If Knicks’ Mitchell Robinson is done for season, who could New York target to replace him?
By
Fred Katz
Dec 21, 2023
The plan was to be patient.
When the
New York Knicks figured ankle surgery would keep
Mitchell Robinson out at least eight to 10 weeks, the group planned to wait on its starting center’s return without scrambling for a short-term solution.
The team believed in
Isaiah Hartenstein, one of the
NBA’s best backup centers, and the usual third-stringer
Jericho Sims to pick up the slack. The timetable was set for Robinson to return with a good chunk of the season remaining. A re-evaluation was supposed to come between Feb. 5 and 19. And the Knicks were far from panic mode.
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They were not jostling to trade for another center, league sources said. The Knicks have been quiet on the phones this season, acknowledging that it’s not worth dealing a regular contributor if it doesn’t mean adding a significant upgrade.
But now, there is new context. It’s too early to know if the Knicks’ philosophy will change, but if the implications of Wednesday’s news are correct, how could it not?
The Knicks have applied for the Disabled Player Exception for Robinson,
The Athletic’s Shams Charania reported Wednesday shortly after New York polished off
a 121-102 victory over the
Brooklyn Nets.
Teams can apply for the DPE if one of their players suffers a long-term injury. It’s worth half the player’s salary (in this case, $7.8 million) and can act as a trade or free-agent exception, which we’ll explain in a moment.
For now, let’s concentrate on the shocking part of this: For a team to receive the DPE, the NBA’s doctors must determine that the player in question will more likely than not be out through June 15. Surely, the Knicks wouldn’t apply for this exception if they expected Robinson back far sooner than that. And such is the dagger to the heart of a team that sits at 16-11, fifth in the Eastern Conference, with a chance to win a playoff series for the second consecutive season.
The implication is that Robinson, who underwent surgery on his left ankle last week, could miss more than just eight to 10 weeks. And if his return is not expected until at least June 15, approximately four months longer than previously thought, the Knicks’ approach to the trade deadline has to change.
Hartenstein, Robinson’s backup, can’t play 48 minutes — though he may very well try, considering usual third-string center, Jericho Sims, is out for at least a week and a half with a sprained ankle. This team has aspirations beyond just making the playoffs. It wants to go deep into them once again.
That won’t be easy with Hartenstein, one of the league’s best backup centers, and either Sims or
Taj Gibson receiving all the minutes at center.
At some point, a move could come. The question is, what type makes sense?
The news is an unfortunate blow to Robinson, who was in the midst of his best-ever season, guarding at an NBA All-Defense level and pulling down a higher percentage of available offensive rebounds than any other player in the league. Few people in existence fill the 25-year-old’s role — top-notch rim protection and pick-and-roll defense along with relentless rebounding and screening — as well as Robinson does. And the ones who do, aren’t available on the trade market.
But there are centers the Knicks could target, some who could hypothetically play behind Hartenstein and others who could place the lefty back in his former reserve role.
First, let’s discuss the possibility of a new resource, the Disabled Player Exception, which the Knicks applied for this week. If the NBA grants them the DPE, they could sign or trade for a player who makes up to half of Robinson’s salary, $7.8 million, this season without sending any money out. If they sign a player using the DPE, it must be to a one-year contract. If they trade for one using the DPE, that player must be on an expiring contract.
Trade candidates, ones who either aren’t playing much or are on expiring contracts with losing teams, who fit the description include
Andre Drummond,
Bismack Biyombo and Xavier Tillman. The
Sacramento Kings employ a couple of veteran centers who don’t play much and would fit into the DPE:
Alex Len and
JaVale McGee. Meanwhile, the
LA Clippers are winning with
Mason Plumlee hurt but expect him back before the trade deadline. His contract makes him eligible for a DPE trade, too.
All of these players would presumably back up Hartenstein, not start over him. Of course, the Knicks could find help in other ways.
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They have
Evan Fournier’s big contract, which they could flip along with a draft pick or two for someone on a bulky salary, making a deal without expelling anyone from the current rotation.
It’s important to remember that if the Knicks scour the market for a Robinson replacement, they wouldn’t be looking for someone who plays his position as much as they’d need someone who can fill his role.
The
Chicago Bulls have cratered to the bottom of the Eastern Conference (though they’ve been winning ever since
Zach LaVine got hurt), which has made people wonder about the availability of their starting center,
Nikola Vučević. He plays the same position as Robinson but doesn’t contribute in the same way. Especially because of how head coach Tom Thibodeau values rim protection, an offense-first 7-footer who struggles both defending deep in the paint and outside of it is not the prototype for this roster.
New York’s defense has stumbled without Robinson, though the past two games, a couple of wins over the
Los Angeles Lakers and Nets, have been much improved. Adding a player like Vučević to the mix would not help — and that’s without even mentioning that he is under contract for two more years after this one, making around $20 million a season.
That player-friendly contract would eat into the Knicks’ flexibility once Robinson returns.
So let’s rule out the Vučević archetype, which also means saying no to cheaper options, such as
Christian Wood. The
Detroit Pistons can’t win a game and employ 472 centers, but they don’t fit New York’s preferred identity, either.
Jalen Duren is too good and too young to trade.
Isaiah Stewart received a contract extension before this season, which makes a deal for him nearly impossible. Marvin Bagley isn’t the defender the Knicks would require, and former No. 2 overall pick
James Wiseman is yet to prove he can contribute to a winning team.
So, who could the Knicks target?
Maybe they call the
Atlanta Hawks about
Clint Capela, considering the Hawks just extended promising, young big man
Onyeka Okongwu. Less than a week ago, Atlanta experimented with starting the two centers together, but Okongwu isn’t a power forward. Dealing Capela — who has another year on his contract, owed $20.6 million in 2023-24 and $22.3 million in 2024-25 — could open up playing time for the younger Okongwu. Atlanta is only 12-15 and could look to save money if it remains outside the playoff picture.
Of course, the Knicks would need to figure out how to handle Capela’s contract reaching into next season, considering they may have to flip him elsewhere in the upcoming summer.
Chances are a trade — if one comes at all — would not come tomorrow or the day after.
There’s a reason trades are rare in December and common in February, and it’s not just because the NBA is filled with procrastinators. Bartering around the league has been particularly quiet this autumn, partly because so many teams believe they have a chance at the playoffs. But as the standings widen and certain organizations with hopes of the No. 8 seed drop, buyers and sellers will become clearer.
On top of that, front offices are in no rush to trade any of their guys now, which means taking a common approach: If another general manager calls asking about a player, then the rule of thumb is to demand a boatload in return. The asking price can lessen as the Feb. 8 trade deadline nears.
For example, let’s say the Knicks were into
Goga Bitadze, who has filled in as the
Orlando Magic’s starting center with
Wendell Carter Jr. missing most of this season. Bitadze, who is on an expiring $2 million salary, has morphed from a stretch five into a physical paint presence under head coach Jamahl Mosley. He’d fit with New York.
But guess where else he fits … Orlando.
Why should the Magic entertain an offer for Bitadze today just to receive a couple of measly second-round picks when Carter Jr. could get hurt again or
Jonathan Isaac’s unfortunate injury history could pop up or another fluke occurrence could derail their big men? On top of that, Orlando is good, a spot above the Knicks in the standings. Why should it help out New York just for giggles?
That type of logic applies to others around the league, too.
Nic Claxton — a rim-diving, shot-swatting center who has oft drawn stylistic comparisons to Robinson — would provide a seamless fit in the Knicks’ starting role and is on an expiring $9.6 million salary. But the Nets love his game. They’re fighting for a Play-In Tournament spot and could keep him in free agency. History suggests that a crosstown trade of any type is less than likely, as well.
So the Knicks go down the list.
Zach Collins would be an ideal get, but the
San Antonio Spurs just extended him, meaning he is not eligible to be traded until after the season.
Kelly Olynyk, who’s on an expiring $12.2 million deal with the
Utah Jazz, doesn’t fit the defensive criteria the Knicks could want, but he would be a wonderful contributor with a second unit that loves to play fast, considering he’s not just a center with a jumper; he’s also a playmaker.
Precious Achiuwa is an energetic big man having a bounceback season and will be a restricted free agent next summer. The league is waiting to learn what direction the
Toronto Raptors take. They currently sit at 11-16 and have three upcoming free agents more consequential than Achiuwa:
Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby and
Gary Trent Jr.
If they decimate the roster come the deadline, maybe Achiuwa is gettable. But the Knicks also are
suing the Raptors in federal court. Would those two teams make a trade, given all the legal feud?
There’s another route the Knicks could take, too. If Hartenstein, who is a free agent after this season, plays well with Robinson hurt, he may become too expensive for the Knicks to re-sign in a reserve role. If New York wanted to, it could trade for someone it views as a short-term backup to Hartenstein and a long-term backup to Robinson.
Maybe the Knicks could pry away a player from a team at the bottom of the standings.
Nick Richards of the
Charlotte Hornets has a couple of years remaining at $5 million a pop after this one.
Daniel Gafford of the
Washington Wizards makes $12.4 million this season with $1 million raises in 2024-25 and 2025-26. Gafford, especially, would fit into the Robinson role well — a rim-protecting, athletic, picking-and-rolling center.
They could take a swing on
P.J. Tucker, who is out of the Clippers’ rotation, is imminently available and has succeeded as an undersized center before. But Tucker is also 38 years old, has faltered this season and has an $11.5 million player option for 2024-25 that he’d almost surely pick up.
Yet, even after dropping all these names, it’s too early to know how the market for centers forms.
One team with a formidable center could crash and burn, allowing the Knicks to swipe that guy away. Or maybe a young guy with another team usurps the role of a veteran center that could help the Knicks, which could change the market.
The situation in New York is evolving, too. Maybe Sims gets in a groove backing up Hartenstein once he returns. Or the Knicks could watch the next month and decide they’re too far away to sacrifice any of their future just to bring in a patch-up center.
Either way, the next few weeks will be about the big men already in New York: Hartenstein, Gibson and, once he returns from the ankle sprain, Sims. Maybe
Julius Randle plays some small-ball center. Heck, Thibodeau tried that for a few possessions in the Nets game.
