Trump is losing, badly. Here is some data. This can change, but he's getting smoked right now.

Spectrum

Rising Star
BGOL Investor
Media is trash. They love him. He keeps people watching politics and that's good for their bottom line. They're gonna sell horse-race politics. he's going to try to cheat using the autocratic playbook. However, he's losing and he knows it. That doesn't mean he can't win, but he needs the media help and a black swan event along with massive voter suppression to win.

 

Nzinga

Lover of Africa
BGOL Investor
And they're still not releasing internal polls. Candidates who dont release internal polls are always losing. And when GOP candidates are releasing polls, they aren't releasing their Presidential race polling.
I sincerely pray that it is so. I just saw an article from Newsweek saying his
hysterical RNC did not help Trump, his approval has dipped, and he is still
trailing Biden. Unless Trump can do something about Covid, I am not sure
he can talk himself out of this
 

Spectrum

Rising Star
BGOL Investor
Honestly I'm only worried about ramped up suppression efforts, lack of controls over it, and just the compete and total fool I know this nigga gon act over the next two months.
A GOP candidate has lost suburban white women and the fucking military! He's finished. That's why he's going to burn it all down... the Post Office, National Intelligence so that they can't report on foreign interference in the election... nigga even talking about canceling the election! People who are LOSING are the only ones that do that. The media plays the game but this muthafucka knows he's losing.

He's going full autocrat these last two months. He's stirring up violence in swing states so that he can get the national guard there and keep them there. He's stirring up is folks to go to "Dem" cities so that they'll do it on election night and intimated voters. He's gonna do it all. He's an aspiring dictator who doesn't have the popularity to win in a free, open election.

And if he loses, he's going to burn it all down on the way out anyway.

Trump isn't campaigning solely to win. He's campaigning to keep himself and his kids out of prison. He knows the indictments are waiting for him. he'd line up and shoot a million MAGAts personally on 5th avenue if it could keep him out of prison.
 

Spectrum

Rising Star
BGOL Investor
We've seen this movie before. I won't relax until the actual votes are in.



No doubt. But that wasn't with 60 days left. At this point, there were multiple national, reputable polls that had Trump ahead. And there were also 10+ points of undecided voters that went his way after Comey's fuckery. That's not there this year. Biden is over 50%. He'll have to take voters from Biden to win not just get all the undecided voters.
 

doe moe

Rising Star
Platinum Member
Do not open until Election Day: State laws will delay counting mail-in votes in Trump-Biden race


A mail-in ballot cannot be counted until election officials verify that it was returned by a registered voter. The ballot is in an unmarked envelope, which is mailed inside a larger outer envelope with a place for the voter's name and signature. The name and often the signature must be checked against a voter registration database to verify the ballot's authenticity.

If the ballot isn't signed or the signature doesn't match what's on file, the voter can be contacted to resolve the discrepancy. All of that takes time. Once verified, the ballot itself, inside the unmarked envelope, is set aside until the counting begins.

 

Rembrandt Brown

Slider
BGOL Investor
Media is trash. They love him. He keeps people watching politics and that's good for their bottom line. They're gonna sell horse-race politics. he's going to try to cheat using the autocratic playbook. However, he's losing and he knows it. That doesn't mean he can't win, but he needs the media help and a black swan event along with massive voter suppression to win.

Dude, you have a 2016 thread about how Trump had no chance and the media was just selling horse race politics.

Obviously you were wrong then-- I don't see why you're so interested in selling Biden as an overwhelming favorite now.

I was just as wrong as you were in 2016, so I'm not talking shit. But I think the smart approach is to treat the Trump threat as seriously as possible. Biden is not doing as well as a month ago, with lots of polling in the margin of error. I loved all those Biden +10 polls too but regarding this race as a tie is the only way to view it, especially since polling could be historically inaccurate with coronavirus dropoffs before even getting into cheating.

...
All this horse-race shit is just like it was with Obama vs Romney... a circus to keep you watching.
 

Spectrum

Rising Star
BGOL Investor
Dude, you have a 2016 thread about how Trump had no chance and the media was just selling horse race politics.

Obviously you were wrong then-- I don't see why you're so interested in selling Biden as an overwhelming favorite now.

I was just as wrong as you were in 2016, so I'm not talking shit. But I think the smart approach is to treat the Trump threat as seriously as possible. Biden is not doing as well as a month ago, with lots of polling in the margin of error. I loved all those Biden +10 polls too but regarding this race as a tie is the only way to view it, especially since polling could be historically inaccurate with coronavirus dropoffs before even getting into cheating.

...
I was wrong. However, I think Hillary was going to easily win until Comey put his hand on the scale because all the undecided voters went hard to Trump over the last ten days. The polling + exit data illustrates that was the difference. That was a black swan event. Like I said, Trump can still win with a black swan event. He cant win with the same type though because the undecided voter count is WAY smaller.

Saying the Patriots were going to lose at the beginning of the 4th quarter against the Falcons in the Super Bowl a few years back was a good call.
It didn't mean the Pats couldn't win. It means that it was unlikely. It's very unlikely right now. The idea that it's close RIGHT NOW is a myth. And the dynamic with an incumbent being down and then coming back to win w/ 60 days left is unlikely as an incumbent have never gain this type of ground since anyone on this board has been alive. If he pulls it off, he's Brady+Bill and Biden and the Media will need to choke it away. It's unlikely but not impossible. I'm not saying it's impossible. What I am saying is that all day data saying Trump is losing RIGHT NOW.

You can't account for black swan events. if Biden catches the Rona, he might lose. If Trump allows a federal building to get burned down and it turns into a false flag event that helps trump, I can't account for that.

Nigga stop being self-righteous. i didn't say I was negrodamus. I'm saying it's a fact right now, that despite how the media is trying to spin it, that trump is losing and badly.
 
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darth frosty

Dark Lord of the Sith
BGOL Investor
Former Trump chief of staff John Kelly says telling the president that things he wanted to do were illegal was like 'French kissing a chainsaw'
mfriel@businessinsider.com (Mikhaila Friel)
August 31, 2020, 7:41 AM EDT

President Donald Trump and John Kelly in 2017.
SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images
  • The former White House chief of staff John Kelly had a vivid simile for the experience of refusing President Donald Trump's requests, according to an upcoming book.
  • The book, "Donald Trump v. The United States," said that Kelly, a former Marine Corps general, has said that having to say no to Trump "was like 'French kissing a chainsaw,'" per an Axios report.
  • "Kelly has told others that Trump wanted to behave like an authoritarian and repeatedly had to be restrained and told what he could and could not legally do," the book says, according to Axios.
  • Neither Kelly nor Trump has responded to the book, which was written by Michael Schmidt, a correspondent for The New York Times.
  • The White House did not immediately respond to Business Insider's request for comment for this article.
  • Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.
The former White House chief of staff John Kelly has said that having to refuse President Donald Trump's requests "was like 'French kissing a chainsaw,'" according to a new book.

"Donald Trump v. The United States: Inside the Struggle to Stop a President" by the New York Times correspondent Michael Schmidt is due to be released on Tuesday. The book's synopsis describes it as the story of Trump "and the officials of his own government who tried to stop him."


"Kelly has told others that Trump wanted to behave like an authoritarian and repeatedly had to be restrained and told what he could and could not legally do," the book says, according to Axios.

It continued: "Aside from questions of the law, Kelly has told others that one of the most difficult tasks he faced with Trump was trying to stop him from pulling out of NATO — a move that Trump has repeatedly threatened but never made good on, which would have been a seismic breach of American alliances and an extraordinary gift to Putin."

Kelly, a former Marine Corps general, was the secretary of homeland security before serving as the White House chief of staff from July 2017 to January 2019. His departure came after reports that he and Trump were no longer on speaking terms.

Neither the White House nor Kelly has commented on the book, which, according to its synopsis, used "secret FBI and White House documents and confidential sources inside federal law enforcement and the West Wing" in its reporting.
 

blackbull1970

The Black Bastard
BGOL Investor
Don’t go believing the polls.

Hillary was around double digit lead in Sept 2016 going right into Election Day in the polls.

It’s one of the reasons she got low turnout for the election cuz majority of folks believed the narrative “Ain’t nobody gonna vote for that fool”.

Another thing that is not being discussed in the media are the Trump supporters who did not vote in 2016 cuz they honestly thought nobody was gonna vote for him and he had no chance of winning.

Now that they see he won, they will be out in full force this November to vote for him.

VOTE OR DIE!!!
 

Spectrum

Rising Star
BGOL Investor
Another thing that is not being discussed in the media are the Trump supporters who did not vote in 2016 cuz they honestly thought nobody was gonna vote for him and he had no chance of winning.
You have any data on this? That's a new one. I'm serious too. I'm not doubting you. I just want to know if you have something on this so that I can read up.
 

veritech

Black Votes Matter!
BGOL Investor
Media is trash. They love him. He keeps people watching politics and that's good for their bottom line. They're gonna sell horse-race politics. he's going to try to cheat using the autocratic playbook. However, he's losing and he knows it. That doesn't mean he can't win, but he needs the media help and a black swan event along with massive voter suppression to win.

thanks for keeping up the good fight @Spectrum

you are doing excellent work.

BMOB STAND UP!
 
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