We finally have news about student loan forgiveness. The details are still rolling out and we'll know more in the coming weeks but below is my understanding as of today, along with some thoughts on how it will impact lawyers.
There's three main points that were
announced yesterday:
Student Loan Forgiveness. You get $10,000 of forgiveness if your adjusted gross income is below $125,000 (or $250,000 for married couples). The forgiveness goes up to $20,000 if you received Pell Grants. Income will be calculated based on your 2020 or 2021 adjusted gross income (presumably, whichever is lower) but your 2022 income will not count. Loans originated after June 30 are not eligible.
Student Loan Pause. The pause has been extended to December 31st, meaning payments will resume January 1st, 2023. It's the "final" extension.
New IDR Repayment Plan. A new IDR plan has been proposed (but isn't finalized) that would reduce payments on undergraduate loans to 5% of discretionary income. Graduate loans are also included but borrowers would pay 10% of discretionary income on the graduate loan portion. Loans will not see negative amortization, meaning your balance won't go up as long as you make the required monthly payments.
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Forgiveness: How does it impact lawyers?
Assuming that the final rules confirm that the relief is based on adjusted gross income from either 2020 or 2021, many Biglaw lawyers won't be eligible and there's not much you can do about it now to strategically qualify for forgiveness.
The big exception will be 1st and 2nd year associates who may be able to reach back to their law school income years in 2020 or 2021 to qualify for $10K of forgiveness.
Lawyers who aren't in Biglaw (i.e. the vast majority) may see forgiveness depending upon whether they meet those income thresholds, including recent grads who can reach back to law school income years in 2020 and 2021.
Keep in mind that qualifying for forgiveness appears to be a bright line test without phaseouts, meaning you'll see $10,000 in forgiveness if your AGI is $124,999 and $0 in forgiveness if your AGI is $125,001.
In either scenario, it underscores how lowering your AGI is typically a good move (meaning stuffing those retirement accounts typically pays dividends in other ways).
The other big winners will be rising 2Ls and 3Ls, since it seems that current students will be eligible for forgiveness too. However, if you are claimed as a dependent on someone else's tax return, forgiveness will be based on their income and not yours.
If you're not sure whether you received a Pell Grant as an undergraduate, you can log into your
studentaid.gov account and review your aid details.
Student Loan Pause: Is it really ending Jan 1st, 2023?
It seems like it. Never say never given the last two years but the Biden administration likely wants to try and move past this issue. Communication from the White House and Department of Education so far has been clear that the forgiveness is being paired with the restart of student loan payments.
Assuming payments begin on January 1st, 2023, we will have gone for nearly three years of 0% interest and suspended payments from the federal government. This has been fantastic for lawyers and I think many law students will find it shocking in the coming years to find out
they're paying a fixed interest rate of 7.54% on Direct PLUS loans.
The recent extension is also great for those of you pursuing PSLF or IDR forgiveness as you'll get another four months of credit towards those programs without having to make a payment.
Servicers are required by law to send out billing notices to borrowers at least three weeks before your first payment is due, so everyone will be looking late November / early December to see if those notices go out. If they do, it's highly likely payments will resume in January 2023.
New IDR Repayment Plan: Will this become the new default repayment plan?
Details on the new IDR repayment plan are sketchy. The plan is not yet finalized, so we're mainly speculating at this point. The White House said that borrowers will pay 5% of discretionary income toward undergraduate loans and 10% of discretionary income toward graduate loans. If you have a mix of undergraduate and graduate loans, you'll pay a weighted percentage of your discretionary income.
The new plan would also raise the amount of discretionary income from 150% of the poverty line to 225%, meaning your overall payments will be decreased.
Best of all, the plan will eliminate negative amortization. As long as you are making your required monthly payments, your balance will not go up, regardless of whether you're actually covering the interest payments with your monthly payment.
I could see a world where 1st year associates take advantage of the new IDR plan to make minimum payments on their loans during their first year since payments will be calculated based on their 3L income and the balance won't go up. Once we know more about the plan, we'll start running numbers to see what is optimal for recent grads.
Is this all going to get challenged and invalidated?
You can't be a lawyer without wondering whether Biden is overreaching in his use of executive power and this whole student loan forgiveness plan could come crashing down in the judicial system.
There are a lot of angry people who disagree with student loan forgiveness and who are motivated to challenge it. But, that's no different from any other decision by the federal government when it comes to spending money.
The big question at the moment seems to be whether anyone will have standing to sue. If you want to do a deep dive, there's a
law review article circulating that dissects the issue. The conclusion is that it seems unlikely anyone has standing.
But that doesn't mean that someone or group won't figure out a way to challenge the action, so we'll have to wait and see what happens.