UPDATE: Donald Trump Takes Office as the 47th US President

I'm still trying to understand who are the able-bodied people who are working and getting Medicaid?

So Medicaid is administered by each state. The FEDS provide some funding for the program (enrollees and providers), but the states make the final decision on reimbursements to providers and who can participate. Enrollment is based on an income threshold so if you work and your job doesn't provide health insurance and you meet the income thresholds you could potentially qualify.

Folks without a job can qualify in some states, but I believe they are pushing to make this a requirement.

Medicaid provides health and long-term care coverage to 83 million low-income children and adults in the United States. Medicaid is administered by states within broad federal rules and jointly funded by states and the federal government through a federal matching program. Because states have some flexibility to determine which populations and services to cover, how to deliver care and how much to reimburse providers, there is variation across states in program spending and the share of residents covered by the program.

State-Level Context for Federal Medicaid Cuts of $625 Billion and Enrollment Declines of 10.3 Million

Rhiannon Euhus, Elizabeth Williams, Alice Burns, and Robin Rudowitz
Published: May 16, 2025

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Medicaid Watch
The Energy & Commerce Committee passed a reconciliation bill out of committee on May 14 after 26.5 hours of debate. Based on draft reconciliation language, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released preliminary estimates showing the proposals would reduce federal Medicaid spending by $625 billion. While there are a number of policy changes, three changes account for the vast majority of the savings: requiring states to implement work requirements for the expansion group, increasing barriers to enrolling in and renewing Medicaid coverage, and limiting states’ ability to raise the state share of Medicaid revenues through provider taxes. Building on earlier KFF analysis, this analysis puts this magnitude of federal funding cuts into context by showing how the cuts relate to states’ budgets and exploring the potential effects on Medicaid enrollment by state. Cuts of $625 billion will force states to make tough choices: maintain current spending on Medicaid by raising taxes or reducing spending on other programs; or cut Medicaid spending by covering fewer people, offering fewer benefits, or paying providers less.

This analysis allocates the CBO’s estimated reduction in federal spending across states based on KFF’s state-level data and where possible, prior modeling work, and explores the implications of those cuts for states’ choices about financing Medicaid. Beyond the spending implications, CBO estimates that the bill would decrease Medicaid enrollment by 10.3 million people in 2034, suggesting that most of CBO’s estimated savings stem from reduced enrollment. The CBO’s enrollment reduction is also allocated across the states in this analysis. However, anticipating how states will respond to changes in Medicaid policy is a major source of uncertainty in CBO’s cost estimates. Instead of making state-by-state predictions, CBO estimates the percent of the affected population that lives in states with different types of policy responses. For example, different states might choose to implement a work requirement with reporting requirements that are easier or harder to comply with. While the variation in responses across states could affect both spending and enrollment estimates, this analysis illustrates the potential variation by showing a range of enrollment effects in each state, varying by plus or minus 25% from CBO’s midpoint estimate.
The findings show the implications of the cuts in a single year using the average of the CBO 10-year score, but in practice, the effects will vary by year and grow over time. For example, the work requirements provision accounts for more than $300 billion of the savings but does not take effect until 2029 and this provision would only affect states that adopted the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Medicaid expansion. This analysis illustrates the increase in taxes or decrease in education per pupil that states would face if they used either option to offset the full amount of federal reductions; in practice states would likely adopt a range of options in response to federal reductions. (CBO estimates assume that in aggregate, states would replace roughly half of the reduced federal funds with their own funds). To the extent that states do not offset reduced federal funds, states could see reductions in state Medicaid spending tied to lower enrollment. Additionally, CBO’s current estimate does not include all provisions in the Energy and Commerce reconciliation bill, so it is possible that effects on spending and enrollment could differ from what is reported here.

Key Take-Aways

  • The three biggest sources of federal Medicaid savings in CBO’s preliminary estimate of the Energy and Commerce reconciliation package account for nearly 90% of the total savings and include:
    • Mandating that adults who are eligible for Medicaid through the ACA expansion meet work and reporting requirements ($300.8 billion);
    • Repealing the Biden Administration’s rule simplifying Medicaid eligibility and renewal processes ($162.7 billion); and
    • Establishing a moratorium on new or increased provider taxes ($86.8 billion).
  • Provisions that would only apply to states that have adopted the ACA expansion account for $374.2 billion, or 60% of the total federal savings.
  • Federal cuts to states of $625 billion over 10 years (or $62.5 billion per year) would represent 20% of total state-financed Medicaid spending per resident. By state, the cuts as a share of Medicaid spending per resident range from 6% in Wyoming and 8% in Florida to 50% and 48% in Louisiana and Kentucky, respectively.
  • Proposed federal cuts represent 4% of state taxes per resident. If states opted to raise tax revenues to offset the entire amount of federal Medicaid reductions states would need to increase taxes by 4% overall, with state-level increases ranging from 1% in Kansas and Wyoming to 11% in Louisiana and 10% in Kentucky.
  • States could instead make cuts to other state programs to offset federal Medicaid reductions. Proposed federal cuts represent 13% of state education spending per pupil. If states opted to cut education spending, the largest source of expenditures from state funds, to offset the entire amount of federal Medicaid reductions, cuts per pupil would range from 2% in Wyoming and 3% in Kansas to 36% in Louisiana and 32% in Kentucky.
  • CBO estimates that 10.3 million people will lose Medicaid but that reflects state responses in the aggregate.
  • The most heavily affected states include: Washington, Virginia and Montana. In each of these states, Medicaid enrollment could decrease by 15% to 32%.
Figure 1

CBO Estimates of Potential Federal Medicaid Cuts in the House Energy and Commerce Reconciliation Bill

1-year average estimate of federal spending cuts, by policy
Total Medicaid Cuts:$62.5B​
Work Requirements ($30.1B)
Prescription Drugs ($290M)
Other ($2.2B)
Eligibility Redeterminations for ACA Group ($4.9B)
Provider Taxes ($8.7B)
Eligibility Rule ($16.3B)
Note: Dollar amounts reflect the average of the 10-year Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates. See Methods in "State-Level Context for Federal Medicaid Cuts of $625 Billion and Enrollment Declines of 10.3 Million" for more details.
Source: KFF analysis of CBO Preliminary Estimates of Energy & Commerce Committee Subtitle D, Part I - Medicaid. Get the dataDownload PNG
KFF.org

Figure 2

Context for Federal Medicaid Cuts in the House Energy and Commerce Reconciliation Bill

$62.2 billion in federal Medicaid cuts per year as a share of state Medicaid spending per resident, state taxes per resident, and state education spending per pupil
20%
4%
13%​
State Medicaid spending per resident
State taxes per resident
Education spending per pupil​
Note: Spending cuts reflect the average of the 10-year Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates less the $290 million in prescription drug savings. See Methods of "State-Level Context for Federal Medicaid Cuts of $625 Billion and Enrollment Declines of 10.3 Million" for more information.
Source: KFF analysis of 2024 Medicaid spending and enrollment data, U.S. Census Bureau 2024 Resident Population Data, U.S. Census Bureau 2023 Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections, National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO) 2024 State Expenditure Report, National Center on Education Statistics Digest of Education Statistics, K-12 Enrollment., CBO Preliminary Estimates of Energy & Commerce Committee Subtitle D, Part I - Medicaid. Get the dataDownload PNG
KFF.org

Figure 3

Federal Medicaid Cuts from the House Energy and Commerce Reconciliation Bill in Context, By State

As a percent of state Medicaid spending per residentAs a percent of state taxes per residentAs a percent of state education spending per pupil
As a percent of state Medicaid spending per residentAs a percent of state taxes per residentAs a percent of state education spending per pupil
US
Non-
Expansion States
Expansion

States
1020304050%
6%
8%
9%
9%
9%
11%
11%
13%
13%
15%
15%
15%
16%
16%
16%
16%
18%
19%
19%
20%
20%
20%
21%
21%
22%
22%
22%
23%
23%
25%
26%
26%
28%
28%
28%
28%
29%
30%
30%
31%
32%
32%
34%
36%
39%
39%
41%
42%
43%
48%
48%
50%​
WY
FL
TX
WI
KS
TN
GA
SC
MA
NY
SD
AL
MN
VT
NH
PA
MD
MS
AK
CO
CA
US
ME
NE
RI
NJ
ND
CT
MO
IA
VA
DE
IL
DC
OH
NC
IN
UT
WA
HI
ID
MI
OR
OK
AZ
NM
WV
AR
NV
MT
KY
LA​
Note: Spending cuts reflect the average of the 10-year Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates less the $290 million in prescription drug savings. See Methods of "State-Level Context for Federal Medicaid Cuts of $625 Billion and Enrollment Declines of 10.3 Million" for more information.
Source: KFF analysis of 2024 Medicaid spending and enrollment data, U.S. Census Bureau 2024 Resident Population Data, U.S. Census Bureau 2023 Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections, National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO) 2024 State Expenditure Report, National Center on Education Statistics Digest of Education Statistics, K-12 Enrollment., CBO Preliminary Estimates of Energy & Commerce Committee Subtitle D, Part I - Medicaid. Get the dataDownload PNG
KFF.org

Figure 4

Estimated Medicaid Enrollment Loss From House Energy and Commerce Reconciliation Bill, By State

As a Percent of Projected Baseline Medicaid Enrollment in 2034
Mid-point %Low-end %High-end %
US
Non-
Expansion States
Expansion

States
102030%
4%
4%
4%
5%
5%
5%
5%
6%
7%
8%
10%
11%
11%
11%
11%
11%
12%
12%
12%
13%
13%
13%
13%
13%
13%
13%
13%
13%
13%
13%
14%
14%
14%
14%
14%
14%
14%
15%
16%
16%
16%
17%
17%
18%
19%
19%
19%
19%
20%
21%
21%
25%​
SC
FL
GA
TN
AL
WY
WI
MS
TX
KS
NC
HI
MA
SD
CA
ME
VT
US
IN
NE
OH
CT
NV
NH
ID
MI
NM
MD
MO
AK
NY
OK
IA
RI
WV
PA
CO
LA
AR
AZ
IL
MN
NJ
DC
UT
OR
DE
KY
ND
MT
VA
WA​
Note: CBO’s estimated enrollment effects are allocated across the states proportionally to states’ estimated reduction in federal funding less the prescription drug savings. See Methods of "State-Level Context for Federal Medicaid Cuts of $625 Billion and Enrollment Declines of 10.3 Million" for more information. Recognizing that CBO’s estimates are average effects expected across all states and not a prediction of what will happen in specific states, the figure shows a range of enrollment losses for each state that is 25% higher (high end %) or lower (low end %) than the midpoint that reflects KFF's allocation of CBO's estimate.
Source: KFF analysis of 2024 Medicaid spending and enrollment data, U.S. Census Bureau 2024 Resident Population Data, U.S. Census Bureau, CBO Preliminary Estimates of Energy & Commerce Committee Subtitle D, Part I - Medicaid. Get the dataDownload PNG
KFF.org

Table 1

Context for Federal Medicaid Cuts in the House Energy and Commerce Reconciliation Bill, By State

Illustrative implications for state Medicaid spending, taxes, and education spending by state with $62.2 billion in federal Medicaid cuts in 2024
Page 1 of 3​

Table with 5 columns and 52 rows. Currently displaying rows 1 to 20.
[th]
State
[/th]
[th]
Federal Medicaid Cut
[/th][th]
Change in State Medicaid Spending Per Resident
[/th][th]
Increase in State Taxes Per Resident
[/th][th]
Decrease in State Education Spending Per Pupil
[/th]
[th width="4em"]
United States​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
$62.2B
[/td][td width="4em"]
20%
[/td][td width="4em"]
4%
[/td][td width="4em"]
13%
[/td]
[th width="4em"]
Alabama​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
$324M​
[/td][td width="4em"]
15%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
2%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
5%​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
Alaska​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
$194M​
[/td][td width="4em"]
19%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
6%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
13%​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
Arizona​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
$2.2B​
[/td][td width="4em"]
39%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
9%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
25%​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
Arkansas​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
$797M​
[/td][td width="4em"]
42%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
6%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
23%​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
California​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
$9.8B​
[/td][td width="4em"]
20%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
4%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
13%​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
Colorado​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
$999M​
[/td][td width="4em"]
20%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
5%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
16%​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
Connecticut​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
$879M​
[/td][td width="4em"]
23%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
4%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
18%​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
Delaware​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
$276M​
[/td][td width="4em"]
26%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
4%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
9%​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
District of Columbia​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
$287M​
[/td][td width="4em"]
28%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
3%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
NA​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
Florida​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
$1.2B​
[/td][td width="4em"]
8%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
2%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
7%​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
Georgia​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
$578M​
[/td][td width="4em"]
11%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
2%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
5%​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
Hawaii​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
$292M​
[/td][td width="4em"]
31%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
3%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
11%​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
Idaho​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
$283M​
[/td][td width="4em"]
32%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
4%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
10%​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
Illinois​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
$3B​
[/td][td width="4em"]
28%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
5%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
29%​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
Indiana​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
$1.4B​
[/td][td width="4em"]
29%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
5%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
13%​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
Iowa​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
$518M​
[/td][td width="4em"]
25%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
4%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
13%​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
Kansas​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
$175M​
[/td][td width="4em"]
9%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
1%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
3%​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
Kentucky​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
$1.7B​
[/td][td width="4em"]
48%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
10%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
32%​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
Louisiana​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
$1.7B​
[/td][td width="4em"]
50%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
11%​
[/td][td width="4em"]
36%​
[/td]​
Note: Spending cuts reflect the average of the 10-year Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates less the $290 million in prescription drug savings. See Methods of "State-Level Context for Federal Medicaid Cuts of $625 Billion and Enrollment Declines of 10.3 Million" for more information. Numbers may not sum to total due to rounding.
Source: KFF analysis of 2024 Medicaid spending and enrollment data, U.S. Census Bureau 2024 Resident Population Data, U.S. Census Bureau 2023 Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections, National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO) 2024 State Expenditure Report, National Center on Education Statistics Digest of Education Statistics, K-12 Enrollment., CBO Preliminary Estimates of Energy & Commerce Committee Subtitle D, Part I - Medicaid. Get the dataDownload PNG
KFF.org

Table 2

Estimated Medicaid Enrollment Loss From House Energy and Commerce Reconciliation Bill, By State

Page 1 of 3​

Table with 4 columns and 52 rows. Currently displaying rows 1 to 20.
[th]
State
[/th]
[th]
Mid-Point Enrollment Loss
[/th][th]
Low-End Enrollment Loss
[/th][th]
High-End Enrollment Loss
[/th]
[th width="4em"]
United States​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
10.3M
[/td][td width="4em"]
-
[/td][td width="4em"]
-
[/td]
[th width="4em"]
Alabama​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
54K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
40K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
67K​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
Alaska​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
32K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
24K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
40K​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
Arizona​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
356K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
267K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
445K​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
Arkansas​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
132K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
99K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
165K​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
California​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
1.6M​
[/td][td width="4em"]
1.2M​
[/td][td width="4em"]
2M​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
Colorado​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
165K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
124K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
207K​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
Connecticut​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
145K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
109K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
182K​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
Delaware​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
46K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
34K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
57K​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
District of Columbia​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
47K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
36K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
59K​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
Florida​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
192K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
144K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
240K​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
Georgia​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
96K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
72K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
120K​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
Hawaii​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
48K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
36K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
60K​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
Idaho​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
47K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
35K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
59K​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
Illinois​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
502K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
376K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
627K​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
Indiana​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
232K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
174K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
290K​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
Iowa​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
86K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
64K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
107K​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
Kansas​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
29K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
22K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
36K​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
Kentucky​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
276K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
207K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
345K​
[/td]​
[th width="4em"]
Louisiana​
[/th]​
[td width="4em"]
281K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
211K​
[/td][td width="4em"]
351K​
[/td]​
Note: CBO’s estimated enrollment effects are allocated across the states proportionally to states’ estimated reduction in federal funding less the prescription drug savings. See Methods of "State-Level Context for Federal Medicaid Cuts of $625 Billion and Enrollment Declines of 10.3 Million" for more information. Recognizing that CBO’s estimates are average effects expected across all states and not a prediction of what will happen in specific states, the figure shows a range of enrollment losses for each state that is 25% higher (high end %) or lower (low end %) than the midpoint that reflects KFF's allocation of CBO's estimate. Numbers may not sum to total due to rounding.
Source: KFF analysis of 2024 Medicaid spending and enrollment data, U.S. Census Bureau 2024 Resident Population Data, U.S. Census Bureau, CBO Preliminary Estimates of Energy & Commerce Committee Subtitle D, Part I - Medicaid. Get the dataDownload PNG
KFF.org

[TR]
[td]

Methods

[/td]

[/TR]
[TR]
[td]Data: This analysis uses the latest data available from various data sources to illustrate the potential impact of a $625 billion cut to federal Medicaid spending across states. Data sources include:
State Medicaid data from NASBO is reported for the state fiscal year (instead of federal fiscal year) and differs from other sources of Medicaid spending data. For that reason, this analysis uses spending per resident or pupil calculations to relate data across various sources.
Estimating Annual Federal Cut: This analysis uses the 10-year average federal spending reduction from CBO’s cost estimate, which represents 12% of federal Medicaid funding in FY 2024 and 9% of federal Medicaid spending over 10 years. The estimated $2.9 billion in federal savings due to prescription drug spending cuts are not allocated across the states as those savings are not achieved by shifting costs to states or reducing Medicaid enrollment.
Allocating $622 Billion Across States: This analysis allocates the one-year federal cut across states as follows:
  • Changes that would affect the Affordable Care Act (ACA) expansion group, including work requirements, were allocated across expansions states proportionally to federal spending on people eligible through the ACA expansion in FY 2024.
  • Ending the increased share of federal spending for states that adopt the Medicaid expansion in future years is allocated across the states that had not adopted the expansion as of May 2025.
  • Reducing expansion FMAP for certain states providing payments for health care for undocumented immigrants is allocated across the states that offer state-funded coverage for people regardless of immigration status proportionally to federal spending on people eligible through the ACA expansion in FY 2024.
  • All other provisions were allocated across states proportionally to their share of federal spending in FY 2024.
For all estimates, the federal share of spending is estimated using a 90% match rate for the ACA expansion group and the FY 2024 traditional federal match rates plus a 1.5 percentage point increase for the first quarter of FY 2024 (accounting for the final phase out quarter of the pandemic-era enhanced federal match rate) for the remaining eligibility groups.
Estimating State Medicaid Spending Per Resident: State spending per resident in FY 2024 is estimated using KFF’s projections of Medicaid spending under current law (assuming state spending is the difference between total spending and federal spending) and the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2024 estimates of resident population by state. The federal cuts per resident are then divided by state Medicaid spending per resident to estimate the federal cuts as a share of state Medicaid spending per resident.
Estimating State Taxes Per Resident: State taxes per resident in FY 2023 from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections (the latest data available and available for download here) is used as an estimate for state taxes per resident in FY 2024. The federal cuts per resident are then divided by state taxes per resident to estimate the federal cuts as a share of state taxes per resident.
Estimating State Education Spending Per Pupil: State education spending in FY 2024 is estimated from NASBO’s 2024 State Expenditure Report (the latest available data). The analysis combines state general fund and other state fund spending on elementary and secondary education in estimated state fiscal year 2024 to approximate state education spending in FY 2024. This is divided by the number of K-12 students enrolled in fall 2023 by state (the latest data available) from the National Center on Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics to get state education spending per pupil. The total federal cuts by state are then divided by the number of students by state to get an estimate of federal cuts per pupil. Finally, the federal cuts per pupil are then divided by state education spending per pupil to estimate the federal cuts as a share of state education spending per pupil.
Estimating Enrollment Effects: CBO’s estimated enrollment effects are allocated across the states proportionally to states’ estimated reduction in federal funding as estimated above. This reflects the fact that most of the provisions in the Energy and Commerce bill would reduce Medicaid spending by reducing Medicaid enrollment. Recognizing that CBO’s enrollment effects are the average effect and not an expected effect in any given state, the estimated enrollment effect for each state is shown as 25% higher or lower than the potential effect stemming from the CBO allocation.
Limitations: This analysis uses a one-year framework to put the magnitude of proposed Medicaid cuts into context but does not estimate the effects either nationally or for specific states. The most significant limitations of this approach are as follows.
  1. This analysis compares the average ten-year spending cuts to 2024 Medicaid spending and enrollment, 2023 state taxes per resident, and 2024 state education spending per pupil. The difference in time periods affects the estimates in two ways:
    • – The 10-year average effect includes the effects of the policies in years prior to implementation, which understates the true effect. For example, the 10-year average effect of work requirements is $30.1 billion, but the average effect between 2029 and 2034 is closer to $50 billion.
    • – Comparing the 10-year average effect to 2024 overstates the average effect because Medicaid spending and enrollment, state taxes per resident, and state education per pupil are all expected to grow over time. (That is why the federal cuts represent 12% of federal Medicaid spending in 2024 but only 9% of federal Medicaid spending between 2025 and 2034. However, there are no projections available for states’ taxes and spending on education in future years.)
    • – In balance, it is difficult to discern which type of error would be larger, so the comparison reflects an imprecise, but useful, approach to providing context for the spending cuts.
  2. CBO’s estimated reduction in federal spending is distributed across states based on the policies they had in place at the time of enactment and their Medicaid spending in FY 2024. The analysis does not account for future changes in state Medicaid policy. For example, the analysis does not account for the enrollment effects in states that had not expanded the ACA as of FY 2025 but would have done so in future years.
  3. If states do not offset reduced federal spending, states could see reductions in state Medicaid spending tied to lower enrollment. The magnitude of these state savings would depend on whether the coverage loss is for the expansion group (states pay 10%) or traditional Medicaid coverage (the traditional match rate). If states reduce spending on Medicaid, the total reduction in health spending would be greater than CBO estimate of federal spending reductions relative to estimated baseline spending.
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Who Is Covered by Medicaid?​


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Medicaid is an entitlement, meaning individuals who meet eligibility requirements are guaranteed coverage. The federal government sets minimum eligibility standards, but states may expand coverage beyond these minimum requirements. Federal minimum eligibility levels for children and pregnant women are set at 133% of the federal poverty level (FPL) ($35,630 for a family of 3 in 2024); however, median eligibility levels for these groups were 255% FPL for children and 207% FPL for pregnant women as of January 2023. As a result of the ACA, the median coverage level for parents and adults without dependent children is 138% FPL, but for states that have not adopted the ACA expansion, the median eligibility for parents was 38% FPL. In non-expansion states, adults without dependent coverage are not eligible for Medicaid coverage and those with incomes below poverty fall into the coverage gap.

Medicaid coverage is also available to certain individuals who qualify on the basis of being age 65 and older or having a disability. These coverage categories are referred to as “non-MAGI” pathways because they do not use the Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) financial methodology that applies to pathways for pregnant people, parents, and children with low incomes. In addition to considering advanced age, disability status, and income, many non-MAGI pathways also have asset limits. Medicaid generally covers individuals who qualify for Supplemental Security Income (SSI), but nearly all other non-MAGI pathways are optional, resulting in substantial state variation. Each group has different rules about income and assets, making eligibility complex (Figure 6).
 



For both diplomatic and strategic reasons, and as his wont, President Putin will not respond to President Trump’s unwise saber-rattling.

However, this means Trump will not be warned when he is making a grave mistake, as such a warning could compromise a strategy or the safety of Russians.

Nevertheless, Trump is headed toward some harsh realities, as the always blunt Medvedev explains.
 
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Schools got to be pissed about this...Esp. private white schools and other PWI's that make most of their tuition money from international students.....International students pay tuition in full and are not using loans...

Will be interesting how long this last....
Good luck on getting legacies to pay in instead. Maybe those Asian-Americans who felt discriminated can help.
 
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