Bombings: London, Lebanon & Egypt = Global Offensive ???

[QueEx]

<font size="6"><center>Egyptian Red Sea Bombings</font size></center>

STRAFOR
Breaking Intelligence Report
July 22, 2005


Egypt: Red Sea Resort Bombings

At least two car bombs exploded in the Egyptian Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh and nearby Naama Bay hotels resort area at around 1 a.m. local time July 23. Initial reports indicate at least 20 dead and more than 100 wounded.

The bombings come close on the heels of the July 7 and 21 London bombings and the July 22 Beirut bombing. Taken individually, each operation has local characteristics that appear separate from one another. Stepping back, however, it becomes clear that there is a global offensive under way by militant forces -- whether specifically arranged by a single core leadership or not.

We can no longer ignore a global upsurge of operations by al Qaeda and like-minded militants. The U.S. and international offensive against al Qaeda and other Islamist militants <u>is now facing a widespread counterattack; further attacks will follow</u>.


Egypt: Al Qaeda Prime Red Sea Bombing Suspect

Five -- perhaps as many as seven -- explosions rocked the Egyptian Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh on July 22. So far, reports indicate that at least 30 people have died and more than 110 have been wounded.

The large-scale coordination of the attacks and the targeting of resorts where a large number of Westerners -- particularly Israelis, Europeans and Arabs -- vacation signals the work of al Qaeda prime supported by a local jihadist group in Egypt. Local affiliated groups have not struck in such a significant attack since the Luxor attacks of 1997. Sunny weather, clear blue water and coral reefs draw European and Israeli tourists to resorts in the Sharm el-Sheikh area. The area, on the tip of the Sinai Peninsula, is one of the few parts of the Egyptian tourist industry that did not suffer from the effects of the November 1997 Luxor attack, which killed 34 people and injured more than 100. Although it was not hit hard by the Luxor attacks, it certainly will suffer a good degree of economic backlash following the bombings. The most likely suspect is a revived Egyptian Islamic Jihad, which has been affiliated with al Qaeda since 1998 and has been headed by al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri.

The bombings are the bloodiest such incident since 34 people, including several Israeli tourists, were killed in triple bombings against Taba and two other Sinai resorts last October. Although al Qaeda has succeeded in inciting a decent degree of backlash from Islamist circles for the recent crackdowns in Europe since the July 7 London bombings, the level of coordination required for this attack indicates this was planned far in advance.

Sharm al-Sheikh is seen as the place where the Arab leaders are viewed by radical Islamists as conspiring against the Arab/Muslim countries with the West and Israel, as it is a location of many high-level summits, some of which have focused primarily on counter-terrorism efforts.

Send questions or comments on this article to analysis@stratfor.com

 

[Greed]

seems like there is always shock everytime new evidence pops up that this is really a world war.

 

[daghost05]

seems like there is always shock everytime new evidence pops up that this is really a world war.

Couldn't have set it better myself...niggaz act like this is news...

These mfukers is str8 loose cannons and best believe, every time they blow some shit up in Egypt or London, or wherever...they'd prefer to have each explosion here but Killer Cracka Bush got the boys all over the world huntin' these niggaz the fuk down b4 they try some shit here...that's why I support that dumb bastard cauz he don't give a motherfuk what people say...

 

[QueEx]

<font size="6"><center>US, Britain, Egypt and Israel Are Lost for
Answers to Mounting al Qaeda Offensive</font size></center>

DEBKAfile Special Analysis
July 23, 2005, 2:46 PM (GMT+02:00)

Al Qaeda’s first coordinated bomb attacks on London’s public transport which shocked Britain on July 7 were mounted at the same time as the G8 summit in Scotland. The death toll rose to 56 with 700 wounded and an unknown number of victims still missing. The Islamists not only directed their destructive urge against London, but addressed a graphic threat to the 20 leaders of the world’s industrialized nations headed by US president George W. Bush who were meeting at Gleneagles. Since the failed September 11 2001 attempt to bomb the White House, this was the closest al Qaeda terrorists had come to key Western leaders gathered in one place.

Yet, strangely enough, all those leaders lined up to consign the attack to the British arena, as though it came from problems in British-Muslim relations rather than being an assault on the West.

The string of bombings at Egypt’s Red Sea resort of Sharm al Sheikh July 23, two days after the second round of London bombings, also coincided with the Middle East trip of the US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice to Jerusalem and Ramallah. (She popped over to Beirut in between.)

Here too there was method in al Qaeda’s timing.

The distance between London and Gleneagles is comparable to the distance between Rice’s Jerusalem hotel and the Egyptian Red Sea resort. Al Qaeda chose its moment to devastate the Sharm paradise when the US, Britain, Egypt and Israel were immersed in an intense effort to clear away obstacles to Ariel Sharon’s evacuation of Israelis from the Gaza Strip and northern West Bank, and make sure it will be free of Palestinian terrorist violence.

By hitting Sharm al Sheikh, Osama bin Laden hammered home to Egyptian, British, American and Israeli leaders: We are now sitting on your doorstep. Get Sharon’s plan off the ground and you will find us entrenched on the map of Sinai next door to the Gaza Strip. In October 2004, we landed in northern Sinai, blowing up the Taba Hilton on the Egyptian-Israeli border and other resorts and killing 34 people including 13 Israelis. Now we have arrived at the southern tip of the Sinai Peninsula, Sharm al-Sheikh. The Gaza Strip is our next destination. Just as our fighting men reached Iraq from all over the Middle East and the Muslim world, nothing will stop us pouring into the Gaza Strip from Egypt the moment Israel hands the border crossing over to the Egyptians and the Palestinians. We will then be in forward bases for fighting Israel, Egypt and the Palestinian Authority just as we fight the Americans in Iraq.

Al Qaeda makes no secret of its plans. It is looking forward to the free ride to its first Mediterranean base afforded by the Israeli prime minister’s much-praised evacuation-disengagement plan, which goes into effect from mid-August. The terrorist group will also win a springboard to Israel and Europe across the water.

Yet the only controversy in Israel over the pros and cons of the pull-back operation is confined to the domestic, political plane, the dispute between so-called “right” and “left”. Even the arguments put forward by its most avid opponents lack strategic depth.

Washington and London, aside from certain anti-terror experts, are blind to the fact that by exiting from Gaza, Israel will open the Mediterranean basin to al Qaeda’s spreading campaign of terror. They are pushing Israel and the Palestinians as hard as they can to make sure that Gaza’s handover takes place. Rice arrived post-haste to make sure the revival of Hamas suicide attacks would not delay the operation and that the Israeli government stays squarely on course for the home run.

American and British spokesman keep on reiterating that Israel’s first evacuation of complete communities will, as day follows night, cool the flames of Middle East terrorism – Palestinian and Iraqi alike. They insist that the more land Israeli cedes - on the West Bank too - the faster terrorist violence will disappear.

The facts on the ground in London, Baghdad and Egypt in a single week fly in the face of this theory. As the date of the pull-back draws near, the flames of Islamic violence climb higher. This should be no surprise to any Western or Israeli decision-makers following al Qaeda’s broadcast messages. The group claiming the Sharm el-Sheikh bombings, for instance calls itself the Abdullah Azzam Brigades of Egypt and the Levant (Syria and Lebanon). It is named for the Palestinian terror ideologue who was Osama bin Laden’s early mentor in 1986-1987.

The name is a pointer to the Palestinian link and the countries targeted. The timing of the attack rounds off the picture of al Qaeda’s motivation. Al Qaeda has never concealed its long term operational strategy. But its operational plans have been hidden well enough to miss being thwarted by the counter-terror agencies.

In the article in the opposite column, DEBKA-Net-Weekly and DEBKAfile’s terrorism experts offer new information on how al Qaeda is getting organized for action in the Middle East. The world Islamist organization is now active not only in Sinai south of Israel, but also in Jordan across from the Jewish state’s heartland, in the north in the Levant and among the Palestinians who live cheek to jowl with Israelis.

Israeli officials are so busy second-guessing Hamas and trying to decide whether the radical Muslim group will shoot or hold its fire during the pull-backs that no one thinks of asking what will happen after it is over, when Al Qaeda’s bombers move over from Iraq – and from Sinai - to join forces with the Hamas and likeminded Palestinian terror groups sworn to destroy Israel - the Jihad Islami, and the radical Palestinian fronts.

The blueprints drawn up in Washington, Jerusalem, Cairo and London, for securing the evacuations and their aftermath provide American, British and Egyptian assistance for setting up Palestinian intelligence and security bodies untainted by terrorism.

This plan looks impressive – until it is examined in the light of the latest events in London and Egypt.

It may be recalled that five years ago, DEBKAfile’s analysts predicted in its first editions that a Palestinian-Israel war would erupt by the end of that year, 2001.

Four and a half years ago, the first issues of DEBKA-Net-Weekly warned that Osama bin Laden was preparing an attack in America and named New York’s Twin Towers.

Two years ago, just before the US-led invasion of Iraq, we reported that Saddam Hussein, his sons and the Baath leadership were preparing a vicious guerrilla campaign against American forces.

Now, in July 2005, DEBKAfile’s counter-terror analysts believe that, as soon as the last Israeli leaves the Gaza Strip towards the end of the year, and the northern West Bank in early 2006, al Qaeda’s networks will move in.

http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1060

 

[Gods_Favorite]

seems like there is always shock everytime new evidence pops up that this is really a world war.

Yup.

 

[QueEx]

<font size="5"><center>Middle East Warnings and the Current Attack Cycle</font size></center>

STRATFOR
Intelligence Brief
August 10, 2005

The U.S., Australian, British and Canadian governments have issued a string of warnings since July 20 regarding possible terrorist activity in the Middle East, specifically Saudi Arabia. Moreover, the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh was closed as a security precaution Aug. 8-9. In the past, warnings have been followed either by arrests, a shootout with militants or a terrorist attack somewhere on the Arabian Peninsula.

The U.S. Embassy in Riyadh announced July 20 that militants were planning new attacks in Saudi Arabia. On Aug. 4, the U.S. State Department updated its general warning against possible terrorist attacks in the region. U.S. authorities then closed the embassy in Riyadh for two days. The British Foreign Ministry and with the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade also recently warned their citizens to leave the kingdom or take extra precautions, while the Canadian Embassy in Riyadh also issued a warning. U.S. State Department officials have said they believe the target to be a U.S. government facility.

The Arabian Peninsula has been relatively quiet in recent months -- some would say too quiet. Al Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula usually goes in to a lull over the summer as many Western expatriates return to their home countries to escape the brutal Arabian heat. In addition, a series of heavy blows dealt to the jihadist network by Saudi security forces have forced it to enter a period of reorganization. This pattern, however, can be broken for any number of reasons, including the introduction of new leadership or the need to act sooner rather than later as a result of increased pressure on the militants from security forces.

The last major terrorist attack occurred in December 2004, when militants belonging to al Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula attacked the Saudi Interior Ministry. In March, a suicide bomber staged a smaller attack against a theater in Doha, Qatar, killing one British expatriate. In April, Saudi security forces scored a major victory against al Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula when eight militants, including two suspected leaders of al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia, Saud bin Hammoud al-Otaibi and Abdel Karim al-Majati, were killed in a two-day gunbattle in the small town of Al Ras, some 200 miles north of Riyadh. Since the Al Ras battle, al Qaeda has had time to regroup and reconstitute itself in Saudi Arabia, and could be ready to resume attacks against Western targets.

Attacks against the Arabian Peninsula have followed a pattern since May 2004, when militants in the Saudi oil and petrochemical city of Yanbu attacked the office of Swiss-based ABB Lummus Global engineering firm, killing at least five employees, all reportedly Westerners, including two from the United States. Initially, a Western government will issue or update a warning or travel advisory citing a non-specific threat in the region. As the attack draws nearer, more specific warnings usually are issued by embassies and multinational corporations advising expatriates to exercise increased caution or to leave the country altogether. In some cases, multinationals issue their own warnings unilaterally and take precautions based on information they obtain independently. After the warnings are issued, either the attack occurs, or Saudi security forces expose the terrorist cell in its final stages of its attack and make arrests or engage them in battle. In the November 2004 Jeddah case, for example, U.S. and Saudi intelligence and security officials had received indications in advance of a possible attack. As a result, one cell was discovered and eliminated in advance, leaving the other to attempt the attack on its own.

This pattern was observed most recently in the Doha bombing, which occurred five days after the U.S. State Department warned of an impending attack. If the pattern holds true, the current cycle -- from warnings to action -- is about two-thirds complete. Although the U.S. government closed its embassy in Saudi Arabia and the British, Australian and Canadian governments are echoing Washington's concerns about Saudi Arabia, the actual attack -- or the pre-emptive arrests or strike -- could occur anywhere on the Arabian Peninsula, such as Qatar, the United Arab Emirates or Bahrain.

Unlike other regions, there have been relatively few false alarms concerning al Qaeda attacks in Saudi Arabia. When indicators are received that prompt governments to issue warnings and companies to take precautions, they usually are correct.

 

[CAPTAIN]

seems like there is always shock everytime new evidence pops up that this is really a world war.

LMBAO! No you didn't! Many a Bushmites here have called the accusation of a World War as a result of this invasion a "Sky is falling" democrat conspiracy. This will be another Vietnam, no said the Bushmites. Thirty US soldiers dead in a month, no Vietnam, but damn sure isn't over, not even close when the enemy is getting better. Anytime a superior force is in a drawn-out battle with an inferior force, the inferior force is learning to fight at a superior level.

No GREED, this is not a world war, its just a bunch of terrorist that we would take care of in a few months, remember. In fact isn't the war declared over by Bush? LMBAO! As crazy as it is, pure comedy.

 

[Greed]

interesting take on sometthing no one said. interesting indeed.