Primary turnout surges as 2.8 million vote early statewide
Ahead of Election Day on Tuesday, Texas is already seeing what voter data experts are calling a historic primary turnout.During the 10 days of early voting, roughly 2.8 million people have voted so far in either the Republican or Democratic primary. More people have cast ballots than in any other recent midterm primary, and voter data experts say they expect about the same number of people to show up on Election Day.
The surge appears to be tied, in part, to a highly competitive Democratic primary that voter data analysts say is too close to call based on early vote numbers alone.
Garrett Herrin, CEO of Votehub, said the contest remains exceptionally tight.
"I'm not telling you anything you don't know, right? But the race is razor thin," Herrin said.
Herrin said early vote patterns do not show one side dominating geographically, making the outcome difficult to predict.
"There isn't any sort of dramatic geographic imbalance that clearly signals that one side is running away with it. Instead, turnout looks broad and competitive, and that's what makes it difficult to call based on early vote data alone," Herrin said.
County-by-county data compiled by Ryan Data suggested the jump in turnout is not being driven mainly by first-time voters. Instead, analysts said it is coming from voters who typically only participate in November elections but now want a say in the primary.
The data shows 13% of GOP primary voters have only voted in November elections. On the Democratic side, that share is much higher — 28% of early voters in the Democratic primary have only voted in November elections.
Derek Ryan, who compiled the data, said that shift is the defining feature of the race so far.
"Now they've decided that, 'Hey, there's a contested Senate race in the Democratic primary. Maybe now is the time for me to make my voice heard in that race,'" said Ryan.
Ryan’s data also suggests the age breakdown of early voters has not changed much this year. Just 17% of Republican primary voters are under 50. The Democratic primary electorate is younger, with 41% of early voters so far under the age of 50.
