Coronavirus math says 1.4 million Americans will die this year? Or am I missing something

[babygwirl18]

Just read an article from the top epidemiologist at Harvard, who along with 2 other scientists say that 40-70% of the worlds population will “likely” get Covid this year.

Harvard scientist: coronavirus pandemic likely will infect 40-70% of world this year

A Harvard epidemiologist calls a global COVID-19 pandemic ‘likely’ while CDC doctors say they are bracing for it to spread beyond the current 15 cases in the US

thehill.com

If they’re right, and there is a 1% death rate in the disease. Doesn’t that mean that 1.4 million Americans will die?

My math is 40% (the low estimate) times 350 million Americans times 1 percent. I realize that the death rate may be lower, but so far that’s what the numbers tell us.

If this is true, why any anyone sounding the alarm?

 

[Deezz]

I hear those numbers being tossed around as well. There is no way in hell that many people will die by the end of the year of COVID-19.

 

[Hotlantan]

If this is true, why any anyone sounding the alarm?

Your "just read" article says there are only 15 current cases in the US.
Are you the first one on BGOL to think we need to sound the alarm?

 

[killagram]

Gonna watch this here.. brah

 

[babygwirl18]

Your "just read" article says there are only 15 current cases in the US.
Are you the first one on BGOL to think we need to sound the alarm?

It’s an old article, so at the time it was written, there were only 15 cases. But their analysis still stands, I think.

 

[easy_b]

Very interesting from what’s going on in New York in New Orleans this is very very possible

 

[therealjondoe]

Wait till you read the article about the shortages that will eventually hit...

 

[Princenubian]

Just read an article from the top epidemiologist at Harvard, who along with 2 other scientists say that 40-70% of the worlds population will “likely” get Covid this year.

Harvard scientist: coronavirus pandemic likely will infect 40-70% of world this year

A Harvard epidemiologist calls a global COVID-19 pandemic ‘likely’ while CDC doctors say they are bracing for it to spread beyond the current 15 cases in the US

thehill.com

If they’re right, and there is a 1% death rate in the disease. Doesn’t that mean that 1.4 million Americans will die?

My math is 40% (the low estimate) times 350 million Americans times 1 percent. I realize that the death rate may be lower, but so far that’s what the numbers tell us.

If this is true, why any anyone sounding the alarm?

I hear those numbers being tossed around as well. There is no way in hell that many people will die by the end of the year of COVID-19.

Wait till you read the article about the shortages that will eventually hit...

That’s about right provided there’s no mitigation.

Influenza(flu) has a mortality rate of about 0.1% and Covid-19 is 10X more lethal w a mortality rate of 1%.

Here in NY they talk of flattening the curve which is merely slowing the spread of the virus.

If this can be done the hospital system won’t be overwhelmed which means better treatment and time to test therapeutics.

We still haven’t gotten any concrete data on reinfection. If there is reinfection we’re screwed. So far no evidence there is.

Vaccines are too far away to help. By mid April the next chapter will be written. Happy ending vs horror story. We’ll see.

Carry on......

 

[Louis Koo]

based on the slow state by state quarantine, the number is going to be exponentially higher.


also, how the fuck did rural areas get it?

 

[Amajorfucup]

also, how the fuck did rural areas get it?

From you filthy new yorkers fleeing that rat hole and contaminating the rest of society.

 

[zod16]

Normalcy bias is why most people still aren't panicked yet. The idea of a virus more contagious than the flu and also 10X more lethal sounds like a movie instead of real life. I also think that most people in the US don't understand how shitty our overall healthcare setup is compared to other countries...

 

[Deezz]

Normalcy bias is why most people still aren't panicked yet. The idea of a virus more contagious than the flu and also 10X more lethal sounds like a movie instead of real life. I also think that most people in the US don't understand how shitty our overall healthcare setup is compared to other countries...

This....

We all know how serious this is, but when I go to the grocery store, everyone is right up on each other and the cashiers don't have any protection on.
The image below really sums it up for me.

 

[zod16]

This....

We all know how serious this is, but when I go to the grocery store, everyone is right up on each other and the cashiers don't have any protection on.
The image below really sums it up for me.

My wife thought I was overreacting until a few weeks ago when I showed her the number of flu deaths and explained that we don't have a vaccine or any therapeutic for this shit and it is 10x more lethal. We should have more deaths from this than from 9/11 by Monday but we still have a good 40% of the country calling it the "flu".

 

[tallblacknyc]

From you filthy new yorkers fleeing that rat hole and contaminating the rest of society.

That mumbo sauce from the Chinese restaurant will prob kill most of dc.. Enjoy your chicken wings and French fries

 

[tallblacknyc]

From you filthy new yorkers fleeing that rat hole and contaminating the rest of society.

speaking of rat holes let's talk about dc

Washington DC In Top 5 Most Rat-Infested Cities: Orkin List

Washington, D.C., made no progress in the last year, and remains in the top 5 on Orkin's list of "Rattiest Cities."

patch.com

There's tons of articles about dc and rats

Rats, mumbo sauce, and vanilla city(gentrification) oh my

 

[Amajorfucup]

That mumbo sauce from the Chinese restaurant will prob kill most of dc.. Enjoy your chicken wings and French fries

Hey man, dont lash out at me.. This is what im hearing on my TV from various state governors and New Yorks very own, Donald J Trump. Dont shoot the messenger brother.

speaking of rat holes let's talk about dc

Washington DC In Top 5 Most Rat-Infested Cities: Orkin List

Washington, D.C., made no progress in the last year, and remains in the top 5 on Orkin's list of "Rattiest Cities."

patch.com

Did you see who ranked ahead of The District?

 

[BrownTurd]

Just read an article from the top epidemiologist at Harvard, who along with 2 other scientists say that 40-70% of the worlds population will “likely” get Covid this year.

Harvard scientist: coronavirus pandemic likely will infect 40-70% of world this year

A Harvard epidemiologist calls a global COVID-19 pandemic ‘likely’ while CDC doctors say they are bracing for it to spread beyond the current 15 cases in the US

thehill.com

If they’re right, and there is a 1% death rate in the disease. Doesn’t that mean that 1.4 million Americans will die?

My math is 40% (the low estimate) times 350 million Americans times 1 percent. I realize that the death rate may be lower, but so far that’s what the numbers tell us.

If this is true, why any anyone sounding the alarm?

It depends on a few factors. The more people who get the virus and recover, the less transmissions you will have.

 

[ansatsusha_gouki]

My wife thought I was overreacting until a few weeks ago when I showed her the number of flu deaths and explained that we don't have a vaccine or any therapeutic for this shit and it is 10x more lethal. We should have more deaths from this than from 9/11 by Monday but we still have a good 40% of the country calling it the "flu".

I just shake my head when people see all this death and act like it's no big deal..And then want to look at you like you're the crazy one....

 

[Famous1]

Just read an article from the top epidemiologist at Harvard, who along with 2 other scientists say that 40-70% of the worlds population will “likely” get Covid this year.

Harvard scientist: coronavirus pandemic likely will infect 40-70% of world this year

A Harvard epidemiologist calls a global COVID-19 pandemic ‘likely’ while CDC doctors say they are bracing for it to spread beyond the current 15 cases in the US

thehill.com

If they’re right, and there is a 1% death rate in the disease. Doesn’t that mean that 1.4 million Americans will die?

My math is 40% (the low estimate) times 350 million Americans times 1 percent. I realize that the death rate may be lower, but so far that’s what the numbers tell us.

If this is true, why any anyone sounding the alarm?

You don't watch the news do you?

 

[Walter Panov]

Just read an article from the top epidemiologist at Harvard, who along with 2 other scientists say that 40-70% of the worlds population will “likely” get Covid this year.

Harvard scientist: coronavirus pandemic likely will infect 40-70% of world this year

A Harvard epidemiologist calls a global COVID-19 pandemic ‘likely’ while CDC doctors say they are bracing for it to spread beyond the current 15 cases in the US

thehill.com

If they’re right, and there is a 1% death rate in the disease. Doesn’t that mean that 1.4 million Americans will die?

My math is 40% (the low estimate) times 350 million Americans times 1 percent. I realize that the death rate may be lower, but so far that’s what the numbers tell us.

If this is true, why any anyone sounding the alarm?

This is from Feb 15 and the epidemiologist was pulling numbers out his ass. There's no math behind this. Having said that, yes its possible for 1.4 million Americans to die eventually from covid19. The virus is not going away this year.

 

[kirkout]

That mumbo sauce from the Chinese restaurant will prob kill most of dc.. Enjoy your chicken wings and French fries

Go head, man. Lol.

I just shake my head when people see all this death and act like it's no big deal..And then want to look at you like you're the crazy one....

I had a conversation with this white guy working at a store yesterday, with my mask on. I asked him if he was keeping up with the virus in the county we live in. He was like, “I don’t keep up with it and I am not on social media”. Then he was like, “if you going to get it, you’re going to get it”. Then he said, “it’s just like the flu and 18,000 people die each year from the flu and nobody wants to talk about that” (by this time my mouth was agape under my mask). Then he said, “80% of the people who get it will have mild symptoms”. I was floored with what he just said. I just shook my head and told him to be safe.

Apparently, he was still listening to that right-wing propaganda bullshit. That bullshit is going to get people killed. Smh.

What worries me is that these type ignorant people are stubborn with their brand of bullshit.They’re in a high risk situation and if they come in contact with it and get it, then they will unwittingly infect other people, because they maybe asymptomatic. You really have to protect yourself from the ignorance that is out here about this virus figuratively and literally.

 

[babydaddy]

Go head, man. Lol.

I had a conversation with this white guy working at a store yesterday, with my mask on. I asked him if he was keeping up with the virus in the county we live in. He was like, “I don’t keep up with it and I am not on social media”. Then he was like, “if you going to get it, you’re going to get it”. Then he said, “it’s just like the flu and 18,000 people die each year from the flu and nobody wants to talk about that” (by this time my mouth was agape under my mask). Then he said, “80% of the people who get it will have mild symptoms”. I was floored with what he just said. I just shook my head and told him to be safe.

Apparently, he was still listening to that right-wing propaganda bullshit. That bullshit is going to get people killed. Smh.

What worries me is that these type ignorant people are stubborn with their brand of bullshit.They’re in a high risk situation and if they come in contact with it and get it, then they will unwittingly infect other people, because they maybe asymptomatic. You really have to protect yourself from the ignorance that is out here about this virus figuratively and literally.

My landlord sounds just like this guy you was talking to. He is a white in his 60's said CV19 was overhyped and it is just flu.

 

[bgbtylvr]

A million worldwide for sure, but we’ll never get an accurate number on that. 100k in US—easily. It’s doubling every 48 hours.

 

[PussyMan]

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/28/europe/italy-coronavirus-cases-surpass-china-intl/index.html

 

[PussyMan]

Respiratory viruses

Respiratory viruses such as influenza, SARS-CoV-2 and RSV cause colds. The risk of severe illness can be reduced by having the appropriate vaccinations for the flu or COVID-19 in autumn.

www.bag.admin.ch

 

[PussyMan]

Coronavirus Dashboard

Live coronavirus dashboard tracker. See data, maps, social media trends, and learn about prevention measures.

ncov2019.live

 

[PussyMan]

Updated every minute, 17-year-old whiz kid’s coronavirus site used by millions

A self-taught computer maven from Seattle, Avi Schiffmann uses web scraping technology to accurately report on developing pandemic, while fighting misinformation and panic

www.timesofisrael.com

 

[Helico-pterFunk]

Be safe, everyone. All the best to you and your loved ones across the board.

 

[BigDaddyBuk]

Three months into this pandemic, scientists are coming to understand the novel coronavirus. They know, for example, that as horrible as this virus is, it is not the worst, most apocalyptic virus imaginable. Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, is not as contagious as measles, and although it is very dangerous, it is not as likely to kill an infected person as, say, Ebola.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/three-months-into-the-pandemic-here-is-what-we-know-about-the-coronavirus/2020/03/28/6646f502-6eab-11ea-b148-e4ce3fbd85b5_story.html?outputType=amp

 

[BigDaddyBuk]

Three months into this pandemic, scientists are coming to understand the novel coronavirus. They know, for example, that as horrible as this virus is, it is not the worst, most apocalyptic virus imaginable. Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, is not as contagious as measles, and although it is very dangerous, it is not as likely to kill an infected person as, say, Ebola.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/three-months-into-the-pandemic-here-is-what-we-know-about-the-coronavirus/2020/03/28/6646f502-6eab-11ea-b148-e4ce3fbd85b5_story.html?outputType=amp

And the entire population WONT be infected by this virus.

Right now with roughly 125000 known infections in the US there are about 2250 deaths.

 

[tallblacknyc]

And the entire population WONT be infected by this virus.

Right now with roughly 125000 known infections in the US there are about 2250 deaths.

125,000 infections in 4 months with a population of 330+ million people... That's not even 33 percent of 1 percent... This is the number people really need to understand... Not even half of 1 percent of Americans are affected by this.. That is literally laughed at by the plague gods... Corona couldn't even sit at the baby chair of plagues.. Flu even looking at corona like "seats taken" when corona tried to sit down next to him

 

[slewdem100]

Three months into this pandemic, scientists are coming to understand the novel coronavirus. They know, for example, that as horrible as this virus is, it is not the worst, most apocalyptic virus imaginable. Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, is not as contagious as measles, and although it is very dangerous, it is not as likely to kill an infected person as, say, Ebola.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/three-months-into-the-pandemic-here-is-what-we-know-about-the-coronavirus/2020/03/28/6646f502-6eab-11ea-b148-e4ce3fbd85b5_story.html?outputType=amp

Honestly, I think the state of our healthcare system will be a contributing factor to most of the deaths....not enough equipment to test etc....I also think underestimating the shit at the beginning helped to spread it....people in power scared to shut down shit that they had to shutdown weeks later any way

South Korea seems to have a handle on it....Germany too....China seems to have gotten past the worst if their numbers are to be trusted....Japan's situation is just weird to me (are the numbers really that low or are they just not testing)...are we more similar to South Korea/ Germany or are we more similar to Italy/ Spain?....lots of countries getting exposed for not being ready for something that everybody knew was gonna happen one day....only difference is, most of these countries don't go around saying they are the greatest country on Earth...greed is the underlying factor behind the crisis that is happening here in the USA...the means to deal with COVID 19 are certainly here

 

[slewdem100]

125,000 infections in 4 months with a population of 330+ million people... That's not even 33 percent of 1 percent... This is the number people really need to understand... Not even half of 1 percent of Americans are affected by this.. That is literally laughed at by the plague gods... Corona couldn't even sit at the baby chair of plagues.. Flu even looking at corona like "seats taken" when corona tried to sit down next to him

That number is increasing fast even with tons of people self quarantining...flu shouldn't diss corona just yet

 

[Quek9]

Normalcy bias is why most people still aren't panicked yet. The idea of a virus more contagious than the flu and also 10X more lethal sounds like a movie instead of real life. I also think that most people in the US don't understand how shitty our overall healthcare setup is compared to other countries...

These cacs gonna wish they had some Obamacare.

 

[tallblacknyc]

That number is increasing fast even with tons of people self quarantining...flu shouldn't diss corona just yet

Flu usually has more victims in less time and more casualities.. Flu game so great it made millions worldwide take a shot every yr juss so they won't see them hands

Flu: my name is legendary in these streets..respek my gangsta partner