QB: Drew Brees, Joe Flacco
RB: C.J. Anderson, Chris Ivory, Jonathan Stewart, Alfred Blue
WR: Brandin Cooks, Sammy Watkins, Steve Smith, Terrance Williams, Steve Johnson
TE: Rob Gronkowski
PK: Mason Crosby
TD: Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens
Overview:
Old school!
We like your overall strength at the traditionally less important positions, but make no mistake about it: this team is about strength at the running back position. And we think it will be among the top teams in the league. Somewhere Marshall Faulk is smiling.
Nonetheless, we'd be remiss if we didn't at least mention the relative lack of strength at quarterback and receiver. These are usually survivable weaknesses, but we'd feel better if we knew you were committed to zealously scouring the waiver wire for this year's emergent players at QB and WR. Getting a breakout player at one or both of those positions would take your already-good team to the next level.
Bottom line:
With great inseason management, we think you have about a 80 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 70 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 54 percent chance of making the playoffs.
QB Summary:
We have Drew Brees rated #12 among quarterbacks, which makes him a viable starter if not an exciting one. And we're not crazy about Joe Flacco (ranked #22 among quarterbacks) as a backup. If Brees turns in the season we expect, this position won't ruin you, but it probably won't be a strength either. And if things go wrong, it could be a long year at QB.
Incidentally, Flacco has what we project as a neutral matchup (STL) during Brees's bye.
RB Summary:
Your starting running back group is a strength, particularly C.J. Anderson as a top running back. Our projections have Anderson ranked fifth and Chris Ivory ranked 18th.
Your bench also looks good. Tough to do better than Jonathan Stewart at RB3. We also see Alfred Blue as an above average RB4.
WR Summary:
We like Sammy Watkins as a second WR, but we consider your starting receivers, as a group, to be a little below par. Brandin Cooks is our 14th ranked WR, Watkins is #16, and we have Steve Smith 39th.
Your bench looks good and should help offset the unexciting starting unit. Terrance Williams should be a good fourth receiver. Steve Johnson should also be solidly above average at WR5.
TE Summary:
As you are well aware, Rob Gronkowski is an elite tight end. We have him ranked first overall at the position. He's about 4.3 points per game better than an average starting TE in this league. Given your league rules and the presence of Gronkowski, your decision to roll with just one tight end is a reasonable one.
Kicker Summary:
With Mason Crosby, you should be above average at the position.
Defense Summary:
We think the Bills are the #1 defense in the league, at about 0.9 points per game above average. You probably don't need a backup.
