ELECTIONS
The red wave that wasn’t: 5 takeaways from a disappointing night for the GOP
Donald Trump’s favored candidates prove a drag to Republicans, running well behind others in their party.
If not for the former president’s interventions, the night could have been a lot better for the GOP. | Francis Chung/E&E
News/POLITICO
By DAVID SIDERS
11/09/2022 03:31 AM EST
There was no red wave. Republicans, though still poised to take the House, under-performed, while Democrats breathed a huge sigh of relief.
It was a good night for Joe Biden, and a miserable one for Donald Trump.
Here are five takeaways from a midterm election the public polls, unlike two years ago, largely got right:
Trump is damaged goods
Trump is still the dominant figure in the Republican Party, and he’ll be the favorite to win the GOP nomination for president if, as expected, he runs again.
But Trump’s place in the party is far weaker after Tuesday. Truth is, if not for the former president’s interventions, the night could have been a lot better for the GOP.
Just look at how the most Trump-y candidates fared in states where more traditionalist Republicans were on the same ballot.
In Georgia, Herschel Walker was locked in a neck-and-neck contest with Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock. Gov. Brian Kemp, whose resistance to overturning the 2020 results infuriated Trump, easily defeated his Democratic opponent, Stacey Abrams.
In New Hampshire, Republican Don Bolduc lost to Sen. Maggie Hassan in a race that didn’t even look close, while Gov. Chris Sununu, who once referred to Trump as “fucking crazy,” cruised to reelection.
Trump’s preferred candidate in Ohio, J.D. Vance, did better, beating Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan by a comfortable margin in that state’s U.S. Senate race. But he came nowhere close to the margin that incumbent Gov. Mike DeWine, a more traditionalist Republican, put up.
In Arizona, it was still early, with only about half of the expected vote in. But Kari Lake was running behind Katie Hobbs. Even if she comes back to win, it will be a closer race than political professionals of both parties had predicted had a more traditionalist Republican, Karrin Taylor Robson, made it through.
“I mean, come on,” said Chuck Coughlin, a veteran Republican strategist based in Phoenix. “This should be a walk in the park for Republicans ... If Karrin Taylor Robson was the [gubernatorial] nominee, it would be an ass-kicking this cycle. But we just have such poor candidates who don’t appeal to a broader base.”
Besides, Coughlin said, “This is a non-presidential cycle, which tilts against the White House, tilts against the party in power. That’s not going to be the case in a presidential cycle. [Trump] doesn’t have that wind at his back anymore.”
Ron DeSantis, the Republican governor of Florida — and a potential rival to Trump — won reelection in a 20-point landslide. In 2020, Trump carried the state by just more than 3 percentage points.
Biden has a calendar problem
With Tuesday looking a lot better for Democrats than expected, it’s possible we’ll see some rallying around Biden. Presidents who suffered much more punishing midterms went on to win second terms.
So, give Biden his due. But it’s hard to argue that Democrats over-performed on Tuesday because of Biden rather than in spite of him. His approval rating, hovering around 41 percent, is dismal — and has been all year. He’ll turn 80 this month, and earlier this year, a majority of Democrats polled said they’d prefer someone else to be the party’s nominee.
But one thing Biden did have going for him was the calendar, and the reluctance of Democrats to do anything that might hurt him — and, by extension, the party — ahead of the midterms.
www.politico.com
.
The red wave that wasn’t: 5 takeaways from a disappointing night for the GOP
Donald Trump’s favored candidates prove a drag to Republicans, running well behind others in their party.
If not for the former president’s interventions, the night could have been a lot better for the GOP. | Francis Chung/E&E
News/POLITICO
By DAVID SIDERS
11/09/2022 03:31 AM EST
There was no red wave. Republicans, though still poised to take the House, under-performed, while Democrats breathed a huge sigh of relief.
It was a good night for Joe Biden, and a miserable one for Donald Trump.
Here are five takeaways from a midterm election the public polls, unlike two years ago, largely got right:
Trump is damaged goods
Trump is still the dominant figure in the Republican Party, and he’ll be the favorite to win the GOP nomination for president if, as expected, he runs again.
But Trump’s place in the party is far weaker after Tuesday. Truth is, if not for the former president’s interventions, the night could have been a lot better for the GOP.
Just look at how the most Trump-y candidates fared in states where more traditionalist Republicans were on the same ballot.
In Georgia, Herschel Walker was locked in a neck-and-neck contest with Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock. Gov. Brian Kemp, whose resistance to overturning the 2020 results infuriated Trump, easily defeated his Democratic opponent, Stacey Abrams.
In New Hampshire, Republican Don Bolduc lost to Sen. Maggie Hassan in a race that didn’t even look close, while Gov. Chris Sununu, who once referred to Trump as “fucking crazy,” cruised to reelection.
Trump’s preferred candidate in Ohio, J.D. Vance, did better, beating Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan by a comfortable margin in that state’s U.S. Senate race. But he came nowhere close to the margin that incumbent Gov. Mike DeWine, a more traditionalist Republican, put up.
In Arizona, it was still early, with only about half of the expected vote in. But Kari Lake was running behind Katie Hobbs. Even if she comes back to win, it will be a closer race than political professionals of both parties had predicted had a more traditionalist Republican, Karrin Taylor Robson, made it through.
“I mean, come on,” said Chuck Coughlin, a veteran Republican strategist based in Phoenix. “This should be a walk in the park for Republicans ... If Karrin Taylor Robson was the [gubernatorial] nominee, it would be an ass-kicking this cycle. But we just have such poor candidates who don’t appeal to a broader base.”
Besides, Coughlin said, “This is a non-presidential cycle, which tilts against the White House, tilts against the party in power. That’s not going to be the case in a presidential cycle. [Trump] doesn’t have that wind at his back anymore.”
Ron DeSantis, the Republican governor of Florida — and a potential rival to Trump — won reelection in a 20-point landslide. In 2020, Trump carried the state by just more than 3 percentage points.
Biden has a calendar problem
With Tuesday looking a lot better for Democrats than expected, it’s possible we’ll see some rallying around Biden. Presidents who suffered much more punishing midterms went on to win second terms.
So, give Biden his due. But it’s hard to argue that Democrats over-performed on Tuesday because of Biden rather than in spite of him. His approval rating, hovering around 41 percent, is dismal — and has been all year. He’ll turn 80 this month, and earlier this year, a majority of Democrats polled said they’d prefer someone else to be the party’s nominee.
But one thing Biden did have going for him was the calendar, and the reluctance of Democrats to do anything that might hurt him — and, by extension, the party — ahead of the midterms.
5 takeaways from Election Day exit polls so far
Inflation has been polling ahead of abortion in national and battleground state surveys for months. Now early exit polls show the same.
www.politico.com
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