Russia Shuts Off Gas to Ukraine = W. Europe Fears

QueEx

Rising Star
Super Moderator
<font size="5"><center>Gas bills may hit new high
after Russia cuts supplies</font size>

<font size="4">U.S. Regrets Russia's Decision</font size></center>
The Times (London)
By Carl Mortished, Jeremy Page in Moscow and Roger Boyes in Berlin
January 1, 2006

BRITISH households could be paying more for their gas after Russia cut supplies to Ukraine, triggering fears of an energy shortage across Europe.

Britain’s Energy Minister gave warning yesterday that the Kremlin’s decision to disconnect its former Soviet bloc ally could hit prices here. In an effort to calm the market, Malcolm Wicks said that there was no immediate threat to supplies. He added that the Government had opened diplomatic channels with both sides in the dispute.

But he cautioned: “It is, however, important that we understand the potential impacts of the negotiation for the European gas market, including the impact on prices.”



The row between the Kremlin and Ukraine centres on a proposed four-fold increase in charges for gas from Russia. A quarter of all EU gas is piped from Russia via Ukraine.

As soon as Ukraine’s supply was cut yesterday morning, Germany’s most powerful energy executive said that the row could create serious supply problems for Germany’s gas consumers. Burkhard Bergmann, head of E.ON Ruhrgas, the German utility group that also owns Powergen, said that he was looking into alternative supplies from Norway and the Netherlands, which would increase prices and put pressure on the British market.

“If the shortfalls are very large and continue for too long and the winter is tough, then we will come up against our limits too,” Herr Bergmann, who also has a seat on the supervisory board of Gazprom, said. There are fears that the row will escalate until elections are held in Ukraine in March.

British households have already suffered from surging utility bills, with gas and electricity prices inflated by last year’s 60 per cent rise in the price of oil. British Gas said last night that further rises were already inevitable because of increases in wholesale prices since September.

Three giant sub-sea Norwegian pipelines deliver a quarter of Germany’s gas consumption direct to the German coast. The Netherlands supplies almost a fifth of German demand while gas from Britain, which typically accounts for 7 per cent of German consumption, can be exported to Germany through the Interconnector pipeline linking Britain and Belgium. Because of heavy winter demand, gas is currently flowing from Belgium to Britain but a surge in demand from Germany could, in theory, encourage continental gas utilities to reverse the Interconnector flow, leading to severe price escalation in Britain.

“Germany can be supplied for more than two months from gas storage tanks in case of an emergency,” Martin Weyand, head of the Federal Association of German Gas and Water Companies, said. Britain is no longer self-sufficient in gas because of the accelerating depletion of North Sea gasfields. During winter months Britain needs to import gas from the Continent. A new pipeline is under construction linking Britain to Norway but will not open until 2007.

Surging energy prices in November forced leading chemical and building materials companies to cut output and, in some cases, cease operations after the cost of gas, which at one stage reached 155p per therm, made production uneconomic.

The United States said it regretted Russia’s decision. “Such an abrupt step creates insecurity in the energy sector,” Sean McCormack, a State Department spokesman, said.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-1966720,00.html
 

QueEx

Rising Star
Super Moderator
<font size="4"><center>"Kiev says it is being punished for its attempts to
become more independent from Moscow and
develop stronger ties with the West ...
Both the European Union and the United States
have expressed concern"</font size></center>



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QueEx

Rising Star
Super Moderator
<font size="5"><center>Turning off the pipes threatens to leave Putin
out in the cold</font size></center>


The Times
Analysis by Michael Binyon
January 3, 2005

RUSSIA’S action has caused an immediate political and economic crisis in both Eastern and Western Europe, dramatically underlining the key role energy supplies now play in power politics.

But the Kremlin’s action may backfire, damaging long-term relations with the West and throwing into question President Putin’s commitment to stable energy supplies. Ukraine’s attempts to win the backing of Western Europe in a showdown with Moscow are also a high-risk gamble that could leave it isolated, cold and industrially paralysed.

The Russian action could not come at a worse time — for both President Yushchenko of Ukraine and for President Putin. Russia took over the presidency of the G8 for the first time this year and Mr Putin wants to make energy security the main theme of the annual summit. Already he is under attack in the West for moves to curb democracy; the action by Gazprom will convince Western critics that Russia is unqualified to chair a meeting of industrial democracies. The Kremlin cannot distance itself from the highly politicised decision by Gazprom, the state-owned giant that is increasingly influential in Russian foreign policy. And it must be worried by the immediate reaction of Germany, its main partner in Europe, which said that cutting off the gas could harm economic relations with the West.

Investors may now be wary of trusting assurances from the Kremlin and will be concerned that Russia might try to use its muscle in other ways. Despite months of negotiations and clear warnings to Kiev in September by President Putin, the quadrupling of gas prices for Ukraine will be seen by businessmen and Western governments as precipitate and tantamount to blackmail. It will make Europe extremely wary of further increasing its dependence on Russian energy supplies.

There could be real doubts in Germany over the proposed new pipeline under the Baltic to bring in Russian gas.

Indeed, for the Kremlin, the move may prove as catastrophic as the Arab oil boycott of 1973, which left the West, and America in particular, determined never to be so dangerously reliant again on Arab oil.

But Ukraine cannot assume automatic backing from the West. Russia’s argument that it should pay market rates for its gas are powerful, especially as the old price of $50 (£29) was absurdly low and the proposed new price of $230 per 1,000 cubic metres is still lower than the rate for Western Europe. Ukraine says, after all, that it is now a market economy.

If Ukraine, as Russia claims, has indeed caused the sudden drop in supplies to the West by diverting them into its own network, this will cause uproar. Kiev denies the charge, though it says it will consider tapping into the export pipelines to pay transit costs.

Ukraine may also be criticised for turning down President Putin’s offer to delay any cut-off for three months, raising the suspicion that Kiev wants a showdown to highlight the constant pressure by a Russia that strongly opposes its moves to position itself closer to Nato and the EU.

It is no secret that the Orange Revolution has run into difficulties, with squabbles and splits in the Yushchenko Government; little would so unite the fractured country as the perception that Russia was trying to freeze it into submission. Ukraine has raised the stakes by threatening to increase the rent for the Russian Navy’s use of Sevastopol, the Black Sea port.

At heart, the row centres on deep emotional antipathy on each side. Many Russians are unreconciled to the loss of Ukraine, a Russian province for more than 300 years, and many Ukrainians are still deeply resentful of former Russian domination.

The Kremlin’s open backing for Mr Yushchenko’s opponent last year, its anger at the overturning of his initial victory and Ukrainian suspicions of Russian involvement in the poisoning of Mr Yushchenko have further soured relations.



http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,13509-1967618,00.html
 

Greed

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Russia and Ukraine strike deal to end gas dispute

everyone's friends again.

Russia and Ukraine strike deal to end gas dispute
By Dmitry Zhdannikov
Wed Jan 4, 2:26 PM ET

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia and Ukraine struck a face-saving deal on Wednesday to end a bitter dispute over gas prices that disrupted deliveries to Europe and cast doubt on Moscow's reliability as a supplier.

The EU welcomed the five-year pact between the former Soviet republics but still held talks on energy security after the sudden reduction earlier this week of Russian deliveries through Ukrainian pipelines, which supply a quarter of Europe's needs.

Russia's state gas monopoly Gazprom cut deliveries to Ukraine on January 1, demanding a fourfold price hike and heightening tensions a year after the election of pro-Western Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, accused in the West of using the dispute as a political tool against Ukraine just as Moscow assumes the annual presidency of the G8 industrialized nations, said the deal would guarantee gas supplies to Europe.

"This creates stable conditions for Russian gas supply to European customers for many years ahead," Putin told Gazprom chief executive Alexei Miller at a meeting.

Under the deal, Ukraine will pay an average of $95 per 1,000 cubic meters for gas imports from Russia and the Central Asian states of Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan -- up from about $50 now.

STRATEGIC POSITION

But Russia was able to exploit its strategic position at the hub of the Soviet gas pipeline network to charge a premium price of $230. It will sell less gas directly to Ukraine, freeing up more for export to European markets.

"Traditionally Central Asian gas is cheaper, so there won't be any shock for the Ukrainian economy," Miller told Putin.

Yushchenko also put a positive spin on the deal, saying it would wean Ukraine off Soviet-style barter and help build a modern market economy.

"Ukraine's economy is completely ready for new market conditions," Yushchenko said in a statement.

Based on a rough calculation, the gas deal could cost Ukraine an extra $2.9 billion this year.

Importantly for the supply security of major consumers like Germany, France and Italy, the two sides agreed to increase the gas transit fees Russia pays to Ukraine, the route taken by 80 percent of Russian gas pumped to European consumers.

"We do hope the agreement will ensure ... the long-term security of supply of gas to the European Union," Martin Bartenstein, economy minister of current European Union president Austria, said after a meeting of bloc officials.

But Bartenstein said the 25-nation EU must reduce dependence on Russia and other suppliers by becoming more energy efficient, producing more from renewable sources, and investing in the electricity grid and other infrastructure.

TOUGH TACTICS

Moscow's tough tactics reflect a new assertiveness on the part of Putin, who has presided over a strong recovery in Russia's economy since a financial crash in 1998.

But analysts in both Moscow and Kiev said Russia had acted heavy handedly, escalating a commercial dispute and rattling nerves in the West before climbing down and declaring victory.

"It is clear that Russia is stronger than Ukraine, that it owns the resources and that Ukraine has no real energy sovereignty, but Russia did not succeed in making its will felt," said independent Ukrainian analyst Oleksander Dergachev.

The United States and Europe are concerned Russia may have used gas as a political weapon to punish Yushchenko, who was swept to power in the popular "Orange Revolution" of 2004 and wants to lead his country toward NATO and EU membership.

Washington welcomed the deal. "One thing we hope emerges is the episode will stimulate longer-term efforts to increase the transparency, openness and efficiency in energy sectors of the region," said U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack.

Putin has used Gazprom, the world's largest gas company with a market value of $160 billion, to project some of the power that Moscow lost with the demise of the Soviet Union in 1991.

To that end he has enlisted foreign investors, who will soon be allowed to buy Gazprom shares -- an event which will make the gas giant the most valuable company that can be readily traded on the world's emerging markets.

Investors welcomed the deal, pushing the value of Gazprom's small London listing of American depositary shares up by 4.6 percent to $76.73. Gazprom's Russian shares were not traded due to the long New Year holiday.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060104/ts_nm/russia_ukraine_dc_60
 

Obadiah Plainman

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Registered
Re: Russia Claims The North Pole+Oil, Gas, & Diamonds

Russian oil giant Gazprom has shut off gas to the entire nation of the Ukraine at the start of the winter season no less. If not mistaken something similar happened to Georgia back in the winter of '05-'06.

Russia shuts off gas to Ukraine

pccw0.jpg


Russia has stopped all gas supplies to Ukraine after the collapse of talks to end a row over unpaid bills and prices.



Russia's gas giant Gazprom said it turned off the taps at 0700 GMT, when its contract to supply Ukraine ended.

Ukraine insists it has paid off its debts to Gazprom, but Russia contests this. The two countries have also failed to agree on a price for 2009.

The EU urged Russia and Ukraine to resume negotiations and not to let the dispute disrupt supplies to Europe.

A similar row between Gazprom and Ukraine at the beginning of 2006 led to gas shortages in several EU countries. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7806870.stm
 

QueEx

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Super Moderator
Re: Russia Claims The North Pole+Oil, Gas, & Diamonds

<font size="5"><center>

Deja Vu

All Over Again ???


</font size></center>
 

QueEx

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Super Moderator
Re: Russia Claims The North Pole+Oil, Gas, & Diamonds

<font size="3">
Mr. Barack, here's another one for you; the fuel supply of an ally threatened by a restless bear . . .

QueEx

</font size>
 

J-BOOGIE

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Something about Russia's "Resurgence in confidence" is making me a bit nervous. These guys are a such troublesome nuisance...
 

QueEx

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QueEx

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