survivors out of 100,000 born alive. Note: The period life expectancy at a given age for 2020 is the average remaining number of years expected prior to death for a person at that exact age, born on January 1, using the mortality rates for 2020 over the course of his or her remaining life.

The Social Security area population is composed of: (1) residents of the 50 States and the District of Columbia (adjusted for net census undercount); (2) civilian residents of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Guam, American Samoa, and the Northern Mariana Islands; (3) Federal civilian employees and persons in the U.S. Armed Forces abroad and their dependents; (4) non-citizens living abroad who are insured for Social Security benefits; and (5) all other U.S. citizens abroad.

Actuarial Life Table

Actuarial Life Table

www.ssa.gov

She ain't got to retire but she's gotta get the hell up outta there.

She'll be 74 by the end of the next presidential term. The average 74 year old American has a 3.7% chance of dying within the year. That's 1 out of every 27. And what are the odds Democrats get the White House back in 2028? Far from certain. At that point we have to wait until she is 78 for a Democrat to fill that seat. At that point the odds of death within that year are up to 5.4%-- One in 20. Doing my own math, I think that's more than a 20% chance of dying between 74 and 78-- 1 out of every five people.

It is a stupid system but the consequences are serious. The court has a 6-3 margin. Clarence will step down by 2028, mark my words if this shit comes to pass. The odds are Sonia Sotomayor will live to see her 80s and she'll be able to make valuable contributions to society. But the odds are not good enough for her to continue to do so as a Supreme Court justice.

 

[Costanza]

77 is the last age at which the average American man is more likely to live to see his next birthday than to die before it.

 

[Costanza]