Welp 
'Batman v Superman' Has Biggest Superhero Opening In History
While Monday morning’s final tally saw a dip in the actual domestic box office receipts, from a $170 million estimate to a $166 million actual, anyone trying to rain on Warner Bros.’
Batman v Superman parade this morning is going to have to do a lot of stretching to frame the opening weekend as anything other than a huge success. With international box office coming in at $254 million,
Batman v Superman now has the record for the biggest superhero movie international opening, and the biggest all-time worldwide opening box office of the superhero genre at $420 million.
Image courtesy Warner Bros
Of all films regardless of genre,
Batman v Superman had the fifth-biggest overseas opening weekend in history, behind only
Jurassic World,
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2,
Star Wars: The Force Awakens, and
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides. Domestically,
Batman v Superman now sits behind
Star Wars: The Force Awakens,
Jurassic World,
The Avengers,
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen,
Avengers: Age of Ultron, and
Iron Man 3.
And here’s a particularly noteworthy number for you — Batman v Superman is the fourth-biggest opening weekend of any kind, ever. The top four largest opening weekends are Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Jurassic World, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, and Batman v Superman. Oh and the $166+ million figure is a new March record, so add that to the list of accomplishments this weekend, too.
Image courtesy Warner Bros
We can split hairs about a few dollars here and there, and could do so about EVERY film if we start down that road of debate — how inflation changes things, how summer releases have better odds, how more movie lead-ins or less changes the equation, and find reasons to discount and dissect ANY other movie’s box office success to claim it isn’t as impressive if we want to always seek conflict and make it more an ideological/personal preference-driven debate than a fair comparison and accounting. At the end of the day, it’s going to be hard to sell a bunch of “yeah, but” or negative narratives about these results. For weeks and months, we’ve listened to one negative rumor after another, seen one negative press/fan site claim after another touting some extreme hyperbole or outright fiction about the film and the studio, and watched as every trailer or marketing decision was second-guessed and complained about on social media and entertainment news articles. There’s also been positive coverage, don’t get me wrong, but I doubt anyone would seriously try to argue that the majority of press buzz for months hasn’t been mixed and involved a lot of handwringing and rumor-mongering.
In the atmosphere of uncertainty, negative rumors and coverage, with a March release date instead of a summer opening, and after brutally negative critical reviews,
Batman v Superman delivered a strong opening topping the freshman weekends for the acclaimed $1 billion Batman movies of the
Dark Knight series, behind only the two
Avengers films and
Iron Man 3 — films that benefited from years of buildup and several advance movie releases setting them up. And while it’s easy for the media to react as if domestic box office is the only thing that matters, the truth is foreign receipts are what will really decide the fate of these films. They certainly decided the opening weekend, and will continue to be the decisive factor in weeks to come.
Image courtesy Warner Bros
At this point, with a $420 million opening and word of repeat-viewing ticket sales nearly one-third above normal, the prospects look good for the film’s final box office cume. While a lot of people are guessing the “B” Cinemascore from audiences will hurt its legs going forward, the devil is in the details — the under-18 and under-25 crowds gave
Batman v Superman higher scores, with the younger group rating it an “A-.” Likewise, word is that parents liked the movie and are recommending it to other parents. If the teenage crowd and parents with children rate the film higher and want to see it again, that bodes well for weekdays as schools let out for spring break over the next few weeks while
Batman v Superman faces no real competition from other new releases targeting the same demographics.
A film opening to a record-setting global box office for superhero films, setting a new March record, with a few weeks without competition during spring break, and with kids and parents giving it the highest scores and recommending it to other kids and parents, should be able to get a 2.4x multiplier leading to a final box office in the $1 billion range. It should enter next weekend with about $500+/- million worldwide, and then add another $170+/- million in total sales for the second weekend of release, for a grand total of somewhere between about $650-700 million by close of business Sunday.
Man of Steel, the predecessor to
Batman v Superman, had a 61% drop on its second weekend amid mixed reviews and the nearly $150 million combined challenge from
Monsters University and
World War Z. It went on to a 2.49x multiplier despite multiple big summer releases dropping each successive weekend.
The Dark Knight Rises had a 2.78x multiplier, facing steady competition from other new and repeating films in the marketplace. But
Rises’competition wasn’t as formidable as was
Man of Steel’s, obviously. The point is that even if
Batman v Superman has a multiplier lower than
Man of Steel, it can still top $1 billion, and the prospects of that happening are much better when the field ahead is empty for a few weeks and the crucial teen and parent demographics are keen on the film.
We’ll see how it holds this week and the week after, as different schools are out for spring break. Softer weekdays and a decline too far north of 60+% would mean it winds up on the lower side of total box office potential, perhaps finishing next weekend with $620-630 million in the bank. But if it has good weekday attendance and then a decent hold, and if foreign box office is once again ahead of expectations, then I think it’ll perform closer to the $680+ million end of estimates.
Zack Snyder starts shooting
Justice League: Part 1 in two weeks, so in the aftermath of so much negative rumors and critical backlash against the film (which I obviously strongly disagree with, and which I feel completely misses the boat on major themes and narrative arcs in the film) Warner must be quite happy that
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice kicked off its release with huge box office returns and appears on pace for a healthy weekday run and good second weekend. Should the film wind up on the lower end of expectations, it’s still on track for a $900+ million opening, and the concerns that it might not be able to top $800 million should be safely put to rest at this point.
Meanwhile,
Justice League has already been scripted and prepped, and was always leaning toward a much more comic-like “live-action superhero cartoon” feel, according to what I was told weeks ago about the project. Not that it’ll abandon the grounding and serious themes of
Man of Steel and
Batman v Superman, but just as
Batman v Superman took this whole shared cinematic world another step toward the fantastical stylings of DC Comics,
Justice Leaguewill be another big leap in that direction and mixes a lot more of the various tones and attitudes represented by the various characters.
I’ll have more about
Batman v Superman all week, including an article directly addressing some of the common claims and complaints about the film, some more box office updates, and extended interviews with director Zack Snyder, producer Deborah Snyder, and producer Charles Roven. So be sure to check back soon! Meanwhile, what’s your reaction to the record-breaking opening box office of
Batman v Superman, dear readers? Sound off in the comments below!
http://www.forbes.com/sites/markhug...st-superhero-opening-in-history/#5e5addf4419c
